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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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theboringfox

Low interest rates continue to be biggest driver of house price growth. A rate increase if it happens will be all that I can see driving prices into reverse. Even since 2016 when I bought my mortgage repayment has come down significantly than it was at outset. More supply coming to market will help balance things but this is all about low interest rates. And it is not just property or an Irish thing. Look at the stock markets. Low interest rates and massive money printing is driving up asset prices. Hopefully levels off soon.

standardg60

Ush1 wrote: »

Even when they don't ask.

Once worked for a client on Ailesbury Road.
They told me to put the invoice through the letterbox (even though they were in).
Needless to say it was the first and last time.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

I'm saying, I don't expect ever prices to be lower than 2020. For now it's because of demand/supplies, for long term is because of the inflation effect. But there obviously will be ups and downs.
Anytime soon I mean, mainly for at least the rest of the 2021.

Are you expecting councils and housing charities to continue their current buying levels in the market indefinitely? If so I guess the price inflation theory over time stacks up.

I am just not sure it is likely to continue forever, and what happens when they wind it down? Between the various sources there are currently 25k new social housing units provided a year. If they keep going at this rate at some stage they won't need to build/buy/lease any more.

The over 65s have approx half a million units of housing stock. If the councils and charities have pulled back from the market before these are washed through, I think basic maths suggests they will be difficult to sell at current prices.

Cyrus

Ush1 wrote: »

Proximity to town and the sea. Foxrock is the bigger anomaly to me.

In fairness foxrocks star is dimming all it has going for it now is some old period piles on big sites and living close to other well off people.

The desirable areas are d4/6 and anywhere along the coast.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

In fairness foxrocks star is dimming all it has going for it now is some old period piles on big sites and living close to other well off people.

The desirable areas are d4/6 and anywhere along the coast.

I think it dimmed years ago. Seems like it was hugely popular with certain type of aspirational middle class in the 1970s, they're all in their 80s now. Never seen the attraction of the place.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

I think it dimmed years ago. Seems like it was hugely popular with certain type of aspirational middle class in the 1970s, they're all in their 80s now. Never seen the attraction of the place.

I agree. There are some very nice big old houses on Westminster, Brighton and Torquay roads but that’s it. Nice gaffs but little in the way of amenities in the area

Yurt2

schmittel wrote: »

So, ownership rates of 25-39 yr olds have fallen to 12% presumably because they cannot afford current prices.

This is a shocking stat, and I actually didn't think it was so low. Alarm bells should be ringing with everybody from policymakers to Joe and Mary PAYE - this is a demographic problem that won't go away without serious intervention.

Our housing provision model (not that much thought goes into it) is broken and the next couple of decades are going to be very painful. I don't think it's good enough to say 'not my problem' or #learntocode anymore.

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

Are you expecting councils and housing charities to continue their current buying levels in the market indefinitely? If so I guess the price inflation theory over time stacks up.

I am just not sure it is likely to continue forever, and what happens when they wind it down? Between the various sources there are currently 25k new social housing units provided a year. If they keep going at this rate at some stage they won't need to build/buy/lease any more.

The over 65s have approx half a million units of housing stock. If the councils and charities have pulled back from the market before these are washed through, I think basic maths suggests they will be difficult to sell at current prices.

No, I don't expect anything about council housing for longer term.

mcsean2163

Yurt! wrote: »

This is a shocking stat, and I actually didn't think it was so low. Alarm bells should be ringing with everybody from policymakers to Joe and Mary PAYE - this is a demographic problem that won't go away without serious intervention.

Our housing provision model (not that much thought goes into it) is broken and the next couple of decades are going to be very painful. I don't think it's good enough to say 'not my problem' or #learntocode anymore.

We have the lowest percentage of our population over 65 in the EU and a huge non national population in 25-39 bracket.

https://www.irishcentral.com/news/early-irish-census-results-show-country-is-less-irish

17% not born in Ireland and that is an enormous increase in 20 years. I assume it's harder for a deliveroo driver to get a mortgage.

Yes we should be enabling a route to home ownership for all but assume many new arrivals are happy to rent/ party so may not be quite the crisis it appears to be?

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

No, I don't expect anything about council housing for longer term.

I get it. You try not to get into thinking about politics when analysing property market fundamentals. Fair enough, but in this case not a lot of point in asking what you think, as it is fairly meaningless without factoring in government/council demand.

PommieBast

combat14 wrote: »

thats if businesses open up - alot of zombie companies will close too

I've noticed quite a few central Dublin retail units recently vacated, although so far they seem to mostly be companies going online-only.

[Deleted User]

mcsean2163 wrote: »

We have the lowest percentage of our population over 65 in the EU and a huge non national population in 25-39 bracket.

https://www.irishcentral.com/news/early-irish-census-results-show-country-is-less-irish

17% not born in Ireland and that is an enormous increase in 20 years. I assume it's harder for a deliveroo driver to get a mortgage.

Yes we should be enabling a route to home ownership for all but assume many new arrivals are happy to rent/ party so may not be quite the crisis it appears to be?

This again.
Foreign born does not equal foreign.
Many Irish people are not born here.
Assuming that all immigrants are deliveroo drivers is a bit bad isn't it?

[Deleted User]

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Yes we should be enabling a route to home ownership for all but assume many new arrivals are happy to rent/ party so may not be quite the crisis it appears to be?

:eek::eek::eek::eek:

MY GOD WE'VE SOLVED THE HOUSING CRISIS. THERE NEVER WAS ONE TO BEGIN WITH!

