PropQueries wrote: » So, let's remove that Cairn Homes stated that they did purchase many of their sites for c €15k. What's the current "market price" for a site with planning for a semi-detached house in Dublin? What's the current "market price" for a site with planning for a semi-detached house in Co. Tipperary? Does it really account for most of that €225k cost difference between building and selling a house in Tipperary compared to Dublin?
Bass Reeves wrote: » Houses and Apartments are not similar to decades ago. First off since the last boom and it's fallout remember the apartment block build by the SF developer and it's ramifications. Engineering certification as well as Electrical and plumbing certification has added 15-20k to the price of a new build. Insulation to A rating levels has probably added 20k to house prices since the early 90's most of the cost added in the last 5-10 yeats Go back a decade before that and houses were mostly build or were available anyway at builders finish stage, finished houses now are costing another 15-20k. Addition of downstairs toilet added 2-4k to house prices as well. A decade previous to that the on suite came in for the master bedroom about 3-5k added to cost again. All in all all these changes have added 60-80k to houses costs. With Dublin labour prices it probably nearer 100 k
PropQueries wrote: » If that's true, how are the developers in Co. Tipperary going to be able to buy a site, pay levies etc. build the homes and make a profit by selling them for c. €225k each as per the proposed affordable housing bill?
Villa05 wrote: » Would it matter if rent is set at % of income and do something similar for those who wish to buy. For those who buy the land stays in state ownership Need an alternative to the private market, because its clearly not working
Bass Reeves wrote: » I day in Dublin site costs would be in the region of 100k.+. In one of the bigger urban centres in Tipp such as Nenagh, Thurles or Clonmel you are probably looking a 40-50k, however if you go to satellite villages outside these urban centers it probably sub 30 k. All of these before development levies or services supplied. You will supply services in Tipp at 50-60% of Dublin's costs
cnocbui wrote: » At a rough guess, I'd say they aren't. Putting forth some aspirational ideal generated by a civil servant as a banchmark for market reality, might possibly be unrealistic.
awec wrote: » Houses are still just 4 walls and a roof in the same way that a 2021 car is the same as the one Henry Ford built, a few doors and 4 wheels.
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cnocbui wrote: » Those Sisk numbers you like so much - they wouldn't be because they don't included the cost of the land, by any chance? What do you imagine they had to pay the county council in terms of development fees and such? You don't suppose it was a big fat zero, by any chance?https://www.irishbuildingmagazine.ie/2018/11/01/sisk-living-delivers-90-social-houses-in-tallaght/ I have no idea why legislation drafted by a bunch of Irish civil servants believes you can build and deliver an A-rated home in Tipp for €255 K. Are there actual examples of such houses being built put to market at that price?
Hubertj wrote: » The article you quote states “ Recognising the urgent need for these houses for South Dublin County Council and in the context of the current chronic need for housing in Tallaght, Sisk Living implemented an aggressive construction programme for this development by utilising off-site fabrication, the selection of quality sub-contractors with the right resources and, importantly, the correct sequencing of the works which included a rising wall system which can be built quicker than blockwork and irrespective of poor weather conditions.” Can anyone that has actual knowledge (not a spoofer) explain difference and efficiencies of “rising wall” vs “blockwork”?
The prospect of immediate rental income copper-fastened by the security of a 25-year government lease is expected to see strong interest from investors in the sale of Project Haven, a portfolio of approximately 60 social housing units across Dublin’s north, south and west suburbs. The portfolio is producing a guaranteed gross rental income of €952,000 per annum and is being offered to the market by agent CBRE on behalf of Allied Irish Property and the Topland Group at a guide price of €21 million.
MacronvFrugals wrote: » Is it not significantly better value for the council just to buy these?Dublin social housing portfolio guiding at €21mhttps://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/dublin-social-housing-portfolio-guiding-at-21m-1.4549153
JimmyVik wrote: » They cant tap the tax payer for the money all in one go. Easier to bleed them for years instead.
timmyntc wrote: » As explained earlier today, EU fiscal rules mean we cant borrow as much as we like to build housing. If you agree a 25year lease it doesnt show up as 25years of spending in one go, its spread across years. That said, I dont know why the state doesnt try take advantage of the pandemic finance available & finance as many social builds as possible within this window before the taps are turned off and EU spending rules back in place.
Economists Philippe Martin, Jean Pisani-Ferry and Xavier Ragot said in a policy paper that the 3% cap, along with a rule requiring governments to work towards keeping debt to 60% of GDP, are obsolete and the deficit cap could even spur dangerously unnecessary budget rigour after the crisis.
timmyntc wrote: » As explained earlier .
MacronvFrugals wrote: » Is it not significantly better value for the council just to buy these?
hmmm wrote: » From the report, this costs the council €952,000 a year versus having to pay €21 million up front. It might be better value in the longer term, but I can understand where the council are coming from if they've been told to go out and maximise their current budgets.
Index-linked rent reviews are provided for in every third year.
