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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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Balluba

DataDude wrote: »

Where did you see this? Don't see it on the Irish Times article and appears the full report isn't on MyHome yet?

I have to admit Dude that I read it on page 4 Irish Daily Mail today.

In my defence I have read the other National newspapers as well

cnocbui

SheroP wrote: »

Thank you for your input
I have a buyer who approached me
I suggested a price and they snapped at it
Now hope to proceed between solicitors
Hope that I’m doing the right thing ?

I'm selling a property to someone who's been leasing it for grazing for years. I have had a few auctioneers look at it so I'm fairly happy with the price.

I'm fairly certain that it's going for less than it's worth and that there would be some people who would be interested in paying more for it if they happened to be looking for something unique at this point in time, but I think I might need to have it on the market for a couple of years and advertise it internationally to make that happen, so I'm ok with letting it go at the agreed value and just moving on.

zinfandel

Balluba wrote: »

It beggars belief if people are buying houses before they even set foot in them.

agreed, I have managed to get 2 viewings locally in empty properties and my goodness they were no where near as nice as the pictures led you to believe and way smaller in reality.

Balluba

RichardAnd wrote: »

Instead of the bid-to-view/sale-agree model that seems to be evolving, I think it would be better for prospective buyers to prove their funding before being giving a viewing. It would limit unnecessary viewings without accruing bids that only serve to drive the price up artificially.

Why has the government allowed this bid to view/sale agreed to continue when it is driving prices up ?

Villa05

Balluba wrote:

Why has the government allowed this bid to view/sale agreed to continue when it is driving prices up ?

I don't think it's a function of government

Cal4567

Most people I think understand what Part V is, google is your friend if you don’t. The concern is that in its negotiation, undertaken between the developer and the local authority during the planning process, that wily developers have run rings around inept local authority officials. It is actually a fixed financial mechanism based around costs and value, but the developer has ‘wiggle room’, namely the amount of their costs to construct, that they have to present to the local authority.

Developers have been arguing increasingly in recent years about how they are struggling to make a profit, usually using the cost of materials and labour and the inherent costs they have to pay back to the State, in various taxes. This assumption of theirs is no doubt correct but only if you compare it to the basic free for all they had in the Celtic Tiger years, which allowed them to accrue substantial profits under a much reduced level of regulation and scrutiny. The glory days of 25-30% profit have now been reduced to sub 10%.

It’s a very patchy framework. Some Councils are better than others in challenging developers on costs, others less so. It’s also flawed in areas of high value, city centre and smart parts of the southside mainly. Commentators here have quite rightly worked out that if you put those Part V properties on the market, their value would be a lot less.

Yes, it is yet another issue in housing policy that needs serious attention, but events such as the need to house large numbers of people have taken over, has forced the hand of stakeholders. It does look like money is just thrown at the entire arena of housing support, whether that’s through leasing, Part V and other supports such as HAP, to the benefit of the lucky ones who are housed.

As a footnote, it does appear to me to be all about now, with very little regard to where we will be in 10 or 20 years time. I reckon in 20-30 years it will be seen as another example of a lack of foresight into long term planning, which we do seem to be as a country rather good at.

Balluba

Villa05 wrote: »

I don't think it's a function of government

Who should step in so when the property services regulatory authority is not doing its job?

RichardAnd

Balluba wrote: »

Why has the government allowed this bid to view/sale agreed to continue when it is driving prices up ?

It's not a state mandate. Estate agents are doing this ostensibly because they are not allowed to do physical viewings.

Reins

Villa05 wrote: »

I don't think it's a function of government

Well if the government allowed viewings to resume on the 12th April along with construction it would help with the situation,no?

JimmyVik

Reins wrote: »

Well if the government allowed viewings to resume on the 12th April along with construction it would help with the situation,no?

Stepping back a bit though, how could anyone justify multiple strangers walking around another families house at the moment?

PropQueries

Cal4567 wrote: »

Most people I think understand what Part V is, google is your friend if you don’t. The concern is that in its negotiation, undertaken between the developer and the local authority during the planning process, that wily developers have run rings around inept local authority officials. It is actually a fixed financial mechanism based around costs and value, but the developer has ‘wiggle room’, namely the amount of their costs to construct, that they have to present to the local authority.

Developers have been arguing increasingly in recent years about how they are struggling to make a profit, usually using the cost of materials and labour and the inherent costs they have to pay back to the State, in various taxes. This assumption of theirs is no doubt correct but only if you compare it to the basic free for all they had in the Celtic Tiger years, which allowed them to accrue substantial profits under a much reduced level of regulation and scrutiny. The glory days of 25-30% profit have now been reduced to sub 10%.

