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United Ireland Poll - please vote

bonzothedog

Simple question - if there was a poll for a United Ireland would you vote yes or no - or yes but it would have to happen within 10 years.

Assumptions - there is economic sense to it and that Ireland can afford it.

The majority of the north want it and opinion polls are showing this. The background work has been done and the unionists though far from happy have reluctantly agreed with accepting the vote's result.

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Hamsterchops

RTE news : NI would vote to remain in UK if poll held - survey

http://www.rte.ie/news/ulster/2021/0420/1211107-spotlight-ulster-poll/

VinLieger

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That partitionism doesn't wash. We abandoned people before, we cannot, and I don't think we will.

Which "we" are you talking about? I didn't abandon anyone and neither did my parents or in fact even my dead grandparents at this stage.

Ive no guilt or need to repair a situation i had zero involvement in and that would likely make my life and my children's life far more difficult if I were to vote yes in a border poll.

[Deleted User]

Hamsterchops wrote: »

RTE news : NI would vote to remain in UK if poll held - survey

http://www.rte.ie/news/ulster/2021/0420/1211107-spotlight-ulster-poll/

Majority think there'll be a UI in 25 years. Probably agree there alright.

FrancieBrady

VinLieger wrote: »

Which "we" are you talking about? I didn't abandon anyone and neither did my parents or in fact even my dead grandparents at this stage.

Ive no guilt or need to repair a situation i had zero involvement in and that would likely make my life and my children's life far more difficult if I were to vote yes in a border poll.

You are one of 21%, I think it was.

downcow

lurleen lumpkin wrote: »

The grandas are holding up the whole show.

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1384617955200278529?s=19

Young people are more radical and become more conservative and supportive of status quo as they get older. We see this time and again in ni. Eg more young people voted against gfa as voted for. I am sure if same people were polled today they have moderated.

downcow

Increased majority for staying in UK.

downcow

Everyone also has to be careful with these figures as poll was in the midst of the recent street violence.

Hamsterchops

6 wrote: »

Majority think there'll be a UI in 25 years. Probably agree there alright.

There seems to be trend every twenty years or so when polls show there'll be a United Ireland in about twenty years, and there'll probably be another poll in twenty years time suggesting the same

Maybe it will happen?

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

Increased majority for staying in UK.

The scary thing for the proponents of the status quo (should be the scary thing) is that it cannot muster over 50% of the vote.
Add to that there is only a 6% gap to the option that has no plan presented yet.

VinLieger

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You are one of 21%, I think it was.

No real answer then?

VinLieger

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The scary thing for the proponents of the status quo (should be the scary thing) is that it cannot muster over 50% of the vote.
Add to that there is only a 6% gap to the option that has no plan presented yet.

And the scary thing for you is that when the difficult questions are asked like taxes, NHS etc the numbers in favour of a UI drop massively on both sides of the border.

Its no surprise you like these abstract polls that make things that are in reality impossibly complex out to be very simple.

FrancieBrady

VinLieger wrote: »

No real answer then?

Answer to what?

You are one of the 25%. Good for you.

lurleen lumpkin

downcow wrote: »

Young people are more radical and become more conservative and supportive of status quo as they get older. We see this time and again in ni. Eg more young people voted against gfa as voted for. I am sure if same people were polled today they have moderated.

What's your source for the age groups for the GFA?

I'm not sure how much weight the ageing=more conservative argument holds in this situation. I'm sure people will still become more fiscally conservative, but I don't think the beliefs and attitudes of young people who are put off by regressive politics and culture will change too much.

[Deleted User]

Interesting to see the drop in support from previous polls (70% to 51%) in the Republic. Richmond was right, far from certain to pass in either country.

Next big test will be when the financial cost of unification becomes part of the discussion.

lurleen lumpkin

jh79 wrote: »

Interesting to see the drop in support from previous polls (70% to 51%) in the Republic.

downcow wrote: »

Everyone also has to be careful with these figures as poll was in the midst of the recent street violence.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Interesting to see the drop in support from previous polls (70% to 51%) in the Republic. Richmond was right, far from certain to pass in either country.

Next big test will be when the financial cost of unification becomes part of the discussion.

The status quo is in trouble here, that is all you can really say, less than 50% and a strong realism that constitutional change will happen within the next 25 years.

Without a plan, a UI is performing very well, especially in NI.

Bring on the plan and let's see the figures.

Hamsterchops

Good to put everything into perspective in the wake of Mary Lou standing behind her "England out of Ireland" banner in New York a couple of years ago. And what about all the adverts Sinn Fein recently took out in the States demanding a United Ireland now!

The reality seem somewhat different.
Maybe in 25 years?

