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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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timmyntc

fliball123 wrote: »

Well then it has not been addressed correctly no one wants to be less well off than they are that includes the 70% of people who own a property.

Also step back and think about it most parents will do their best to look after their kids themselves instead of the state stepping in more chance of a rich daddy and mammy looking after young Charles than leaving it to the state to give them a hand up.

If I had a few quid I would be buying a few gaffs giving them to the government for 20/25 years and using the money gained you could be funneling cash into young Charles bank account without any fuss and without raising any red flags with the tax man and Charles is sorted and when you die Charles gets a nice inheritance, he will have to pay inheritance tax after 335k. Now if you have 2 or 3 kids Charles, Porshe and Queenie thats nearly a million going to your kids untouched by the state. Now ask yourself the question as a parent do you really want the value you of your house dropping? To think people always always put the needs of the social good instead of their own interests is just barmy more times than not they look after themselves and couldnt give a flying feck how anyone else is.

These hypotheticals have no bearing on reality - you've just created a situation in your head to justify your pov.

Most people who own 1 home (that they live in) cannot realise any gains in equity from prices rising. If they want to trade up (or down) there is little gain there, because not only did their property raise in value, but all others did too.

They cannot remortgage the house to take advantage of the extra equity and buy something nice for themselves - those days are long gone. Banks wont do that anymore.

So I guess it all comes down to inheritance - but yet again, what good is a big inheritance from the family home because:
1) increase in price means its more likely to hit the CGT threshold
2) increase in price means that more of the inheritance will be spent buying a house anyways

So there really is no benefit.
The only people to benefit from the increase in house prices is speculators/investors - but the 70% of homeowners in the state are not all investors or speculators. Majority only own 1 home and that is the family home.

Galwayhurl

Cilldara_2000 wrote: »

Those of us who are more concerned with good outcomes and what's best for the country would hope to get SF into power because the centre-right consensus backed up by Labour has been shown to be completely unworkable and unaffordable for the ordinary people. They literally couldn't be any worse than what has gone on so far. Hoping that they get blamed for a mess not of their making is pathetic.

Also, had to laugh at this quote in the article on rte.ie:

https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2021/0504/1213801-mullen-park-investors-first-time-buyers-property-housing-estate/

After being locked out of the housing estate, the Prime Time crew was later permitted into Mullen Park to interview Damien Dillon, an agent with Dillon Marshall Property Consultants, which is working with the developer.

"Institutional landlords are being painted as big vulture funds that are coming in, but they're trying to help the housing crisis," he said.

This guy takes us all to be fools. He's probably right considering how long we've allowed this to go on.

While it is becoming more likely by the day that SF will get into power in the next election, I haven't heard Eoin O Broin state anything hardcore about REITs. He has only said that they need to be taxed more. I'm not sure that that is enough.

The Social Democrats' Cian O Callaghan has said that they should be banned from buying property altogether. The latter will get my vote based on this alone.

fliball123

yagan wrote: »

Yesterday added a new twist for the die hard self serving Fianna Fail voter in that their own property value may be seriously threatened if a vulture fund buys the house next door and a feral mob is moved in.

It's white terror for the landed Fianna Fail voter to have social housing as a neighbour. They loved it when vulture funds raised their property price, but they don't want vulture funds picking their neighbours.

Well good enough for them it will put paid to the amount of Nimbyism in the country

fliball123

timmyntc wrote: »

This argument has been addressed umpteen times here already

70% of the population are not looking to sell up and move abroad, so won't see any huge benefit from rising prices.

I'd say substantially more people of that 70% have children looking to buy - than have 2nd or 3rd properties that they can sell and avail of the equity.

Well then it has not been addressed correctly no one wants to be less well off than they are that includes the 70% of people who own a property.

Also step back and think about it most parents will do their best to look after their kids themselves instead of the state stepping in more chance of a rich daddy and mammy looking after young Charles than leaving it to the state to give them a hand up.

If I had a few quid I would be buying a few gaffs giving them to the government for 20/25 years and using the money gained you could be funneling cash into young Charles bank account without any fuss and without raising any red flags with the tax man and Charles is sorted and when you die Charles gets a nice inheritance, he will have to pay inheritance tax after 335k. Now if you have 2 or 3 kids Charles, Porshe and Queenie thats nearly a million going to your kids untouched by the state. Now ask yourself the question as a parent do you really want the value you of your house dropping? To think people will always put the needs of the social good instead of their own interests is just barmy more times than not they look after themselves and couldnt give a flying feck how anyone else is.