Pelezico

Deleted User wrote: »

:eek::eek::eek::eek:

MY GOD WE'VE SOLVED THE HOUSING CRISIS. THERE NEVER WAS ONE TO BEGIN WITH!

PropQueries has been saying for ages that there is no crisis.....just all hype.

Even the word...crisis....so emotive.

[Deleted User]

bubblypop wrote: »

This again.
Foreign born does not equal foreign.
Many Irish people are not born here.
Assuming that all immigrants are deliveroo drivers is a bit bad isn't it?

It is fair to point out the transient nature of many of our young residents though. Probably 50% of those in my Dublin office (a large global MNC) are from overseas and will be here for only 3 or 4 years.

That’s not to say the numbers aren’t bad, and we don’t have a major problem, but they are likely a little overstated

Villa05

standardg60 wrote:

It will last as long as cheap credit is available to the Government, exactly like it was to the banks prior to the last crash. Once that credit line is tightened it will lead to a reset, most likely under a left led coalition.

I remember back in 2011 when we were extremely grateful as a nation to be only paying circa 5% on the bailout money loaned to us by the UK. The EU were charging considerably more ironically as the bailout mostly benifited their banks

mcsean2163

bubblypop wrote: »

This again.
Foreign born does not equal foreign.
Many Irish people are not born here.
Assuming that all immigrants are deliveroo drivers is a bit bad isn't it?

I'm certainly not assuming any such thing. I've worked with brilliant non Irish. I'm trying to say that similar to myself when I worked oversea a lot of the immigrant population which is in the 25-39 age bracket may not be interested in a mortgage. This may change as they get older especially if they have kids and maybe forget plans to save and move home etc but I do think that cohort are less like to focus on buying a home. I could be wrong and basing stupid assumptions on my experience abroad and the Irish I worked with abroad, so apologies if I hit the wrong note.

Anyway, back to houses.

Ush1

Just on the work from home thing, emails have gone out in my place, a large US multinational that employees will be phased back to sites by September.

Cyrus

serious 3 star hotel lobby vibes from the sitting room here, size for the sake of it

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/pine-lodge-carrickbrack-road-howth-co-dublin/4311230

RichardAnd

Ush1 wrote: »

Just on the work from home thing, emails have gone out in my place, a large US multinational that employees will be phased back to sites by September.

This is the same where I work, though in my case it's an Irish company. They have September 1st down as the return to the office, and there has been no word on WFH post-lockdown.

One thing that has been mentioned by the head of the IT department where I work, and this is a concern that I share, is that if the entire department went WFH full-time, then it sets a precedent. If it's possible for an entire IT department to work remotely, then why not contract it out to India for a considerable saving. Now, this isn't as easy as it sounds, but I have seen this happen before.

timmyntc

RichardAnd wrote: »

This is the same where I work, though in my case it's an Irish company. They have September 1st down as the return to the office, and there has been no word on WFH post-lockdown.

One thing that has been mentioned by the head of the IT department where I work, and this is a concern that I share, is that if the entire department went WFH full-time, then it sets a precedent. If it's possible for an entire IT department to work remotely, then why not contract it out to India for a considerable saving. Now, this isn't as easy as it sounds, but I have seen this happen before.

Outsourcing was all the rage before too - it didnt last.
Quality of work tends to drop massively in those cases - also for tax reasons employees need to be resident in the state if remote working.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

serious 3 star hotel lobby vibes from the sitting room here, size for the sake of it

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/pine-lodge-carrickbrack-road-howth-co-dublin/4311230

that's revolting.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

that's revolting.

couldnt have put it better myself

woejus

Cyrus wrote: »

serious 3 star hotel lobby vibes from the sitting room here, size for the sake of it

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/pine-lodge-carrickbrack-road-howth-co-dublin/4311230

Christ above! Swimming pool! Helipad! High Knuttel count!

A million down from the 2015 asking price. Seems PropQueries was right, the market is collapsing.

Marcusm

Cyrus wrote: »

serious 3 star hotel lobby vibes from the sitting room here, size for the sake of it

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/pine-lodge-carrickbrack-road-howth-co-dublin/4311230

Even worse, like a care home. THe front aspect is also quite institutional and not in a good way.

timmyntc

Blue carpets, that wallpaper, the sofa at the top of the stairs

Is this really how millionaires live??

awec

Cyrus wrote: »

serious 3 star hotel lobby vibes from the sitting room here, size for the sake of it

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/pine-lodge-carrickbrack-road-howth-co-dublin/4311230

Some people have no taste.

It also has an appalling kitchen layout. What a waste of a nice space.

RichardAnd

timmyntc wrote: »

Outsourcing was all the rage before too - it didnt last.
Quality of work tends to drop massively in those cases - also for tax reasons employees need to be resident in the state if remote working.

Very much so, but there's no reason to believe that it couldn't happen again. The company that I used to work for now has 50% of its IT department contracted to India. The recently let 6 staff go.

On the legal side of things, yes, one must be resident in a state to work there. However, could that change? We don't know what could happen, but I personally would feel a little safer in the office where I'm seen to be working. That's just my two cents, of course.

woejus

timmyntc wrote: »

Blue carpets, that wallpaper, the sofa at the top of the stairs

Is this really how millionaires live??

If you don't have any taste of your own, the decorators will give you the style that prevailed about 10 years previously to be on the safe side. See it all the time in big houses where people DGAF about what they look like.

Balluba

I drove through Ballyboughal Co Dublin yesterday. Lovely countryside and I came across no supermarket or industrial premises. Afterwards I checked property prices there on Daft and asking prices are remarkably high. I guess the golf courses and equestrian centre are bolstering prices??? Or are there other hidden gems there?