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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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Graham

Deleted User wrote: »

The main engine forces for Ireland is
Cheap labor
Direct Foreign Investment
Low taxation for corporations
This is the 3 elephants which keep economy of Ireland moving forward
Nobody care were you will live nobody care how much you will earn and nobody care were you will get job
This country does not have any resources and without this 3 elephants this country will be ordinary green island
Lets start think from there.

Or start from

Educated workforce
EU based
English speaking

YMMV

[Deleted User]

Cheap labor move many Ireland industries forward
Building industry
Renting market
Overseas Investment
If Ireland will lose cheap labor Ireland will die
There is too much BUT and supply and demand is nothing against it.
The cheap Eastern European labor force brought Ireland up and now this force leaving.

Graham

Deleted User wrote: »

Cheap labor move many Ireland industries forward
Building industry

I assume you're kidding.

[Deleted User]

Graham wrote: »

I assume you're kidding.

I was working in building industry and I know the live and nationalities of those who build irish houses and who pay rent .
The guys from Brazil working for 11.50 per hour making timber frame houses.
The problem if they will leave there will be no people to make them and pay rents.

[Deleted User]

If Ireland hospitality sector will not move forward tens of thousands low paid workers from foreign countries will move home
High rent and small wages
This will be serious hit to irish renting market.
By last Central bank report about 100K workers will lose jobs permanently.
Country are at 25 per cent unemployment already.
In 2009 we had 16.

hometruths

Underground wrote: »

The Burke Kennedy article in the IT today is worth a read, outlines the abject failure that Rebuilding Ireland has been. Home ownership rates for 25-39 yr old now c. 12% (was c. 21% 10 years ago). Where do we go from here? A lifetime of renting from institutional landlords until we reach retirement and then pray our 25% lump sum from our pension can buy us a sh*tty 1 bed in Tallaght.

So, ownership rates of 25-39 yr olds have fallen to 12% presumably because they cannot afford current prices.

Same article points out that, unsurprisingly, the older generation have much higher ownership rates:

Home ownership has collapsed among adults of a prime working age – a reflection of surging house prices and a lost decade of wage growth since the financial crisis. Owning a property has become increasingly concentrated among older age groups. In 2016, 85 per cent of 65-year-olds owned their own homes, while just 14 per cent rented.

This reflects one of the points that I’ve been banging on about for ages - house prices are facing a demographic time bomb.

For those posters who think house prices can only go higher from here, eg Marius - if ownership rates amongst the 25-39 year olds have collapsed, and presumably will stay low as long as prices are at current levels or higher, who exactly is going to buy the stock off the 65+ years old sellers at current prices or higher, when the time comes?

Hubertj

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/terraced-house-36-pembroke-gardens-ballsbridge-dublin-4/2552255

I posted this a few months ago when it went for sale as it is close to my home. Thought it was mad money. Sold for over asking

https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/PPR-By-Date&Start=1&Query=%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3E=01/01/2021%20AND%20%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3C01/01/2022%20AND%20%5Baddress%5D=*Pembroke%20Gardens*%20AND%20%5Bdc_county%5D=Dublin&County=Dublin&Year=2021&StartMonth=&EndMonth=&Address=Pembroke%20Gardens

I know ballsbridge is a desireable area and having someone like me as a neighbour adds to the price but that’s mad stuff altogether. Although better value than a €1m 2 bed apartment 300 metres down the road.

Stark

Never really got why Ballsbridge commanded the high property prices that it did. It's nice enough but generally lifeless I've found from my days working there. I guess it's just rich people wanting to live next to rich people.

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

For those posters who think house prices can only go higher from here, eg Marius

Stop accusing me of things I haven't said. It's not a first time.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

Stop accusing me of things I haven't said. It's not a first time.

Apologies, I'll rephrase it.

For those posters who think house prices will never be lower than 2020, eg Marius - if ownership rates amongst the 25-39 year olds have collapsed, and presumably will stay low as long as prices are at current levels or higher, who exactly is going to buy the stock off the 65+ years old sellers at current prices or higher, when the time comes?

