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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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L1011

cnocbui wrote: »

We are in the EU, so you not appropriate. Perfectly Ok idea for buyers outside the EU.

EU countries can have such restrictions. It may be restricted to the older members who have slightly more rights - but we are one of those.

Denmark's is probably the best known.

I don't know if this would really have any affect though.

cnocbui

RichardAnd wrote: »

I believe that in some states, property within the state may only be purchased by citizens in the country. I would be ok favour of such a thing.

We are in the EU, so you not appropriate. Perfectly Ok idea for buyers outside the EU.

RichardAnd

Hubertj wrote: »

Surely they could put some regs in place such as x% has to be sold on open market or to FTBers, same as 10% has to be offered as social?

I believe that in some states, property within the state may only be purchased by citizens in the country. I would be ok favour of such a thing.

L1011

RichardAnd wrote: »

I know of two new build estates where this happened, though they were admittedly small estates.

This is ignored in the mainstream media. Why? I think we know why...

If this has happened it will be reported in the media quite extensively, in the property sections.

It is not the responsibility of mass market headline news sources to draw your attention to the property pages.

Hubertj

RichardAnd wrote: »

I know of two new build estates where this happened, though they were admittedly small estates.

This is ignored in the mainstream media. Why? I think we know why...

Surely they could put some regs in place such as x% has to be sold on open market or to FTBers, same as 10% has to be offered as social?

combat14

RichardAnd wrote: »

I know of two new build estates where this happened, though they were admittedly small estates.

This is ignored in the mainstream media. Why? I think we know why...

sounds like bubble speculation with low interest rates

RichardAnd

Reins wrote: »

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ey8gfO1XIAAqUqR?format=jpg&name=large

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ey8gfbmXMAA-rtn?format=jpg&name=large

Taken from crazyhouseprice

This is insane. Housing Estates sold off to foreign investors

I know of two new build estates where this happened, though they were admittedly small estates.

This is ignored in the mainstream media. Why? I think we know why...

[Deleted User]

The more investors
The bigger the mess
Usual story

Reins

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ey8gfO1XIAAqUqR?format=jpg&name=large

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ey8gfbmXMAA-rtn?format=jpg&name=large

Taken from crazyhouseprice

This is insane. Housing Estates sold off to foreign investors

The_Conductor

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Farmers have a LOT of free time and similar priorities.

Depends on which sector they are in- the beef sector may have a lot more time on their hands than others, but its by no means a trait that is across the board.

mcsean2163

Villa05 wrote: »

As are farmers, and they have a pretty effective lobby. Dont forget that you a very large voting bloc

Farmers have a LOT of free time and similar priorities.

SmokyMo

enricoh wrote: »

What happens when interest rates go up?
Our myriad of deep ongoing crises is mainly down to overly generous social welfare payments and high public sector wages.
Someone linked apartments for social housing at 800k a pop, if we borrowed even more the developer might squeeze a nice round million for them in future!

Same thing that happens when interest goes up on our current debt. Thats not here or there, and doesnt apply to my point.
You can get money now, credit price is at all time low. Can restructure current debt. Can issue bonds at negative rates. Whatever. Inflation is coming down like freight train. Use it.
Pour this money into, from infrastructure projects to housing to health to education. This country will reap benefits long term.
This has to be underpinned by reforms in those sectors. As we all know civil 'servants' like to suck government budget tit while doing sweet f'all, waiting for those pension top ups.

Councils paying those prices for properties getting back handers so that has to be rectified.

Viscount Aggro

Carrickmount or Montainview.
That's where the chophouse is located.
Was a high profile murder, whole family got convicted.

Claw Hammer

TheoBane wrote: »

Hey all,

Checking out Churchtown there in South Dublin, I heard that it had a bad rep a few years ago but does it still have the bad reputation now? Looking at houses in Mountain View/Carrickmount Drive at the moment

That's really Nutgrove.

Hubertj

TheoBane wrote: »

Hey all,

Checking out Churchtown there in South Dublin, I heard that it had a bad rep a few years ago but does it still have the bad reputation now? Looking at houses in Mountain View/Carrickmount Drive at the moment

Mountainview (holylands etc) didn’t have a good reputation when I was younger - 90s and 00s. Valentines and other families... No idea about it nowadays.

TheoBane

Hey all,

Checking out Churchtown there in South Dublin, I heard that it had a bad rep a few years ago but does it still have the bad reputation now? Looking at houses in Mountain View/Carrickmount Drive at the moment

enricoh

SmokyMo wrote: »

I don't understand why do you think its hard to borrow? In fact everything shows that it is very easy to do it right now, and there is massive appetitive for investors to buy debt, even at negative rates?
Ireland should be borrowing to the max right now to sort its myriad of deep ongoing crises.
Unfortunately finance department is run by illiterate charlatans without an ounce of critical thinking.

What happens when interest rates go up?
Our myriad of deep ongoing crises is mainly down to overly generous social welfare payments and high public sector wages.
Someone linked apartments for social housing at 800k a pop, if we borrowed even more the developer might squeeze a nice round million for them in future!

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

I guess the data most likely backs this up. However, I would wonder how many of these younger workers are here for the long-term or are just here for as long as the jobs remain here. Will they go back to their home countries if either the jobs dry up or once they have saved enough to buy a property back home?

