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Racing Uncertainties

[Deleted User]

I am starting this with the intention of posting selections for Horse Racing.

Nowt is certain in this game. Hence the title.

One to start off with.

Wolverhampton 7.15 Zafaranah

Mrs Barclay's Mare had a return to form last week when 2nd at the course over the extended mile. The horse has won before at this time of year, and is twice a Course and Distance winner off ratings higher than what she's assessed at tonight.

Available to back at 15/2 and bigger, I give it an each way chance here. Drawn 9 of 11 aint ideal, but I had no say in the box allocation.

I wish myself the best of luck with my thread, and hope to provide many winners and big priced placers.

That's all for now.

Gluck

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[Deleted User]

8.05 Lingfield Bird For Life 12/1 ew , Pledge Of Peace 20/1 ew

Just 7 go to post here. The three market leaders both like to race prominently/make all; so this should suit Bird For Life. She is often held up, so should not have any trouble in running as the field will probably be thinned out late on. Am hoping she breaks on terms, as can sometimes be slowly away. A C & D winner, and not one for huge trust, but I think the race will be ran to suit her at least.

Pledge Of Peace is up in trip today, so that's of interest. All 8 of the 4yr old's previous runs have been over 12f; including 5 at the course. A case can be made for him based on his staying on over a couple of those. Yet to win, and staying isn't assured, but he's a good price here. If a few of these take each other on early; then, the door could be left open for a shock result, perhaps. I'm hoping I can get the first two here

[Deleted User]

1.45 Musselburgh Popping Corks 20/1 ew

Worth a go at the prices. About twice the price she should be. A winner over 5 on soft ground at Hamilton. Graham Lee; who's one of the top jocks gets the ride for the second time. 2 places only though, but at least a quarter the odds is on offer.

[Deleted User]

2.10 Southwell Tanit River 9/2 win

Out of action for almost 2 years until February. Has had 3 comeback runs, and the last 2 of those were pretty decent, although the ground was good. This 11yr old should like the soft going as much as any of them, and rates a value bet to me. If Nicholls' short priced fav doesn't run up to par, then I feel Tanit River could be the one to take advantage.

[Deleted User]

2.20 Muss Cockalurum win 11/2

[Deleted User]

2.55 Muss Six Strings 7/2 win

[Deleted User]

^^^

Was bigger earlier.... "Don't know why he's being supported" :rolleyes: sayeth racing tv bloke.... I do; cos he's well andicapped for one that's shown a liking for soft conditions... A better chance than 6/4 fav Tukhoom anyway.... Hope the pick goes well for his new trainer Grant Tuer, who's having an excellent last few months..

[Deleted User]

3.20 Southwell Mr Tg 33/1 ew , Sounds Russian 5/1 ew

[Deleted User]

^^^

Sounds Russian is by Sholokhov, and should like the ground. Mr Tg's bumper outing at Fontwell on soft way back in November '19 would give him a chance here. The Skelton and Hendo top two in betting have plenty to prove given their prohibitive odds....

[Deleted User]

4.05 Musselburgh Four Kingdoms win 17/2

A trappy 4 runner affair with the 4 nr's.. Goes well at the course.. Soft may not be ideal, but he's of some appeal given the price looks marginal value, and it's hard to make a solid case for t'other three; plus the race mightn't be run to suit given the dearth of runners.. pace and whatnot prob not guaranteed..

[Deleted User]

5.25 Warwick Global Effect 15/2 ew

Just the 2 places here, and I hope I get one. The selection I'm not massively confident about, but if he likes the soft ground he could go well here. On his second hurdles' start lto (on good to soft, gd in places) he came 4th; having ran keen, and making a mistake at the first; eventually finishing 4th - beaten about 20 lengths. The headgear comes out in the form of the hood, so if this helps him settle a bit better; along with the possibility of him perhaps liking the ground, then he may go close. That lto race was at Ludlow, and ran in a fast time, so I think the selection is fairly priced; albeit only *2 places on offer.

