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Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

d51984

The current Coronavirus epidemic seems to be getting worse by the day, just wondering what complications if any may happen in the not to distant future.

Can we start taking peoples temperatures on arrival in to the country? Open up isolation centers in major cities? Will Aer Lingus and Ryanair start suspending flights, mainly to Italy so far?

This thing is going to get worse,and now its not a question of weather it arrives in Ireland but a matter of how long until it arrives.

Thoughts?

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Kcormahs

Inquitus wrote: »

Same applies to pretty much all short haul in Europe, BA v Aer Lingus v Ryanair et al. There are a few notable exceptions like Lufthansa who will still offer you a nice bottle of Warsteiner, but for most Dublin outbound flights the only difference is how far the walk to the gate is.

Lufthansa group is introducing Buy on board services on SH across all its 4 flag airlines including Lufthansa (Brussels Airlines had already adopted this much before it was acquired by the group).

Thank covid19 for that one.

https://www.exyuaviation.com/2020/11/lufthansa-group-to-adopt-buy-on-board.html?m=1

cson

I'd actually take an FR seat (and moreso EI) over the genuinely horrendous Recaro slimlines that BA put into their A32Xneo's. I had the misfortune of having to an FCO-LHR segment on one a couple of years ago. Comparable to Spirit Airlines.

PommieBast

cson wrote: »

I'd actually take an FR seat (and moreso EI) over the genuinely horrendous Recaro slimlines that BA put into their A32Xneo's. I had the misfortune of having to an FCO-LHR segment on one a couple of years ago. Comparable to Spirit Airlines.

My lasting memory of BA is them not offloading hold luggage at LHR for something like 4 hours, and as a result missed the last trains/coaches. Cue £125 taxi ride..

L1011

General FR/EI/BA/Etc comparisons to another thread please

davebuck

Not really good news for Ireland in the current conditions quote from the DAA below.

A year ago Dublin ranked fifth in Europe in terms of connectivity to the US and we are now at number 15 and that’s slipping quickly.”

The greater the uncertainty, the more likely airlines were to reduce services into Ireland, he said: “About 10 days ago a very large US carrier significantly restricted capacity into Ireland for the summer of ’21. For goodness sake, Aer Lingus have just repositioned some of their aircraft into Manchester.

arccosh

unfortunately it pivots on an EU consensus on opening up, which pivots on the vaccine rollout...

May was supposed to be the big month air travel starts to resume, but with low vaccine rollout numbers across the EU, I see that slipping....

all eyes will be on the UK, as they still seem to be on course.... but without the EU fully on board, their opening up will be hindered also.

Beechwoodspark

PommieBast wrote: »

My lasting memory of BA is them not offloading hold luggage at LHR for something like 4 hours, and as a result missed the last trains/coaches. Cue £125 taxi ride..

Had a similar dismal experience with BA. Never again

Chris_5339762

arccosh wrote: »

unfortunately it pivots on an EU consensus on opening up, which pivots on the vaccine rollout...

...and this governments inevitably dallying over a re-opening of travel, regardless of EU rules

Inquitus

The EU Commission has recommended easing restrictions on non-essential travel from overseas.

Under the plans, anyone who has received the last dose of an EU-approved vaccine at least two weeks beforehand will be permitted to travel.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56970398

Requires 2 doses of all 2 dose vaccines and only granted 2 weeks after the 2nd dose, at least in it's current proposed form, this seems to apply to those from outside the bloc, it is not clear what the agreement is for intra-EU travel and how Schengen v Non-Schengen may impact things. Still pretty grey but looking more hopeful!

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0503/1213468-european-travel-commission/

HTCOne

Inquitus wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56970398

Requires 2 doses of all 2 dose vaccines and only granted 2 weeks after the 2nd dose, at least in it's current proposed form, this seems to apply to those from outside the bloc, it is not clear what the agreement is for intra-EU travel and how Schengen v Non-Schengen may impact things. Still pretty grey but looking more hopeful!

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0503/1213468-european-travel-commission/

I can see Ireland failing to take part in any scheme allowing unrestricted travel for those fully vaccinated for a few months yet, only because those who’ll be waiting til Q3 for their second dose would likely go ballistic.

Were it up to me, we’d have announced it already, and be doing everything we can to attract the yanks in like the Spanish, Greeks, French & Italians have already announced from June.

