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Beef price tracker 2

Buford T. Justice XIX

NOW WITH EVEN MORE BEEF PRICES!!

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bogman_bass

In any normal year May prices are the highest. She’s cattle dry up and grass cattle aren’t fit. Are we seeing that peak a couple of weeks earlier or will it continue up to the June bank holiday?

kk.man

morphy87 wrote: »

If you were to predict a price for late August early September what would you predict the base price to be?

Big finisher was told it will hold till the glut comes out or the weather breaks. I'd expect good weather in the aforementioned time span.

Reggie.

kk.man wrote: »

Back in January/February I predicted that lamb price would rise but also sustain for a long period. It came with a a health warning but I was proved right.

Now beef price prediction. Beef price will also rise and sustain till the late autumn where then it will drop. I base this on the following:
1. UK price well in excess of 5e and Irish nomad cattle sought after.
2. The reopening of the catering trade throughout Europe.
3. The on going high exports from South America and oceanica into Asia.
4. Irish cattle numbers less this year than last.
5. Finally I saw a few weeks back I saw a factory docket from a double trailer of a mixed bag of cattle given 4e flat on it's contents. This same large finisher was given 4.25 on a single load of Angus that week.

I am not naming ppl or plants but that's my theory.

Dont forget that barbecues are up 60% aswell

morphy87

kk.man wrote: »

Back in January/February I predicted that lamb price would rise but also sustain for a long period. It came with a a health warning but I was proved right.

Now beef price prediction. Beef price will also rise and sustain till the late autumn where then it will drop. I base this on the following:
1. UK price well in excess of 5e and Irish nomad cattle sought after.
2. The reopening of the catering trade throughout Europe.
3. The on going high exports from South America and oceanica into Asia.
4. Irish cattle numbers less this year than last.
5. Finally I saw a few weeks back I saw a factory docket from a double trailer of a mixed bag of cattle given 4e flat on it's contents. This same large finisher was given 4.25 on a single load of Angus that week.

I am not naming ppl or plants but that's my theory.

If you were to predict a price for late August early September what would you predict the base price to be?

kk.man

Back in January/February I predicted that lamb price would rise but also sustain for a long period. It came with a a health warning but I was proved right.

Now beef price prediction. Beef price will also rise and sustain till the late autumn where then it will drop. I base this on the following:
1. UK price well in excess of 5e and Irish nomad cattle sought after.
2. The reopening of the catering trade throughout Europe.
3. The on going high exports from South America and oceanica into Asia.
4. Irish cattle numbers less this year than last.
5. Finally I saw a few weeks back I saw a factory docket from a double trailer of a mixed bag of cattle given 4e flat on it's contents. This same large finisher was given 4.25 on a single load of Angus that week.

I am not naming ppl or plants but that's my theory.

Bass Reeves

kk.man wrote: »

There is huge demand for Hereford fat cattle atm. So much so that a R- grade Hereford same weight as u- continental was making same money in the Marts this week. I suspect these cattle were heading to the UK.

It's a kick in the teeth to continental suckler breeders.

The Suckler game has been in trouble for the last 5 years but lads are unwilling to adapt. A U- bullock the same weight as an R- Hereford would be lacking in fat cover. I presume that these bullocks are sub 700 kgs LW. The HE because of the level.of finish should kl nearly as heavy. Add in the HE bonus and he was probably underpriced compared to the Continental bullock

[Deleted User]

Jjameson wrote: »

Bought off the hoof flat or do they have to grade?

Theyd have to grade it.

€3:50 for p/o cows down here too.

Our local factory is killing cattle they haven't killed in years even from people they not killed for in years.

Saw an awful big tub of a bellyish cow in Mautys yesterday 845kg €1820. To be fair she was very fat but some price.

kk.man

There is huge demand for Hereford fat cattle atm. So much so that a R- grade Hereford same weight as u- continental was making same money in the Marts this week. I suspect these cattle were heading to the UK.

It's a kick in the teeth to continental suckler breeders.

downtown3858

DukeCaboom wrote: »

€4:75 all in for U grade heifers in the North.

For southern cattle? Isn’t happening

Water John

YFlyer wrote: »

No. Food consumption is just as much.

Ramadan, besides fasting by day, has feasting to break the fast at sunset, iftar. That's where the lamb is going.

[Deleted User]

€4:75 all in for U grade heifers in the North.

[Deleted User]

kk.man wrote: »

They are being torn apart in the sales ring and romour has it that cattle are being lived shipped to the UK (not the North) to be killed.

Give Larry a break.

Manchester to be exact.

kk.man

Jjameson wrote: »

The independent plants, the northern buyers not waiting their turn at the mart ring are getting to be a thorn in the cartels side.
Abp running advertising emphasising how they issue the cheque on the day is a story in itself.

Not a word of comment about it in the IFJ after running it despite it being a point of interest.
We know why Larry is in a position to this, and it wouldn’t exactly warm the cockles of your heart like a peat fire!

They are being torn apart in the sales ring and romour has it that cattle are being lived shipped to the UK (not the North) to be killed.

Give Larry a break.

