yagan wrote: » Rising interest rates? The whole pension problem is cash chasing return, and when that expectation of pensions always grows goes pop it ain't going to be an inflationary event.
The_Conductor wrote: » Forget about HAP payments for a moment- and look at the 30k lumpsum for first time buyers- that could be abolished handily. The HSE is going to see all its Covid induced largess evaporate. Education is going to get hit. DSP will see its budget slashed. Outside of this- all the special projects (think pie-in-the-sky rural railways, cyle-links etc etc)- are next on the chopping block. I don't see much in the way of additional tax rises (for the short to medium term) but I do see a lot of potential slash and burn in expenditure. One potential development will be a third rate of tax of 15% to kick in on all income above 12,940 per annum. Of all the parties- the Greens are going to be furious- they seem to love splurging money around like there is no tomorrow- well, guess what, tomorrow is beckoning.In the public sector- there are rumours of an early retirement scheme in the civil service open to those aged 51+ A new embargo on recruitment esp. in the HSE A ban on the use of agency staff in all public sectors A ban on all overtime payments (staff to be granted time-in-lieu where-ever possible) etc etc I reckon the focus will be firmly on expenditure reduction, as opposed to tax increases- however, there will also be a concerted effort to bring more into the tax regime- through a third tax rate- set immediately above the COAP rate. It ain't gonna to be pretty.
Hubertj wrote: » I think this is a lovely house. I think it is really well presented.https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/8-palmerston-road-rathmines-dublin-6-d06-w562/4497216
awec wrote: » Lovely house. If I was to nitpick I think the kitchen is quite small for a house of that size. I would say the kitchen is not much bigger, if any bigger, than a kitchen you'd see in a standard semi-d.
schmittel wrote: » Initially thought that was a bit harsh, but looked at the pictures again and maybe you're right. I wonder was the house renovated with the for sale photos in mind, hence the tighter kitchen space. Just seems amazing that a family could live there and present the house for sale that well!
Claw Hammer wrote: » The kitchen seems to be the full extent of the basement with an informal lounge area in one half of it.
PropQueries wrote: » I suppose if you're a pension fund with e.g. €10 Billion in total assets and €1 Billion invested in residential real estate. Would you rather interest rates rise to e.g. 5% and the value of your residential investment properties falls in value of 50%? While pension funds have started investing in residential property,it's not such a big percentage of their assets at the moment that it would be such a large problem if the residential property market did tank and they would mu ch rather take a short-term hit of e.g. a 50% hit on their residential property investments if it did mean interest rates rising to 5% in most cases IMO Maybe central banks will just look at the pros and cons and increase interest rates, inflation or no inflation?
The IMF estimates that pension plans have doubled their allocations to illiquid assets over the past 10 years, and for about a fifth of funds these capital commitments amount to more than half their liquid assets.
yagan wrote: » Again from my earlier FT link: And it's not the residential market alone. It's the property that's bypassing the market and being sold straight from developer to pension fund. That's why I thought the Marlet group not having buyers lined up where previously they had was an interesting development. Perhaps pension groups that had snapped up Marlet property previous aren't impressed with their rental yield.
timmyntc wrote: » The shorting of peripherals is a sign that almost all EU bonds are artificially undervalued, but also that its likely the yields will begin to rise and that the ECB will begin to wind down its stimulus somewhat. Whether or not they short Irish govt bonds, they will rise. ALL EU govt bonds are artificially low right now. Going forward it will mean we have less access to cheap finance and cannot keep borrowing as easy.
PropQueries wrote: » I suppose if you're a pension fund with e.g. €10 Billion in total assets and €1 Billion invested in residential real estate. Would you rather interest rates rise to e.g. 5% and the value of your residential investment properties falls in value of 50%? While pension funds have started investing in residential property, it's not such a big percentage of their assets at the moment that it would be such a large problem if the residential property market did tank and they would much rather take a short-term hit of e.g. a 50% hit on their residential property investments if it did mean interest rates rising to 5% in most cases IMO Maybe central banks will just look at the pros and cons and increase interest rates, inflation or no inflation?
PropQueries wrote: » I think Killian Woods referred to a similar thing in the SBP yesterday where the returns on these investments may be not what they appear on paper. I'll have to dig out the paper to see exactly what he was saying though.
Cyrus wrote: » We have two under 6 and our place is like that all the time , it’s possible , just a lot of constant tidying helps that we have girls too , less physically destructive!
awec wrote: » What's the secret? I also have 2 girls and our house looks like a bomb has gone off most of the time.
Balluba wrote: » I think I saw that house in the property price register when it sold in June 2017 for 2.2 million
awec wrote: » The numbers are also likely to be a bit lower as the buying habits of the FTB have changed dramatically in the past decade. People are now buying houses they intend to live in for a long time even for their first property. The whole "starter home" thing is not so prevalent. If you are tracking the trend in houses for sale this will surely mean it's down relative to what it was in the 00s, as a lot fewer of the FTBs of the 10s will be selling up at this stage.
schmittel wrote: » Yep, agreed, it's definitely one of the reasons turnover has collapsed, and I think the potential medium term impact of this is not discussed/understood widely enough. But probably a bit OT for this thread!
awec wrote: » From the other thread, more a topic for this one I think. I think, on the bolded point, it means that over time the FTB segment becomes more and more dependent on brand new housing stock, as the "nearly new" stock pretty much dries up.
schmittel wrote: » Yes agreed, but there is too much focus on that point -i.e the only solution anybody is talking about is we must build as many houses for FTBs as possible as soon as possible, without thinking through how that will play out in the wider market. As you say over time FTBs become more and more dependent on new build stock that they can stay in long term, with FTBers representing an ever increasing % of turnover. So simultaneously the idea both of trading up and trading down becomes less commonplace, and majority of stock on market is new builds/ex rentals/probate plus a few trader uppers/downsizers. This is turn sustains prices as govt introduces more HTB and shared equity measures etc. As long as demographics combined with govt supports ensure that the demand for FTBers is greater than the supply of new builds the whole merry go around probably continues as is. But at some stage inevitably the combination of demographics/prices/support are going to hit a point that the demand is simply no longer there. When that happens the supply of unsold new builds, probate and traders is going to immediately be greater than the demand in the market. This will be a very significant tipping point IMO as demographics start to work the other way - i.e the volume of older people vacating family homes either through death or downsizing is greater than the number wishing to buy them. If this plays out like this it will be carnage. And it's why I think govt need a radical change in strategy to try to boost turnover in the market rather than just keep building more of the same.
Hubertj wrote: » Interesting thoughts. Am I right in thinking Ireland has a relatively young population? Therefore, that tipping point could be some time away when combined with all the other problems with the property market?
PropQueries wrote: » After Cyprus and Luxembourg, we have the highest percentage of our population that was born in another EU country. This could be a big factor in our relatively young population IMO They most likely won’t hang around long if the economy does go pear shaped to keep housing demand up as they would have real options (more options than Irish born people anyway) to move home in such a scenario IMO
Browney7 wrote: » Were those stats be pre or post brexit? The north would skew our stats on that front you can be sure
PropQueries wrote: » According to the SBP today: “A “significant number” of social housing projects will be delayed until next year due to the construction shutdown, Darragh O’Brien, the Minister for Housing, has said.” Anyone got access to the online edition to see the “reasons” given as I generally only buy the actual paper on the Sunday. I’ve a sneaking suspicion this has as much to do with cuts to the housing department’s budget than anything else, as I don’t see how his department will get a pass on the much flagged cuts that are coming IMO Link to article here: https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/construction-shutdown-delays-significant-number-of-social-housing-projects-9623d449