Noxegon

HTCOne wrote: »

I can see Ireland failing to take part in any scheme allowing unrestricted travel for those fully vaccinated for a few months yet, only because those who’ll be waiting til Q3 for their second dose would likely go ballistic.

Based on what's being reported today it's beginning to look like those under the age of 50 are looking at Q3 for their first dose. If it's AstraZeneca, then they're looking at Q4 before they're fully vaccinated. These people will have little choice but to holiday in Ireland.

If we open up to tourists from abroad, it's going to send the demand for hotels and accommodation skyrocketing – even as a large portion of our own population remains unable to travel.

If I was a politician thinking about reelection this would be at the forefront of my mind.

Chris_5339762

Noxegon wrote: »

Based on what's being reported today it's beginning to look like those under the age of 50 are looking at Q3 for their first dose. If it's AstraZeneca, then they're looking at Q4 before they're fully vaccinated. These people will have little choice but to holiday in Ireland.

If we open up to tourists from abroad, it's going to send the demand for hotels and accommodation skyrocketing – even as a large portion of our own population remains unable to travel.

If I was a politician thinking about reelection this would be at the forefront of my mind.

Nah, we'll be June/July for a first dose for everyone who wants it I still think. Dose 2 will be later for AZs than Pfizers sure. But we'll be done by Q3.

Noxegon

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

Nah, we'll be June/July for a first dose for everyone who wants it I still think. Dose 2 will be later for AZs than Pfizers sure. But we'll be done by Q3.

I admire your optimism – but I'd point out anyone receiving AstraZeneca in the first week of July (which is Q3) won't get their second until the end of September.

Blut2

Noxegon wrote: »

Based on what's being reported today it's beginning to look like those under the age of 50 are looking at Q3 for their first dose. If it's AstraZeneca, then they're looking at Q4 before they're fully vaccinated. These people will have little choice but to holiday in Ireland.

If we open up to tourists from abroad, it's going to send the demand for hotels and accommodation skyrocketing – even as a large portion of our own population remains unable to travel.

If I was a politician thinking about reelection this would be at the forefront of my mind.

Unvaccinated people under 50 will still be fully able to holiday in the EU (with the green/travel certificate) as long as they have evidence of covid recovery, or a negative PCR test within 72 hours of the flight.

Plenty of other countries have similar entry requirements - or even more loose - too.

Noxegon

Blut2 wrote: »

Unvaccinated people under 50 will still be fully able to holiday in the EU (with the green/travel certificate) as long as they have evidence of covid recovery, or a negative PCR test within 72 hours of the flight.

If and only if they're prepared to risk getting stranded in whatever country they happen to be in if they happen to test positive.

HTCOne

Blut2 wrote: »

Unvaccinated people under 50 will still be fully able to holiday in the EU (with the green/travel certificate) as long as they have evidence of covid recovery, or a negative PCR test within 72 hours of the flight.

Plenty of other countries have similar entry requirements - or even more loose - too.

I agree with what you say but just like last year it won’t be the outward bound restrictions that will be the issue, but the ones you face when you get home. The rest of Europe has enough excess capacity in their health services to handle the minor spikes in hospital cases among younger people that will result from opening up tourism and hospitality before full populations are vaccinated. We apparently don’t and this will be the noose around our necks in our industry this summer.

PommieBast

Noxegon wrote: »

Based on what's being reported today it's beginning to look like those under the age of 50 are looking at Q3 for their first dose. If it's AstraZeneca, then they're looking at Q4 before they're fully vaccinated. These people will have little choice but to holiday in Ireland.

I suspect a lot of people will be unable to travel due to lack of valid passports. So far all signs are the passport office remaining closed for many more months.

Cookiemunster

PommieBast wrote: »

I suspect a lot of people will be unable to travel due to lack of valid passports. So far all signs are the passport office remaining closed for many more months.

The passport office has been added to the list of essential services. It won't be closed any longer.

Cookiemunster

Noxegon wrote: »

Based on what's being reported today it's beginning to look like those under the age of 50 are looking at Q3 for their first dose. If it's AstraZeneca, then they're looking at Q4 before they're fully vaccinated. These people will have little choice but to holiday in Ireland.

If we open up to tourists from abroad, it's going to send the demand for hotels and accommodation skyrocketing – even as a large portion of our own population remains unable to travel.

