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Racing Uncertainties

[Deleted User]

I am starting this with the intention of posting selections for Horse Racing.

Nowt is certain in this game. Hence the title.

One to start off with.

Wolverhampton 7.15 Zafaranah

Mrs Barclay's Mare had a return to form last week when 2nd at the course over the extended mile. The horse has won before at this time of year, and is twice a Course and Distance winner off ratings higher than what she's assessed at tonight.

Available to back at 15/2 and bigger, I give it an each way chance here. Drawn 9 of 11 aint ideal, but I had no say in the box allocation.

I wish myself the best of luck with my thread, and hope to provide many winners and big priced placers.

That's all for now.

Gluck

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[Deleted User]

4.50 Navan Inshallah Queen 33/1 ew

An interesting one, and a speculative one as well. Interesting because the filly's had three runs; with the first two being over hurdles, and her comeback run being over a similar trip at Dundalk last month on the flat. Plus, Apparently Casamento's improve with age, but, not least cos I want to be able to shout name at telly, as I figures (wrongly, I spose, or else it wouldn't be so) that such a name would be haram verboten, but what would I know. The trainer has been in form recently too.

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

2.20 Navan Blue Wood 7/1 ew , Lapilli 28/1 ew

Blue Wood is having his 2nd stint with the Feane Stable. Has had 8 runs, and lto he ran pretty well at Dundalk; when staying on over 5. I think that that run was an improvement on his previous 7, and the extra 164yds here should help too.

Lapilli is a speculative pick in an open race, with 5 places on offer.

Deleted User wrote: »

4.50 Navan Inshallah Queen 33/1 ew

An interesting one, and a speculative one as well. Interesting because the filly's had three runs; with the first two being over hurdles, and her comeback run being over a similar trip at Dundalk last month on the flat. Plus, Apparently Casamento's improve with age, but, not least cos I want to be able to shout name at telly, as I figures (wrongly, I spose, or else it wouldn't be so) that such a name would be haram verboten, but what would I know. The trainer has been in form recently too.

Inshallah, it was not his will that these two mules would participate today.

Peace be upon them and their connections.

[Deleted User]

25/04

Running P & L +74.8pts

Invested 13pts. 2.20 Blue Wood ew nr, 4.50 Inshallah Queen ew nr. 9 pts on the go.

Returns:

4.10 Bossipop (done ew) places @ 28/1 at a fifth the odds returning 6.6pts

Invested 9pts - returns 6.6pts

Loss for the day 2.4pts

Running invested total - 1,969 pts

Total P & L +72.4pts

[Deleted User]

26/04

1.35 Ayr Epeius 10/1 ew
2.40 Ayr Tommy G 8/1 ew

Both are course and distance winners - will like the ground, and have had the benefit of recent runs.

2.10 Ayr Cold Stare 10/1 ew
Hard to assess his form - he's a bit inconsistent, and mainly runs on softer. One who could be in on the ratings. Has the benefit of a recent run, and the O'Meara stable been in form lately. Hopeful one this.

Gluck

[Deleted User]

2.50 Southwell Katty D 10/1 ew
Wasn't beaten far over C & D 3 runs back. He was fancied that day, and the application of the cheekpieces could help. The two favourites were first and second in a slow run race over C & D in Feb. For that reason I think they're opposable.

[Deleted User]

3.25 Southwell Tigray 22/1 ew

Could be staying on well at the end. A bit to take on trust with this one, but he's a three time course winner over shorter, and Frederick Larson is on top for the first time taking off seven. The ones at the top of the betting have question marks, I feel - long layoffs/ have either never won-ran over Course or distance, or ran at the course. Either way I think the selection is bigly priced.

[Deleted User]

3.55 Southwell Ugo Gregory 20/1 ew

Wouldn't be winning out of turn. An ew pick against the field here. Has never ran at the course before, and will hope he takes to it. Is drawn low, and is versatile regarding how he can be ridden. Comeback run at Donny last month reads well enough for me here. Career high mark, but it is what is.

[Deleted User]

26/04

Running P & L +72.4pts

Invested 12pts. 1.35 Epeius ew nr. 2.10 Cold Stare ew nr. 8pts in play.

Returns:

3.25 Tigray (done ew) places @ 25/1 at a quarter the odds returning 7.2pts.

Invested 8pts - returns 7.2pts.