*Just the 5 go to post, so any nons, and he has to win

JP has 2 in this, and one is a very warm order indeed. That is the fav Broomfield Burg, who is the 2/11 fav :eek: He won his PtP on Soft to Heavy, then flopped in a heavy ground bumper, when going off at 5/4. He redeemed himself in his next bumper when winning easy lto at Southwell. That was on good (good to soft in places) , and the race was ran in a slow time. It will be his first hurdles' bid today, and the going is a lot different (good to soft - soft in places). Be a brave punter who'd take them prohibitive odds imo.

The selection is 11/10 w/o jolly, and 10/11 to fill one of the 2 places, so nothing doing there, given he's no 'cert' to be there or thereabouts , given the ground, and the possibility of him not staying, but 15/2 all things considered is a very good price, esp seeing as the 3rd fav is Gary Moore's Trafalgar Boy; who's having his first hurdles' outing on the back of a 2 yr absence. His 2 bumper runs were decent; with both on goodish ground (good - gd to firm lto, and good to soft before that); where he finished 3rd lto and 4th on his first outing. Am more worried about Tom George's charge not staying/liking the ground, than Gary Moore's being 'better' than the pick.

I might (likely will) back the fav 'not to win' if he's still at 1/5 - 1/6 come the opening show.

[Deleted User]

25/05

Running P & L -11.5pts

Invested 18pts

Returns:

8.05 Bird For Life (done ew @ 12/1) wins at a quarter the odds a place returning 17pts
2.10 Tanit River (done win @ 9/2) wins returning 5.5pts
2.20 Cockalorum (done win @ 11/2) wins returning 6.5pts
3.20 Sounds Russian (done ew @ 5/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 2pts

Invested 18pts - returns 31pts

Profit for the day 13pts

Running invested total - 2,157 pts

Total P & L +1.5pts

[Deleted User]

3.10 Hamilton Betty Grable 9/1 ew

Should like the good to soft ground. Distance should be fine. Is a course winner. Can be held up, or race close to the pace. A few in this who like to make all/race prominently, and I think the pick is perhaps a couple or three points to big. Hoping the 7lbs claiming jockey is on her A Game, and that she can get Wilf Storey's mare home in front.

[Deleted User]

4.10 Hamilton Bawaader 11/2 ew

Price is about right (was bigger earlier

, but I wasn't looking then

). 15 runs, and yet to win. Can draw a line through his last 4 (poor) runs, as they were on heavy/AW/amateur race/AW... A couple of good runs before that over a mile (finishing 2nd in both). First of those was at the Hamilton course on good to soft, and he was staying on over the slightly extended mile. The 9 furlongs trip at the same course should therefore suit, I'd wager. That race was ran in a good time, and there was daylight 'tween him and the third.

[Deleted User]

3.40 Hamilton Soller Bay 7/2 win

Represents a tiny bit of value against the underpriced 5/4 O'Meara fav Celtic Empress; who's far from guaranteed to go close here imo...

[Deleted User]

8.20 Wolverhampton Man Of Verve 40/1 ew

Very tasty price - should be about half that I think. Came third over the mile and a half on the Tapeta at Newcastle 2 runs back; albeit on the Standard to Slow going. Furthest he's ever won over is over 10f on that aforementioned going at Newcastle, and the furthest he's won over at Wolves is over 9 1/2f. Last time he ran over today's trip at the course, he finished 6th. He broke slow that day, which was in January gone, and the race was ran in a poor time. He has the first time visor applied today, which may see him break better. Still not a guaranteed stayer, but hard to overlook him at the price available.

A lot of these like to be up with the pace, so plenty of room at the back for the selection to go about his business if he's held up. No standout contenders in this whatsoever imo, and another one that could go well is Enmeshing at 25s. Just the 1 for me here though in this 12 runner affair, where 4 places a fifth are on offer, but that's no doubt contingent on all 12 lining up.

Gluck

[Deleted User]

8.50 Wolverhampton International Law 13/2 ew , Tamkeen 14/1 ew , Pope Gregory 10/3 win

A few in this who like to race forwards. If International Law runs his race, he'll not be far away. He's one who likes to race prominent, so can only hope that he doesn't overrace; so as to give him a chance of seeing the trip out. He's ran over this trip several times, and is a 2 time C & D winner. The price is fine.

