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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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Villa05

Cal4567 wrote:

Yet another new project in Dublin lost to FTBs. Marks the arrival of pension funds part financing new social housing. Good news for the new tenants though.

It would seem odd that private pension funds see the return with multiple layers of profit taking and the government with an unfunded pensions crisis looming plus access to 0% capital do not

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

I've posted on this before, but one of the things that drives me mad is tht it is so blindingly obvious how to fix the problem, and in a politically palatable way.

1) Announce a wholesale change in thinking to tackle mortgage arrears - banks will be encouraged to repossess, special repossessions court set up to accelerate process.
2) Announce that banks and courts will work through a list starting with the longest term arrears - eg in you are in arrears for over 10 years you can expect action imminently. If your arrears are closer to the bottom of that list - i.e less than 90 days, then it will take a bit of time to get to you.
3) Announce that the process is simple - contract law will be strictly enforced. Did you sign a contract that allows the bank to repossess the home if you don't make the payments? If so, and you are in arrears, the house will be repossessed with no exceptions.

This will have the immediate effect that everybody who is in arrears and wants to keep the property will want to get as far away from the top of that list as possible. The only way to do that is start paying off the arrears as much as they can afford, and will drastically reduce the overall problem.

Repossess the ones at the top of the list that are never going to be sorted and keep working though them. That will kick start the musical chairs and bring a much needed turnover back into the market.

It's politically palatable because no member of the public is going to complain that those who are by definition the worst in the country at paying their mortgages deserve to keep the properties.

I think some people might be surprised at the value and quality of the properties that this would flush out. The maths suggests the problem is dominated by the likes of the Mount Merrion house rather than your typical social housing.

Totally agree having said that any government doing this will lose political ground as its the optics of throwing people out of their family home is something that the lefties have blown up out of all proportion in this country. Sinn Fein will be standing on the sidelines waiting and calling shame shame on the government for throwing family out. Ergo Turkeys dont vote for xmas and no government will do this.

RichardAnd

Cal4567 wrote: »

https://constructionnews.ie/cluid-purchase-of-dublin-apartment-scheme-is-first-acquisition-under-e54m-legal-general-agreement/

Yet another new project in Dublin lost to FTBs. Marks the arrival of pension funds part financing new social housing. Good news for the new tenants though.

Given the state's recently announced plan to house all refugees in their own accommodation, I would expect an already high demand for social housing to only increase in the coming years. Call me conspiratorial, but I would opine that the intention behind this is not to provide social housing per-say, but rather to present an investment opportunity by creating the demand for the said social housing.

SmokyMo

Cyrus wrote: »

Glad you are thinking of me, have you found any evidence of a correlation to support your thesis ?

There is no correlation between tax regimes and talent level of workforce.

SmokyMo

fliball123 wrote: »

Totally agree having said that any government doing this will lose political ground as its the optics of throwing people out of their family home is something that the lefties have blown up out of all proportion in this country. Sinn Fein will be standing on the sidelines waiting and calling shame shame on the government for throwing family out. Ergo Turkeys dont vote for xmas and no government will do this.

What will that solve? Housing? How many units will that free up? Just because mortgage in arrears doesn't meant there are no repayments.
I dont know why people are obsessed with repossessions? You attempting to solve one issue by amplifying the next.

[Deleted User]

fliball123 wrote: »

Totally agree having said that any government doing this will lose political ground as its the optics of throwing people out of their family home is something that the lefties have blown up out of all proportion in this country. Sinn Fein will be standing on the sidelines waiting and calling shame shame on the government for throwing family out. Ergo Turkeys dont vote for xmas and no government will do this.

Yes, unfortunately until we can collectively act like grown ups, showing some personal responsibility and wearing big boy pants, we will never get out of this cycle

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

Totally agree having said that any government doing this will lose political ground as its the optics of throwing people out of their family home is something that the lefties have blown up out of all proportion in this country. Sinn Fein will be standing on the sidelines waiting and calling shame shame on the government for throwing family out. Ergo Turkeys dont vote for xmas and no government will do this.