Bass Reeves wrote: » We have been through many of these same debates for the last 12 months. Props continually bring up the Sisk 2018 house build price for a one off development for Dublin LA. He has ignored price rises since. He continually cannot grasp that you can pay any trades person less in Rural Ireland than in Urban situation or especially in Dublin's. It's the same with a number of other contributors they cannot seem to grasp rules and regulations. They cannot seem to understand that we have a limited labour supply and how that limit housing supply. You can explain again and again and again but Props will quote the Sisk figure ignoring that the pricing is about 4 years out of date. Some other contributor will come on about the number of vacant houses ignore where they are situated and whether they need refurbishment. This time last year as we came out of the first wave we had lads predicting a 20-70% price collapse and telling people buying to low ball bid, play hard ball as well as peudo advice to drop sales. Some continued predict not just price drop but price collapse right out into Autumn predicting a price collapse in 3-4 months time from there prediction
Bass Reeves wrote: » It's the same with a number of other contributors they cannot seem to grasp rules and regulations. They cannot seem to understand that we have a limited labour supply and how that limit housing supply. You can explain again and again and again but Props will quote the Sisk figure ignoring that the pricing is about 4 years out of date. Some other contributor will come on about the number of vacant houses ignore where they are situated and whether they need refurbishment.
Supply has collapsed for two reasons. The first, and less important, is the obvious one: if you’re not allowed build, because of public health restrictions, that will clearly have an impact on the supply of newly built homes. As it happens, and not least because Ireland was not building enough homes anyway pre-covid, this has been secondary. (Indeed, figures out in early May suggest the completion of new homes was surprisingly high in the first quarter of 2021.) The far more important reason is in the collapse of the second-hand market. If you can’t go see properties, you’re far less likely to put your own home on the market. And of course the longer the pandemic restrictions went on, the clearer it became that prices were rising – so why not wait a little bit longer, even if you were able to list now? The total number of homes put on the market in the first two months of 2021 was down almost 40 per cent on the same two months in 2020. This pattern is repeated in every market across the country. With strong demand and such weak supply, there were fewer than 12,000 homes available to buy online in Ireland on the 1st of March this year. That figure is simply incomparable to anything in the internet age. The average number of homes for sale online between January 2007 and December 2019 was over 40,000. And while that number had been falling pre-covid, there were still over 20,000 homes for sale on February 1st. The impact of the first lockdown is obvious: barely 4,000 homes listed for sale over the course of April and May, compared to 12,000 in the typical year. But so is the bounce-back in the following three months. Between June and August, there were 16,000 homes listed last year – almost exactly in line with the 2015-2019 average. Perhaps surprisingly, given how often you hear commentators claim that the laws of supply and demand don’t apply to housing, the market has been sending us very clear signals over the past fifteen years. When there are fewer homes available to buy, prices increase. When there are between about 4,000 and 5,000 homes on the market, there is little pressure – up or down – on Dublin sale prices. And when there are lots of homes for sale – in some cases up to 7,000 – prices fall rapidly. It will probably amaze those under the age of 40 to learn that, as recently as the 1980s, a home in Dublin didn’t cost anything more, on average, than a home in rural Ireland. Over the past three decades, however, as the country has found its economic model and entered a prolonged phase of growth, its housing system has been unable to respond at the right scale. Once again, this is supply and demand in action. The metaphor of staying in shape is probably an apt one. Staying fit is an endless battle. Every day, every week, every month, you have to put the effort in – otherwise the needle will start to shift in the wrong direction. Keeping housing affordable is the same. It means getting sufficient new housing built, month after month, year after year – decade after decade. Ireland has failed to do that now for three decades. Its housing market is totally out of shape. Here’s hoping that once policymakers have some headspace post-covid, they can finally put in place the long-term systemic housing policy the country needs to enable its growth and its residents to have the home they need.
MacronvFrugals wrote: » Even with the council on the hook for maintenance and upward only rent reviews? All that money and the state has no asset to show for it is what i find just crazy
MacronvFrugals wrote: » I would also describe anything that forces us into these wreckless lease deals as "dangerous"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-budget-france-idUSKBN2C018I
Amadan Dubh wrote: » Ronan Lyons writing in The Currency today, of the opinion that the extraordinary situation the past year in the housing market is likely to be a temporary state of affairs. Well, I don't think anyone would dispute that the price rises were unlikely to be sustainable given supply crashed while demand exploded, but it is interesting that his view is that the primary reason for the collapse in supply was due to second hand homes not being put on the market as opposed to construction being shuttered.https://thecurrency.news/articles/46503/lockdown-liquidity-and-respite-for-homebuyers-what-the-data-tells-us-about-the-outlook-for-house-prices/ Now I see why Props talks of seeing big things happening in August - covid restrictions will be all but dusht at that stage!
schmittel wrote: » And as sure as night follows day some other contributor will bring up that old canard that the vacant properties are actually derelicts situated in areas where there is no demand. Seems as good a time as any to repost Timingbelts excellent local breakdown for Dublin city: Vacancy rate of 9% in Dublin City, with some of the highest demand areas showing vacancy rates of well over double what you'd expect in a normal housing market, never mind a housing shortage crisis?!! Some contributors indeed ignore the fact a shocking amount of the vacancies are situated in Dublin. And they ignore the fact that Dublin is one of the few locations where the vacancies are rising.
fliball123 wrote: » Do I point out the obvious again with this train of thought. Zero sum game for every 2nd hand property put up for sale the demand for a 2nd hand property will go up by one as the seller now needs to buy
