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Racing Uncertainties

[Deleted User]

I am starting this with the intention of posting selections for Horse Racing.

Nowt is certain in this game. Hence the title.

One to start off with.

Wolverhampton 7.15 Zafaranah

Mrs Barclay's Mare had a return to form last week when 2nd at the course over the extended mile. The horse has won before at this time of year, and is twice a Course and Distance winner off ratings higher than what she's assessed at tonight.

Available to back at 15/2 and bigger, I give it an each way chance here. Drawn 9 of 11 aint ideal, but I had no say in the box allocation.

I wish myself the best of luck with my thread, and hope to provide many winners and big priced placers.

That's all for now.

Gluck

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[Deleted User]

30/04

Running P & L +64.2pts

Invested 4pts

Returns - zilch

Invested 4pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 4pts

Running invested total - 2,005 pts

Running P & L +60.2pts

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

May day Saturday 1 May

5.20 Hexham Poucor 22/1 ew , Largy Mouth 9/1 ew

2 against the field in this seller, where I think the favs (no's 1 & 2) are opposable.

Gluck

Backed into 15/2 , and 9/4 (fav) respectively... And narys the place between them

Original 1st and 2nd favs finished in that order filling the first two spots

That's the way it goes

[Deleted User]

Nothing to write home about from selections recent

[Deleted User]

01 May

Running P & L +60.2pts

Invested 12pts.

Returns:

2.40 Nugget (done ew @ 10/3) places at a fifth the odds with a 15p rule 4 returning 1.5pts
3.50 Dick Datchery (done ew @ 9/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 2.8pts

Invested 12pts - returns 4.3pts

Loss for the day 7.7pts

Running invested total - 2,017 pts

Running P & L +52.5pts

[Deleted User]

01 May

Update to include AP bets

Running P & L +52.5pts

06/01 Battleground done ew for 2000 Guineas

Invested 2pts

Returns - none

Invested 2pts - returns 0pts

Loss 2pts

Running invested total - 2,019 pts

Running P & L +50.5pts

[Deleted User]

^^^

Forgot to include that one earlier. Would have put it in, but anyway one more AP bet to go (the last of the bunch - unless I pick more) , and that's High Definition for Derby - also done 6th Jan. 6/1 ew. Still in betting atm.

Had a look at today's cards and couldn't find any. Will try and get a few picks during the week.

[Deleted User]

3.10 Salisbury Forever Forward 12/1 ew

A nice price. Has the benefit of an albeit moderate comeback run. Will hope he can nab 1 of the 2 places. The fav No Recollection definitely the one to beat. Don't see any obvious contenders outside of Alan King's colt. Might back the selection w/o fav too...

[Deleted User]

4.25 Hamilton Arch Moon 7/1 ew

Has drifted out to a backable price. Another race with just two places on offer. A few here with solid claims. As well as the price, the selection has ran well before after an absence. Has ran well on good ground before, when 2nd at Ayr in Sept 2019. Will be his first time tackling good to firm. His sire Sea The Moon seems to produce offspring that like proper good ground. Selection is also the highest rated. Has maybe a question or two, does the pick, but they're good questions imo. Paul Mulrennan top jock here too. Arch Moon will do me here. Won't be too disapponted if today's not his day, but the price appeals.

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

3.10 Salisbury Forever Forward 12/1 ew

A nice price. Has the benefit of an albeit moderate comeback run. Will hope he can nab 1 of the 2 places. The fav No Recollection definitely the one to beat. Don't see any obvious contenders outside of Alan King's colt. Might back the selection w/o fav too...

No joy there.. Was produced late to make his run, but wasn't good enough..

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

4.25 Hamilton Arch Moon 7/1 ew

Has drifted out to a backable price. Another race with just two places on offer. A few here with solid claims. As well as the price, the selection has ran well before after an absence. Has ran well on good ground before, when 2nd at Ayr in Sept 2019. Will be his first time tackling good to firm. His sire Sea The Moon seems to produce offspring that like proper good ground. Selection is also the highest rated. Has maybe a question or two, does the pick, but they're good questions imo. Paul Mulrennan top jock here too. Arch Moon will do me here. Won't be too disapponted if today's not his day, but the price appeals.