That's the nub of the problem. Turkeys don't vote for Christmas.

We live in a country where it is politically unpalatable to say these people have not paid their mortgage for ten years so we should repossess the house.

That is the voters fault not the governments.

It is politically unpalatable because people who already own houses are happy to pull up the ladder behind them and everyone else can get f*cked for all they care.

It's shameful and until we change that attitude we will never fix our housing market problems.

fliball123

SmokyMo wrote: »

What will that solve? Housing? How many units will that free up? Just because mortgage in arrears doesn't meant there are no repayments.
I dont know why people are obsessed with repossessions? You attempting to solve one issue by amplifying the next.

There is a moral hazard issue do you not see that when Billy sees Joe not paying his mortgage and getting away with it, how long will it take Billy to realise he is a sucker working and paying his mortgage when he could sit on his a$$ and live there free. This for me is the main issue with the whole property problem at the moment.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

That's the nub of the problem. Turkeys don't vote for Christmas.

We live in a country where it is politically unpalatable to say these people have not paid their mortgage for ten years so we should repossess the house.

That is the voters fault not the governments.

It is politically unpalatable because people who already own houses are happy to pull up the ladder behind them and everyone else can get f*cked for all they care.

It's shameful and until we change that attitude we will never fix our housing market problems.

WE must be getting close to Armageddon Schmittel we actual agree on something

RichardAnd

schmittel wrote: »

That's the nub of the problem. Turkeys don't vote for Christmas.

We live in a country where it is politically unpalatable to say these people have not paid their mortgage for ten years so we should repossess the house.

That is the voters fault not the governments.

It is politically unpalatable because people who already own houses are happy to pull up the ladder behind them and everyone else can get f*cked for all they care.

It's shameful and until we change that attitude we will never fix our housing market problems.

To me, this is simply more evidence that the state should not have the power to interfere in what should be private business. If I sign a mortgage contract and do not fulfill my part of the deal by paying back the loan, then the consequences of that failure should be forthcoming.

If the state were unable to step in at this point because it did not have the power, then it would not be possible to construct political agendas based on this interference.

Villa05

Cyrus wrote: »

so why is the poster amazed there wasnt a criminal investigation?

the Financial regulator is not a criminal law expert

Fraudulent activity by 16 members of the Senior management team
Obstruction of justice at every opportunity

Participating knowingly of activity that destroys shareholder value

Deceiving customers

Using positions of power to bypass internal controls that block such activity
Some of the participants are repeat offenders
Actions committed at a time when the country was getting off its knees from the damage done by the financial sector

What other skeletons are inside this organization with same been implicated in similar actions as far back as 1993. Forensic financial auditors from outside the country should be sent in given the nature of the fraud and who was perpetrating it

We live in a country that send grandmothers to prison for not paying tv licence to help deliver independent journalism through one company, yet that company gave little coverage to this story

hometruths

235m2 in prime Burnaby Greystones for 1.485m.

It's a relatively recent build (2004) "created in the Period style" which looks to be well done, but IMO it lacks the grace of the originals. Having said that there is no doubt it is a plum site in a prime area. Will sell well I suspect.

DataDude

schmittel wrote: »

235m2 in prime Burnaby Greystones for 1.485m.

It's a relatively recent build (2004) "created in the Period style" which looks to be well done, but IMO it lacks the grace of the originals. Having said that there is no doubt it is a plum site in a prime area. Will sell well I suspect.

Something about the front of it that I just don't like...but serious location and site.
Four houses up for sale in (or around) the Burnaby now which is rare!

This sale must have fallen through for a second time at €1.375m (was told 2 months ago that it was closing as soon as lockdown ended) as they've given it a paint job and renamed it for the advert...Of course the location is nowhere near as attractive as St. Vincent's Road, but nearly twice the size and more modern!

