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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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derekgine3

RichardAnd wrote: »

I would attend also, and I'm not the protesting type. At the very least, people need to write to their local TDs and demand that they pursue this issue. It's about making noise and keeping this in the public sphere.

Neither am i but enough is enough with this lunacy.

I've emailed over 30 TDs (multiple parties and Ind) within the past 3 months regarding the housing crisis and direct provision whitepaper. I only received four responses, two were from Aontu, one from NP and got a response from Jack Chambers saying they would forward the message on to Jack, this was two months ago.

Not a peep from any TD in FFFG/SF/Greens etc.

RichardAnd

derekgine3 wrote: »

Neither am i but enough is enough with this lunacy.

I've emailed over 30 TDs (multiple parties and Ind) within the past 3 months regarding the housing crisis and direct provision whitepaper. I only received four responses, two were from Aontu, one from NP and got a response from Jack Chambers saying they would forward the message on to Jack, this was two months ago.

Not a peep from any TD in FFFG/SF/Greens etc.

I've emails all my local TDs, and I will be emailing those further afield. So far, I have received a reply from assistants of a Labour TD and a Sinn Fein TD. The former said nothing, but the SF assistant give me a few paragraphs about how they have been trying to fix this for years. Sure, why not...

It seems to be something that has caught the public eye at the moment, however. No doubt some spin is on the way to knock it out of view some time soon, but we do what we can.

EddieN75

Cilldara_2000 wrote: »

These were all alphabet soup supporters. They have no skin in this game.

The ones that are most affected this time are the 20s to early 40s people.

In economical terms wouldn't this age group be most important?
The biggest spenders and drivers of economic growth.

Maybe I'm wrong and biased?

jill_valentine

EddieN75 wrote: »

Young people shouldn't feel like they have to leave their country. Remove the failing politicians instead.

Vote, protest, civil disobedience etc

Young people voted away from FFFG last chance they got and are set to do for the forseeable future. Many commentors in media and in this very thread dismissed it as simply contrarianism or "trendy".

I've written to many politicians in my time, in the last six months even (this time in relation to Rebuilding Ireland's ****eness) and the only replies I got were from independents, SF and maybe the Greens.

Young people have mounted several significantly well attended protests about housing - I was at them - but you wouldn't know it because they barely made the news. In 2018 they staged a sit down preventing any movement through the main thoroughfare of the capital city on a busy Saturday and the only reason it got any coverage at all was because somebody threw a dead pigeon at them.

Only so long you can keep trying all that, keep protesting to nobody, keep getting told you just need to pull up your bootstraps to buy the units that don't exist with the mortgage you won't get, before giving up is the rational thing to do.

At 36 I'm not so young now, but younger activists have been doing their part. It's affecting everyone else now - "real" people in the suburbs - so the tide has turned, but they've been trying to raise the alarm about the mess they were in for a long time. It wasn't them who took their eyes off the ball.

Cilldara_2000

EddieN75 wrote: »

The ones that are most affected this time are the 20s to early 40s people.

In economical terms wouldn't this age group be most important?
The biggest spenders and drivers of economic growth.

Maybe I'm wrong and biased?

Sorry, I wasn't clear with my point there. I meant that the protestors against water charges were mainly alphabet soup supporters and I don't think too many of them are all that worried about property prices and rent rates.

I agree that this age group (20s to early 40s) are most affected with this issue. But given the proportion of their income that goes on housing costs, I'm not sure they're the group with the most disposable income in order to be the biggest spenders.

MacronvFrugals

Paywalled but interesting piece from Stephen Kinsella in The Currency today

L1011

derekgine3 wrote: »

Neither am i but enough is enough with this lunacy.

I've emailed over 30 TDs (multiple parties and Ind) within the past 3 months regarding the housing crisis and direct provision whitepaper. I only received four responses, two were from Aontu, one from NP and got a response from Jack Chambers saying they would forward the message on to Jack, this was two months ago.

Not a peep from any TD in FFFG/SF/Greens etc.

There is one Aontu TD and zero NP TDs, so I don't know who you were contacting - but one for one final time

Politics to the Politics forum.

A specific thread on parties housing policies would probably go quite well there, but not here.

I'll actually have to action this from now on. If this involves carding everyone, so be it.

mcsean2163

From 2011 - 2020 the population increased by approximately 420,000. Our population density has increased considerably in the last 20 years.

However, that was not reflected in house prices at all and prices seemed to be tapering off until 2020. Was there massive immigration in 2020/2021 or a huge birth rate? The answer appears to be no.