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

Apologies, I'll rephrase it.

For those posters who think house prices will never be lower than 2020, eg Marius - if ownership rates amongst the 25-39 year olds have collapsed, and presumably will stay low as long as prices are at current levels or higher, who exactly is going to buy the stock off the 65+ years old sellers at current prices or higher, when the time comes?

Better. Now I can answer.
There is lots of pent up demands, and lots of savings build up, on other side I don't have much of expectation of massive supplies hitting the market anytime soon. Thus individuals, council housing, and other players will have no problem to absorb supplies from older population anytime soon.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Apologies, I'll rephrase it.

For those posters who think house prices will never be lower than 2020, eg Marius - if ownership rates amongst the 25-39 year olds have collapsed, and presumably will stay low as long as prices are at current levels or higher, who exactly is going to buy the stock off the 65+ years old sellers at current prices or higher, when the time comes?

Depends on the future levels of new supply at various price points . Someone is and has been buying them for the past 5 or 6 years .

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

Better. Now I can answer.
There is lots of pent up demands, and lots of savings build up, on other side I don't have much of expectation of massive supplies hitting the market anytime soon. Thus individuals, council housing, and other players will have no problem to absorb supplies from older population anytime soon.

Are you saying prices will never be lower than 2020, or just not be lower than 2020 anytime soon?

It's half a million houses, give or take. What is your idea of anytime soon?

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

Depends on the future levels of new supply at various price points . Someone is and has been buying them for the past 5 or 6 years .

Presumably the 39-64 year old demographic have been buying them, trading up.

But if the ownership rates are collapsing in the 25-39 cohort, that will have a knock on effect in time.

Pussyhands

Underground wrote: »

The Burke Kennedy article in the IT today is worth a read, outlines the abject failure that Rebuilding Ireland has been. Home ownership rates for 25-39 yr old now c. 12% (was c. 21% 10 years ago). Where do we go from here? A lifetime of renting from institutional landlords until we reach retirement and then pray our 25% lump sum from our pension can buy us a sh*tty 1 bed in Tallaght?

Without going too off topic, all roads lead to a SF government at next election imo. Housing is the issue and FG have been in Government for 10 years now. To preside over home ownership statistics like the above must spell the end for them. Any initiative introduced has been designed to prop up the price of housing (HTB, and don't get me started on FF's shared equity scheme). I hate SF but at this point, how much worse could they be?

Apologies if the tone is a bit OTT but it's hard not to get depressed by this sometimes.

I'm single, 30 and I have a big deposit (50k) and I'm not sure I'll be able buy a 2 bed apartment in the area I'm looking.

The ones I'm seeing advertised just inside my budget are completely tiny and are not very nice at all.

It's very depressing.

Ush1

Stark wrote: »

Never really got why Ballsbridge commanded the high property prices that it did. It's nice enough but generally lifeless I've found from my days working there. I guess it's just rich people wanting to live next to rich people.

Proximity to town and the sea. Foxrock is the bigger anomaly to me.

TheSheriff

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/terraced-house-36-pembroke-gardens-ballsbridge-dublin-4/2552255

I posted this a few months ago when it went for sale as it is close to my home. Thought it was mad money. Sold for over asking

https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/PPR-By-Date&Start=1&Query=%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3E=01/01/2021%20AND%20%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3C01/01/2022%20AND%20%5Baddress%5D=*Pembroke%20Gardens*%20AND%20%5Bdc_county%5D=Dublin&County=Dublin&Year=2021&StartMonth=&EndMonth=&Address=Pembroke%20Gardens

I know ballsbridge is a desireable area and having someone like me as a neighbour adds to the price but that’s mad stuff altogether. Although better value than a €1m 2 bed apartment 300 metres down the road.

Quite the price for a 2-bed terraced. And a 5% top up on the asking price to boot!

This one (unlike the cabra house posted recently) I can't reconcile with, it just seems like massive money for what you get.

[Deleted User]

schmittel wrote: »

So, ownership rates of 25-39 yr olds have fallen to 12% presumably because they cannot afford current prices.

