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Are we excited yet?

Nody

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Continuation of Is anyone else starting to become a bit excited?

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HGVRHKYY

Forgot Matic was being listed on Kraken today, I'm up 2,100% on mine now after this latest rally. Bit sickening though as I originally wanted to buy €1k worth, but I bought it on CEX.io as it was one of the few exchanges listing it with a € pair at the time, thought it was a bit dodgy and they've a disgraceful withdrawal fee

Even now it's 40 Matic to withdraw

HGVRHKYY

MicroSrategy bought another 229 BTC for an average of $43.6k, they've 90k BTC now, must be aiming for 100k

Bob24

HGVRHKYY wrote: »

MicroSrategy bought another 229 BTC for an average of $43.6k, they've 90k BTC now, must be aiming for 100k

To be honest, given their existing holdings a 229 BTC purchase is a drop of water and is more of a PR exercise than any meaningful move.

(I am not criticising them - I get why they are doing it - but we should keep it in context)

In terms of ratio, it is the same as if a poster on here was saying that they already own 10000 euros worth of BTC and that they just purchased an additional 25 euros.

HGVRHKYY

Bob24 wrote: »

To be honest, given their existing holdings a 229 BTC purchase is a drop of water and is more of a PR exercise than any meaningful move.

(I am not criticising them - I get why they are doing it - but we should keep it in context)

Yeah for sure, but they've made a few of these smaller buys over the past couple of months, similar to any individuals DCAing really. They all add up, but even when they first started buying Saylor had said they plan on continuing to buy more when they can. They're a public company so need to be transparent either way

qwabercd

Does anyone think there's a link between the drop in bitcoin over the last week and the closing of the original bitcoin excited thread on here for exceeding max posts?

mcriot29

How long do you guys think this drop will last do you think days weeks or months .
Reason I’m asking is I want to invest some cash in the next few weeks into ada xrp tron etc
Would zill
Be good investment

FileNotFound

mcriot29 wrote: »

How long do you guys think this drop will last do you think days weeks or months .
Reason I’m asking is I want to invest some cash in the next few weeks into ada xrp tron etc

XRP has been stable for the last bit and even rising.

Would love to know peoples thoughts as well. Going to kick off my crypto life now. Only small bit to start but some in stable known coin and then any gambles people might suggest.

If i can show growth she'll let me go deeper

:D:D:D:D

mcriot29

FileNotFound wrote: »

XRP has been stable for the last bit and even rising.

Would love to know peoples thoughts as well. Going to kick off my crypto life now. Only small bit to start but some in stable known coin and then any gambles people might suggest.

If i can show growth she'll let me go deeper :D:D:D:D

Xrp could rise a lot when this court case ends
I think ada could be at 10 by 2023.
Tron looks good too also cheap
Zil could be a good bet too
Litecoin also

weemcd

FileNotFound wrote: »

XRP has been stable for the last bit and even rising.

Would love to know peoples thoughts as well. Going to kick off my crypto life now. Only small bit to start but some in stable known coin and then any gambles people might suggest.

If i can show growth she'll let me go deeper :D:D:D:D

It's choppy AF every single day atm lads. Best thing would be to pick a few coins to buy and keep an eye on the prices, set an alert on the app you use and buy when it's close to that price.

Be warned you will see swings of 50% in 24 hours on some coins, and this will happen a lot. This means you can lose profit quickly, but also pick up some coins that recover quickly. You need nerves of steel to ignore dips and sell at a loss.

Have a look at setting stop losses, this is very important to avoid getting shaken out. I don't know if I'd be comfortable recommending what to buy. Some would advocate having 50% BTC/ETH, 25% larger alt coins and maybe 25% on small cap coins, with some cash to buy the dips.

I'm sure others here will have some better suggestions than I.

mcriot29

weemcd wrote: »

It's choppy AF every single day atm lads. Best thing would be to pick a few coins to buy and keep an eye on the prices, set an alert on the app you use and buy when it's close to that price.

Be warned you will see swings of 50% in 24 hours on some coins, and this will happen a lot. This means you can lose profit quickly, but also pick up some coins that recover quickly. You need nerves of steel to ignore dips and sell at a loss.

Have a look at setting stop losses, this is very important to avoid getting shaken out. I don't know if I'd be comfortable recommending what to buy. Some would advocate having 50% BTC/ETH, 25% larger alt coins and maybe 25% on small cap coins, with some cash to buy the dips.

I'm sure others here will have some better suggestions than I.

ETH Looks better for profit then bitcoin could be worth 20k

Potatoeman

Only invest what you are willing to lose. The stories where people lose their shirt are always over leveraged and borrowing money so they get screwed when the market tanks.