Loss for the day 0.8pts

Running invested total - 1,977 pts

Total P & L +71.6pts

[Deleted User]

Already done P & L, so not counting these two, but am going ew on Harvest Day and Outtake in the 8.00. About 6 and 40/1 they're available at - 4plcs a fifth

[Deleted User]

27 April

3.00 Brighton Winnetka 13/2 win.

An interesting one this in an interesting race. Could well try and make all here. Been running mainly on the AW and/or over further on turf. Is only 4, so potentially open to improvement at this 6f trip on the turf; which he hasn't tackled in a while; and not least, hasn't attempted it before on good to firm. Cameron Noble takes off three to help.

[Deleted User]

5.10 Lingfield Foresee 11/1 ew , Almost You 6/1 ew

Foresee looks good for a place at least here at a nice price. If he gives a replication of his recent runs, I don't think he'll be far away.

Almost You is drawn wide in this. She ran wide from the 6 box two runs back over C & D and almost won. That was a 16 runner affair. If she puts in a similar performance tomorrow; then being drawn 13 of 16 looks like a good berth for her to have (2 nonrunners, and 1 of them had the 14 stall, so only 2 runners on her outside). Price isn't great though.

[Deleted User]

7.55 Lingfield Sherpa Trail 33/1 ew

Trained, and appears to also be owned by Simon Dow; having formerly being with Ed Walker. Has only had 6 runs to date, with two wins, with both those coming over 7 at Wolves for his last trainer. His first two runs for Dow were over a mile, and he didn't show much. A speculative one, but he might improve for the step up to 12 furlongs. Is dropping down the weights, and the useful apprentice Tyler Heard takes off 5. I'd be sickened if I let this one go unbacked, only to see him go on to win. Strictly on the formbook there's nothing to recommend this grey horse, but the mitigating factors; the least of which wouldn't be his price, makes him worth a bet here in my humble

Hope he don't come last now :pac:

Gluck

[Deleted User]

7.35 Punchestown Rockonsoph 50/1 ew

Owned, bred, and trained by Richard Morrissey; who hasn't had a runner in years, as best I can tell. I'm guessing she could be a decent filly, at a guess. A lot of amateurs in this race, who are relatively inexperienced; but Declan Queally would be one of the better ones. A hopeful speculative pick in a race where the majority are unraced, and to see a big-priced one cross the winning line in front wouldn't be a massive shock/surprise; with very little to go on in the way of form.

[Deleted User]

2.00 Brighton A late one, so not for stats, but Zulu Zander @ 11/4 could go well from the front here

[Deleted User]

^^^

Rubbish - I really need to rid myself of this obsession with backing Evans' horses - I should, but I won't

[Deleted User]

Seeing as it's the festival, have gone for 2 at Punchestown,,,,

4.50 Dysart Diamond 25/1 ew , The Mouse Doctor 25/1 ew 1/5 1-6 places

Both have won over 2 miles on good ground in the last 6 months/1year.. Might have been 'lesser races' , but they clocked faster than standard winning times in some of those successes; so will do me here as two ew picks against the field..

[Deleted User]

2.50 Nottingham

Not a P & L/Thread related bet; but with both currently at about 3/1-7/2, will do a r/f/c on Divine Magic & Roman Mist...

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

27 April

3.00 Brighton Winnetka 13/2 win.

An interesting one this in an interesting race. Could well try and make all here. Been running mainly on the AW and/or over further on turf. Is only 4, so potentially open to improvement at this 6f trip on the turf; which he hasn't tackled in a while; and not least, hasn't attempted it before on good to firm. Cameron Noble takes off three to help.

Another crap showing - got to the front, but not straightaway - finished last, or close to it

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

^^^

Rubbish - I really need to rid myself of this obsession with backing Evans' horses - I should, but I won't

And he's just had a winner at Brighton :rolleyes: FFS

:mad:

[Deleted User]

28/04

Wolves 1.15 Buzz Lightyere 28/1 ew

Never been further than 12fs, but has a few runs at that trip at the course where he shaped as if this 2m trip might suit.

[Deleted User]

6.10 Chelmsford Jen's Fella 5/1 ew

Can go close on form.. First time tongustrap may help. Was hoping the price would be bigger, but it's okay.

Gluck

[Deleted User]

27/04

Running P & L +71.6pts

Invested 13pts. 7.35 Rockonsoph ew nr. 11pts at play.