Nothing there either

[Deleted User]

02/05

Running P & L +50.5pts

Invested 4pts

Returns - naught

Invested 4pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 4pts

Running invested total - 2,023 pts

Running P & L +46.5pts

[Deleted User]

4.51 Windsor Mabre 25/1 ew

A standing dish. I reckon his light's been hiding under a bushel for a long while now. Racing on the AW for his last dozen or so runs, and, in a lot of them, he's been held up out the back. Has won on turf before; though it was over shorter and on heavier going, but I'll still keep backing/put him up here, as I feel this 4yr old grey has a bit more to offer.

[Deleted User]

2.21 Beverley High Security 10/1 ew

[Deleted User]

2.56 Beverley Lincoln Red 16/1 ew

A recent winner at Southwell 2 runs back in December. Has a bit of an absence to overcome, but am hoping that won't be a problem. From a few of his runs on the turf, he shaped as if an extended 7fs on good ground will be suitable.

[Deleted User]

3.15 Warwick Fil D'ariane 20/1 ew

Not without a chance at a decent price in a race where many (including the pick) are making their chase debuts. Has ran at the course before, and I imagine he'll be held up out the back. Seems to be a few who like to get on with things in this race, and he could well be passing a few out late - that's the thinking anyway. Most of his runs (hurdles) have been at two miles or thereabouts. Lto he ran over close on 2 1/2m (weakened late on) at Sandown. So, that interests me too, in that the trainer might (don't know, as I'm only guessing) think it'll set him up nicely for his chasing bow over 2m.

Gluk all

[Deleted User]

3.41 Tregony 25/1 ew

A tentative late one... No P & L

[Deleted User]

Nowt so far..

[Deleted User]

03/05

Running P & L +46.5pts

Invested 8pts

Returns - none

Invested 8pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 8pts

Running invested total - 2,031 pts

Running P & L +38.5pts

[Deleted User]

05 May

6.40 Kempton Espresso Freddo 7/1 win

Goes well at the course on this standard to slow going. He is drawn one, so he has a low draw, and, as he likes to be held up, I am hoping that he will be able to keep his rails' position. About two thirds of the field appear to like to get on with it, or race prominent; so I'm hoping they will be well thinned out come late in the piece, to make it as easy as possible for the selection to come with a winning late run; whether it's inside (hopefully, as it's shorter) on the rails, or out wide. Barring bad luck; if he gives his usual running, then he has a more than fair chance of troubling the judge.

Gluck

[Deleted User]

4.45 Chester Redrosezorro 80/1 ew 1/5 4 places on offer.

Taking a punt he'll break well from his poor draw in 14, and try make all. Should like the trip and the ground anyway.

[Deleted User]

5.20 Fontwell Big 'n Better 12/1 ew , Goodbye 12/1 ew

2 against the field. Both ran well lto. Good enough for me. 5 places on offer.

[Deleted User]

7.20 Fontwell Martha Brae 10/3 win.

A course winner on soft-soft/heavy. Has won on good. She can try and make all, and am hoping that's what she'll do here. Price about right.

[Deleted User]

5.50 Fontwell Schnabel 11/4 win

2 time course winner over the larger obstacles. Will like the ground. Price will do in a 5 horse race.

Gluck

[Deleted User]

8.10 Kempton

Am leaving this race alone (for now anyway), as can only get 5/2 (not many a/c's). Horse is The Nosey Parker for Richard Hughes. Only the three go to post, and no obvious pace on. A couple of poor runs recently. The 2nd last was at Southwell over 6, where she pretty much lost all chance at the start. The latest was probably too short, and in a better race in a 5f sprint in a Class 4 at Chelmsford.

Her 2 runs before that were good, when she won both of them. The one at Lingfield over 6fs reading well in the context of today's race. A bit to take on trust, and I'd like it if she were 10/3, but 3s would be okay. 11/4 general now, and 3s with 365, I think.

Either way, no bet atm, and the fav Aramis Grey at 8/13 is opposable at them cramped odds.

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

05 May

6.40 Kempton Espresso Freddo 7/1 win

Goes well at the course on this standard to slow going. He is drawn one, so he has a low draw, and, as he likes to be held up, I am hoping that he will be able to keep his rails' position. About two thirds of the field appear to like to get on with it, or race prominent; so I'm hoping they will be well thinned out come late in the piece, to make it as easy as possible for the selection to come with a winning late run; whether it's inside (hopefully, as it's shorter) on the rails, or out wide. Barring bad luck; if he gives his usual running, then he has a more than fair chance of troubling the judge.

