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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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PropQueries

Cal4567 wrote: »

I haven’t posted here for some time. On the social housing side there is good news. Numbers in need of housing are down to around 60-70k from a peak of around 100,000. The cost though in getting to this point has been enormous. Some of us are just beginning to understand this now.

Yes, posters are right. Government have been kneejerked and panicked into this by public outrage/media comments/the opposition. We were much worse off than other countries due to not having a social housing programme from the time of the financial crash and we’ve been playing catch up ever since. We’ve had population increases as well to boot, year on year up until Covid. Like everywhere else, and why should Ireland be any different, the well documented reasons around affordability has pushed home ownership away from many. Put all these points together, as they’ve all surfaced at the same time.

Believe me as I have skin in the game, although not directly. The FG policy of Rebuilding Ireland, 2016, was a calling card to every two bit financial property chancer and ‘entrepreneur’, referred to by another poster as akin to investing in a government bond. The social housing leasing model, in existence post crash, was dusted down and given a new lease of life. i.e. made more attractive to the investor.

The initial leasing model was I believe introduced around a decade back to meet two ends. Many of Ireland’s property owning class (due entirely to gorging off the fat that was the Celtic Tiger) suddenly found themselves, after the Crash, with 2,3 or even more properties lying empty and unable to meet mortgage payments. The State had also stopped building any new social housing. A bright spark in the Dept. of Finance, Housing, whatever (who knows, they may have been themselves as much indebted) put these two issues together. In no time at all, sometimes the various offices of State can move surprisingly quickly when it needs to, mostly small time landlords had a safety net and thus leasing of social housing was spawned. It has now morphed into this large scale option following FG’s cry to the private enterprise world to help get it out of its crisis.

That’s enough for one message. I will come back tomorrow on what has gone on since 2016. It’s basically more kneejerking and panicking.

Looking forward to reading your analysis tomorrow and seeing if I agree with it

Hopefully more people will see it’s not that young people are lazy or spending too much on avocado toast etc.

If you’re young and trying to rent, it appears the rent is outside your budget because there’s a fair chance you’re competing against a HAP recipient i.e. the state (that’s not against HAP recipients as they have little choice but to accept this “handout”) and if you’re young and trying to buy, there’s also a fair chance you’re being outbid by the state or some fund acting as a middle-man for the state.

It’s not that young people are “lazy” or “wasting” their hard earned money. It’s that in many cases they’re competing against the state with unlimited access to ECB printed money IMO

I don’t believe my generation ever had to deal with such an unfair and in my mind immoral situation IMO

Less RTÉ documentaries on “helping” young people to “save” and more documentaries on explaining to them the reality of the situation is what’s needed IMO

jill_valentine

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Hire Plunkett Homes Ltd and you'll be grand!

Council Both Refused and Gave Permission for Francis Street Building to Be Torn Down

https://dublininquirer.com/2021/03/31/council-both-refused-and-gave-permission-for-francis-street-building-to-be-torn-down

I wondered what the craic was with this. I cycled past that building regularly and then one day it was like it had just been beamed off the face of the Earth overnight. Set off my sketchy spider sense.

Claw Hammer

PropQueries wrote: »

I don’t believe my generation ever had to deal with such an unfair and in my mind immoral situation IMO

Every generation has had its challenges. There was a time when there was no work and people had to leave the country. Now there is work but housing is expensive.
In 1980 there were 4 restaurants in Bllsbridge until Rolys opened, increasing that number by 25%.
There was no such thing as coffee to go, it was bring a flask!

mcsean2163

Cyrus wrote: »

sorry im not sure i understand you? are you saying (and sorry to anyone who lives in darndale im stereotyping) the best people live in somewhere like darndale and hence youd rather live there than blackrock?

i think blackrock has lost a little of its charm but its still up there as one of dublins nicer suburbs.

Yes, exactly that.