Returns:

5.10 Foresee (done ew @ 11/1) places at a fifth with a 5p rule 4 returning 3pts
5.10 Almost You (done ew @ 6/1) places at a fifth with a 5p rule 4 returning 2.1pts

Invested 11pts - returns 5.1pts

Loss for the day 5.9pts

Running invested total - 1,988 pts

Total P & L +65.7pts

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

28/04

Wolves 1.15 Buzz Lightyere 28/1 ew

Never been further than 12fs, but has a few runs at that trip at the course where he shaped as if this 2m trip might suit.

No good

Deleted User wrote: »

6.10 Chelmsford Jen's Fella 5/1 ew

Can go close on form.. First time tongustrap may help. Was hoping the price would be bigger, but it's okay.

Gluck

Non runner - sure have a good strike-rate with them, as of late :rolleyes:

Must be getting a message from "on high" / "the great beyond"... May as well take a picking holiday the way things are going...

[Deleted User]

28/04

Running P & L +65.7pts

Invested 4pts. 6.10 Jen's Fella ew nr. 2pts in play.

Returns - none

Invested 2pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 2pts

Running invested total - 1,990 pts

Total P & L +63.7pts

[Deleted User]

29/04

7.55 Southwell Oud Metha Bridge 15/2 ew , Purple Power 25/1 ew

Never won at the course has OMB, but he does go well here. Has a recent enough win this 7yr old chestnut (won over a mile at Kempton in November). He does tend to break slow, and often comes wide and late when running over a mile here. Drawn 8 of 12 should not inconvenience him. Am going back a while to January of last year, when he was also drawn 8, and came 2nd over C & D. That was in a Class 5 off 70. He is currently rated 66, so he should be well capable of getting involved here in a Class 6. The price is about right - I had 8s in me head before checking, so price taken is good enough. One who could drift or see some support, as we're not privy to inside info, but, on the face of things 15/2 is alright.

Another one of interest is Maykir, though he's poorly enough priced at about 6s. He would have pretty good place prospects I feel; but, as far as winning here goes, I'm not really liking him in that regard, so no bet. That said, Kingscote is on top for the first time, so I can't rule him out. If I'm laptop-side come racetime I may do him win and/or place; if he drifts.

On to Purple Power. The 2nd selection is lightly raced, coming back from an absence, and this filly shaped as if she'd like the mile trip here, when staying on lto over 7fs at the course. That seems decent enough, and the price is enough to cast aside any worries of fitness, or staying of the trip. A hopeful ew pick. Plus, the former Manchester City centre forward has had a few winners lately - including 2 at Brighton on Tuesday, so Micky's in form.

Often hear the pundits say 'the dead eight' - when referencing a race with 3 places ew. This one has more than that, but I'm calling it as 'just the dead twelve'

as any books who offer 4 places a fifth (this being one example) tend to waive that 4th place if less than 12 go to post. I'd still be doing the 2 selections anyway, but am hoping all line up nonetheless. Most books are offering the usual 3 places a quarter, but not all of them.

Not looked at much racing, so I'll give a mention to another one here. Susie Javea, the general 4/1 fav, and 3 times C & D winner looks vulnerable to me here. Am not saying she can't win, and at 4/1 I can't see any angle, but if she were backed into say 9/4 - 5/2, then she would have some appeal laying her for three places.

Just the 2 selections for me here though.

Gluck all

[Deleted User]

Punchestown picks

Don't really like Irish racing, and so many horses in most these races. But with the week that's in it.

4.15 Paloma Blue 22/1, Kildorrery 25/1. Both ew 1/5 5 places

6.00 Baptism Of Fire 28/1 ew 1/5 6 places

5.25 Ronald Pump win 6/1

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

29/04

7.55 Southwell Oud Metha Bridge 15/2 ew , Purple Power 25/1 ew

Never won at the course has OMB, but he does go well here. Has a recent enough win this 7yr old chestnut (won over a mile at Kempton in November). He does tend to break slow, and often comes wide and late when running over a mile here. Drawn 8 of 12 should not inconvenience him. Am going back a while to January of last year, when he was also drawn 8, and came 2nd over C & D. That was in a Class 5 off 70. He is currently rated 66, so he should be well capable of getting involved here in a Class 6. The price is about right - I had 8s in me head before checking, so price taken is good enough. One who could drift or see some support, as we're not privy to inside info, but, on the face of things 15/2 is alright.

