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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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[Deleted User]

Of course its all about votes. The crisis only effects a very small number of people in comparison to the total population, its a part of why it is so hard to solve.

Beigepaint

Reins wrote: »

https://twitter.com/crazyhouseprice/status/1391785573417988101

More on the housing crisis.

I was watching Claire Byrne and it twigged a conversation I had last week with an older guy - he’s mid 50s - at work. He has a windfall coming and he said he will give most of it to his daughter for a deposit.

Yerman from the crazy house prices insta page asked the contributor - an FG TD, I think - why are all of these measures aimed at FTBs, and not single people, people rightsizing, second time buyers etc?

He gave some waffly answer but it occurred to me that all of their new measures are targeting the children of their 55 to RIP age bracket demographic.

Second time buyers and downsizers are neither their demographic nor the children of their demographic (as they are likely to be older, consumed by the housing crisis and/or their parents are likely already RIP) - so flip them. Flip them to heck.

If the fella from my work gives his daughter a few quid and she uses the cash gift, the help to buy and the shared equity scheme she’ll be alright jack. What does that mean? Reciprocity in the form of votes.

Amadan Dubh

Mad_maxx wrote: »

any " economic manifesto" you get from PBP is written by him , he ran for them in the 2007 general election

that he has such a profile is a testament to the politics of the media in this country , marxist idiot

His property market views are far from Marxist and an idiot he seems not, what is idiotic about his article?

Mad_maxx

RichardAnd wrote: »

He writes for Darwin's Waiting Room (aka, the Journal), of course he's a mad lefty.

However, this is a good example of how a broken clock can be right sometimes.

any " economic manifesto" you get from PBP is written by him , he ran for them in the 2007 general election

that he has such a profile is a testament to the politics of the media in this country , marxist idiot

RichardAnd

Mad_maxx wrote: »

that fella will never be happy until private property is completely outlawed

far left bluffer of the highest order

He writes for Darwin's Waiting Room (aka, the Journal), of course he's a mad lefty.

However, this is a good example of how a broken clock can be right sometimes.

Mad_maxx

PropQueries wrote: »

Dr. Rory Hearne has a fairly long opinion piece in The Journal this evening. He seems very sceptical of any solutions the Government may bring in following the recent Maynooth estate fund issue.

Link to article in The Journal here: https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/housing-investment-5433241-May2021/

that fella will never be happy until private property is completely outlawed

far left bluffer of the highest order

Reins

https://twitter.com/crazyhouseprice/status/1391785573417988101

More on the housing crisis.

Hubertj

woejus wrote: »

Grand gaff but some drawbacks - right on the beach (which is nice in Bridgehampton I suppose, but attracts scobes here), right beside the trainline.

It does have ONE helipad though, one fewer than the winning house of 2021 out in Howth.

Can imagine it is savage to be looking out during a storm!

Perhaps security posted on the turret with some form of legal anti scobe repellant such as a water cannon?

Hubertj

<MoD SNIP>

You’ve lost me now but when looking at MyHome.ie and 12,642 for sale - would that also include multiple units in a new development? Or would 1 entry be for an entire development? Or are new builds separate? There is a new build tab in MyHome that has 332 properties.... is that 332 properties total or 332 developments so could be a multiple of 332?

RichardAnd

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

Important too are the comments and the most liked comments below. Unanimous in support of the article.

The comments are even calling Varadkar "Varadkar" and not "Leo". That's something new from the Journal.ie.

For myself, I wrote to all five local TDs on this issue. Sean Haughey had this to say:

The Government has stated that it is opposed to this practice where there is no evidence of real additional supply and the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage and the Minister for Finance are currently considering additional measures to tackle this. The Cabinet has already agreed on increasing the Part V provision from 10% to 20% to include affordable purchase which will ensure that every development has an affordable section. This in itself will prevent so called cuckoo funds from snapping up entire developments.

In other words, nothing will be done.

Amadan Dubh

PropQueries wrote: »

Dr. Rory Hearne has a fairly long opinion piece in The Journal this evening. He seems very sceptical of any solutions the Government may bring in following the recent Maynooth estate fund issue.

Link to article in The Journal here: https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/housing-investment-5433241-May2021/

Important too are the comments and the most liked comments below. Unanimous in support of the article.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

And would you agree that the transient vacancies include vacancies that are for sale and for rent?