It’s a very patchy framework. Some Councils are better than others in challenging developers on costs, others less so. It’s also flawed in areas of high value, city centre and smart parts of the southside mainly. Commentators here have quite rightly worked out that if you put those Part V properties on the market, their value would be a lot less.

Yes, it is yet another issue in housing policy that needs serious attention, but events such as the need to house large numbers of people have taken over, has forced the hand of stakeholders. It does look like money is just thrown at the entire arena of housing support, whether that’s through leasing, Part V and other supports such as HAP, to the benefit of the lucky ones who are housed.

As a footnote, it does appear to me to be all about now, with very little regard to where we will be in 10 or 20 years time. I reckon in 20-30 years it will be seen as another example of a lack of foresight into long term planning, which we do seem to be as a country rather good at.

Some interesting comments over the past few days and much appreciated and keep them coming. However, I don't believe for one second that the high cost being paid by the state is due to a lack of foresight or that our council officials are somehow being hoodwinked (my word, not yours) by the developers.

Anyone here can walk down to their nearest half built development site (incl. apartment schemes) and it's very little different to a half built development site in the 1960's, 70's, 80's, 90's or 2000's. It's still basically four walls and a roof no matter how they dress it up with with fancy big windows, solar panels, a bit of additional insulation or a few additional plug/USB points.

Sisk Living was able to design and build 90 A-rated houses for South Dublin council for under €180k each, all in, back in 2018 and construction inflation has not risen by much in the meantime. And, it definitely hasn't risen by over 100% if the DCC statement a few months ago that they can't build on council land for under €400k is to believed.

There's also no reason why standard new built a-rated three beds in the midlands are selling for about half the cost that DCC say they can build on their own land in the city.

With the Biden tax reforms estimated to cost us €2 billion per year (I think it will be much much higher, but I will go with that massaged media figure), higher health care another possible €2 billion per year going forward (clearing that backlog of appointments/operations is going to be very very expensive IMO), I don't see how the state can continue to keep paying what they currently are, either for new builds, second-hand homes, new long-term leases or new HAP agreements past July, borrowings or no borrowings IMO.

I don't know the reason, but it's definitely not a lack of foresight or a panic measure and appears more to do with keeping property prices high for whatever reason as a simple proper vacant property tax would have resolved all housing issues by now if implemented two years ago at no cost to the state IMO

Reins

JimmyVik wrote: »

Stepping back a bit though, how could anyone justify multiple strangers walking around another families house at the moment?

They seemed to do it very well before.

No more than 2 in one group

Masks + hand sanitizer

Hubertj

Is it safe to presume that anything which appears on ppr now would have been sale agreed pre lockdown? Therefore people would have physically viewed the property before purchasing?
I can’t see how anyone would actually purchase without viewing in person (bidx1 etc excluded). So a lot of what went sale agreed in q1 could go back on the market once people have a chance to set foot in a gaff?

DataDude

Hubertj wrote: »

Is it safe to presume that anything which appears on ppr now would have been sale agreed pre lockdown? Therefore people would have physically viewed the property before purchasing?
I can’t see how anyone would actually purchase without viewing in person (bidx1 etc excluded). So a lot of what went sale agreed in q1 could go back on the market once people have a chance to set foot in a gaff?

Probably for some, but definitely not all. Even under current restrictions it's completely allowed to view in person once you go sale agreed. Add in the fact that many EA's are not applying the rules rigidly, I think it's very possible that many properties have been viewed and sold during the lockdown.

RichardAnd

Reins wrote: »

Well if the government allowed viewings to resume on the 12th April along with construction it would help with the situation,no?

Are viewings to return on the 12th? I've not heard this.

However, given that the current model of going sale-agreed to view or bidding to view is driving up prices, estate agents may not so easily give this up.

Cal4567

PropQueries wrote: »

Some interesting comments over the past few days and much appreciated and keep them coming. However, I don't believe for one second that the high cost being paid by the state is due to a lack of foresight or that our council officials are somehow being hoodwinked (my word, not yours) by the developers.

e IMO

Yes, I agree. I'm just trying to remain on the side of the moderators here. so I have had to curtail some of my more outlandish views.

Yes, a clear need to keep property prices high to keep voters reasonably content, if they have homes now mortgage free or are coming to the end of their terms. I do stand by my concerns that this is yet another area where we haven't thought through the consequences and that appears to be a national trait.