Same article points out that, unsurprisingly, the older generation have much higher ownership rates:

This reflects one of the points that I’ve been banging on about for ages - house prices are facing a demographic time bomb.

For those posters who think house prices can only go higher from here, eg Marius - if ownership rates amongst the 25-39 year olds have collapsed, and presumably will stay low as long as prices are at current levels or higher, who exactly is going to buy the stock off the 65+ years old sellers at current prices or higher, when the time comes?

Gets given to the kids?

hometruths

Deleted User wrote: »

Gets given to the kids?

Sure that will happen with a bunch of them, maybe most. Great for only children.

But for families of 2 , 3 or more kids chances are high that they'll need to get market value for it. Either to buy out 1 sibling fairly or for all of them to get cash out to buy a house each.

Point being its not a batch of 500k houses that will never effect the market because they'll be inherited.

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

Are you saying prices will never be lower than 2020, or just not be lower than 2020 anytime soon?

It's half a million houses, give or take. What is your idea of anytime soon?

I'm saying, I don't expect ever prices to be lower than 2020. For now it's because of demand/supplies, for long term is because of the inflation effect. But there obviously will be ups and downs.
Anytime soon I mean, mainly for at least the rest of the 2021.

awec

I’d say most inherited houses end up sold, particularly ones in urban areas.

Sorolla

20 years ago my mother transferred a house to my name.

I live abroad and am now selling the house.

It was never my principle residence.

Could someone advice me on the CGT liability

Hubertj

Ush1 wrote: »

Proximity to town and the sea. Foxrock is the bigger anomaly to me.

You get to tell people you live in D4 (specifically Ballsbridge) as well. Main reason I bought here.

Villa05

Marius34 wrote:

Better. Now I can answer. There is lots of pent up demands, and lots of savings build up, on other side I don't have much of expectation of massive supplies hitting the market anytime soon. Thus individuals, council housing, and other players will have no problem to absorb supplies from older population anytime soon.

I really can't see the current methods of procuring social housing being sustainable. Can you?

treenytru

Sorolla wrote: »

20 years ago my mother transferred a house to my name.

I live abroad and am now selling the house.

It was never my principle residence.

Could someone advice me on the CGT liability

Quick guide on how to calculate CGT here.

https://www.revenue.ie/en/gains-gifts-and-inheritance/transfering-an-asset/how-to-calculate-cgt.aspx

Use the table to calculate the market value of the house (given indexation) on the date your mother passed it onto you . https://www.revenue.ie/en/gains-gifts-and-inheritance/documents/cgtmult.pdf

Deduct the allowable expenses and your yearly exemption (1270euro) and multiply the result by 33%. That's your CGT.

If you have further questions about your specific circumstances, might be best to ask in the accountancy forum

Pelezico

Sorolla wrote: »

20 years ago my mother transferred a house to my name.

I live abroad and am now selling the house.

It was never my principle residence.

Could someone advice me on the CGT liability

You are liable for CGT on difference between valuation at time of acquisition and sale price.

I wonder if you are also liable for CAT....there may be a liability based on allowance at time of acquisition vs acquisition valuation.

Not sure about indexation relief.

standardg60

Villa05 wrote: »

I really can't see the current methods of procuring social housing being sustainable. Can you?

It will last as long as cheap credit is available to the Government, exactly like it was to the banks prior to the last crash.
Once that credit line is tightened it will lead to a reset, most likely under a left led coalition.

Marius34

Villa05 wrote: »

I really can't see the current methods of procuring social housing being sustainable. Can you?

Don't know, social housing strategy might change in longer term, I'm trying not to get to much in politics, when analyzing Property Market.

standardg60

Marius34 wrote: »

Don't know, social housing strategy might change in longer term, I'm trying not to get to much in politics, when analyzing Property Market.

Any chance you could persuade politicians to do the same?

Ush1

Hubertj wrote: »

You get to tell people you live in D4 (specifically Ballsbridge) as well. Main reason I bought here.

Even when they don't ask.