awec wrote: » The numbers are also likely to be a bit lower as the buying habits of the FTB have changed dramatically in the past decade. People are now buying houses they intend to live in for a long time even for their first property. The whole "starter home" thing is not so prevalent. If you are tracking the trend in houses for sale this will surely mean it's down relative to what it was in the 00s, as a lot fewer of the FTBs of the 10s will be selling up at this stage.
schmittel wrote: » Yep, agreed, it's definitely one of the reasons turnover has collapsed, and I think the potential medium term impact of this is not discussed/understood widely enough. But probably a bit OT for this thread!
Balluba wrote: » I think I saw that house in the property price register when it sold in June 2017 for 2.2 million
Hubertj wrote: » I think this is a lovely house. I think it is really well presented.https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/8-palmerston-road-rathmines-dublin-6-d06-w562/4497216
awec wrote: » What's the secret? I also have 2 girls and our house looks like a bomb has gone off most of the time.
Cyrus wrote: » We have two under 6 and our place is like that all the time , it’s possible , just a lot of constant tidying helps that we have girls too , less physically destructive!
awec wrote: » Lovely house. If I was to nitpick I think the kitchen is quite small for a house of that size. I would say the kitchen is not much bigger, if any bigger, than a kitchen you'd see in a standard semi-d.
schmittel wrote: » Initially thought that was a bit harsh, but looked at the pictures again and maybe you're right. I wonder was the house renovated with the for sale photos in mind, hence the tighter kitchen space. Just seems amazing that a family could live there and present the house for sale that well!
PropQueries wrote: » I think Killian Woods referred to a similar thing in the SBP yesterday where the returns on these investments may be not what they appear on paper. I'll have to dig out the paper to see exactly what he was saying though.
PropQueries wrote: » I suppose if you're a pension fund with e.g. €10 Billion in total assets and €1 Billion invested in residential real estate. Would you rather interest rates rise to e.g. 5% and the value of your residential investment properties falls in value of 50%? While pension funds have started investing in residential property, it's not such a big percentage of their assets at the moment that it would be such a large problem if the residential property market did tank and they would much rather take a short-term hit of e.g. a 50% hit on their residential property investments if it did mean interest rates rising to 5% in most cases IMO Maybe central banks will just look at the pros and cons and increase interest rates, inflation or no inflation?
timmyntc wrote: » The shorting of peripherals is a sign that almost all EU bonds are artificially undervalued, but also that its likely the yields will begin to rise and that the ECB will begin to wind down its stimulus somewhat. Whether or not they short Irish govt bonds, they will rise. ALL EU govt bonds are artificially low right now. Going forward it will mean we have less access to cheap finance and cannot keep borrowing as easy.
yagan wrote: » Again from my earlier FT link: And it's not the residential market alone. It's the property that's bypassing the market and being sold straight from developer to pension fund. That's why I thought the Marlet group not having buyers lined up where previously they had was an interesting development. Perhaps pension groups that had snapped up Marlet property previous aren't impressed with their rental yield.
PropQueries wrote: » I suppose if you're a pension fund with e.g. €10 Billion in total assets and €1 Billion invested in residential real estate. Would you rather interest rates rise to e.g. 5% and the value of your residential investment properties falls in value of 50%? While pension funds have started investing in residential property,it's not such a big percentage of their assets at the moment that it would be such a large problem if the residential property market did tank and they would mu ch rather take a short-term hit of e.g. a 50% hit on their residential property investments if it did mean interest rates rising to 5% in most cases IMO Maybe central banks will just look at the pros and cons and increase interest rates, inflation or no inflation?
The IMF estimates that pension plans have doubled their allocations to illiquid assets over the past 10 years, and for about a fifth of funds these capital commitments amount to more than half their liquid assets.
Claw Hammer wrote: » The kitchen seems to be the full extent of the basement with an informal lounge area in one half of it.