Tamkeen has yet to win after 12 attempts. Has been with Mrs Carr for the last eight of those. A bit of a speculative one, and the price aint overly generous, but seems to be going the right way recently. Was only beaten about 4 lengths lto at Ayr over a mile. Was staying on at the end, and the extra 140 yards should suit. That said they're both different courses - Ayr and Wolverhampton - , but it does look as though he's on the improve, and Luke Morris is on top for the first time. Pope Gregory looks the one to beat here at about 10/3 , so will go win on him.

[Deleted User]

7.50 Carlisle Vindobala 11/2 ew

2 places here, and she has previously shown an ability to act on soft when 4th over almost a mile less, when staying on over 7f last August at Catterick. No obvious pace on here, but the selection is versatile regarding how she races. She won well over a mile 2 runs back at Redcar over a mile on good to firm. What helped her win that day was most likely that the race was ran in a very slow time. She didn't fare so well lto at Redcar on good ground, also over a mile; but that was ran in a much faster time. The trip today, which is just shy of a mile and on soft ground should suit. The obvious danger is the favourite Helm Rock, who won easy lto over 7 on soft. Today's trip is a bit of a question mark for the drifting fav, so happy to go with the pick, who can hopefully oblige here.

[Deleted User]

26/05

Running P & L +1.5pts

Invested 14pts

4.10 Bawaader (done ew) places @ 6/1 at a fifth the odds returning 2.2pts

Invested 14pts - returns 2.2pts

Loss for the day 11.8pts

Running invested total - 2,171 pts

Total P & L -10.3pts

[Deleted User]

27/05

Running P & L -10.3pts

Invested 2pts

Returns - none

Invested 2pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 2pts

Running invested total - 2,173 pts

Total P & L -12.3pts

[Deleted User]

04/06

5.40 Epsom Paws For Thought 8/1 ew

Good price.. Low weight.... Looks well handicapped.. Ground versatile... Can make all, or lie up with the pace.. This 3yr old getting some allowances can go well here...

[Deleted User]

04/06

Running P & L -12.3pts

Invested 2pts

Returns - none

Invested 2pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 2pts

Running invested total - 2,175 pts

Total P & L -14.3pts

[Deleted User]

Up to 06/06

Running P & L -14.3pts

Invested 2pts AP for Derby (yesterday) - High Definition done EW 06 Jan. Not declared.

Invested 2pts - returns none

Invested 2pts - returns 0pts

Loss 2pts

Running invested total - 2,177 pts

Total P & L -16.3pts

[Deleted User]

08/06

Salisbury

1.35 Desert Marathon 11/2
4.30 Decora 11/1

Wetherby

6.00 Esticky End 12/1 , Sugarpiehoneybunch 11/2
8.05 Low Profile 11/1, Framley Garth 16/1, Burnage Boy 33/1

All ew, Gluck

[Deleted User]

Southwell 4.50

With 4 places on offer; will chance a few in this

Leroy Brown 25/1 , G'day Aussie 25/1 , Just Marvin 12/1 , Conundrum 33/1 , Seaborough 7/1, Gerard Mentor 20/1. ew the lot.

Think all these can give us a chance of filling a few o the top spots.

[Deleted User]

08/06

Running P & L -16.3pts

Invested 26pts. 6.00 Sugarpiehoneybunch done ew nr. 24pts in play.

Returns:

4.30 Decora (done ew) wins @ 16/1 at a fifth the odds a place returning 21.2pts
8.05 Low Profile (done ew @ 11/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 3.2pts
4.50 G'day Aussie (done ew) places @ 40/1 at a fifth the odds returning 9pts

Invested 24pts - returns 33.4pts

Profit for the day 9.4pts

Running invested total - 2,201 pts

Total P & L -6.9pts

[Deleted User]

09/06

Yarmouth

1.50 Sparkling Diamond 50/1 ew , Englishman 16/1 ew , Lincoln Red 7/1 ew

Sparkling Diamond is a bit of a punt, although not completely without a chance, and the other two are hopeful picks in an open looking race.

