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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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Cyrus

mcsean2163 wrote: »

I couldn't disagree more with the first line. I've been actively resisting Blackrock for a long time.

When people ask is somewhere is a good area, I say the worst live in the 'good' areas and the best in the 'worst' areas. Obviously not true for everyone but I think it's a good rule of thumb. As an investment it's probably a good long term one but living there...

Wife is very keen to move but Blackrock is the one place in Ireland I've said no.

sorry im not sure i understand you? are you saying (and sorry to anyone who lives in darndale im stereotyping) the best people live in somewhere like darndale and hence youd rather live there than blackrock?

i think blackrock has lost a little of its charm but its still up there as one of dublins nicer suburbs.

Villa05

fliball123 wrote:

This is what happens when the tail wags the dog. The lefties are pushing this agenda and without adequate knowledge or man power to actually build housing. The govenement are going down this route. Its crazy stuff and PAC like any other body are just a pack of nodding dogs once their wage and pensions are fine its nothing to see here. I heard this on newstalk this morning and it was spun in a positive way more housing for the underprivileged. The really depressing thing is FF/FG are far more right leaning (but still learning to the left) than SF god knows what the sinners will do.

It seems odd that the left would be blamed for current housing policy when they are a group that were never in power.
Ff/Fg have overseen the mess in particular over the last 30 years with a litany of planning scandals, questionable relationships with developers, brown envelope scandals, taking the country into bankruptcy etc

Housing has become a welfare scheme for the wealthy with layer upon layer of profit taking, jobs for the boys/girls

Of course Newstalk would be singing its praises. Every good scam needs the media on song. Think of the increased advertising revenue from rising House prices. Pay 20k for for that kitchen shure it will add 40k to the value of your home

After all building houses is so complicated especially when you own so much land, have acesss to 0% long term finance and increasingly an available pool of labour

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

In 2020 we had c. 165k registered private landlords and in 2016, we had c. 175k according to the RTB.

How many long-term lease agreements have been signed by the councils over that period?

And how many do you think will be getting out of the game once they can legally evict tenants once corona is gone? Have you a link to the RTB numbers?

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

It does beg the question. If you’re buying your first home, whether it’s a new build, a second hand home or a home that’s in need of refurbishment, who are you really bidding against?

Is it really such a conspiracy theory anymore to state the obvious, in many cases anyway?

I started a thread a few weeks ago about what the councils are doing and was asked if I have proof.
Obviously i couldnt post how I know this as its from a close friend who is actually involved in acquisitions for the council who told me, and they are hardly going to send me documents i can post.

The thread got closed by the mods as a conspiracy theory.
Someone needs to reign in the councils. What councils are doing is worthy of a prime time episode, but you wont see RTE doing a program on the damage councils are doing to ordinary home buyers.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

And how many do you think will be getting out of the game once they can legally evict tenants once corona is gone? Have you a link to the RTB numbers?

All the figures I provided are in the research and statistics tab on the rtb website.

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

It seems odd that the left would be blamed for current housing policy when they are a group that were never in power.
Ff/Fg have overseen the mess in particular over the last 30 years with a litany of planning scandals, questionable relationships with developers, brown envelope scandals, taking the country into bankruptcy etc

Housing has become a welfare scheme for the wealthy with layer upon layer of profit taking, jobs for the boys/girls

Of course Newstalk would be singing its praises. Every good scam needs the media on song. Think of the increased advertising revenue from rising House prices. Pay 20k for for that kitchen shure it will add 40k to the value of your home

After all building houses is so complicated especially when you own so much land, have acesss to 0% long term finance and increasingly an available pool of labour

Are you kidding me never in power ??? even do FF/FG are supposedly right leaning the majority of their policies have been going toward the left. You only have to look at how much we spend on welfare in the country. Or the mantra of be a mammy and get a free gaff. Its madness the lefties are shouting loudest and are being pandered to and have more or less been putting a Sinn Fein gun to their heads to make stupid decisions like buying up property at higher price points.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Are you kidding me never in power ??? even do FF/FG are supposedly right leaning the majority of their policies have been going toward the left. You only have to look at how much we spend on welfare in the country. Or the mantra of be a mammy and get a free gaff. Its madness the lefties are shouting loudest and are being pandered to and have more or less been putting a Sinn Fein gun to their heads to make stupid decisions like buying up property at higher price points.