Panrich

qwabercd wrote: »

Does anyone think there's a link between the drop in bitcoin over the last week and the closing of the original bitcoin excited thread on here for exceeding max posts?

No, It is certainly because I have started to dabble in crypto a week or so ago.

FileNotFound

Thanks everyone, seems a minefield alright.

Won't be putting the house on any for sure.

mcriot29

Panrich wrote: »

No, It is certainly because I have started to dabble in crypto a week or so ago.

What crypto have you bought
I was thinking of putting 20k into eth ada xrp etc

mcriot29

FileNotFound wrote: »

Thanks everyone, seems a minefield alright.

Won't be putting the house on any for sure.

If you did put house on it I would say ETH and bitcoin be safest ðŸ˜†

Panrich

mcriot29 wrote: »

What crypto have you bought
I was thinking of putting 20k into eth ada xrp etc

Started out with EOS, ADA, HBAR and a few smaller punts on things like BTT, WIN, DOGE and TRX. Going to put in a fixed amount every month and just buy different crypto. I'll hold most even if they are tanking badly and just let it ride out. I hope to have a balanced portfolio at some point in about a years time.
In the meantime, I'll buy whatever seems like a good punt.

mcriot29

Panrich wrote: »

Started out with EOS, ADA, HBAR and a few smaller punts on things like BTT, WIN, DOGE and TRX. Going to put in a fixed amount every month and just buy different crypto. I'll hold most even if they are tanking badly and just let it ride out. I hope to have a balanced portfolio at some point in about a years time.
In the meantime, I'll buy whatever seems like a good punt.

Sounds like a good and wise plan

Fitz*

I'm getting 2 different portfolio balances on my coinbase account. One on desktop and one on the app. Anyone know why this could be happening?

Mellor

Donald Trump wrote: »

Hi Mellor. The post I referred to appeared to be telling people to wait to buy the future dips. It was not saying "buy now because it is currently undervalued". I took it to mean to wait to buy - as you pointed out from my own posts.

I was speak about the idea of buying the dip in general. Not vouching unknow poster. There are many people on the internet waffling about buy this, pump that, moon this, diamond hands etc that haven't a clue are are just gambling.

I will refer you also to his advice to do the same on 10th May when it was at 56k. So if he meant the "current dip" yesterday, then he also meant the then "current dip" on 10th May. And if you took his advice on 10th May and put all your spare money into it, you would not have had any spare money to put in yesterday.

It's kind of hard to place the exact time. But everyone around it are talking about a plummet. So I presume, the drop over 10th to 11th had started.

People have to set their own orders. Not expect others to tell them when to but. I set some orders in early march. There was two dips that failed to hit them. Those dips were not sufficient for me. They were actions this week. People have to pick their price.

I had also set a ETH order, it rebounded $50 above my price. The 50

It is off topic, but Leeson did indeed initially enter a straddle. It was a simple volatility play - picking up pennies in front of the steamroller as I referred to earlier. What his actual position was is not the point. He then proceeded to double down after getting hit by the steamroller by entering into even more risky trades to win money back to cover losses - as he had done on previous occasions. He did not have the firepower to move the market like he had done previously. He thought he could do it but failed.

he did double down to recover losses a lot. Losses that he was hiding.
I'm sure there was more than one straddle. The one I referred to was near the end. He straddled i, and the earth quake hit. Causing him to lose a bucket,

BTW, the mention of shorting was just that if you were convinced that a temporary dip followed by recovery back to today is coming, and that you wanted to hold off buying until that dip, then you can also just short to profit from that.

If you knew sure. But nobody knows.
Using my example above. By BTC order too over a month to action. My ETH is not going to action. If I shorted I'd have lost a lot if I shorted both.

Shorting means the price must fall or else you lose.
Ordering a price, buying a dip, you get to confirm it happens before putting a penny in. If it never happens to don't lose.

There's a huge difference.

You decide to short the coin now. Jimmy decides to wait for the dip before buying. Under the scenario that what you expect happens, it dips to 30, both you and Jimmy buy your coins then (you give your borrowed one back and you are up 20), it then recovers to 50 (and now Jimmy is up 20). So both are up 20 (assuming no fees and ignoring TVM). Obviously the potential payoffs and risks for other scenarios/outcomes are different, but we can also synthesize those if we want.

Well both aren't up 20.
I'm up 20 when it hits 30 and Jimmy buys. I have the option to buy them too. So by the time it hits 50 I'm up 40. I risk more so I made more.

But it could just as well rise to 60 by the time the option expires. Now I'm down 10. And Jimmy hasn't lost a penny. Setting a price where you'll buy in, and shorting and not remotely the same

The "effectively hedging" I mentioned was both holding on and waiting to "buy the dip". That is indeed effectively hedging. I"m not saying that is or is not a good idea - I'm just saying that is what it is.