Wanderer78

timmyntc wrote: »

if its a fact then why not present some evidence?

You continually derail these threads with baseless broad statements such as these but never have anything to back them up.

theres loads of facts on this, our whole approach to housing has been to completely facilitate asset owners, in particular property and land owners, nearly all of the stats point towards this, particularly in relation to prices, this is exactly what happens when you allow the fire sectors to dictate your economy, what data would you like?

timmyntc

Wanderer78 wrote: »

it is the fact, that we continually prioritise these owners needs, particularly the value of their property, over every ones else needs, has lead us to here, and we re still doing it

if its a fact then why not present some evidence?

You continually derail these threads with baseless broad statements such as these but never have anything to back them up.

yagan

fliball123 wrote: »

FF are going nowhere, while people will be snorting fire in public behind the scenes almost 70% of the population own property why would they want to see their financial situation diminished. The REITS and the likes are pushing their balance sheet up.. Now I am not saying this is right but you will find FF are worse than cockroaches even if you squish its head it can continue living.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/ireland-has-lowest-rate-of-home-ownership-in-almost-50-years-dail-told-38278560.html

Yesterday added a new twist for the die hard self serving Fianna Fail voter in that their own property value may be seriously threatened if a vulture fund buys the house next door and a feral mob is moved in.

It's white terror for the landed Fianna Fail voter to have social housing as a neighbour. They loved it when vulture funds raised their property price, but they don't want vulture funds picking their neighbours.

Wanderer78

timmyntc wrote: »

This argument has been addressed umpteen times here already

70% of the population are not looking to sell up and move abroad, so won't see any huge benefit from rising prices.

I'd say substantially more people of that 70% have children looking to buy - than have 2nd or 3rd properties that they can sell and avail of the equity.

it is the fact, that we continually prioritise these owners needs, particularly the value of their property, over every ones else needs, has lead us to here, and we re still doing it

yagan

Evil_g wrote: »

Are we just calling everything a vulture fund now?

I think Rent Farmers probably has more coinage considering our common agrarian roots.

timmyntc

fliball123 wrote: »

FF are going no where, while people will be snorting fire in public behind the scenes almost 70% of the population own property why would they want to see their financial situation diminished. The REITS and the likes are pushing their balance sheet up.. Now I am not saying this is right but you will find FF are worse than cockroaches even if you squish its head it can continue living.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/ireland-has-lowest-rate-of-home-ownership-in-almost-50-years-dail-told-38278560.html

This argument has been addressed umpteen times here already

70% of the population are not looking to sell up and move abroad, so won't see any huge benefit from rising prices.

I'd say substantially more people of that 70% have children looking to buy - than have 2nd or 3rd properties that they can sell and avail of the equity.

Wanderer78

Evil_g wrote: »

Are we just calling everything a vulture fund now?

the issue is the monopolisation of our markets, not just by vultures, it has been clearly obvious that this was going to happen, so here we are

fliball123

yagan wrote: »

Forgive as it adds nothing to the discussion but this morning I woke up feeling very relieved that there is outrage.

Under the last Fianna Fail led government I was pissing in the wind with family, friends and colleagues about the property bubble, but at least now they're all outraged by Fianna Fail's latest housing disaster. It's weird but I find strangely comforting.

Maybe this time Fianna Fail will be dispatched entirely at the polls as even their most conservative secure home owning voter must be wondering if some vulture fund will buy the house for sale next door and move in problem tenants.

FF are going nowhere, while people will be snorting fire in public behind the scenes almost 70% of the population own property why would they want to see their financial situation diminished. The REITS and the likes are pushing their balance sheet up.. Now I am not saying this is right but you will find FF are worse than cockroaches even if you squish its head it can continue living.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/ireland-has-lowest-rate-of-home-ownership-in-almost-50-years-dail-told-38278560.html

Evil_g

Are we just calling everything a vulture fund now?

Wanderer78

yagan wrote: »

Forgive as it adds nothing to the discussion but this morning I woke up feeling very relieved that there is outrage.

Under the last Fianna Fail led government I was pissing in the wind with family, friends and colleagues about the property bubble, but at least now they're all outraged by Fianna Fail's latest housing disaster. It's weird but I find strangely comforting.