I think I also agree with what you are saying.

woejus

Reins wrote: »

First thing I'd be doing is taking the sale off that agent.
4.5 mil property and agent can't be arsed to check the quality of some of the photo's :rolleyes:

Grand gaff but some drawbacks - right on the beach (which is nice in Bridgehampton I suppose, but attracts scobes here), right beside the trainline.

It does have ONE helipad though, one fewer than the winning house of 2021 out in Howth.

Can imagine it is savage to be looking out during a storm!

PropQueries

Dr. Rory Hearne has a fairly long opinion piece in The Journal this evening. He seems very sceptical of any solutions the Government may bring in following the recent Maynooth estate fund issue.

Link to article in The Journal here: https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/housing-investment-5433241-May2021/

hometruths

<SNIP>

Graham

Mod Note

as per previous mod note, take the (yet another) geodirectory debate to a separate thread.

Do not reply to this post.

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

GeoDirectory do not count properties for sale or for rent as vacancies.

What part of that statement is nonsense?

Highlighted one, I told like 10 times already. Nowhere they say that they don't count it, nowhere they say that they collect such information about properties. It's all about Census, and estimates why there could be difference.
And I totally agree with what awec has responded to you.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

I thanked, because that's the same thing what I told you about the Census already. All the answers relates to Census. While you speak nonsense about GeoDirectory. Nor they speak about properties for sale in their methodology, nor about owners in hospital, etc.

GeoDirectory do not count properties for sale or for rent as vacancies.

What part of that statement is nonsense?

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

Me too.

Their methodology is clear:

GeoDirectory exclude "transitional" vacancies from their count.
They consider properties that are "For sale" or "for rent" as transitional vacancies.
Hence GeoDirectory do not count properties that are "for sale" or "for rent" as vacancies.

Yet every time I state this, quoting GeoDirectory's methodology, Marius accuses me of posting misinformation.

Yet weirdly he has thanked your posts saying Geo exclude transitional vacancies and that transitional vacancies include for sale and for rent!

Gets quite irritating after a while, because it derails a more serious discussion about the huge problem of vacancies.

I thanked, because that's the same thing what I told you about the Census already. All the answers relates to Census. While you speak nonsense about GeoDirectory. Nor they speak about properties for sale in their methodology, nor about owners in hospital, etc.

Bass Reeves

cnocbui wrote: »

I have a 128 year old cut stone 'house' in the distant reaches of Connemara. I had someone recently interested who took his architect to view it, who estimated €500,000 to renovate.

I have no doubt that was for something that would end up gracing the front cover of an architecture magazine and would be put up for an award. I think my gut and caution was right. Even at a relatively paltry €300,000, I wouldn't be up for such a financial risk. Rental prospects would be dire, due to remoteness.

It all depends on what you are going doing with it. I knew I would not be selling it but renting it so it was a case of working with what you had. It must be a huge house to incur such cost is it a listed building. I pass this huge old house on an farm now and again. The farm owners have abandoned it and have build a bunglow to live in. I love to have a crack at renovating it.

hometruths

awec wrote: »

Yes.

Me too.

Their methodology is clear:

GeoDirectory exclude "transitional" vacancies from their count.
They consider properties that are "For sale" or "for rent" as transitional vacancies.
Hence GeoDirectory do not count properties that are "for sale" or "for rent" as vacancies.

Yet every time I state this, quoting GeoDirectory's methodology, Marius accuses me of posting misinformation.

Yet weirdly he has thanked your posts saying Geo exclude transitional vacancies and that transitional vacancies include for sale and for rent!

Gets quite irritating after a while, because it derails a more serious discussion about the huge problem of vacancies.

cnocbui

Reins wrote: »

First thing I'd be doing is taking the sale off that agent.
4.5 mil property and agent can't be arsed to check the quality of some of the photo's :rolleyes:

I'll bet the photos are fine - they look like they are displaying the thumbnail instead of the full res photo.

But yes, they should check. Possible a third party was tasked with a job and messed up.

awec

schmittel wrote: »

And would you agree that the transient vacancies include vacancies that are for sale and for rent?

Yes.

