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Racing Uncertainties

[Deleted User]

I am starting this with the intention of posting selections for Horse Racing.

Nowt is certain in this game. Hence the title.

One to start off with.

Wolverhampton 7.15 Zafaranah

Mrs Barclay's Mare had a return to form last week when 2nd at the course over the extended mile. The horse has won before at this time of year, and is twice a Course and Distance winner off ratings higher than what she's assessed at tonight.

Available to back at 15/2 and bigger, I give it an each way chance here. Drawn 9 of 11 aint ideal, but I had no say in the box allocation.

I wish myself the best of luck with my thread, and hope to provide many winners and big priced placers.

That's all for now.

Gluck

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[Deleted User]

1.30 Worcester Storm Home 7/1 ew , Hot Ryan 10/1 ew

A few I like in this, and some of them have good form at the distance/course on good, but they don't have any experience over the larger obstacles, so I'll go for one here with chasing experience; and one with none, but has good hurdling/course form. Hawk's Well looks like a worthy favourite, and he came a good 2nd lto on his first go over fences. If he improves on that, he'll not be far away, but at 15/8 can be opposed; plus, there are 2 other places to aim for regardless.

The first selection will do me, because his trainer is in form, he carries topweight, and looks like good ground (a bit of rain be ideal) should suit. While he's yet to win over fences, he has been plying his trade in better races than this, and I hope he goes close.

Outside of the fav, Storm Home, I feel has both very good win and place prospects. The price is okay.

Hot Ryan has winning form over 3m at the course from hurdling. Has had three runs since she left David Pipe's. The last of those was okay, and it appears that this 9yr old mare is coming back to form (she had been off for about a yr and a half before her comeback run in March). She'll do as a 2nd pick here.

[Deleted User]

2.00 Worcester Getawaytonewbay 6/1 ew , Theatre Mix 10/1 ew , Full Trottle 14/1 ew

Can make solid cases for all of these, but it's getting too late for that. Happy enough to go with 3 here, with 4 places a fifth on offer.

[Deleted User]

3.35 Worcester The Distant Lady 8/1 ew

Very good price. Sound ew claims. A possible winner. Might even be a value pick, this one.

[Deleted User]

06/05

Running P & L +32.2pts

Invested 16pts

Returns:

1.55 Liffeydale Dreamer (done ew @ 20/1) places at a fifth the odds with a 5p rule 4 returning 4.8pts
1.30 Storm Home (done ew) places @ 10/1 at a fifth the odds returning 3pts
2.00 Theatre Mix (done ew @ 10/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 3pts

Invested 16pts - returns 10.8pts

Loss for the day 5.2pts

Running invested total - 2,057 pts

Total P & L +27pts

[Deleted User]

1.20 Ascot Chocolate Box 10/1 ew

Plenty of reasons for not liking a lot of those running in the first at Ascot; be it the ground (good to soft- soft in places, supposedly) , winning form at the trip , or both. Not too sure about the ground for the selection, but he hasn't ran on this sort of ground before; apart from once a few years ago. He lost ground by going wide that day over 2m at Newcastle in August 2018, and finished beaten about 7 lengths.

He's won twice on the AW over this trip, or close enough to it. A few here like to frontrun, so it will suit the selection, as he normally chases the pace. Ground a bit of a worry, but that same concern also applies to a few of the shorties; some of whom are stepping up in trip.

He'll do for me.

Gluck

[Deleted User]

07/05

Running P & L +27pts

Invested 2pts

Returns - none

Invested 2pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 2pts

Running invested total - 2,059 pts

Total P & L +25pts

[Deleted User]

08/05

3.40 Ascot Motakhayyel 10/1 ew , Tinto 50/1 ew , Kaeso 20/1 ew

My three against, with 6 places.

[Deleted User]

08/05

Running P & L +25pts

Invested 6pts

Returns - none

Invested 6pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 6pts

Running invested total - 2,065 pts

Total P & L +19pts

[Deleted User]

3.00 Killarney Effernock Fizz 16/1 ew

Just like Leopardstown, the going here at the Kerry course is described as good. This filly tries to make all in nearly all her hurdles' races.

I'm not really confident about this one. Was looking through the form, and she appears to be the only frontrunner in this. I'm hoping she'll steal a march on the field, and will have a few of them 'at it' a few furlongs out. A run for me money be good, and if I'm in with a shout of getting placed 3 out I'll be content enough; with anything more a bonus.

Am not just throwing money away for the sake of it. While there are a few horses in this from big yards, I'm hoping that the jockey A Short will get the fractions right, and get a few o' these fillies and mares out of their comfort zone. I reckon there's some juice in the win part, and the place bit is fair. Would have her as an 11-12/1 shot myself.

