RulesOfNature wrote: Its not about extracting taxes. The government doesnt 'need' to extract taxes - they print money. What you're trying to describe as 'tax' is heuristics for productivity - what you actually mean is that Ireland with its small population is not productive enough to compete with any first world nation, and a larger population base, whose productivity is centrally controlled via the euro, will make Ireland a more viable investment for MNCs. Ireland's population is greying. We're losing more to old age and emigration than we can naturally replenish. The central bank has deemed immigration necessary for the country. Mind you the central bank has also stated in no uncertain terms, that they want to reduce house ownership and increase renters - and the 'crisis' we're currently seeing is by design.
DerekC16 wrote: » Looking at the numbers, 2030-2035 will be the point of no return for Ireland. Something needs to happen soon. We need to stop relying on immigration and start incentivising our own people to have children.
Chris_Heilong wrote: » Our population of tax payers is too small for the Government to play with the big boys over in Europe so getting a large influx of new tax payers I am sure is seen as beneficial but that is more about immigration and not Multiculturalism. Personally I want people to come here and mix with the Irish and learn to integrate. Multiculturalism by its nature is the opposite and worst case scenario sees large groups of people moving into one area and treating it like they never left their country which can include all the negative elements of that culture and a disregard for their new host country, These bad elements are usually hidden by unfamiliarity and language barriers so the Irish public are not aware of it. I dislike those singing 'one world' as it is not realistic, We live in a unique country with unique culture/history, people are welcome to add to that culture but also they need to embrace Ireland the way it is.
2.4 million non-EU migrants entered the EU in 2017
Justin Credible Darts wrote: » Therein lies the problem. The average couple are already at breaking point with childcare fees and other expenses if one parent stays home then less income, having multiple children these days has never been harder. Unless of course you are an immigrant where you can avail of many options. or irish dole scum who have no desire to contribute to the economy.
Deleted User wrote: » We saw what people cared about when there was a suggestion of taking the medical card off some people who had an income of over a grand a week. They'll vote for their perceived self-interest.
What proportion of over-60s are non-Irish? It's a far lower proportion than of the under-60s. In 20 years when most of those people have died off the replacements will be proportionally much more likely to be the children of immigrants or be the half a million immigrants we "need" in the next 20 years.
At some point the "minorities" won't be a token grouping in the country. We've gone from a tiny foreign-born population to one of the highest in the world in the space of 2 decades. Our government's stated aim is to accelerate that further. There's still few people who seem willing to say "enough" and it won't be long til it's too late.
If only.
When? Just looking on the CSO there and these are the numbers for year-ending April. .
Deleted User wrote: » The proportion of births is greater because that tends to be the age cohort who initially immigrate but the fertility rate isn't double, it's nowhere near that. World fertility outside of Africa is barely above replacement, roughly 2.4.
Saying that, the plan isn't to add a million by 2050, they are aiming for 2040. That includes natural growth and a large percentage through immigration.
In terms of the pension system, continuing mass immigration won't solve it, the entire system needs to be reformed. Ireland will have plenty of examples to look at though because a huge swath of countries are hitting this issue now before us, places like Spain etc.
Deleted User wrote: » Except, Ireland is changing... as are "older people". Their awareness of what's going on is far different from, say, a generation or two generations ago. My parents, who are in their 80s, are fully aware that the likelihood of pensions existing (after a decade or so) for most people is very unlikely, and for those remaining with the pension, it will continue to drop in value considerably over time. There simply isn't the State revenue available compared to the rising costs to keep up. Oh, sure, some people will continue to buy into the promises of the politicians, but people are more aware of what's going on than ever before. My mother checks a variety of social media accounts, and is more plugged into what's going on in Ireland, than I am.
How does that work out? Non-citizens are still very much a minority compared to the overall population.
Ahh well, the majority of the post you quoted was related to Europe, and only the last paragraph related to Ireland. However, immigration which results in low skilled/lowly educated workers, will increase costs to the State, and therefore reduce the revenue available to provide services to the over/under 60s. That's simple/obvious enough. Then add in the social unrest that will happen as those low skilled workers find themselves unable to get work, and reacting to all those promises that politicians made, but failed to deliver on.