5.10 Oud Metha Bridge 8/1 ew , Dr Jekyll 14/1 ew

Think the fav Thomas Lanfiere is one of the two to beat; but, at 7/4 and going up in the weights, I'm gonna hope he doesn't complete the 3 timer tomorrow. As well as the favourite, I also think that the 7/2 2nd fav Don't Joke can be potentially there or thereabouts. A bit short for me though; as although he finished a good 2nd lto over slightly further at Nottingham (in a good time), that was his first decent run on proper good ground in quite a while; plus it was also an apprentice race (as it is tomorrow ). Like the fav, I'm hoping he doesn't build on that performance.

Nonetheless, the two picks have solid credentials regardless, at their respective prices. Oud Metha Bridge has been out of form the last while, but he generally goes well at the course, and acts on good ground. Dr Jekyll came a good third over C & D three runs back in April, and looks a little overpriced. That was on good to firm in a fast run race.

Haydock 4.55 Eponina 9/2 win NAP

A three horse race, so this frontrunning mare may be able to get her own way up front. If Erika Parkinson can get the fractions right, she may make all here off her mount's low weight; with the combo carrying a stone or more less than the top two. The selection acts on good to firm, and is about 2 points bigger than what she should be imo. I don't know why the fav Madame Peltier is so short at 1/2, as lto she won over a mile on far softer going. If she's the same price tomorrow, I'll probably back the fav 'not to win' come the opening show. The 2nd fav Toora Loora has never won, and looks as though she may want further.

Am happy enough with the picks above, and as long as the going has no soft in it at both courses; then I think at least some of them can go well... Doesn't look like raining in the interim across the pond anyhoo

In the 4.20 at Haydock the fav and the third fav may fill the top spots in another three horse race. Oceanline is currently around 11/10, and Prison Break 5/2 or so. Both of them won lto over the 14f trip, and in both cases the going was good (good to firm in places), and they completed their races in a fast time. The MJ 2nd fav Soapy Stevens is up in trip, on the back of his lto win over 1m 4f at Chester on good to soft. Might consider a r/f/c if the going and the prices are the same tomorrow. That's just by the by though

Gluck all

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

09/06

In the 4.20 at Haydock the fav and the third fav may fill the top spots in another three horse race. Oceanline is currently around 11/10, and Prison Break 5/2 or so. Both of them won lto over the 14f trip, and in both cases the going was good (good to firm in places), and they completed their races in a fast time. The MJ 2nd fav Soapy Stevens is up in trip, on the back of his lto win over 1m 4f at Chester on good to soft. Might consider a r/f/c if the going and the prices are the same tomorrow. That's just by the by though

Gluck all

4.20 Haydock Prison Break 11/4 win

Decided to go for this fella, as he's more than twice the price of the fav; and I can't really split them. Hard to know exactly how this race will pan out, as all three can race prominently, with it looking like either MJ's horse or Prison Break that will end up in front early. Might do a straight f/c with Oceanline to beat the pick - depending on prices available on the show, or back the fav if he drifts from 11/10. Either way, I don't think Prison Break's price will increase between now and the SP, so happy to put him up as the value 'outsider of three' pick..

[Deleted User]

09/06

Running P & L -6.9pts

Invested 12pts. 1.50 Sparkling Diamond ew nr. 10pts in play.

Returns:

1.50 Lincoln Red (done ew @ 7/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 2.4pts
5.10 Dr Jekyll (done ew) wins @ 14/1 at a fifth the odds a place returning 18.8pts
4.55 Eponina (done win @ 9/2) wins returning 5.5pts

Invested 10pts - returns 26.7pts

Profit for the day 16.7pts

Running invested total - 2,211 pts

Total P & L +9.8pts

[Deleted User]

Friday 11/06

Any day can be a Fry Day, even if it aint a crisp and dry day; Confucius he never say :P

2.10 Sandown Dashing Dick 11/2 ew , G'daay 25/1 ew

4.35 York Illusionist 5/1 ew

'luck

[Deleted User]

2.20 York Civil Law 7/2 ew , Sandret 7/2 ew , Regal Mirage 13/2 ew

A bit short all these to be going ew on the three of them, but they've all got winning claims methinks.