The likes of a former boss that stopped paying my wages and those of my colleagues, strung us along and then walked leaving suppliers and employees unpaid living in a Foxrock mansion, driving a Mercedes and still with his holiday home in Portugal.

Versus

I live in Dublin 8 near ballyfermot and some of the people I know would give you their last penny.

There's some great people in Blackrock but in general the focus is on material stuff, hierarchy, cars, etc. and if there anything like some of the rich families I know, they're psychopaths. Would hate to bring up kids in Blackrock where fashion and postcode are more valued than friendship and family.

MacronvFrugals

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Yes, exactly that.

The likes of a former boss that stopped paying my wages and those of my colleagues, strung us along and then walked leaving suppliers and employees unpaid living in a Foxrock mansion, driving a Mercedes and still with his holiday home in Portugal.

Versus

I live in Dublin 8 near ballyfermot and some of the people I know would give you there last penny.

There's some great people in Blackrock but in general the focus is on material stuff, hierarchy, cars, etc. and if there anything like some of the rich families I know, they're psychopaths. Would hate to bring up kids in Blackrock where fashion and postcode are more valued than friendship and family.

Reminds me of our old neighbour's who won the lotto and moved to Shrewsbury road, the wife cracked up when it dawned on her the whole road was "full of crooks" they soon sold up and moved abroad.

Cyrus

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Yes, exactly that.

The likes of a former boss that stopped paying my wages and those of my colleagues, strung us along and then walked leaving suppliers and employees unpaid living in a Foxrock mansion, driving a Mercedes and still with his holiday home in Portugal.

Versus

I live in Dublin 8 near ballyfermot and some of the people I know would give you there last penny.

There's some great people in Blackrock but in general the focus is on material stuff, hierarchy, cars, etc. and if there anything like some of the rich families I know, they're psychopaths. Would hate to bring up kids in Blackrock where fashion and postcode are more valued than friendship and family.

Fair enough, its a minority view but on the plus side you will get better bang for your buck. i presume you are going with the opposite of the worst house on the 'best' street

DataDude

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Yes, exactly that.

The likes of a former boss that stopped paying my wages and those of my colleagues, strung us along and then walked leaving suppliers and employees unpaid living in a Foxrock mansion, driving a Mercedes and still with his holiday home in Portugal.

Versus

I live in Dublin 8 near ballyfermot and some of the people I know would give you there last penny.

There's some great people in Blackrock but in general the focus is on material stuff, hierarchy, cars, etc. and if there anything like some of the rich families I know, they're psychopaths. Would hate to bring up kids in Blackrock where fashion and postcode are more valued than friendship and family.

I think you're generalizing Blackrock slightly. The vast majority who live there are hard working middle/upper middle class people. Not all like your former boss...and even if he's a terrible person, I suspect he isn't the worst neighbor in the world. You can always just ignore him - people pay the premium to avoid neighbors that you can't ignore!

JimmyVik

DataDude wrote: »

I think you're generalizing Blackrock slightly. The vast majority who live there are hard working middle/upper middle class people. Not all like your former boss...and even if he's a terrible person, I suspect he isn't the worst neighbor in the world. You can always just ignore him - people pay the premium to avoid neighbors that you can't ignore!

I think I would rather live in Blackrock than Ballyfermot myself, even if the former boss was living there too

Where was John Gilligan from?

hometruths

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Yes, exactly that.

The likes of a former boss that stopped paying my wages and those of my colleagues, strung us along and then walked leaving suppliers and employees unpaid living in a Foxrock mansion, driving a Mercedes and still with his holiday home in Portugal.

Versus

I live in Dublin 8 near ballyfermot and some of the people I know would give you there last penny.

There's some great people in Blackrock but in general the focus is on material stuff, hierarchy, cars, etc. and if there anything like some of the rich families I know, they're psychopaths. Would hate to bring up kids in Blackrock where fashion and postcode are more valued than friendship and family.