Will certainly be a welcome winner for both me and her trainer Katy Brown

[Deleted User]

1.50 Ludlow Caro Des Flos 9/1 ew NAP

Am thinking he'll go very close, especially if conditions get softer underfoot (currently good-good to soft in places). His 2nd at Southwell 3 runs back would give him every chance here. I think Mi Laddo wants a shorter trip on better ground, the fav Jessica Rabbit might need the run (coming back from almost a 6 month absence) , the Skelton 2nd fav is another that might prefer better ground and a longer trip, the topweight has too much weight, and the rest I am unable to make a case for them.

I can see the rain come and the selection to shorten.

Am feeling confident of a good run at a very good price,

G'luck

[Deleted User]

8.35 Ayr Jungle Book 22/1 ew , Royal Regent 16/1 ew

[Deleted User]

09/05

Running P & L +19pts

Invested 4pts

Returns:

1.50 Caro Des Flos (done ew @ 9/1) places at a fifth the odds with a 10p rule 4 returning 2.6pts

Invested 4pts - returns 2.6pts

Loss for the day 1.4pts

Running invested total - 2,069 pts

Total P & L + 17.6pts

[Deleted User]

11/05

Running P & L +17.6pts

Invested 4pts

Returns - zero

Invested 4pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 4pts

Running invested total - 2,073 pts

Total P & L +13.6pts

[Deleted User]

7.50 Bath Cloudy Rose 25/1 ew

[Deleted User]

12/05

Running P & L +13.6pts

Invested 2pts

Returns - none

Invested 2pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 2pts

Running invested total - 2,075 pts

Total P & L +11.6pts

[Deleted User]

7.40 Fontwell Postman 14/1, Hold Me Tight 9/1 . Both EW.

Think the (approx) 2m 2f trip, along with the good (good to firm) ground will suit both these. Maybe one might even win if the underpriced fav Shareef Star underperforms relative to expectations. It was a slow enough time in which he won his chasing bow lto.

[Deleted User]

8.20 Newmarket Colonel Faulkner 11/2 ew

[Deleted User]

13/05

Running P & L +11.6pts

Invested 6pts

Returns - none

Invested 6pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 6pts

Running invested total - 2,081 pts

Total P & L +5.6pts

[Deleted User]

8.50 Hamilton Laoise 25/1 ew

Yet to win is this mare for Linda Perrett. Has ran twice over C & D, and both were decent efforts. Having her 24th run, and Nathan Evans takes on the riding duties today for the first time. Think this will be the 17th different jockey up, and maybe he'll get a decent tune out of her.

[Deleted User]

8.20 Hamilton Carlovian 13/2 ew , The Retriever 9/2 ew

Carlovian possibly overpriced, and showed a return to form lto coming 3rd at Nottingham. The Retriever won over a furlong further lto at Southwell, but was well on top over a furlong out. Think I'll do a r/f/c on these two as well.

[Deleted User]

6.25 Aintree Goobinator 18/1 ew , Giovanni Change 7/1 win.

Donald McCain's horse is a nice price. Hard to make a solid case for him over 2 1/2m on good ground, but hard to draw a line through him also. Finished mid-div at the course over a 1/2 mile shorter lto. That was last month, and in a hot enough race; so perhaps the trainer feels a step up in distance at the course will suit. First time equipment comes out in the form of the tonguestrap.

Giovanni change won both his last two races. They were both at Market Rasen, and he made all to win over 2m 7f lto, and over 2m 5f the time before that. Up in grade, and mightn't have it all his own way here, but looks unexposed, and perhaps a point or 2 too big. Will probably win or come nowhere. Looks a progressive type anyway, and will hope he goes off in front.

Gluck

[Deleted User]

7.00 Aintree Johnbb 4/1 win

A fair price for this young chaser who finished 2nd lto over C & D. He led that day, but I don't think he needs to. A Class 1 Handicap that day, and faces a Class 2 today; so more weight to carry, and perhaps it will be the sensible option to take a lead in this. He mostly races with soft in the going description. Going is described as good; and it will be fine for him; I should think, if it stays that way, as he has form on good (good to soft), and a bit of rain wouldn't go amiss neither.

[Deleted User]

8.05 Aintree Whiteoak Fleur 12/1 ew

Give this mare an ew chance, at what don't look like an overly generous price. The topweight Cotton End could go well at about 7/2, but has to lump 12-2 - minus the jockey's 3lbs. Henderson's Paris Dixie looks capable of putting in a good round one of these days, and may go off shorter than the 7s generally available. The selection will do for me though; and is a hopeful, if not too confident a pick to get a return at double figure odds. It's the application of the first-time cheekpieces that sways me; as well as the fact that if the ground gets softer, it won't harm her chances any.

[Deleted User]

7.45 Hamilton Call Me Ginger 12/1 ew

The pick of his form would give him claims here. Last two runs been disappointing though, and needs to bounce back; but they were in Class 3s - the latest of which was after an absence. He doesn't race in a Class 4 very often, having mainly ran in Class 2s and 3s. Came 2nd over C & D in a Class 2 last July in a fast run race, where there was a bit of cut in the ground. At the price available, that piece of form will do for me here.