FrancieBrady

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Good to put everything into perspective in the wake of Mary Lou standing behind her "England out of Ireland" banner in New York a couple of years ago. And what about all the adverts Sinn Fein recently took out in the States demanding a United Ireland now!

The reality seem somewhat different.
Maybe in 25 years?

Firstly...the ads DID NOT call for a UI Now...they called for a poll as per the GFA.

I think that is the next phase tbh. There has to be planning for this by the Irish government.
All those decrying Brexit style decisions are gonna have their bluff called.

There are consistent polling figures now showing what way the trend is going, it is dangerous and wrong not to produce the data and plan and have the discussion that people need to make informed decisions.

43% in the north want a UI even though there is no plan. That in itself is amazing IMO.

[Deleted User]

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Without a plan, a UI is performing very well, especially in NI.

Bring on the plan and let's see the figures.

Wouldn't say it's performing well in the Republic with a significant downward trend before the major issue of the cost has been discussed.

Must check if that University group have a date yet for the paper on the financial costs.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Wouldn't say it's performing well in the Republic with a significant downward trend before the major issue of the cost has been discussed.

Must check if that University group have a date yet for the paper on the financial costs.

It's 'performing' over 20 points ahead of a No vote jh79...without a plan presented. That's a big hill to climb given any plan from an Irish government will be in favour of unification.

[Deleted User]

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It's 'performing' over 20 points ahead of a No vote jh79...without a plan presented. That's a big hill to climb given any plan from an Irish government will be in favour of unification.

Still on a downward trend with a 20% loss as the prospect became more realistic.

As I said it'll be interesting to see the numbers once the scale of the cost is out in public. People are already getting cold feet.

BonnieSituation

jh79 wrote: »

Still on a downward trend with a 20% loss as the prospect became more realistic.

As I said it'll be interesting to see the numbers once the scale of the cost is out in public. People are already getting cold feet.

You've nothing to be worried about then surely?

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Still on a downward trend with a 20% loss as the prospect became more realistic.

As I said it'll be interesting to see the numbers once the scale of the cost is out in public. People are already getting cold feet.

One poll doesn't a 'trend' make jh79

Here is the trend.

[Deleted User]

BonnieSituation wrote: »

You've nothing to be worried about then surely?

Probably not, I don't think it will happen without financial help and if that help is found then I won't be bothered if it does happen.

[Deleted User]

FrancieBrady wrote: »

One poll doesn't a 'trend' make jh79

Here is the trend.

Isn't that graphic for NI only?

It could be very close for a long time in NI without ever being likely to pass.

In the Republic we have some evidence that the financial cost will have a big impact on voting patterns. It has already dropped to 51% before talks on levels of tax increase etc have started.

The financial aspect will impact votes in NI too. Is the cost going to be split evenly, will NI have to tighten its belt or will the Republic bare the brunt of it.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Isn't that graphic for NI only?

It could be very close for a long time in NI without ever being likely to pass.

In the Republic we have some evidence that the financial cost will have a big impact on voting patterns. It has already dropped to 51% before talks on levels of tax increase etc have started.

The financial aspect will impact votes in NI too. Is the cost going to be split evenly, will NI have to tighten its belt or will the Republic bare the brunt of it.

Big claims on the basis of one poll is the problem jh79. The trend is the important thing.
And the trend is that a UI is more likely than not. Hence so many thinking it will happen inside 25 years.

It is pure arrogance to assume that people are ignoring/are not aware of possible costs.

BonnieSituation

jh79 wrote: »

Probably not, I don't think it will happen without financial help and if that help is found then I won't be bothered if it does happen.

Aren't you a selfish delight.

[Deleted User]

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Big claims on the basis of one poll is the problem jh79. The trend is the important thing.
And the trend is that a UI is more likely than not. Hence so many thinking it will happen inside 25 years.

It is pure arrogance to assume that people are ignoring/are not aware of possible costs.

I was talking about the Republic and currently the trend is downwards. When we start talking about 20/30 bn in cuts and tax increases the numbers will decrease further.

In the case of NI haven't the numbers in favour of a UI decreased since the last poll?

Will need a few more polls to see if it is stagnating.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

I was talking about the Republic and currently the trend is downwards. When we start talking about 20/30 bn in cuts and tax increases the numbers will decrease further.

In the case of NI haven't the numbers in favour of a UI decreased since the last poll?

Will need a few more polls to see if it is stagnating.

One poll doesn't make a 'trend' jh79.

[Deleted User]

FrancieBrady wrote: »

One poll doesn't make a 'trend' jh79.

To be fair i just assumed previous polls were higher but looking at wiki our support for a UI has been flaky for the last decade, very up and down.

Big drop since the last poll anyways and at 51% prior to a discussion on tax increases, welfare cuts etc not a good starting point.