I know a Scottish fellow who lives in a lovely townhouse in a beautiful part of Edinburgh, grand Georgian squares etc.

He likes to pontificate that Edinburgh is a beautiful city with terrible people (middle class/well off/snooty etc) whereas Glasgow is an ugly city with wonderful people (working class), saying that his ideal would be if was just able to swap the people around (apart from himself obviously).

Oddly enough he's never thought of the solution of simply moving to Glasgow.

mcsean2163

Pelezico wrote: »

Talk about stereotypes. The Ballyfermot people are salt of the earth but Foxrock people dont value their kids.

Nonsense from start to finish and must be called out.

-Edit-
Blackrock. Bottom of my list.

Hubertj

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/new-to-market/sandymount-victorian-for-3-5m-is-an-affair-to-remember-1.4529047

This is a very nice gaff but I’m struggling to understand the €3.5m prices when compared to other properties in that range. Seems very high. I like Sandymount but 1 thing really annoys me about it - getting stuck at the rail crosssing travelling in and out when the Dart passes.

RichardAnd

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Reminds me of our old neighbour's who won the lotto and moved to Shrewsbury road, the wife cracked up when it dawned on her the whole road was "full of crooks" they soon sold up and moved abroad.

Something I've never understood is why many people who come into money move to areas that they do not know simply because they are associated with money. I understand that the houses in Shrewsbury road are exquisite, but there are wonderful homes in many parts of Ireland.

Personally, if I were to win enough money to make Shrewsbury road within my grasp, I would instead buy a few acres of good land in a remote part of Ireland with a nice house. It would cost a lot less, and the the money left over could be invested.

Probably, I'd buy a few million euros of gold and bury it on the property, only to forget where it is in my old age thus establishing a local legend of buried treasure!

PropQueries

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Thats a interesting question, statistics are here.

I don't the way the figures are presented, eg HAP is a carry over figure, while builds and leasing are presented as additions not totals as far as I can see. Its confusing to me.

Thanks for those. At least there's some figures people can look at now.

DataDude

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/new-to-market/sandymount-victorian-for-3-5m-is-an-affair-to-remember-1.4529047

This is a very nice gaff but I’m struggling to understand the €3.5m prices when compared to other properties in that range. Seems very high. I like Sandymount but 1 thing really annoys me about it - getting stuck at the rail crosssing travelling in and out when the Dart passes.

Very nice, but agreed on the price. Will be interesting to see the full pictures on myhome/daft but on first look, I'd have put it in the €2-€3m range, definitely not 3-4.

On a positive note, the number of €1m+ houses going up for sale in the last week or so has been remarkable. For all the talk of pent up demand, I do wonder is there's also a lot of pent up supply in this market given how weak it's been since 2018!

Cyrus

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/new-to-market/sandymount-victorian-for-3-5m-is-an-affair-to-remember-1.4529047

This is a very nice gaff but I’m struggling to understand the €3.5m prices when compared to other properties in that range. Seems very high. I like Sandymount but 1 thing really annoys me about it - getting stuck at the rail crosssing travelling in and out when the Dart passes.

beautiful house but id agree, its not big enough a property to support that i wouldnt have thought.

MacronvFrugals

In today's IT, as another poster mentioned "every 2-bit chancer" is jumping on this alternative and much more lucrative government bond

New Beginning secures over €200m for new housing fund

Investment firm RoundShield Partners has received commitments of more than €200 million in a first close of a new Irish residential real estate fund with debt advisory group New Beginning.

New Beginning, which is led by barrister and debt adviser Ross Maguire, first partnered with RoundShield for the Irish Social Housing Fund in 2018, with the latter initially promising up to €50 million for properties that are let to local authorities under 25-year leases.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/new-beginning-secures-over-200m-for-new-housing-fund-1.4531461

mcsean2163

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/new-to-market/sandymount-victorian-for-3-5m-is-an-affair-to-remember-1.4529047

This is a very nice gaff but I’m struggling to understand the €3.5m prices when compared to other properties in that range. Seems very high. I like Sandymount but 1 thing really annoys me about it - getting stuck at the rail crosssing travelling in and out when the Dart passes.