It seems that we're placing a lot of faith on these younger workers remaining here long-term to keep up the demand for housing and to pay our future pension liabilities. And, remember, we're one of the very few countries in the developed world where our future pension liabilities are basically unfunded.

For example, every time we play the lotto, the Canadian teachers pension fund gets their percentage. Who will pay for our teacher's future pensions?

Maybe the state should take over the lottery

Mad_maxx

fliball123 wrote: »

The lobbyists always frame it that the ones on the lower wage are benefiting so its hard I have said it before on here in Ireland the lefties shout the loudest

and importantly , the lefties have the ear of media

PropQueries

Villa05 wrote: »

Keep the objective simple: value for money. We have the youngest population and one of the highest per capita health spends

Housing why pay 750k for units when the same unit can be delivered for a fraction of the cost

Childcare use schools infrastructure for after school care, why have we a system that doubles up infrastructure need

Public transport, sorry I'm lost for words

Cost savings = lower taxes = unification ideal

It's our money

I guess the data most likely backs this up. However, I would wonder how many of these younger workers are here for the long-term or are just here for as long as the jobs remain here. Will they go back to their home countries if either the jobs dry up or once they have saved enough to buy a property back home?

It seems that we're placing a lot of faith on these younger workers remaining here long-term to keep up the demand for housing and to pay our future pension liabilities. And, remember, we're one of the very few countries in the developed world where our future pension liabilities are basically unfunded.

For example, every time we play the lotto, the Canadian teachers pension fund gets their percentage. Who will pay for our teacher's future pensions?

Villa05

DataDude wrote:

Nice idea, but too diverse I'd say. Many would want increases in health spending, for me that's the last thing I want money spent on. Others housing (many would hate this), others transport, others childcare, others lower taxes. There's very little to unify them.

Keep the objective simple: value for money. We have the youngest population and one of the highest per capita health spends

Housing why pay 750k for units when the same unit can be delivered for a fraction of the cost

Childcare use schools infrastructure for after school care, why have we a system that doubles up infrastructure need

Public transport, sorry I'm lost for words

Cost savings = lower taxes = unification ideal

It's our money

DataDude

Villa05 wrote: »

How come higher taxpayers are not more vocal on how their taxes are spent and lobby for competent spending thereby reducing the need for high taxes

They are a powerful and numerous group judjing by income tax returns during the pandemic

We all know the taxpayer is being milked by lobbyists. Why not set up a lobby to tackle it

Nice idea, but too diverse I'd say. Many would want increases in health spending, for me that's the last thing I want money spent on. Others housing (many would hate this), others transport, others childcare, others lower taxes. There's very little to unify them.

On a slightly more contentious note, in my experience, higher earners tend to be less complainy/rebellious. These are the rules of the game in which you are operating, play it to the best of your abilities or find a new game. If some left wing government decides an 80% marginal tax rate over €100k is a good idea, I'll just leave. Won't be out on the streets with a placard and megaphone...

Would make good viewing on RTE though. Load of people in business attire
"What do we want?"
"Large houses in Dalkey and lower marginal tax rates"
"When do we want them?"
"NOW!"

Villa05

JimmyVik wrote:

Probably too busy working.

As are farmers, and they have a pretty effective lobby. Dont forget that you a very large voting bloc

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

How come higher taxpayers are not more vocal on how their taxes are spent and lobby for competent spending thereby reducing the need for high taxes

They are a powerful and numerous group judjing by income tax returns during the pandemic

We all know the taxpayer is being milked by lobbyists. Why not set up a lobby to tackle it

Our beloved public servants are the problem. They are not competent and, thanks to trade unions, are not accountable. You can have the best ideas in the world but if you can’t execute them there’s a problem. You think things would magically improve if you had obrion in charge of housing simply because he talks a good game?

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

How come higher taxpayers are not more vocal on how their taxes are spent and lobby for competent spending thereby reducing the need for high taxes

They are a powerful and numerous group judjing by income tax returns during the pandemic

We all know the taxpayer is being milked by lobbyists. Why not set up a lobby to tackle it

The lobbyists always frame it that the ones on the lower wage are benefiting so its hard I have said it before on here in Ireland the lefties shout the loudest

Cyrus

SmokyMo wrote: »

Sure that is the case, not arguing with that. I fail to see correlation to best talent with tax regimes.

Well if these people aren't coming here becase if the tax regime then we are not attracting best talent are we.

SmokyMo

Cyrus wrote: »

disagree, i have seen it first hand where senior people based in other tax jurisdictions decline to move to ireland because of our tax regime.

Sure that is the case, not arguing with that. I fail to see correlation to best talent with tax regimes.

JimmyVik

Villa05 wrote: »

How come higher taxpayers are not more vocal on how their taxes are spent and lobby for competent spending thereby reducing the need for high taxes

They are a powerful and numerous group judjing by income tax returns during the pandemic

We all know the taxpayer is being milked by lobbyists. Why not set up a lobby to tackle it

Probably too busy working.

Villa05

DataDude wrote:

Agree completely, its the easiest thing in the world to declare people over a certain threshold rich, propose higher taxes and everyone below that point goes "yay".

How come higher taxpayers are not more vocal on how their taxes are spent and lobby for competent spending thereby reducing the need for high taxes

They are a powerful and numerous group judjing by income tax returns during the pandemic

We all know the taxpayer is being milked by lobbyists. Why not set up a lobby to tackle it

woejus

DataDude wrote: »

Laffer Curve....

I didn't pay attention in macro class