Another one of interest is Maykir, though he's poorly enough priced at about 6s. He would have pretty good place prospects I feel; but, as far as winning here goes, I'm not really liking him in that regard, so no bet. That said, Kingscote is on top for the first time, so I can't rule him out. If I'm laptop-side come racetime I may do him win and/or place; if he drifts.

On to Purple Power. The 2nd selection is lightly raced, coming back from an absence, and this filly shaped as if she'd like the mile trip here, when staying on lto over 7fs at the course. That seems decent enough, and the price is enough to cast aside any worries of fitness, or staying of the trip. A hopeful ew pick. Plus, the former Manchester City centre forward has had a few winners lately - including 2 at Brighton on Tuesday, so Micky's in form.

Often hear the pundits say 'the dead eight' - when referencing a race with 3 places ew. This one has more than that, but I'm calling it as 'just the dead twelve' as any books who offer 4 places a fifth (this being one example) tend to waive that 4th place if less than 12 go to post. I'd still be doing the 2 selections anyway, but am hoping all line up nonetheless. Most books are offering the usual 3 places a quarter, but not all of them.

Not looked at much racing, so I'll give a mention to another one here. Susie Javea, the general 4/1 fav, and 3 times C & D winner looks vulnerable to me here. Am not saying she can't win, and at 4/1 I can't see any angle, but if she were backed into say 9/4 - 5/2, then she would have some appeal laying her for three places.

Just the 2 selections for me here though.

Gluck all

Both picks have drifted: OMB out to 10s, and Purple Power 40s.. Not too worried..

I see the fav is now Lightning Attack - the bottom weight for Roger Teal. Into 3/1 Gen from 5s, in his first run for Roger. I'm not seeing any form that could make him win this,...

As far as that Maykir goes - he's at about 7s now, so 8/5 looked good, and I had a 3-place tilt.

*Just an update. Am not claiming these new prices for the P & L, and place bets don't count neither.

[Deleted User]

29/04

Running P & L +63.7pts

Invested 11pts

Returns:

4.15 Kildorrery (done ew) places @ 40/1 at a fifth the odds returning 9pts
7.55 Oud Metha Bridge (done ew @ 15/2) places at a fifth the odds returning 2.5pts

Invested 11pts - returns 11.5pts

Profit for the day 0.5pts

Running invested total - 2,001 pts

Total P & L +64.2pts

[Deleted User]

Tomorrow Friday 30/04

Not looked at much, but two at the Gosforth Park venue are not wivout a chance - I hope :P - at daycent prices....

5.15 Violette Szabo 22/1 ew

Yet to win. Has ran a few times over C & D. Not exactly the world's greatest jockey in Faye on top, but this 4yr old filly will do as a hopeful ew poke here pour moi.

8.25 Quanah 12/1 ew

Drawn low which aint great, but goes well over C & D.

Besta luk all

[Deleted User]

May day Saturday 1 May

Uttoxeter 1.22 Lady Sally 16/1 ew

Last run over approx 2 1/2m seemed to be an improvement on previous efforts. Will only be her ninth run tomorrow over obstacles, and the gear comes out in the form of the first-time cheekpieces. Hoping she'll stay this close on 3m trip. Not so sure about the good-good to firm ground, and the tissue has her at a pony 25/1. I'm still tempted. Trainer's in good recent form too.

Thirsk 2.40 Nugget 10/3 ew

Hoping he'll be the best horse in the race. Lto run at Newbury gives him every chance.

3.50 Dick Datchery 9/1 ew

Not gone unnoticed by the layers. Pity, I was hoping he'd be 14s, or bigger. 2nd last run over C & D gives him every chance. That were Class 5, and it's a Class 4 tomorrow. He was drawn low that day, and being drawn higher in box 16 tomorrow should help too. Will be physically carrying a few pounds less than his latest course outing too. Overall form aint too hot; so I'm classing him as 'a horses for courses' bet..

5.20 Hexham Poucor 22/1 ew , Largy Mouth 9/1 ew

2 against the field in this seller, where I think the favs (no's 1 & 2) are opposable.

6.55 Tokaramore 16/1 ew

Course winner - been dropping down the weights since he got a big rise for his last victory; which was at the course in 2019. Never won over this far before, but he can definitely go close with a clear round. Am hoping he's on a 'going day' tomorrow.

Gluck