How much we spend on welfare? Almost half the “welfare” budget is pensions. A lot of the rest is children’s allowance, carers allowance etc.

If you got two people, both working in a supermarket, are they now “welfare” recipients because their wages can’t afford the rent? A rent which would have collapsed if the government didn’t double the HAP payments to €1 billion this year.

To understand how much the HAP payments are keeping existing “market” rents where they are, €1 billion is 50,000 rental properties at an average rent of €20k per annum.

Would the landlords have kept those c. 50,000 properties empty or would they have lowered their rent if the state wasn’t paying HAP?

Would “market” rents have dropped by in excess of 50% without HAP?

I believe so.

Villa05

JimmyVik wrote:

The thread got closed by the mods as a conspiracy theory. Someone needs to reign in the councils. What councils are doing is worthy of a prime time episode, but you wont see RTE doing a program on the damage councils are doing to ordinary home buyers.

I'd understand why the mods might close it but we do need a blogger like namawinelake again. Investigative journalism is dead unfortunately. Highly questionable practices going on with no one held accountable

fliball123 wrote:

Are you kidding me never in power ??? even do FF/FG are supposedly right leaning the majority of their policies have been going toward the left. You only have to look at how much we spend on welfare in the country. Or the mantra of be a mammy and get a free gaff. Its madness the lefties are shouting loudest and are being pandered to and have more or less been putting a Sinn Fein gun to their heads to make stupid decisions like buying up property at higher price points.

Your spoofing now, another poster hit the nail on the head, gov manipulating leftist ideals to pursue their own neo lib policies
SF have been the biggest critic (unfortunately) of housing procurement and offering much lower cost alternatives.
I really don't understand how the social Democrats and Labour are not more voiceferus on the issue

L1011

JimmyVik wrote: »

The thread got closed by the mods as a conspiracy theory.

Because you were, then as now, unable to provide anything proof other than 'a mate told me'. You can drop the line of discussion here too until proof exists. Do not reply to this post.

Cuddlesworth

PropQueries wrote: »

All the figures I provided are in the research and statistics tab on the rtb website.

Data is annoying as RTB like to change what they report on, in general though, we lost nearly 10k landlords in 4 years and the percentage of rentals vs owner occupier has gone from a high of 16.95% to 15.89% during a period where rent was increasing well past inflation.

I'd say this has possibly been going on longer, but was covered up by the lag in getting landlords to register with the RTB over the years.

Date Landlords Landlords change Tennancies Tenancies change Total numbers of houses New dwellings built Percetnage of Rentals
31/12/2016 175,250 325,372 2,022,895 0.16084473
31/03/2017 2,025,674 2,779
30/06/2017 177,884 2,634 343,946 18,574 2,028,972 3,298 0.169517371
30/09/2017 176,251 -1,633 341,246 -2,700 2,032,757 3,785 0.167873484
31/12/2017 174,001 -2,250 339,447 -1,799 2,037,341 4,584 0.166612757
31/03/2018 173,951 -50 339,126 -321 2,040,816 3,475 0.166171767
30/06/2018 173,725 -226 339,905 779 2,045,220 4,404 0.166194835
30/09/2018 173,472 -253 339,117 -788 2,049,891 4,671 0.165431723
31/12/2018 173,197 -275 336,890 -2,227 2,055,413 5,522 0.163903799
31/03/2019 173,675 478 340,687 3,797 2,059,662 4,249 0.165409179
30/06/2019 173,624 -51 341,908 1,221 2,064,463 4,801 0.16561595
30/09/2019 171,369 -2,255 337,086 -4,822 2,070,113 5,650 0.162834589
31/12/2019 169,960 -1,409 335,685 -1,401 2,076,500 6,387 0.161659042
31/03/2020 169,593 -367 336,539 854 2,081,466 4,966 0.16168364
30/06/2020 168,106 -1,487 334,229 -2,310 2,084,703 3,237 0.160324516
30/09/2020 166,615 -1,491 332,237 -1,992 2,089,776 5,073 0.158982111
31/12/2020 165,736 -879 2,097,176 7,400

PropQueries

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Data is annoying as RTB like to change what they report on, in general though, we lost nearly 10k landlords in 4 years and the percentage of rentals vs owner occupier has gone from a high of 16.95% to 15.89% during a period where rent was increasing well past inflation.