I suspect that all that has to be done to temper the activity of REITs is for the council to stop signing 20 year leases. The government should be restricted to the 10% of new builds and then forced to build. As people have rightly pointed out there are large sites around Dublin and building up closer to the city could be another idea. If council houses are sold there should be stipulation that they cannot be sold to REITs or any landlords with owner occupier as s condition of sale.

I wish all in council houses the best and think they should be supported as best as possible but a balance must be found.

Next up, an adult immigration policy is needed. There needs to be periods where it is restricted so that the needs of all the people already in Ireland are adequately met.

The problem with many REITs is that although they pay dividends, the dividend tax could be paid anywhere and so there is no direct benefit to Ireland. We can't afford to let that money leave untaxed.

So the solution is as follows:

1. Government not allowed to buy in private sector except part v 10%. Government must build and perhaps apprentices could be incentivised to work on these schemes.

2. Transparent immigration policy based around available housing resources and economic needs.

3. Government only allowed sign with REITs for a maximum of five year terms and REITs money must be ringfenced and taxed before leaving Ireland, i.e. employees based outside Ireland, dividends outside Ireland, normal CGT rules on sale etc.

4. Government must fire people if they fail to perform.

P.S. I graduated in 2000. Back then it seemed people worked and went home. Even before covid19 it seemed work followed me home and my spare time was less. I think it's a lot more difficult today and many don't have the joy of building around their house, (I recently worked with the builder and it was great, a privilege and not something I'd moan about or look for a gold star). For me, it's been never ending exams and late nights. I recall about 10 years ago visiting an event in the public sector. I was absolutely stunned. It was like school. The people were bragging about how useless they were and how little they did. Young people now are expected to perform at a very high level in order to get paid and a huge portion of their pay often goes to a person doing very little from an older generation ( the landlord).

The young workers need to be given a better reward for work IMHO

Government buildings

The basic problem is that the cost of building houses in Ireland is very expensive.

First time buyers who can only get 3 and 1/2 times their income will never be able to afford housing in Ireland.

Builders will not build houses if they cannot make a profit from them.

The only way they can make a profit is to sell these houses to vulture funds.

mcsean2163

Government buildings wrote: »

The basic problem is that the cost of building houses in Ireland is very expensive.

First time buyers who can only get 3 and 1/2 times their income will never be able to afford housing in Ireland.

Builders will not build houses if they cannot make a profit from them.

The only way they can make a profit is to sell these houses to vulture funds.

No.

https://www.johnsiskandson.com/news/sisk-living-delivers-90-social-houses-in-tallaght-development-is-one-of-largest-schemes-delivered-this-year-1

2018, 90 houses built for an average cost of less than €180,000

It's not rocket science, they could even be prefabricated.

yagan

Government buildings wrote: »

The only way they can make a profit is to sell these houses to vulture funds.

Nonsense.

Buyers wanting home were simply outbid by their own government using their tax money and international investment funds.

Failing to understand this is going to get Fianna Fail permanently evicted by the voter.

EddieN75

Government buildings wrote: »

The basic problem is that the cost of building houses in Ireland is very expensive.

First time buyers who can only get 3 and 1/2 times their income will never be able to afford housing in Ireland.

Builders will not build houses if they cannot make a profit from them.

The only way they can make a profit is to sell these houses to vulture funds.

Give builders significant tax breaks. Make it profitable to build again.

jay0109

mcsean2163 wrote: »

From 2011 - 2020 the population increased by approximately 420,000. Our population density has increased considerably in the last 20 years.

However, that was not reflected in house prices at all and prices seemed to be tapering off until 2020. Was there massive immigration in 2020/2021 or a huge birth rate? The answer appears to be no.

I'm quiet sure you have that wrong. House prices and rents hit the bottom by 2012/2013 and have been rising since.
They've nearly doubled on average in Dublin for example in 2013-20 according to Rory Hearne's piece in the Journal yesterday

Government buildings

yagan wrote: »

Nonsense.

Buyers wanting home were simply outbid by their own government using their tax money and international investment funds.

Failing to understand this is going to get Fianna Fail permanently evicted by the voter.

I agree with you, but my basic premise still stands. The cost of building housing in Ireland is too expensive.

That is why only councils, housing bodies and vulture funds can afford to buy them.

Demand with always outstrip supply from now on. The waiting list will just get longer and longer.

We are well on our way to becoming a nation of renters, because of the high cost of housing construction in this country.

[Deleted User]

EddieN75 wrote: »

Give builders significant tax breaks. Make it profitable to build again.

There'd be political mayhem. FF / FG up to their old trick looking after builders and developers.:pac::pac:

But I can see your point.

Ursabear

derekgine3 wrote: »

Neither am i but enough is enough with this lunacy.