Maybe this time Fianna Fail will be dispatched entirely at the polls as even their most conservative secure home owning voter must be wondering if some vulture fund will buy the house for sale next door and move in problem tenants.

ive been outraged for years over this, this is absolutely disgraceful stuff from both ffg, but also supporting government parties and others, this problem is now so serious, it in fact is jeopardising every aspect of our economy and society

yagan

Forgive as it adds nothing to the discussion but this morning I woke up feeling very relieved that there is outrage.

Under the last Fianna Fail led government I was pissing in the wind warning family, friends and colleagues about the property bubble, but at least now they're all outraged by Fianna Fail's latest housing disaster. It's weird but I find it strangely comforting.

Maybe this time Fianna Fail will be dispatched entirely at the polls as even their most conservative secure home owning voter must be wondering if some vulture fund will buy the house for sale next door and move in problem tenants.

JimmyVik

Ozark707 wrote: »

This is a tough one for the REIT's. If you are that young professional paying top dollar and then HAP is used to fill the rest you might consider moving on when your lease it up. On the other hand as you can see most of the new builds are priced out of the reach of these young professionals so the vacancy level is very high. The question boils down to how long they can sit on the vacant ones. Either way if HAP was not the renter of last resort at such high prices we would have considerably cheaper rents.

I think thats exactly it.
They are in negotiations with councils to rent the empty ones for 25 years to them for a huge price.
And even if they dont come to an arrangement, come the autumn there will be a huge influx of people into Dublin form all over Ireland and abroad and they will rent them easily then.

Ozark707

Cal4567 wrote: »

Two separate situations. The first one is a REIT whose role is to buy up swathes of residential properties and let them. Their business model is to let to high end professionals given the open market rents they can achieve. Dublin has been very attractive to them in that regard. A whole host of well paid tech workers coming into Ireland, never mind other young professionals who just want/need somewhere to live, as they work in Dublin. Please some one correct me but I am also hearing, albeit 2nd hand, that they are offloading some of their properties to the local authorities for social housing or are they taking on HAP tenants, to fill some of their empties? Not sure.

This is a tough one for the REIT's. If you are that young professional paying top dollar and then HAP is used to fill the rest you might consider moving on when your lease it up. On the other hand as you can see most of the new builds are priced out of the reach of these young professionals so the vacancy level is very high. The question boils down to how long they can sit on the vacant ones. Either way if HAP was not the renter of last resort at such high prices we would have considerably cheaper rents.

PommieBast

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

Now it seems that 1 in 3 shops on Henry St, Dublin may stay closed even after restrictions ease. With all restrictions easing by July, it is worrying what sort of economic fallout we will see from covid (as we have not really seen much, if any, economic fallout as of yet due to government supports).

I live in that general area and have already seen several retail units vacated. Think i'll go out at lunchtime and do a quick count..

Cal4567

Reins wrote: »

Or his other quote " Not everyone want's to buy their own home " :rolleyes:

I love it (NOT) when they bring in a local agent or worse still a gormless local Cllr (standard if it’s a local tragedy). They tend to add very little to the conversation.

Developers and their agents are queuing up to these funds and the funds are cherrypicking. Mullen Park was the first example outside the M50 as well.

Two separate situations. The first one is a REIT whose role is to buy up swathes of residential properties and let them. Their business model is to let to high end professionals given the open market rents they can achieve. Dublin has been very attractive to them in that regard. A whole host of well paid tech workers coming into Ireland, never mind other young professionals who just want/need somewhere to live, as they work in Dublin. Please some one correct me but I am also hearing, albeit 2nd hand, that they are offloading some of their properties to the local authorities for social housing or are they taking on HAP tenants, to fill some of their empties? Not sure.

The second is the Fund who is acquiring whole developments and then leasing them to the local authority or AHB for up to 25 years, entirely for social housing. They are not buying anything but will only do so, once the Council says they will take them on. I did hear from a friend of one developer who has been trying to offload his site to a Fund, but they won’t take it as the Council don’t want it. There are also now examples coming out of the woodwork of business entities buying one off properties across Dublin, batching these up as portfolios and entering into lease deals with the Councils. These guys are then looking to sell on these portfolios to Funds.

And we’ve forgotten all of a sudden about Co-Op living. That was last year’s bête noire.