I'd say this has possibly been going on longer, but was covered up by the lag in getting landlords to register with the RTB over the years.

Date Landlords Landlords change Tennancies Tenancies change Total numbers of houses New dwellings built Percetnage of Rentals
31/12/2016 175,250 325,372 2,022,895 0.16084473
31/03/2017 2,025,674 2,779
30/06/2017 177,884 2,634 343,946 18,574 2,028,972 3,298 0.169517371
30/09/2017 176,251 -1,633 341,246 -2,700 2,032,757 3,785 0.167873484
31/12/2017 174,001 -2,250 339,447 -1,799 2,037,341 4,584 0.166612757
31/03/2018 173,951 -50 339,126 -321 2,040,816 3,475 0.166171767
30/06/2018 173,725 -226 339,905 779 2,045,220 4,404 0.166194835
30/09/2018 173,472 -253 339,117 -788 2,049,891 4,671 0.165431723
31/12/2018 173,197 -275 336,890 -2,227 2,055,413 5,522 0.163903799
31/03/2019 173,675 478 340,687 3,797 2,059,662 4,249 0.165409179
30/06/2019 173,624 -51 341,908 1,221 2,064,463 4,801 0.16561595
30/09/2019 171,369 -2,255 337,086 -4,822 2,070,113 5,650 0.162834589
31/12/2019 169,960 -1,409 335,685 -1,401 2,076,500 6,387 0.161659042
31/03/2020 169,593 -367 336,539 854 2,081,466 4,966 0.16168364
30/06/2020 168,106 -1,487 334,229 -2,310 2,084,703 3,237 0.160324516
30/09/2020 166,615 -1,491 332,237 -1,992 2,089,776 5,073 0.158982111
31/12/2020 165,736 -879 2,097,176 7,400

Did we lose 10,000 landlords over the past 4 years or did 10,000 landlords enter into long term lease agreements with their local council where the council replaced the landlord as the landlord for the duration of the long term lease?

Long term leases where the council is the landlord aren’t registered with the RTB.

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

I'd understand why the mods might close it but we do need a blogger like namawinelake again. Investigative journalism is dead unfortunately. Highly questionable practices going on with no one held accountable

Your spoofing now, another poster hit the nail on the head, gov manipulating leftist ideals to pursue their own neo lib policies
SF have been the biggest critic (unfortunately) of housing procurement and offering much lower cost alternatives.
I really don't understand how the social Democrats and Labour are not more voiceferus on the issue

So even do government has changed very recently you think every government that get into power (to date) have an agenda for neo-liberalism? A lot of what is going on has been unforseen. The most in your face example of this is property prices in the face of Brexit and a year long global pandemic, hundreds and thousands of people on pup payments and yet prices went up and they went up globally as well. Unless its the whole world political class in on the act, Illuminati anyone?? You are giving politicians way to much props for being clever enough to execute a neo-liberalism ideology. This is the same bunch of clowns who cant control spending in the HSE, thought it was a good idea to shutdown the country and then have a nice lunch together after a big game of golf. Threw away 60 billion on Anglo. I mean look at how badly run our PS systems are HSE being a classic example. FF and FG have been in power in some shape or form since the birth of the state. Politicians are just not that clever sorry but this is probably the biggest fly in the ointment for this particular conspiracy theory.

Now I do counter that the government have interfered with the housing market and I believe a lot of this is in reaction to the bad press they get when homelessness/housing figures are thrown in their face. They are now panicking they know that for the first time ever SF have a real shot at getting into power at the next general election. I think they just want to stay in power and will pay silly prices for apartments to make it look like they are doing something about the housing crisis.

Subutai

PropQueries wrote: »

Did we lose 10,000 landlords over the past 4 years or did 10,000 landlords enter into long term lease agreements with their local council where the council replaced the landlord as the landlord for the duration of the long term lease?

Long term leases where the council is the landlord aren’t registered with the RTB.

Target is 10k by the end of rebuilding Ireland, 2.5k by 2022.