That is not hedging.

Hedging involves opposing trades to protecting yourself from losses.
Using the example above.

Jimmy bought at 30. It then rises to 50. (holding a potential of +20)
He sets an order at 30. The point where he'll re-invest. But re-investing doesn't protect his holding. So not hedging.

Jimmy shorting it at 50 while he held also wouldn't be hedging. And it cancels out his holding.
Hedging would be a traded that limits losses, at the expense of a premium.

You say he was not saying to wait but to buy immediately. I assumed that he was saying to wait for future dips. Anything I said is predicated on that assumption.

I haven't been following his posts. I;ve no idea what he meant or if it made sense.
I'm just pointing out that buying a dip and holding are not mutually excludive strategies

[Deleted User]

weemcd wrote: »

It's choppy AF every single day atm lads. Best thing would be to pick a few coins to buy and keep an eye on the prices, set an alert on the app you use and buy when it's close to that price.

Be warned you will see swings of 50% in 24 hours on some coins, and this will happen a lot. This means you can lose profit quickly, but also pick up some coins that recover quickly. You need nerves of steel to ignore dips and sell at a loss.

Have a look at setting stop losses, this is very important to avoid getting shaken out. I don't know if I'd be comfortable recommending what to buy. Some would advocate having 50% BTC/ETH, 25% larger alt coins and maybe 25% on small cap coins, with some cash to buy the dips.

I'm sure others here will have some better suggestions than I.

I don't use stop losses, I just set buy/sell limits, which I think is effectively the same thing.... but isn't the danger with stop losses is that you can easily get shaken out?

Irish_rat

mcriot29 wrote: »

What crypto have you bought
I was thinking of putting 20k into eth ada xrp etc

I wouldn't put all your eggs in right now. Maybe get some exposure to eth and ada. But would have my bags packed for the next bear market

HGVRHKYY

Irish_rat wrote: »

I wouldn't put all your eggs in right now. Maybe get some exposure to eth and ada. But would have my bags packed for the next bear market

Yes, only invest a small bit of that for now, maybe €5k/25% and dollar cost average that amount in over a few weeks, but keep the rest for another year or two when crypto is 'dead' and nobody wants to touch it, then start averaging the rest in over a few months and hold until 2024/2025

No guarantees of course, but if BTC continues being dominant then the market will continue following its having cycles

weemcd

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I don't use stop losses, I just set buy/sell limits, which I think is effectively the same thing.... but isn't the danger with stop losses is that you can easily get shaken out?

There is, and you're making a very valid point. Sometimes I've hit stops and been glad, other times I got shook out, and the coin rebounded and I was annoyed and wish I just HODL'd.

Tell me, what you're doing is just selling a percentage of your position once you've hit a certain price target? That could be a better strategy OR perhaps a mixture of the two?

mcriot29

I have heard ICP could be about to get bought by coinbase if this happen the price will rose a lot could be a good time to buy

[Deleted User]

weemcd wrote: »

There is, and you're making a very valid point. Sometimes I've hit stops and been glad, other times I got shook out, and the coin rebounded and I was annoyed and wish I just HODL'd.

Tell me, what you're doing is just selling a percentage of your position once you've hit a certain price target? That could be a better strategy OR perhaps a mixture of the two?

In my mind, putting in a stop loss is making sure you sell at a lower price. I'd prefer to buy then. Of course this doesn't protect you if the arse falls out entirely but I don't think that will happen personally.

I don't do it as much any more because it creates taxable events. More into holding long now and staking. But what I used to do is set buy limits around roughly the current value minus 10% or 7-day lowest point, and set sell limits at roughly the current value + 10%. I entirely made this up myself so I dunno if this is a winning strategy but it seemed to work well with how volatile crypto is. I've never totted up what I made doing this and if it was offset by fees. Hard to know since the value of it all has gone up so much regardless.

Now I just set buy limits to catch dips if I have any spare funds, as I'm very bullish. Let it sit and accumulate %.

Rezident

Fitz* wrote: »

I'm getting 2 different portfolio balances on my coinbase account. One on desktop and one on the app. Anyone know why this could be happening?

Mine are different too but only by about a fiver. They must be two different systems so there could be a delay of a few seconds. They should be the same though alright.

Donald Trump

Mellor wrote: »

That is not hedging.

Hedging involves opposing trades to protecting yourself from losses.
Using the example above.

Jimmy bought at 30. It then rises to 50. (holding a potential of +20)
He sets an order at 30. The point where he'll re-invest. But re-investing doesn't protect his holding. So not hedging.