I've emailed over 30 TDs (multiple parties and Ind) within the past 3 months regarding the housing crisis and direct provision whitepaper. I only received four responses, two were from Aontu, one from NP and got a response from Jack Chambers saying they would forward the message on to Jack, this was two months ago.

Not a peep from any TD in FFFG/SF/Greens etc.

Deleting my post as I saw a mod note after responding and scrolling back to where I was .

Shelga

I emailed Darragh O’Brien 3 times in 3 months this year, not an unreasonable amount I don’t think, particularly as I only kept emailing because I was getting no response.

Still have not received one response from him. These people genuinely seem to think they have a god-given right to be in government, yet have no respect for the citizens of this country who desperately need them to put us first, not Apple, Google and endless investment funds. So many of us are about to snap.

[Deleted User]

I've contacted my 5 local TDs. One gave a generic reply (FG), one gave an actual reply, asking for my number, to discuss it further (Ged Nash, Labour) and the other three didn't reply.

Ged hasn't actually rang me yet, but I'm curious to see will he. I'd imagine there's a lot of them being swamped with this. Not sure what good talking to me will do, though, but it's brilliant that he actually wrote a (real) reply. Though in saying that, I've his heart broke (or more specifically, his assistant's heart) with issues where I live, so maybe he's just familiar with me.

Strumms

derekgine3 wrote: »

Honest question, who can we vote for to sort this mess out?

The answer is nobody...

FG, FF, Labour, and the others have shown no appetite to prioritize the wellbeing of the Irish people, Irish citizens Irish taxpayers ahead of new arrivals...

mcsean2163

jay0109 wrote: »

I'm quiet sure you have that wrong. House prices and rents hit the bottom by 2012/2013 and have been rising since.
They've nearly doubled on average in Dublin for example in 2013-20 according to Rory Hearne's piece in the Journal yesterday

House prices recovered and flatlined by 2019. We've had a covid19 surge imo fueled by government spending, leases/ direct purchases.

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/71cfc-99-decrease-in-the-number-of-households-on-social-housing-waiting-list-nationally/

Now that restrictions are easing will be interesting to see what happens to house prices especially if the government stops intervening.

selassie

Shelga wrote: »

I emailed Darragh O’Brien 3 times in 3 months this year, not an unreasonable amount I don’t think, particularly as I only kept emailing because I was getting no response.

Still have not received one response from him. These people genuinely seem to think they have a god-given right to be in government, yet have no respect for the citizens of this country who desperately need them to put us first, not Apple, Google and endless investment funds. So many of us are about to snap.

I emailed him last week and got a response, it was pretty generic about the investment funds though.

Hubertj

mcsean2163 wrote: »

From 2011 - 2020 the population increased by approximately 420,000. Our population density has increased considerably in the last 20 years.

However, that was not reflected in house prices at all and prices seemed to be tapering off until 2020. Was there massive immigration in 2020/2021 or a huge birth rate? The answer appears to be no.

I suspect that all that has to be done to temper the activity of REITs is for the council to stop signing 20 year leases. The government should be restricted to the 10% of new builds and then forced to build. As people have rightly pointed out there are large sites around Dublin and building up closer to the city could be another idea. If council houses are sold there should be stipulation that they cannot be sold to REITs or any landlords with owner occupier as s condition of sale.

I wish all in council houses the best and think they should be supported as best as possible but a balance must be found.

Next up, an adult immigration policy is needed. There needs to be periods where it is restricted so that the needs of all the people already in Ireland are adequately met.

The problem with many REITs is that although they pay dividends, the dividend tax could be paid anywhere and so there is no direct benefit to Ireland. We can't afford to let that money leave untaxed.

So the solution is as follows:

1. Government not allowed to buy in private sector except part v 10%. Government must build and perhaps apprentices could be incentivised to work on these schemes.

2. Transparent immigration policy based around available housing resources and economic needs.

3. Government only allowed sign with REITs for a maximum of five year terms and REITs money must be ringfenced and taxed before leaving Ireland, i.e. employees based outside Ireland, dividends outside Ireland, normal CGT rules on sale etc.

4. Government must fire people if they fail to perform.

P.S. I graduated in 2000. Back then it seemed people worked and went home. Even before covid19 it seemed work followed me home and my spare time was less. I think it's a lot more difficult today and many don't have the joy of building around their house, (I recently worked with the builder and it was great, a privilege and not something I'd moan about or look for a gold star). For me, it's been never ending exams and late nights. I recall about 10 years ago visiting an event in the public sector. I was absolutely stunned. It was like school. The people were bragging about how useless they were and how little they did. Young people now are expected to perform at a very high level in order to get paid and a huge portion of their pay often goes to a person doing very little from an older generation ( the landlord).