Unlikely to be 10k individual landlords though as the aim is to target large developments. Argument could be made that this displaces landlords of course

https://rebuildingireland.ie/news/minister-english-launches-enhanced-long-term-social-housing-leasing-scheme/

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Did we lose 10,000 landlords over the past 4 years or did 10,000 landlords enter into long term lease agreements with their local council where the council replaced the landlord as the landlord for the duration of the long term lease?

Long term leases where the council is the landlord aren’t registered with the RTB.

Have you any numbers on the long term leases??

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

Did we lose 10,000 landlords over the past 4 years or did 10,000 landlords enter into long term lease agreements with their local council where the council replaced the landlord as the landlord for the duration of the long term lease?

Long term leases where the council is the landlord aren’t registered with the RTB.

They would have bought some too, though it seems im not allowed to talk about that, so i wont go any further.

MacronvFrugals

Villa05 wrote: »

I'd understand why the mods might close it but we do need a blogger like namawinelake again. Investigative journalism is dead unfortunately. Highly questionable practices going on with no one held accountable

I really don't understand how the social Democrats and Labour are not more voiceferus on the issue

I think Labour are afraid because namawinelake revealed their senators were trying to acquire cheap(cents on the euro) apartments off NAMA around that time

Not to mention they were also integral in the build to rent fund utopia we have today

DataDude

More terraced property porn. Hunters doing their usual lowballing on asking. This was bought for €2.2m in March 2018...

As incredible as the house is, not sure how I'd feel about paying €2m+ for a house and fighting for street parking every night?

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/8-clifton-terrace-seapoint-avenue-monkstown-county-dublin/4493171

Cuddlesworth

PropQueries wrote: »

Did we lose 10,000 landlords over the past 4 years or did 10,000 landlords enter into long term lease agreements with their local council where the council replaced the landlord as the landlord for the duration of the long term lease?

Long term leases where the council is the landlord aren’t registered with the RTB.

Thats a interesting question, statistics are here.

I don't the way the figures are presented, eg HAP is a carry over figure, while builds and leasing are presented as additions not totals as far as I can see. Its confusing to me.

Stark

DataDude wrote: »

More terraced property porn. Hunters doing their usual lowballing on asking. This was bought for €2.2m in March 2018...

As incredible as the house is, not sure how I'd feel about paying €2m+ for a house and fighting for street parking every night?

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/8-clifton-terrace-seapoint-avenue-monkstown-county-dublin/4493171

If I was buying a house for the long term, I'd definitely avoid on-street parking. Chances are that (rightfully) a lot of on-street parking will be converted to bus lanes/cycle lanes/extra pedestrian space in the not so distant future.

Hubertj

DataDude wrote: »

More terraced property porn. Hunters doing their usual lowballing on asking. This was bought for €2.2m in March 2018...

As incredible as the house is, not sure how I'd feel about paying €2m+ for a house and fighting for street parking every night?

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/8-clifton-terrace-seapoint-avenue-monkstown-county-dublin/4493171

Ah nice. That is a cracking gaff. It doesn’t mention any off street parking though. That would be annoying.

Cuddlesworth

2016 to 2017 change is odd.

RAS [4][7] HAP [5][7] Total Change New Leasing Leases change
2016 1,256 12,075 13,331 792
2017 890 17,916 18,806 5,475 827 4,648
2018 755 17,926 18,681 -125 1,001 -1,126
2019 1,043 17,025 18,068 -613 1,161 -1,774
2020 913 15,885 16,798 -1,270 1,440 -2,710

In fairness to the councils, they have added a lot of housing stock over the last 4 years.

Year Build Total Leasing Total Added
2016 2,965 792 3,757
2017 4,054 827 4,881
2018 4,798 1,001 5,799
2019 6,074 1,161 7,235
2020 5,073 1,440 6,513
2016-2020 22,964 5221 28,185

[Deleted User]

DataDude wrote: »

More terraced property porn. Hunters doing their usual lowballing on asking. This was bought for €2.2m in March 2018...

As incredible as the house is, not sure how I'd feel about paying €2m+ for a house and fighting for street parking every night?

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/8-clifton-terrace-seapoint-avenue-monkstown-county-dublin/4493171

I don't really like that, particularly the extension in the back.
I presume you could put a drive in at the front though?