Hard Knocks

charolais0153 wrote: »

I do t see how it would ,they would still get cattle the next year nothing would change

Prices are getting better at the moment cos lots of forward & finished stock went north
Less finished out of the sheds which had reduced the supply
If they drop the price, cattle will go to the ring where they’ll have to compete with the Northern buyers who are getting maybe €300 more

charolais0153

Hard Knocks wrote: »

For them

I do t see how it would ,they would still get cattle the next year nothing would change

YFlyer

Water John wrote: »

Does Ramadan have an influence on beef demand? It has begun.

No. Food consumption is just as much.

Hard Knocks

charolais0153 wrote: »

For whom

For them

Cavanjack

With restaurants/hotels closed and weddings postponed its hard to believe the price is where it is. They didn’t want cattle for the the last two years. Hopefully as Europe and the Uk opens up it’ll create more demand.
As for the price in September it won’t take much to knock it. If there is a drought the cows will be dumped again and the price will fall fairly fast.

charolais0153

Hard Knocks wrote: »

A stunt would be stupid and costly

For whom

morphy87

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I be afraid they would pull the stunt they pulled about 6-7 years ago in much the same situation, they promised bigger suppliers 4.2/kg and quoted the rest of us 4/kg and pulled it by 5c/kg for 2-3weeks in a row. They killed away the 4.2/kg cattle and backed up the rest of us

God only know what price it will be.

What would you call a large supplier at that time of the year number wise?

Hard Knocks

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I be afraid they would pull the stunt they pulled about 6-7 years ago in much the same situation, they promised bigger suppliers 4.2/kg and quoted the rest of us 4/kg and pulled it by 5c/kg for 2-3weeks in a row. They killed away the 4.2/kg cattle and backed up the rest of us

God only know what price it will be.

There’s allot of northern buyers around the marts for forward stores, cattle are making allot more up there
A stunt would be stupid and costly

Bass Reeves

morphy87 wrote: »

So in your opinion what do you think the base price will be the first week of September? Cattle seem to be scarce all right

I be afraid they would pull the stunt they pulled about 6-7 years ago in much the same situation, they promised bigger suppliers 4.2/kg and quoted the rest of us 4/kg and pulled it by 5c/kg for 2-3weeks in a row. They killed away the 4.2/kg cattle and backed up the rest of us

God only know what price it will be.

morphy87

Dunedin wrote: »

€3.80 steers. €3.85 heifers

It would be an improvement on 3 60 from last year anyway

Dunedin

morphy87 wrote: »

So in your opinion what do you think the base price will be the first week of September?

€3.80 steers. €3.85 heifers

morphy87

Bass Reeves wrote: »

The drop in n June can be very mixed. Last year they rise in July/August. You often find this in years where numbers are tight. The processor's drop prices in late May/early June to force out the last of the cattle idiots are feeding in the shed. It also panics some lads. Supply dries up a bit in late June early July and prices stabilize or rise slightly before the serious pull in September/October

So in your opinion what do you think the base price will be the first week of September? Cattle seem to be scarce all right

Anto_Meath

k mac wrote: »

How exactly does "on the grid" work or what exactly does it mean. Am i right in thinking for example i am sending cattle to the factory and the price they are giving is 4 euro a kg and if my cattle grade say U or R i get the QA bonus, but if i am offered and take an on the grid price this might be less, say 3.80 a kg but with this price i would get no bonus such as QA, but the other side is i would not get any deduction for being overfat, not grading U or R etc.

Kmac If you sell "on the grid" for a base price of say €4, the as the grades move away from the base the prices per kg goes up or down, this is an how the prices move across the grades from the base price.

U+ U= U- R+ R= R- O+ O= O- P+
2+ 24 18 12 6 Base Base -18 -24 -30 -36
3 24 18 12 6 Base Base -12 -18 -24 -30
4- 24 18 12 6 Base Base -12 -18 -24 -30
4= 24 18 12 6 Base Base -12 -24 -30 -36
4+ 18 12 6 0 -6 -6 -18 -24 -30 -36
5 0 -6 -12 -18 -24 -24 -36 -42 -48 -54

https://www.agriland.ie/factory-prices/quality-based-pricing-grid-calculator/

You will get your QA bonus (and breed bonus) on cattle if they are sold either "on the grid" or at a "flat price" once they meet the requirements.

limerick farmer

think it has more of an effect on sheepmeat

Water John

Does Ramadan have an influence on beef demand? It has begun.

Bass Reeves

jntsnk wrote: »

Traditional they will drop it sometime in June.

The drop in n June can be very mixed. Last year they rise in July/August. You often find this in years where numbers are tight. The processor's drop prices in late May/early June to force out the last of the cattle idiots are feeding in the shed. It also panics some lads. Supply dries up a bit in late June early July and prices stabilize or rise slightly before the serious pull in September/October

k mac

Anto_Meath wrote: »

I am hearing €3.85 for steers and €3.90 for Heifers. €3.95 and €4 can be got in Donegal if between 280 Kgs and 380 Kgs DW & QA, but I hear they work their grid different (don't know never sent cattle there) so what you gain in 1 way you could loose more the other. Heavy cattle are in scarce supply so I would guess €4 base should be achievable if you have a load.

How exactly does "on the grid" work or what exactly does it mean. Am i right in thinking for example i am sending cattle to the factory and the price they are giving is 4 euro a kg and if my cattle grade say U or R i get the QA bonus, but if i am offered and take an on the grid price this might be less, say 3.80 a kg but with this price i would get no bonus such as QA, but the other side is i would not get any deduction for being overfat, not grading U or R etc.