Gluck

Duggie didn't try to hard.. Will keep an eye out for this one over similar trip and conditions. Hopefully have a better jock up too. A good ride from Doug, until about 2fs out. Mid-div on the rails - went wider to "come with his run" :rolleyes: about two out - 'Making shapes' is all he was doing. Never tried too hard on his mount; that looked as if it had more to give, when in the clear. That's how it looked to me anyway. Hopefully a 'proper' jock - like Willie - up
next time.

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

8.10 Kempton

Am leaving this race alone (for now anyway), as can only get 5/2 (not many a/c's). Horse is The Nosey Parker for Richard Hughes. Only the three go to post, and no obvious pace on. A couple of poor runs recently. The 2nd last was at Southwell over 6, where she pretty much lost all chance at the start. The latest was probably too short, and in a better race in a 5f sprint in a Class 4 at Chelmsford.

Her 2 runs before that were good, when she won both of them. The one at Lingfield over 6fs reading well in the context of today's race. A bit to take on trust, and I'd like it if she were 10/3, but 3s would be okay. 11/4 general now, and 3s with 365, I think.

Either way, no bet atm, and the fav Aramis Grey at 8/13 is opposable at them cramped odds.

Win bet on this one - 3s got

[Deleted User]

Running P & L +38.5pts

Invested 10pts

Returns:

5.50 Schnabel (done win @ 11/4) wins returning 3.7pts

Invested 10pts - returns 3.7pts

Loss for the day 6.3pts

Running invested total - 2,041 pts

Running P & L +32.2pts

[Deleted User]

Hittin a slump in the last two weeks. Have dropped 42.6pts from the last 81pts invested

[Deleted User]

06/05

1.55 Huntingdon Liffeydale Dreamer 20/1 ew . 1/5 5 places available

Nice price this one.. Had 11s in me head when I had a (briefish

- but good enough) look at the form. Going is currently described as good, and if it turns out a bit softer; then all the better. Quite a few positives here to give hope to backers of Sam England's mare.

A Class 5 she runs in tomorrow. Most of her previous outings in English (was trained in Ireland until last year) handicaps have been in Class 4s. Lto over a similar; albeit slightly shorter trip, in one of them Class 4s was poor enough. The going that day was good (good to firm in places) at Worcester, just under 2wks ago.

She's only won once under rules, and that was last summer at Cartmel on softer ground, over about 3fs shorter. She's going the right way though from a punting perspective (dropping down the handicap

) . Regards staying the trip, there is a small question mark beside that one. If it were a chase; less so, but over hurdles, perhaps 2 1/2m would be more suitable.

It'll only be her 10th run in England - between chasing and hurdling. She has decent form in Class 4s between both spheres with a win, and a few 2nd and 3rd places. Her last run in that aforementioned Class 4 on proper good ground was in a hurdles' race. Her previous 5 runs were in chases, so with the combo of the drop to a Class 5, easier ground, and it being her 2nd hurdles' outing in a row; she's a confident pick for me here. Just the 'staying' factor has a slight negative about it.

Gluck all

[Deleted User]

3.25 Huntingdon Scaramucci 9/2 ew

A hopeful ew pick here. The deserved fav Jimmi Chew is the one to beat, but at slight odds on, he's definitely underpriced, and opposable regardless. The selection has had four goes over fences. The first was decent when coming 2nd, but that was over 2m on heavy going. He's been upped in trip since, with little success. His middle 2 chase runs were poor, but lto saw an improvement of sorts. He didn't seem to make any mistakes, but didn't stay either. That was over a shorter trip, so, facing a longer trip doesn't bode well; at least not on paper. It looks ok to me as he showed improved form, and, like the above selection, the 'staying of the trip' is a worry, but, with his improved form, a clear round lto, and the first-time equipment coming out in the form of the blinkers and the tonguestrap, he rates a bet for me.

The price aint great, but I'll accept that when trying to find selections at decent prices; that 'value' , or perceived value isn't always to be had. At least not for me, as someone who wants to find as many darts as possible to throw. That being said, the price is sh1t

.

Gluck