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/1-kinlen-road-the-burnaby-greystones-wicklow/4494836

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

235m2 in prime Burnaby Greystones for 1.485m.

It's a relatively recent build (2004) "created in the Period style" which looks to be well done, but IMO it lacks the grace of the originals. Having said that there is no doubt it is a plum site in a prime area. Will sell well I suspect.

pity it isnt a bit bigger for that kind of money (the house i mean, the site is great) but the location is very good.

Cyrus

Villa05 wrote: »

the Financial regulator is not a criminal law expert

Fraudulent activity by 16 members of the Senior management team
Obstruction of justice at every opportunity

Participating knowingly of activity that destroys shareholder value

Deceiving customers

Using positions of power to bypass internal controls that block such activity
Some of the participants are repeat offenders
Actions committed at a time when the country was getting off its knees from the damage done by the financial sector

What other skeletons are inside this organization with same been implicated in similar actions as far back as 1993. Forensic financial auditors from outside the country should be sent in given the nature of the fraud and who was perpetrating it

We live in a country that send grandmothers to prison for not paying tv licence to help deliver independent journalism through one company, yet that company gave little coverage to this story

ill ask you again, what specific crime was committed, what would you expect them to be charged with.

Im not saying it doesnt stink but this nonsense in comparing it to grandmothers going to jail for not paying a tv licence is just silly.

Cyrus

DataDude wrote: »

Something about the front of it that I just don't like...but serious location and site.
Four houses up for sale in (or around) the Burnaby now which is rare!

This sale must have fallen through for a second time at €1.375m (was told 2 months ago that it was closing as soon as lockdown ended) as they've given it a paint job and renamed it for the advert...Of course the location is nowhere near as attractive as St. Vincent's Road, but nearly twice the size and more modern!

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/1-kinlen-road-the-burnaby-greystones-wicklow/4494836

have to say, even though i like the aesthetic outside and the size is what you would want for that money, the interior (i mean the things that would be expensive to change) does nothing for me, stairs arent to my taste, nor is the sky light or that massive light installation.

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

Something about the front of it that I just don't like...but serious location and site.
Four houses up for sale in (or around) the Burnaby now which is rare!

Agree about the front.

Love the location, but... if I bought that house for 1.5m (and I know we're not supposed to care what our neighbours paid for their house) I think I would constant look longingly out the window/over the fence at Burnaby Lodge next door and wince at the thought they bought it for 1.075m in 2014!

Burnaby Lodge is nicest house in Greystones in my opinion.

awec

schmittel wrote: »

Agree about the front.

Love the location, but... if I bought that house for 1.5m (and I know we're not supposed to care what our neighbours paid for their house) I think I would constant look longingly out the window/over the fence at Burnaby Lodge next door and wince at the thought they bought it for 1.075m in 2014!

Burnaby Lodge is nicest house in Greystones in my opinion.

They also have hidden their house on Google Maps. :pac:

DataDude

awec wrote: »

They also have hidden their house on Google Maps. :pac:

Didn’t know you could do that!
Here’s the old brochure if you’re interested!

https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/view/18164793/burnaby-lodge-the-burnaby-myhomeie

DataDude

Cyrus wrote: »

pity it isnt a bit bigger for that kind of money (the house i mean, the site is great) but the location is very good.

At what point would you become indifferent to additional m2 on a house (ignoring resale value)?

I think for me, in a two storey house, 275m2 is plenty. I think I’d actually be averse to >350m2 due to costs of heating and hassle keeping clean etc.

awec

DataDude wrote: »

Didn’t know you could do that!
Here’s the old brochure if you’re interested!

https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/view/18164793/burnaby-lodge-the-burnaby-myhomeie

Not my cup of tea.

Villa05

Cyrus wrote:

ill ask you again, what specific crime was committed, what would you expect them to be charged with.