Reins

DataDude wrote: »

No idea on what the appropriate price is. But this is a serious house...I guess ideally you wouldn't want a Semi-D at €4.5m, but I'd put up with it.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/dunmara-strand-road-killiney-county-dublin/4499807

EDIT- I know it wouldn't fit with the style, and probably not even allowed if it's a protected structure. But with a view like this it nearly seems like a bit of a shame that there aren't more expansive views of the sea from Kitchen/Living Room/Bedrooms.

First thing I'd be doing is taking the sale off that agent.
4.5 mil property and agent can't be arsed to check the quality of some of the photo's :rolleyes:

hometruths

awec wrote: »

I think so yea.

The paragraph is quite hard to decipher!

And would you agree that the transient vacancies include vacancies that are for sale and for rent?

[Deleted User]

DataDude wrote: »

No idea on what the appropriate price is. But this is a serious house...I guess ideally you wouldn't want a Semi-D at €4.5m, but I'd put up with it.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/dunmara-strand-road-killiney-county-dublin/4499807

EDIT- I know it wouldn't fit with the style, and probably not even allowed if it's a protected structure. But with a view like this it nearly seems like a bit of a shame that there aren't more expansive views of the sea from Kitchen/Living Room/Bedrooms.

I've been inside, lovely house.
Former home of Gerald Keane, you're attached to Dermot Desmond too!

awec

schmittel wrote: »

Thanks, and forgive me if I'm stating the obvious, but just so I am clear, is your understanding thus that the like for like figure excludes the transient vacancies?

I think so yea.

The paragraph is quite hard to decipher!

hometruths

awec wrote: »

My reading is that CSO has some info on roughly 33% of the vacancies they found that would suggest that 55% of this 33% is "transient vacancy".

Geodirectories are then extrapolating this out, assuming that the remaining 66% of vacancies would show the same trend, and then adjusting the CSO figure with this info to give a number that can be compared like for like with GeoD. In the end, they get pretty close.

Thanks, and forgive me if I'm stating the obvious, but just so I am clear, is your understanding thus that the like for like figure excludes the transient vacancies?

awec

My reading is that CSO has some info on roughly 33% of the vacancies they found that would suggest that 55% of this 33% is "transient vacancy".

Geodirectories are then extrapolating this out, assuming that the remaining 66% of vacancies would show the same trend, and then adjusting the CSO figure with this info to give a number that can be compared like for like with GeoD. In the end, they get pretty close.

hometruths

Rather than dragging the thread into another tit for tat with Marius can anybody else help me to understand the question of whether GeoDirectory include properties that are empty being for sale and for rent in their vacancy figures:

The difference of some 87k vacant properties between census and GeoDirectory and methodology is explained thus:

Drilling down further, however, it is possible to explain some of this substantial difference. The CSO has provided some data on the reasons why dwellings were vacant at the time of the Census of Population for a small sample of vacant buildings (i.e. around 57,000 dwellings or close to one-third of the total). This one-third of the vacant stock includes dwellings classified as for sale (10,948 dwellings), for rent (10,350), owner in nursing home (4,165), renovation work underway (3,678), owner in hospital (1,469), and owner with relatives (847).
Some of these categories could be considered to be dwellings which might not normally be classified as vacant in the context of long term vacancy, but which would represent more of a transitional or temporary vacancy rate, i.e. properties waiting to be sold or rented out. In the aggregate they represent a total of around 31,500 properties out of the 57,000, or 55%. This implies that 25,500 of this total would be deemed to be vacant. As these explanations were only provided for one-third of vacant dwellings (if it is assumed that 55% of the remaining two-thirds were similarly classified, leaving 45% as representing the true vacant total), this would reduce the CSO figure for the number of vacant dwellings considerably to around 83,000, which would be closer to the GeoDirectory figure of 96,243

I read the above as GeoDirectory are saying the difference between them and the census is that Geo do not count all the categories of vacancy that the census do, and those categories make up approx 55% and the remaining 45% is what GeoDirectory consider to be the true vacant total, and thus what they report.

Does anybody else other than Marius think i am misunderstanding the above? Is there another way to read it?

Or does anybody else agree with me and read it the same way as I do?

Any responses much appreciated, i am not trying to drag others into a petty squabble, I genuinely want to understand the figures, it might seem trivial but the reporting of vacancies is actually a very big deal in the context of a broken property market.