3.5 for a four bed semi d. Bonkers

Cal4567

Since the Rebuilding Ireland initiative was launched in the summer of 2016, the State’s centre, the Department of Housing, has been under the cosh from government to get things moving. They in turn did all they could do, and that was to approach each local authority, to whip up some action. Most of the latter had been almost dormant since the Crash – some of us would say, that’s not much different to how they’ve always been – but they started to ramp things up. New housing strategies, employed a few new faces, have a good look at what land they have that they can build on, put adverts out to local developers for any sites they own which the Council may be keen to acquire. At the same time the existing Approved Housing Bodies, such as Cluid, Tuath, Respond and a host of others, they too are given funds to develop new housing. Their preferred option is to buy turnkey from the developer although they have also been turning the sod themselves.

A point made in the SBP this weekend was that the existing funding process to access State funds remains cumbersome, a process that involves detailed scrutiny by the local authority and the Department of Housing. Some would say this is overlapping. On top of that there is a ‘private finance’ element as not 100% costs are met by State funds. This usually involves another arm of the State, the Housing Finance Agency, although sometimes it can be a private lender such as a bank. What you would think would take 2/3 months involving these entities drags on for much more than double that, and sometimes a lot longer. (I have a family member who is a small developer and has regular experience of this). His view is if they tell me it is 6 months, I diarise 9 at least. We’ve always reveled in an intense level of bureaucracy, why should this business be any different.

The varying abilities of each Council combined with the resources of the AHBs on their own are not enough to meet the increasing demand. The entire design, planning, build and funding process can take as much as 3 years for even the most modest of units. Property investment vehicles could see this and have been lobbying government hard that they could provide a solution and one that involves low initial cost to the State. Plus, we’re the private sector, we can do it quickly. What’s not to like about that?

The trick was to show the State that private investment companies could just jet in, buy the lot off the developer, who at that point may have been aiming to sell on houses and apartments to FTBs. Of course, leasing was more attractive to the investor, but also had a minimal initial outlay to the State and meant good numbers being delivered, and fairly sharply. Music to the ear of a politician who is only interested in as afar as the next election.

SF’s O’Broin has been getting out his calculator on this issue for quite awhile. Yes, other Left parties have been slow to come to the party. The 10/15/20 year costs to Ireland Inc are abhorrent compared to building ourselves.

The usual newspaper opinion types were either asleep at the wheel at this time, cheering along with the rest of the Chattering Classes re abortion and same sex marriages, to take any notice of this. Who knows, perhaps they thought it was a good idea. It has reduced numbers in need of housing, that cannot be denied.

We have though had more interest from the media on all of this in recent months. Most likely hearing the noises coming out of the middle classes who suddenly find their own adult kids, in relatively well paid employment, being unable to access reasonably priced homes to buy. That plus the Feb 2020 election when middle Ireland realised an SF led government was soon as more likely as ever.

The other glaring problem apart from paying silly amounts leasing over a 20 year period, is the increasing issue of the costs pertaining to Part V, particularly in high cost areas. I’ll come back to that tomorrow. It is another problem of the State’s own making and should have been foreseen.

Villa05

Robert short rte has a piece titled
The game is up on corporate tax

If this is the case, surely the next option that we could compete on is cost of living through housing

We probably have an oversupply of commercial property after the boom in that sector over the last 5 years so office space should be more competitively priced together with the WFH impact.

For future, use corpo tax and 0% finance to develop affordable yet profitable housing for transient and permanent workers needed for the excess workers required.