Reins

RichardAnd wrote: »

Are viewings to return on the 12th? I've not heard this.

However, given that the current model of going sale-agreed to view or bidding to view is driving up prices, estate agents may not so easily give this up.

I think if they were to we'd of heard by now so assume they aren't.

Due to a low volume of what estate agents must have to sell right now I think they'd be happier to get back to physical viewings plus I've heard there's increased sale agreeds falling through which benefits no one.

JimmyVik

Reins wrote: »

They seemed to do it very well before.

No more than 2 in one group

Masks + hand sanitizer

There is a lot more virus around now than then though.

RichardAnd

Reins wrote: »

I think if they were to we'd of heard by now so assume they aren't.

Due to a low volume of what estate agents must have to sell right now I think they'd be happier to get back to physical viewings plus I've heard there's increased sale agreeds falling through which benefits no one.

I hope they recommence viewings soon. The current situation is disruptive in the extreme.

zom

Can someone please explain me what "Arena-designed kitchens" means?
https://www.daft.ie/for-rent/knockrabo-mount-anville-road-goatstown-dublin-14/2621605

Villa05

Reins wrote:

Well if the government allowed viewings to resume on the 12th April along with construction it would help with the situation,no?

Estate agents will use every trick in the book and innovate new ones. The know the supply demand dynamic and will maximise it to their benefit. With sale agreed before viewing they are building a database of that demand that is desperate and can be further exploited

Take McWilliams advise and avoid the market until some form of normality returns

Reins

Villa05 wrote: »

Estate agents will use every trick in the book and innovate new ones. The know the supply demand dynamic and will maximise it to their benefit. With sale agreed before viewing they are building a database of that demand that is desperate and can be further exploited

Take McWilliams advise and avoid the market until some form of normality returns

I'd truely love to be able to take McWilliams advice but I can't.

I'm looking to buy without a mortgage meanwhile wasting money on rent as each month ticks by and asking prices are increasing.

Cyrus

zom wrote: »

Can someone please explain me what "Arena-designed kitchens" means?
https://www.daft.ie/for-rent/knockrabo-mount-anville-road-goatstown-dublin-14/2621605

This is assume

https://www.arenakitchens.com/

Villa05

zom wrote:

Can someone please explain me what "Arena-designed kitchens" means?

200p/m extra rent

yagan

Villa05 wrote: »

Estate agents will use every trick in the book and innovate new ones. The know the supply demand dynamic and will maximise it to their benefit. With sale agreed before viewing they are building a database of that demand that is desperate and can be further exploited

Take McWilliams advise and avoid the market until some form of normality returns

For EAs profit from a few maximised pandemic sales won't be much good if their turnover is still way down, and especially if there's lots of failed bids.

The current market is severely distorted and regardless of prices rising or falling it's in the EAs interests that sales happen.

[Deleted User]

Reins wrote: »

I'd truely love to be able to take McWilliams advice but I can't.

I'm looking to buy without a mortgage meanwhile wasting money on rent as each month ticks by and asking prices are increasing.

Surely you're in the perfect position to wait? You have cash sitting there, why would you rush to buy now, at the worst time?

Reins

bubblypop wrote: »

Surely you're in the perfect position to wait? You have cash sitting there, why would you rush to buy now, at the worst time?

I have a limited amount of cash and It's not like the market is going down any time soon.

Plus am in an Apt with no outdoor space and with lockdowns I'm starting to crack

RichardAnd

Villa05 wrote: »

Take McWilliams advise and avoid the market until some form of normality returns

In fairness, not everyone can do that. If one has a child on the way or is stuck paying high rent, it wouldn't be feasible to wait.

For my own part, I'm "opting out" for the time being. I'll play the game when it's back to how it used to be.

riclad

prices are going up, law of supply vs demand.
people want to live in houses rather than apartments.you would think an economist would understand that.
people need to live somewhere.
not everyone can work from home.
not everyone has a large spare room to turn into an office.
mcwilliams does not seem to understand basic economics.
and most people do not want to pay rent if they can get a mortgage
at a similar cost per month.
theres a tiny amount of houses for sale right now

is there any reason to think house prices will fall in the near future ?

Villa05

RichardAnd wrote:

In fairness, not everyone can do that. If one has a child on the way or is stuck paying high rent, it wouldn't be feasible to wait.

That's one of the reasons why I call it a bubble. Mania and fear are the same thing when it comes to bubbles

One of the significant contributing factors