There's plenty of reasons for people to decide that immigration will produce more negatives than positives, and it's becoming increasingly difficult for RTE or our politicians to hide that. Especially once the remainder of Europe starts campaigning hard against immigration.
I doubt it. A large percentage of migrant groups will fcuk off to other nations once the recession hits Ireland properly, and they find a government unable to provide the level of benefits that were available over the last decade or so. Ireland can't provide the range of work that most of these people need, nor the welfare, when those jobs remain unavailable... whereas Germany, and others, can.
But sure, if immigration continues as it has done before... then we'll see the insane desire by our politicians realised. Although, I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss natural birth rates of natives from compensating.. It's entirely possible we'll see another shift in birth rates due to social change, as people are now more capable of working from home, thus making the idea of having a family easier to achieve. That counts for a lot..
mohawk wrote: » I wouldn’t call what New Zealand are doing an anti-immigrant policy. They are not stopping immigration at all. Low income earners pay no tax and as has been demonstrated in countless countries that low income immigrants get stuck in a poverty trap that subsequent generations struggle to get out of and this can have consequences for society. Personally I see no problem in non EU immigrants coming to Ireland that are fulfilling a skills shortage, paying tax, can provide housing etc for their families and also have English so they can comfortably engage with Irish Society and services etc. However, there does need to be some level of integration into Irish society (I am not saying giving up all important parts of their own culture).
Deleted User wrote: » I just don't see it happening tbh. In the case of Ireland older people it's been shown will vote and mobilise on their own interests. If they're convinced their pension depends on people coming from outside the EU to drain the state's coffers then they'll go along with it.
The under-60s in Ireland are disproportionately non-citizens compared to the overall population.
So you've already got the over-60s who will do anything for a medical card then a large proportion of the under-60s for whom tightening immigration standards definitely ain't in their interests. What remains would need to be highly skewed in one direction for your hopes to come true and it just isn't.
The plan is to increase the population by 1 million in the next 30 years while our birth rate is below replacement and proportion of births to non-EU mothers is more than double that of the proportion of non-EU population. The way things are going I'd say it's fairly conservative to estimate that by 2050 over half the population here will be 3rd-generation or less immigrants.
mohawk wrote: » Personally I see no problem in non EU immigrants coming to Ireland that are fulfilling a skills shortage, paying tax, can provide housing etc for their families and also have English so they can comfortably engage with Irish Society and services etc. However, there does need to be some level of integration into Irish society (I am not saying giving up all important parts of their own culture).
[Deleted User] wrote: » I just don't see it happening tbh. In the case of Ireland older people it's been shown will vote and mobilise on their own interests. If they're convinced their pension depends on people coming from outside the EU to drain the state's coffers then they'll go along with it. The under-60s in Ireland are disproportionately non-citizens compared to the overall population. So you've already got the over-60s who will do anything for a medical card then a large proportion of the under-60s for whom tightening immigration standards definitely ain't in their interests. What remains would need to be highly skewed in one direction for your hopes to come true and it just isn't. The plan is to increase the population by 1 million in the next 30 years while our birth rate is below replacement and proportion of births to non-EU mothers is more than double that of the proportion of non-EU population. The way things are going I'd say it's fairly conservative to estimate that by 2050 over half the population here will be 3rd-generation or less immigrants.