If I was a politician thinking about reelection this would be at the forefront of my mind.

Whatever about the second does, I haven't seen anything to say that under 50s won't begin to get their first doses from early June. There's no shortage or restrictions on the Pfizer vaccine which is 3/4 of all the doses we're receiving in Q2.

Jacovs

PommieBast wrote: »

I suspect a lot of people will be unable to travel due to lack of valid passports. So far all signs are the passport office remaining closed for many more months.

They are open as of today. Their twitter was also updated. Aiming to have all renewals issued in May. All new applications in June. Supporting documents returned 10 working days AFTER they send your new passport. Makes no sense, should return the supporting documents first soon as they are dont with them, as in many cases this includes passports that people can use earlier.

PommieBast

Jacovs wrote: »

They are open as of today. Their twitter was also updated. Aiming to have all renewals issued in May. All new applications in June. Supporting documents returned 10 working days AFTER they send your new passport. Makes no sense, should return the supporting documents first soon as they are dont with them, as in many cases this includes passports that people can use earlier.

Nice to hear that the state is actually getting something done.

I'm guessing its how they have setup their logistics, as in most cases supporting documents means old passports that need to be cancelled before they are returned.

Jacovs

PommieBast wrote: »

Nice to hear that the state is actually getting something done.

I'm guessing its how they have setup their logistics, as in most cases supporting documents means old passports that need to be cancelled before they are returned.

As far as I am aware for simple renewals there are no supporting documents, no old passport to return and be cancelled anymore.

Far as aviation is concerned, very long road ahead. Work (worked?) in the sector myself and have been laid off since start of april last year. Little to no communication from company, happy to sit on their hands and just keep kicking the bucket down the road each time the PUP is extended. Frustrating to say the last.

Noxegon wrote: »

Based on what's being reported today it's beginning to look like those under the age of 50 are looking at Q3 for their first dose. If it's AstraZeneca, then they're looking at Q4 before they're fully vaccinated. These people will have little choice but to holiday in Ireland.

Noxegon wrote: »

I admire your optimism – but I'd point out anyone receiving AstraZeneca in the first week of July (which is Q3) won't get their second until the end of September.

First of all, the AstraZeneca vaccine is only authorised for over 50's, so under 50's won't be getting it or the J&J, under 50's will be mostly getting the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines as it currently stands.

Secondly there is nothing to say that AstraZeneca has to be 12 weeks, in can be given after just 4 weeks, in fact that is mostly what they trialled.

Given the restriction on using the AstraZeneca/J&J vaccines to only those over 50's, I'd suspect most will end up getting their second dose much sooner.

Noxegon

bk wrote: »

Secondly there is nothing to say that AstraZeneca has to be 12 weeks, in can be given after just 4 weeks, in fact that is mostly what they trialled.

Straight from the HSE:

"You will need 2 doses of the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine.
You should get your 2nd dose at least 12 weeks after your 1st dose.
Some people will need to wait 16 weeks before their 2nd dose."

https://www2.hse.ie/screening-and-vaccinations/covid-19-vaccine/astrazeneca/

Cookiemunster

Noxegon wrote: »

Straight from the HSE:

https://www2.hse.ie/screening-and-vaccinations/covid-19-vaccine/astrazeneca/

That's current NIAC/HSEadvice. It can be changed and lowered to 4 weeks if they so wish. It was initially trialled on a 4 week basis.

0lddog

If the above stuff is really of interest to any of you hpra.ie might be a better starting point than hse.ie.

Perhaps start at the page https://www.hpra.ie/homepage/medicines/covid-19-updates/covid-19-vaccines-product-information ?

vandriver

Cookiemunster wrote: »

The passport office has been added to the list of essential services. It won't be closed any longer.

Ordered a renewal passport on Saturday lunchtime,it arrived this morning.

billy few mates

vandriver wrote: »

Ordered a renewal passport on Saturday lunchtime,it arrived this morning.

They have my passport card renewal for two months now...

vandriver

billy few mates wrote: »

They have my passport card renewal for two months now...

Not that urgent though,as you still have the paper passport?

Phil.x

Pulled in to watch a couple of takeoffs and landings at Dublin airport with the kids, poor poor show, 3 planes in 45mins. Dam you covid.