Gluck all

[Deleted User]

4.55 Newbury Sweet Reward 15/2 ew

Won at the course over a furlong further last August. That was on soft also. He has a high draw in stall 13 today, which should suit this one who likes to race close to the pace. Price is alright in a race where it's hard to give any of these a live chance.

[Deleted User]

14/05

Running P & L +5.6pts

Invested 16pts. 7.00 Johnbb NR win. 15pts in play.

Returns:

4.55 Sweet Reward (done ew) places @ 17/2 at a fifth the odds returning 2.7pts

Invested 15pts - returns 2.7pts

Loss for the day 12.3pts

Running invested total - 2,096 pts

Total P & L -6.7pts

[Deleted User]

6.20 Southwell Independence 11/2 ew

Won well lto when staying on over shorter. Was on good to firm that day, and in a fast time. Good ground today should be fine. Has drifted out from a lot shorter - was around 11/4 earlier. Am not liking the fav Pop The Champagne. Radetsky March might have a chance, but doesn't have great form. The equipment comes out, and it's his 2nd run for his new trainer L Morgan. Kerry Lee's newcomer, and the 3/1 2nd fav Licia St Goustan has been well supported, but no form to go on. I think the selection has both the form, and appears to be a massive price; so a no-brainer for me.

Best of luck

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

6.20 Southwell Independence 11/2 ew

Won well lto when staying on over shorter. Was on good to firm that day, and in a fast time. Good ground today should be fine. Has drifted out from a lot shorter - was around 11/4 earlier. Am not liking the fav Pop The Champagne. Radetsky March might have a chance, but doesn't have great form. The equipment comes out, and it's his 2nd run for his new trainer L Morgan. Kerry Lee's newcomer, and the 3/1 2nd fav Licia St Goustan has been well supported, but no form to go on. I think the selection has both the form, and appears to be a massive price; so a no-brainer for me.

Best of luck

3rd

Very slow run race from the start, so that didn't help... Race won easy by a 12/1 'outsider' .... Reasonably happy to get something back though

[Deleted User]

19/05

Running P & L -6.7pts

Invested 2pts

Returns:

6.20 Independence (done ew) places @ 15/2 at a fifth the odds returning 2.5pts

Invested 2pts - returns 2.5pts

Profit for the day 0.5pts

Running invested total - 2,098 pts

Total P & L -6.2pts

[Deleted User]

1.00 Lingfield Hi There Silver 40/1 ew , Compass Point 13/2 ew

A lot in this with chances. The 2 at the top of the market (Signal Twenty Nine @ ~9/4 and Azor Ahai @ ~3/1) are interesting in that despite their form figures, and indeed their overall form; that they have not been overlooked by the market. From a punting perspective they don't have any appeal at the prices. Signal Twenty Nine is having his second run in a handicap, and it's over a similar trip as lto. He came third that day, and would have to build on that to be winning this. That said, it was after an absence, and was also a significant improvement on his first 3 races; which were 2 novice stakes races, and a maiden. Could not be having him at 9/4 though.

The 2nd fav Azor Ahai is probably marginally less value at 3/1 than the Knight jolly. Lto Azor Ahai was staying on past beaten horses at the course, over a mile two. No guarantee that this close on 2fs extra should see him victorious later on today.

At around 11/2 the 3rd fav Alchemystique has a lot of question marks against her. Just the one decent run from 5 starts on the flat proper (first 3 runs were in bumpers) , with only one good piece of form from them five, and that was a win two runs back over slightly further at Lingfield on the AW; so she has course form, but not for me in this; even though that victory was in a Class 5, and in a respectable time. Too inconsistent imo, plus has physically 11lbs more on her back than that 10th May win.

Gary Moore has two (Capricorn Prince and Thermal) in this, and the slightly shorter of the two Capricorn Prince, at around 15/2 could go well here if the race is ran to suit. I don't think Thermal is guaranteed to stay. If Capricorn Prince was available at 8s or bigger, he'd rate a bet I feel. For those with multiple a/c's, I think 9s can be got. 7/1 is all I can get though.

So, I've plumped for the Madgwick trained grey Hi There Silver because he's a big double-figure price. Not so sure if he's 'value' , but is a big price, and; being drawn low, he may be sent from the front. Three runs back at the course; over about 80/90 yds further, he faded inside the last furlong and was beaten just under 3.5 lengths. The time of the race was nothing exceptional, but he can be given a place finishing chance at the least. He led after 2 furlongs that day from a box 10 seat. I'm hoping that with him being drawn in the 2 box that he can lead from the get-go. I hope the 7lbs claiming Mollie Phillips is under instructions to keep things simple, and get to the front tout suite.

The second pick Compass Point has been in form of late, has a decent course record, and looks tactically versatile. Being drawn high in 10; I'm hoping will see him held up, to come with a late thrust. It's obviously a poor race, being a grade 6; but a lot of the contenders are as often as not race prominent types, some moreso than others. Ideal then for Compass Point to be held up. He's the one horse in this who's price I can see shorten before the off.

Gluk