Fraud and insider trading are criminally prosecutable and I believe it is the role of the Gardai and the courts to determine if criminality was involved not the financial regulator.

PropQueries

Herbert Hill is Dundrum is back in the news. One would wonder how many others of these are the local councils leaving vacant throughout Co. Dublin.

These are not "derelict" ex-council houses, fund owned properties etc. etc. There are prime located, A-rated, luxury apartments and the local council is paying full "market" rent on them.

According to the Sunday Business Post: "Seven luxury apartments, costing more than €2,000 a month, that are being leased for social housing in Dundrum have been left empty for 17 months."

Link to article in Sunday Business Post here: https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/seven-dundrum-apartments-leased-for-social-housing-have-been-empty-for-17-months-5cb77c5d

Cyrus

Villa05 wrote: »

Fraud and insider trading are criminally prosecutable and I believe it is the role of the Gardai and the courts to determine if criminality was involved not the financial regulator.

if thats the case im sure they are looking into it.

Cyrus

DataDude wrote: »

At what point would you become indifferent to additional m2 on a house (ignoring resale value)?

I think for me, in a two storey house, 275m2 is plenty. I think I’d actually be averse to >350m2 due to costs of heating and hassle keeping clean etc.

its a funny one living in a circa 200m2 3 storey house i am of the opinion that 300m2 2 storey house would probably be just about perfect, but maybe if i was in one id want bigger :P

my folks house is over 3000 sq feet and its single storey but never felt unmanageable.

RichardAnd

Looks like another serving of build-to-rent development, with social housing on the side.

https://www.thejournal.ie/hines-gets-green-light-for-apartments-scheme-at-player-wills-factory-in-dublin-8-5414041-Apr2021/

The last paragraph caught my eye:

The price range of the apartments Hines is proposing to sell to the Council range from €238,828 for a studio apartment to €611,644 for a three bedroom apartment. With planning grants, the developer and Council can now enter talks on completing the proposed deal.

Where precisely are these price tags coming from? The cynical part of me is inclined to believe that this is simply the result of civil servants' spending money that isn't theirs, but likely there's more to it than that. This seems very over-priced, especially when one considers that buying in bulk would normally mean a discount on the average price.

Either way, developments like these do not comfort me when I think about the end-goal of where Ireland is going.

PropQueries

RichardAnd wrote: »

Looks like another serving of build-to-rent development, with social housing on the side.

https://www.thejournal.ie/hines-gets-green-light-for-apartments-scheme-at-player-wills-factory-in-dublin-8-5414041-Apr2021/

The last paragraph caught my eye:

The price range of the apartments Hines is proposing to sell to the Council range from €238,828 for a studio apartment to €611,644 for a three bedroom apartment. With planning grants, the developer and Council can now enter talks on completing the proposed deal.

Where precisely are these price tags coming from? The cynical part of me is inclined to believe that this is simply the result of civil servants' spending money that isn't theirs, but likely there's more to it than that. This seems very over-priced, especially when one considers that buying in bulk would normally mean a discount on the average price.

Either way, developments like these do not comfort me when I think about the end-goal of where Ireland is going.

Given how many homes the councils are buying, leasing, renting or subsidising through HAP, there must be some formula they’re using here.

Are they just allowing developers to just put them up on MyHome.ie or Daft.ie at whatever price, calling this the “market price” and then printing this out to justify whatever insane purchase or lease price they “agree” for some future “audit” purposes?

Nothing seems right about what’s going on IMO

[Deleted User]

Some lucky family is going to be given a €600,000+ 3 bed apartment........nice for them.....

PropQueries

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Some lucky family is going to be given a €600,000+ 3 bed apartment........nice for them.....

Nice for the developer/fund you mean?

[Deleted User]

PropQueries wrote: »

Nice for the developer/fund you mean?

Indeed, nice for them as well. Not great for the old taxpayer but meh what can we do...