Look at Limerick for the effect of having competitively priced housing and how that city has recovered from a huge body blow of loosing one of the biggest employers in the state to having a heavily diversified range of service and manafacturing industry providing more jobs than the city ever had.

Admittedly the property disease we have become accustomed to in this country is seeding here now and we are having shortages and spiralling rents.
All can be cured with a small dose of competent management of resources

awec

Interesting piece: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0408/1208596-european-house-prices/

Irish house prices have risen in line with the EU average since 2010, but rental increases are vastly higher.

hometruths

awec wrote: »

Interesting piece: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0408/1208596-european-house-prices/

Irish house prices have risen in line with the EU average since 2010, but rental increases are vastly higher.

Are house prices really up just 28.6% since 2010? Feels like a lot more.

awec

schmittel wrote: »

Are house prices really up just 28.6% since 2010? Feels like a lot more.

I don't know to be honest, it does sound a bit low and there may be some strange corner case data involved. But it's from EuroStat, so their data must be at least valid and presumably unbiased.

RichardAnd

schmittel wrote: »

Are house prices really up just 28.6% since 2010? Feels like a lot more.

It's an average across the whole country, I would say. My parents house was valued at 250k about about decade ago, but it would sell for well over 500k today. Ignoring the current nonsense with "bid to view", that's still a huge increase.

hometruths

awec wrote: »

I don't know to be honest, it does sound a bit low and there may be some strange corner case data involved. But it's from EuroStat, so their data must be at least valid and presumably unbiased.

I guess they were still falling 2010 through 2013 so maybe 30 odd percent rise is plausible since 2010.

DataDude

schmittel wrote: »

I guess they were still falling 2010 through 2013 so maybe 30 odd percent rise is plausible since 2010.

Yeah you're right, CSO has it that it fell a further 28% from 2010 to 2012. So a 77% rise from the bottom but only up 27% from 2010...oh take me back to 2012, would have been great fun!

Villa05

schmittel wrote:

I guess they were still falling 2010 through 2013 so maybe 30 odd percent rise is plausible since 2010.

They were significant double digit falls. Limerick and Waterford did not hit bottom untill Mid 2014

The rental inflation is terrifying, we are creating a huge divide. You can see why FF are pushing shared ownership, despite all the advise against. Imagine if income taxes rose by that much because that is the scale we are talking about for those workers caught in the rental trap

Shows also how incredibly dumb long term leasing is as a policy, maybe we will see income tax rises of that proportion to cover the cost in the future

Browney7

schmittel wrote: »

Are house prices really up just 28.6% since 2010? Feels like a lot more.

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/terraced-house-67-richmond-road-drumcondra-dublin-3/3150250 This house is listed at 650k (very aspirational) and sold for just over 200k in late 2013 (spent money on it presumably in that time also) so high demand areas are likely up a lot more. Didn't the market hit the trough in 2012?

awec

DataDude wrote: »

Yeah you're right, CSO has it that it fell a further 28% from 2010 to 2012. So a 77% rise from the bottom but only up 27% from 2010...oh take me back to 2012, would have been great fun!

Yes.

It is often said on here that Ireland's housing market (buying, not renting) is crazy, yet the stats suggest that we are in line with Europe. We also know that the current market is still significantly below 2008 levels.

So, putting the supply issues to the side (a big issue to put aside, I agree), would it be a really bad read to think that the market here is actually not as crazy as has been made out?

Ush1

Browney7 wrote: »

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/terraced-house-67-richmond-road-drumcondra-dublin-3/3150250 This house is listed at 650k (very aspirational) and sold for just over 200k in late 2013 (spent money on it presumably in that time also) so high demand areas are likely up a lot more. Didn't the market hit the trough in 2012?

Yeah not sure it's worth that but lovely house now in fairness.

just_nosy

Ush1 wrote: »

Yeah not sure it's worth that but lovely house now in fairness.

It's a lovely house but not sure about the area? Right next to the Shelbourne FC stadium as well?