The young workers need to be given a better reward for work IMHO

Some excellent points here. Challenge around controlling immigration is that the government will be accused of xenophobia/racism and there is a shortage of skilled workers in STEM. But education and supply of skilled workers in Ireland is improving.

Fully agree with you on our beloved “public servants”. Most seem to have forgotten the purpose of their job and aren’t competent to carry it out. This is part of the problem if/when there is a change of government and policy on housing - you have the same clowns implementing and executing policy. But they are not accountable thanks to our lovely trade unions. Total total sh*tshow.

combat14

Cuckoo funds are spending €53m a week on average to buy up housing estates, mostly in Dublin but increasingly pushing into the commuter belt.

Restricting funds from buying would boost the available supply to ordinary buyers by 50pc at a stroke of a pen, according to Lorcan Sirr, a lecturer in the School of Real Estate and Construction Economics at the Technology University, Dublin.

[Deleted User]

Strumms wrote: »

The answer is nobody...

FG, FF, Labour, and the others have shown no appetite to prioritize the wellbeing of the Irish people, Irish citizens Irish taxpayers ahead of new arrivals...

Very thinly veiled there.....
It's not 'new arrivals ' that have caused any housing shortage.

enricoh

combat14 wrote: »

Cuckoo funds are spending €53m a week on average to buy up housing estates, mostly in Dublin but increasingly pushing into the commuter belt.

Restricting funds from buying would boost the available supply to ordinary buyers by 50pc at a stroke of a pen, according to Lorcan Sirr, a lecturer in the School of Real Estate and Construction Economics at the Technology University, Dublin.

Is there any market at current prices from the public for 50% extra houses? I don't think so and prices would fall as a result as builders try to shift them.

There was a study a year ago that said in new build estates government money trough various charities, council's, cluid etc was buying 40% of all the houses sold. It was 50% in dublin. That crazy figure has likely increased.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Some excellent points here. Challenge around controlling immigration is that the government will be accused of xenophobia/racism and there is a shortage of skilled workers in STEM. But education and supply of skilled workers in Ireland is improving.

It is odd that if we are discussing why MNCs invest in Ireland we hear it is because of our educated/skilled workforce, whereas if we are discussing rising immigration we hear it is because of our uneducated/unskilled workforce.

Idbatterim

Never, ever forget what ffg are doing and have dome for decades. You are a walking euro sign first and foremost... I'll never vote for them again and neither will many of my mates, homeowners or renters. The homeownership shouldered with outrageous mortgages for a lifetime reminder of ffg policy. Same with the scandalous rents...

IAmTheReign

derekgine3 wrote: »

My brother used to reside in Clonee and both of his neighbors received social housing within less than a year upon arrival, they were originally from Nigeria and Sudan. Last time i checked there was no war ongoing in either country between 2012-2018.

You might want to check that again. I've no doubt there's some people claiming refugee status who shouldn't be but Nigeria and Sudan have some of the highest numbers of people displaced through conflict in the world. There's been ongoing violence in both countries for decades.

The Niger delta has basically had ongoing ethnic violence since the 90s with local tribes fighting over control of oil in the region and religious violence between Christians and Muslims is common. The Boko Haram insurgency took place in 2009 and is still ongoing with nearly 2 and a half million people being displaced.

And in Sudan the Darfur conflict started in 2003 and a peace treaty was only signed in 2020. Sudans then president has been prosecuted for genocide and crimes against humanity. The UN estimated around 3 hundred thousand people have been killed and 3 million have been displaced.

yer man!

Deleted User wrote: »

I've contacted my 5 local TDs. One gave a generic reply (FG), one gave an actual reply, asking for my number, to discuss it further (Ged Nash, Labour) and the other three didn't reply.

Ged hasn't actually rang me yet, but I'm curious to see will he. I'd imagine there's a lot of them being swamped with this. Not sure what good talking to me will do, though, but it's brilliant that he actually wrote a (real) reply. Though in saying that, I've his heart broke (or more specifically, his assistant's heart) with issues where I live, so maybe he's just familiar with me.

I emailed all 5 in my constituency too, all of them responded but Fine Gael TD just had a generic template response that she would bring up my concern with the minister's office.

thomas 123

combat14 wrote: »

Cuckoo funds are spending €53m a week on average to buy up housing estates, mostly in Dublin but increasingly pushing into the commuter belt.

Restricting funds from buying would boost the available supply to ordinary buyers by 50pc at a stroke of a pen, according to Lorcan Sirr, a lecturer in the School of Real Estate and Construction Economics at the Technology University, Dublin.

That Is a mad statistic...

Assuming 500k per house 106 houses taken off the market per week is crazy.