The_Conductor wrote: » Forget about HAP payments for a moment- and look at the 30k lumpsum for first time buyers- that could be abolished handily. The HSE is going to see all its Covid induced largess evaporate. Education is going to get hit. DSP will see its budget slashed. Outside of this- all the special projects (think pie-in-the-sky rural railways, cyle-links etc etc)- are next on the chopping block. I don't see much in the way of additional tax rises (for the short to medium term) but I do see a lot of potential slash and burn in expenditure. One potential development will be a third rate of tax of 15% to kick in on all income above 12,940 per annum. Of all the parties- the Greens are going to be furious- they seem to love splurging money around like there is no tomorrow- well, guess what, tomorrow is beckoning.In the public sector- there are rumours of an early retirement scheme in the civil service open to those aged 51+ A new embargo on recruitment esp. in the HSE A ban on the use of agency staff in all public sectors A ban on all overtime payments (staff to be granted time-in-lieu where-ever possible) etc etc I reckon the focus will be firmly on expenditure reduction, as opposed to tax increases- however, there will also be a concerted effort to bring more into the tax regime- through a third tax rate- set immediately above the COAP rate. It ain't gonna to be pretty.
yagan wrote: » Rising interest rates? The whole pension problem is cash chasing return, and when that expectation of pensions always grows goes pop it ain't going to be an inflationary event.
PropQueries wrote: » I suppose what I meant is that rising interest rates will help many of them more than any kind of explicit bailout. But, excluding private pension funds, our public sector pension liabilities must also be among the most grossly under-funded (non-funded?) in the world. It does look like many of the countries in the EU would now rather rising interest rates and let the few other countries with any debt problems to deal with the consequences of such rising rates themselves in whatever way they see fit IMO
PropQueries wrote: » It does look like many of the countries in the EU would now rather rising interest rates and let the few other countries with any debt problems to deal with the consequences of such rising rates themselves in whatever way they see fit IMO
yagan wrote: » Did you read the FT article I linked earlier? Can you imagine the uproar on Joe Duffy when silver service pensions suffer losses? If the property bubble was a transfer of wealth from young to old then the pension bust will be the water hitting the other side of the tub. However housing policy should never have allowed it to be that a family struggles to save for a deposit while funding someone else's private pension via rent. Don't burn the bondholders/private pensions etc.....
Hubertj wrote: » Why doesn’t the article refer or Ireland though? I’m not disagreeing with you but why not reference Ireland?
PropQueries wrote: » Will they get a bail-out or would many even need it though? I read the last day that e.g. the Danish and Dutch pension funds are among the best funded in the world. Much like our debt levels and despite the narrative, we're most definitely not all in the same boat in the EU either pension fund liabilities wise or government debt levels wise IMO The only "bail-out" the pension funds in most of the rest of the EU really require is to get interest rates back up to the 2000's levels (at least). And, given what the head of the Bundesbank said a couple of weeks ago, they may get what they're wishing for sooner rather than later. "There can be no lack of determination, even if rising interest rates increase countries borrowing costs. This is important for the credibility of monetary policy." Link to FT article on what the head of the Bundesbank said a few weeks ago: https://www.ft.com/content/c587dd18-...2-6b7ab94ba2dd
Jan-Pieter Jansen, a 77-year-old retiree from the Netherlands, had high hopes for a worry-free retirement after having saved diligently into a pension during his working life. But Mr Jansen, a former manager in the metal industry, has been forced to reappraise his plans after receiving notice from his retirement scheme, one of the Netherland’s biggest industry-sector funds, of plans to cut his pension by up to 10 per cent. Understandably, the news has hit like a sledgehammer.
yagan wrote: » M&G Investments are the Marlet group financial backers so I do wonder what their angle is here.https://www.irishtimes.com/business/marlet-seeks-over-1bn-for-prime-dublin-residential-rental-portfolio-1.4505425 Previously Marlet never had to pitch as they were formed specifically to supply the demand for rental yield return for pension funds that had been struggling with low dividends in the bull market and low bond interest. This is an excellent piece about pension funding problem and its influence on the property market.https://www.ft.com/content/c95deea4-03e2-11ea-9afa-d9e2401fa7ca As covered in the piece the problem becomes compounded if there a pension fund property bubble bust as traditionally it's pension funds that pick up the slack when markets are in a bear market. Marlet is an M&G puppy and all signs look like an major offloading out of a crowded trade in motion.
yagan wrote: » I reckon a lot of it those managing the pension funds know they're heading for a bust, but you don't get commission for hoarding your clients money. The number one lesson they learned from the banking bust is that they'll get a bail out, so make hay when you can and then go away when the house of cards collapses.
RichardAnd wrote: » Do you have a source for this? That's a genuine question; I'm not saying that you're incorrect or anything. What could be coming is naturally of interest.