Wanderer78

Robson99 wrote: »

Something needs to happen. The cost of building has probably gone up 10% + in the last 12 months. That probably adds another 20k to the cost of building a 3 bed semi

there has been countless respected advisors telling the government what to do, and more importantly, what not to do, over the years, they are not listening

ronan lyons yesterday:

'Five years ago, I appeared before the Oireachtas Committee on Housing, on how to implement 'A Right to a Home for All'. Unfortunately, it is as relevant today as then - perhaps unsurprisingly so, given its three key recommendations remain untouched'

https://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/committee/dail/32/committee_on_housing_and_homelessness/submissions/2016/2016-05-03_submission-dr-ronan-lyons-tcd_en.pdf

Villa05

combat14 wrote:

any thoughts on ff/fg price caps e.g. 300,000 clare, 250,000 roscommon, 225,000 leitrim and so on...

They seem at the higher end of average prices, would be interesting to contrast them against the daft report and actual selling prices

It appears that social is at the highest price, affordable is the next level down and the scraps for everyone else, who of course will be funding this scam. When it will obviously crash you will be funding that also

This is 100% developer/investor led as a result of lobbying from the same sector as Davys where the entire management team where proven to be involved in fraud against there own customers.

In many cases the state will be handing over the land to build

Seperatly who pays more for an apartment than a house especially when apartments look like being predominantly social and rental

There appears to be a media attack on funds buying up lately. They can't fill their lucrative property pages and extract there 30 pieces of silver from the market. This appears to have spooked the Gov, have they made a critical error.
It will be interesting to see how it plays out

Robson99

Wanderer78 wrote: »

the government has to step in to sort this, in particularly in regards the financing of building, but we need the private sector to do most of the building

Something needs to happen. The cost of building has probably gone up 10% + in the last 12 months. That probably adds another 20k to the cost of building a 3 bed semi

Wanderer78

Robson99 wrote: »

And who is going to pay the developers to build them.?
If developers are not making money why should they build them ?

the government has to step in to sort this, in particularly in regards the financing of building, but we need the private sector to do most of the building

JimmyVik

Who would have thought a few years ago that affordable would mean half a million euro :eek:

Robson99

combat14 wrote: »

any thoughts on ff/fg price caps e.g. 300,000 clare, 250,000 roscommon, 225,000 leitrim and so on...

Housing Minister denies price caps for affordable homes will be price targets for developers

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40281389.html%3ftype=amp

surely these prices for parts of the country are ridiculously high and are going to once again do nothing to help new home buyers

And who is going to pay the developers to build them.?
If developers are not making money why should they build them ?

thomas 123

It looks like the shared equity scheme will not apply to anyone self building - in my opinion removing any positive value from the scheme and just proving its cash for developers to be saddled onto anyone buying.

Wanderer78

handlemaster wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2021/0504/1213801-mullen-park-investors-first-time-buyers-property-housing-estate/

Reading this its like its forgotten thst the government has succeed in driving away the small time local landlords. Housing has to be provided for remters also and investment institutions have been encouraged to be the provider.

yes, this is exactly what happens when you allow major sectors such as the fire sectors(finance, insurance, and real state) in control, i.e. it causes a monopolisation of markets, and a further increase in wealth inequality, we re truly screwed now, the only way out of this trap is major state intervention

combat14

any thoughts on ff/fg price caps e.g. 300,000 clare, 250,000 roscommon, 225,000 leitrim and so on...

Housing Minister denies price caps for affordable homes will be price targets for developers

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40281389.html%3ftype=amp

surely these prices for parts of the country are ridiculously high and are going to once again do nothing to help new home buyers

handlemaster

https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2021/0504/1213801-mullen-park-investors-first-time-buyers-property-housing-estate/

Reading this its like its forgotten thst the government has succeed in driving away the small time local landlords. Housing has to be provided for remters also and investment institutions have been encouraged to be the provider.

Beigepaint

standardg60 wrote: »

The FG and FF housing policy is the SF policy, they are copying it because they are fearful of losing power.

Dumb take of the month award.

O’Brien’s media appearances this week will be on reeling in the years, with the caption “Fianna Fail return just 11 TDs after post covid snap election”

What song will play over it?

“Fianna Fail leader Jack Chambers states the New housing plan would have worked… after three years or so”