Jimmy shorting it at 50 while he held also wouldn't be hedging. And it cancels out his holding.
Hedging would be a traded that limits losses, at the expense of a premium.

I won't go through all the post. I want to explain more clearly what I meant by the hedging comment. I am well aware of what it is. I may not have explained myself clearly.

The below is predicated on the assumption/understanding I had which was that the poster was saying that a dip was coming and to wait to buy in that dip but also to hold onto what they currently had. There are five people in my example. All need two of the underlying asset in one year. Suppose they are short a forward which requires physical settlement. Asset is currently valued at 50 so all have portfolios valued at 100 today.

1) Jimmy has 100 cash
2) Johnny has 100 cash
3) Mary has 1 asset and 50 cash
4) Anne has 1 asset and 50 cash
5) Peter has 100 cash

All five say they strongly believe that there is a dip coming. We are looking from the perspective of today. Below are the strategies taken:

1) Jimmy sits on his 100 and waits for the dip to buy two assets
2) Johnny buys one asset now for 50 and waits for the dip to buy the other one.

Jimmy is unhedged. Johnny has hedged albeit partially. But it is still a hedge. Do you agree? He has hedged with the asset itself!

Next:
3) Mary sells her asset immediately to convert it to another 50 cash. She decides to sit on it to wait on the dip to buy 2 assets.
4) Anne keeps her asset and waits on the dip to buy the other one.

Mary is speculating. Anne is again (partially) hedging.
"4" is effectively what I thought the fella was advising. Which is a perfectly reasonable strategy. But in doing it she is basically admitting - I am not 100% certain that this will work so I don't want to take the full risk. Now, that poster was pretty definite in his advice. If you are really that definite, you do what Mary did! And that was all I was saying.

For completeness I include
5) Peter spends his 100 Euro now and buys 2 assets. He is fully hedged.

Anyway, I'm not trying to start a row. Only clearing up what I think I did explain. Which was predicated on my (mis) understanding that saying "buy the dip" was advising to wait to buy a future dip.

weemcd

Donald Trump wrote: »

I won't go through all the post. I want to explain more clearly what I meant by the hedging comment. I am well aware of what it is. I may not have explained myself clearly.

The below is predicated on the assumption/understanding I had which was that the poster was saying that a dip was coming and to wait to buy in that dip but also to hold onto what they currently had. There are five people in my example. All need two of the underlying asset in one year. Suppose they are short a forward which requires physical settlement. Asset is currently valued at 50 so all have portfolios valued at 100 today.

1) Jimmy has 100 cash
2) Johnny has 100 cash
3) Mary has 1 asset and 50 cash
4) Anne has 1 asset and 50 cash
5) Peter has 100 cash

All five say they strongly believe that there is a dip coming. We are looking from the perspective of today. Below are the strategies taken:

1) Jimmy sits on his 100 and waits for the dip to buy two assets
2) Johnny buys one asset now for 50 and waits for the dip to buy the other one.

Jimmy is unhedged. Johnny has hedged albeit partially. But it is still a hedge. Do you agree? He has hedged with the asset itself!

Next:
3) Mary sells her asset immediately to convert it to another 50 cash. She decides to sit on it to wait on the dip to buy 2 assets.
4) Anne keeps her asset and waits on the dip to buy the other one.

Mary is speculating. Anne is again (partially) hedging.
"4" is effectively what I thought the fella was advising. Which is a perfectly reasonable strategy. But in doing it she is basically admitting - I am not 100% certain that this will work so I don't want to take the full risk. Now, that poster was pretty definite in his advice. If you are really that definite, you do what Mary did! And that was all I was saying.

For completeness I include
5) Peter spends his 100 Euro now and buys 2 assets. He is fully hedged.

Anyway, I'm not trying to start a row. Only clearing up what I think I did explain. Which was predicated on my (mis) understanding that saying "buy the dip" was advising to wait to buy a future dip.

Don't you ever STFU?

Donald Trump

weemcd wrote: »

Don't you ever shut STFU?

You might learn something. Or put me on ignore. Up to you.

grindle

hello2020 wrote: »

thanks for these interesting points.. from your past experience, do you see this a good time to buy ?

Nobody has any idea. I personally think BTC is heading towards and past $150k this cycle but I could be utterly wrong and the meta of the four year cycle now means nothing and this is it's peak right now. The prices will be decided between the kind of people who follow and act on what a random memester multi-deca-billionaire scumbag tweets, who get scared by a government saying they're banning everything and then the people who will bouy it by buying it no matter how low it goes.

If BTC rises to $150k and then tumbles for a year to $20k-$30k and stagnates for another full year will you be one of the ones dumping or one of the ones buying at the bottom?