Deleted User wrote: » I wouldn't worry too much because the majority population (native) will be the ones pushing for change, and a reduction of foreign influence. Brexit was caused by far more than their experiences with immigration.. and they had a wide range of political/historical issues dealing with Europe. France isn't tearing itself apart. They're starting to recognise on a national level the impact of past failures with regards to integration. As are most European nations who have found that past efforts to encourage integration as opposed to expecting assimilation, have mostly failed. But the native population isn't eating itself over the situation.. you're simply seeing a shift in attitudes that are becoming more public. A movement away from the right wing groups, and a desire by many for a more reasonable response to the problems plaguing Europe. I expect to see some serious changes to immigration policy, and the ability to gain citizenship in most European countries, along with a review of citizenship given out to past migrants. A hardening of opinions towards those who have moved to Europe, and their contributions to their host nation, along with their efforts to integrate. I wouldn't be too surprised over the next decade or slightly longer than that, to see a variety of European nations give the middle finger to the UN, and start deporting those were given citizenship, but have failed to meet the desired standards of being a citizen... Then, there's also the hardening of opinions towards other religious groups, Islam in particular, and the influence that religion has since it has political realities in addition to the social. TBH I'm feeling quite positive about what's happening in Europe. There's a growing movement of people who are going to call the NGOs, activists, and virtue signallers out on their agendas. Likely we'll see a greater focus on nationalism, whether that's on the national level, or with Europe as a bloc. So... for me, I'm quite hopeful that people are starting to look for answers, as opposed to simply passing the problems over to the next generation to resolve. Ireland is further behind on the curve on this one, but I also hope that our politicians will follow Europe in this, although likely they'll be a year or two behind them.
jmreire wrote: » It would seem that politicians are sniffing the political winds, and there seems to be an increase of them jumping on the anti-immigrant band wagon... (1) New Zealand to cut low skill immigration On Monday, the New Zealand government announced it would be narrowing pathways for those hoping to migrate and work in the country, particularly those it classed as “low-skill” and low-wage workers" (2) Michel Barnier seems to have ruffled as many feathers in France with his latest comments on immigration as he did in Britain during his stint as EU Brexit negotiator. Positioning himself to run as the rightwing candidate in next year’s presidential elections, Barnier told a TV interviewer that he wanted to suspend immigration to France from outside the EU, including family reunions, for three to five years. Immigration, he suggested, was linked to terrorism and was a threat to the stability of French society. He also called for talks with other members of the Schengen group (the 26 European countries that have abolished all passport controls at their mutual borders) to strengthen the EU’s external borders. Barnier’s remarks caused outrage. But, shocking though they were, the comments are an extreme version of actual EU policy. Politicians of all hues have accepted that freedom of movement inside Europe requires the tightening of restrictions against non-Europeans.
jmreire wrote: » Google New Zealand to restrict visas to low level workers. There are several articles available.
jmreire wrote: » It would seem that politicians are sniffing the political winds, and there seems to be an increase of them jumping on the anti-immigrant band wagon... (1) New Zealand to cut low skill immigration On Monday, the New Zealand government announced it would be narrowing pathways for those hoping to migrate and work in the country, particularly those it classed as “low-skill” and low-wage workers"
Deleted User wrote: » I hope you're right and I do see reasons to be optimistic as well but tempered with a feeling that it's a highly volatile situation which needs to be managed with care. I'm not sure if the political leaders needed for the situation exist or ever will exist.
[Deleted User] wrote: » TBH I'm feeling quite positive about what's happening in Europe. There's a growing movement of people who are going to call the NGOs, activists, and virtue signallers out on their agendas. Likely we'll see a greater focus on nationalism, whether that's on the national level, or with Europe as a bloc. So... for me, I'm quite hopeful that people are starting to look for answers, as opposed to simply passing the problems over to the next generation to resolve. Ireland is further behind on the curve on this one, but I also hope that our politicians will follow Europe in this, although likely they'll be a year or two behind them.
Deleted User wrote: » The next 10-20 years in Europe are going to see some seismic events and changes due to rapidly changing demographics. We've already seen Brexit, French society starting to tear itself apart and a host of other events gathering pace throughout the continent. I have no idea how it'll turn out but it won't be pleasant.
DerekC16 wrote: » I wouldn't trust any politicians that suddenly get on the immigration sceptic bandwagon. Thatcher done it to get into power when the NF was making ground, Blair done it when the BNP were making ground. Release valves.
Experience_day wrote: » What benefits?
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