Cyrus

DataDude wrote: »

More terraced property porn. Hunters doing their usual lowballing on asking. This was bought for €2.2m in March 2018...

As incredible as the house is, not sure how I'd feel about paying €2m+ for a house and fighting for street parking every night?

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/8-clifton-terrace-seapoint-avenue-monkstown-county-dublin/4493171

very nice, and a great location but the parking and the state of the place next door would be an issue for me (if i had 2m to spend :pac:)

DataDude

bubblypop wrote: »

I don't really like that, particularly the extension in the back.
I presume you could put a drive in at the front though?

Not sure of particulars but there's lots of driveways like that around Blackrock/Monkstown. They never seem to be converted.

There are 6 houses in that terrace of similar size and none have made off-street parking for themselves. If it was feasible and allowed, I'd assume everyone would do it day one? Could be completely wrong though.

Claw Hammer

bubblypop wrote: »

I presume you could put a drive in at the front though?

Not if it is a protected structure, you can't.

MacronvFrugals

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Not if it is a protected structure, you can't.

Hire Plunkett Homes Ltd and you'll be grand!

Council Both Refused and Gave Permission for Francis Street Building to Be Torn Down

While one arm of the council refused planning permission for the owner of 92/93 Francis Street to demolish it, another arm ordered the owner to do “minimal taking down/making-safe works”.

But one thing led to another, and by Tuesday morning what once was a derelict four-storey building had become nothing but a bit of ground-floor facade and a pile of dusty bricks.

https://dublininquirer.com/2021/03/31/council-both-refused-and-gave-permission-for-francis-street-building-to-be-torn-down

JimmyVik

bubblypop wrote: »

I don't really like that, particularly the extension in the back.
I presume you could put a drive in at the front though?

I dont think you could.

Claw Hammer

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Hire Plunkett Homes Ltd and you'll be grand!

Council Both Refused and Gave Permission for Francis Street Building to Be Torn Down

https://dublininquirer.com/2021/03/31/council-both-refused-and-gave-permission-for-francis-street-building-to-be-torn-down

That was in Dublin. this house is in Dun Laoghaire.

Reins

Villa05 wrote: »

I'd understand why the mods might close it but we do need a blogger like namawinelake again. Investigative journalism is dead unfortunately. Highly questionable practices going on with no one held accountable

https://twitter.com/nwl88444048

Am sure this is him/her

Cal4567

I haven’t posted here for some time. On the social housing side there is good news. Numbers in need of housing are down to around 60-70k from a peak of around 100,000. The cost though in getting to this point has been enormous. Some of us are just beginning to understand this now.

Yes, posters are right. Government have been kneejerked and panicked into this by public outrage/media comments/the opposition. We were much worse off than other countries due to not having a social housing programme from the time of the financial crash and we’ve been playing catch up ever since. We’ve had population increases as well to boot, year on year up until Covid. Like everywhere else, and why should Ireland be any different, the well documented reasons around affordability has pushed home ownership away from many. Put all these points together, as they’ve all surfaced at the same time.

Believe me as I have skin in the game, although not directly. The FG policy of Rebuilding Ireland, 2016, was a calling card to every two bit financial property chancer and ‘entrepreneur’, referred to by another poster as akin to investing in a government bond. The social housing leasing model, in existence post crash, was dusted down and given a new lease of life. i.e. made more attractive to the investor.

The initial leasing model was I believe introduced around a decade back to meet two ends. Many of Ireland’s property owning class (due entirely to gorging off the fat that was the Celtic Tiger) suddenly found themselves, after the Crash, with 2,3 or even more properties lying empty and unable to meet mortgage payments. The State had also stopped building any new social housing. A bright spark in the Dept. of Finance, Housing, whatever (who knows, they may have been themselves as much indebted) put these two issues together. In no time at all, sometimes the various offices of State can move surprisingly quickly when it needs to, mostly small time landlords had a safety net and thus leasing of social housing was spawned. It has now morphed into this large scale option following FG’s cry to the private enterprise world to help get it out of its crisis.

That’s enough for one message. I will come back tomorrow on what has gone on since 2016. It’s basically more kneejerking and panicking.