2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

schmittel wrote: »

No chance!

We need a common sense party who says forget left/right ideology, climate change, United Ireland and all the other headline grabbers for now, we urgently need a root and branch reform of the culture and the way things are done in the public sector etc etc. After we have done that we can worry about the above.

But they wouldn't get any votes, so it is a bit pointless!

Wasn’t that the PD’s modus operandi? If Harney had been allowed to run the health service without interference, we wouldn’t have what is about to be the worst crisis to hit Ireland’s health care system since the beginning of the state from next year IMO

That’s where I get my theory that the housing budget must be cut. Even without our pre-covid debt problems, post-covid even bigger debt problems, pre-covid health care costs, post-covid bigger welfare burden (permanent unemployment will be higher), Biden’s proposed tax reforms potentially reducing forecasted tax revenues, our pension crisis etc. etc., the post-covid health care costs are going to balloon given the appointment/operations cancellations and the state is going to need to cut costs no matter what.

The housing budget is really the only one I can see where cuts can be made given that the welfare and healthcare budgets can only permanently increase due to the covid crisis IMO

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

Wasn’t that the PD’s modus operandi? If Harney had been allowed to run the health service without interference, we wouldn’t have what is about to be the worst crisis to hit Ireland’s health care system since the beginning of the state from next year IMO

That’s where I get my theory that the housing budget must be cut. Even without our pre-covid debt problems, post-covid even bigger debt problems, pre-covid health care costs, post-covid bigger welfare burden (permanent unemployment will be higher), Biden’s proposed tax reforms potentially reducing forecasted tax revenues, our pension crisis etc. etc., the post-covid health care costs are going to balloon given the appointment/operations cancellations and the state is going to need to cut costs no matter what.

The housing budget is really the only one I can see where cuts can be made given that the welfare and healthcare budgets can only permanently increase due to the covid crisis IMO

Were you around for the last election? Housing will not be cut....

standardg60

TheSheriff wrote: »

Were you around for the last election? Housing will not be cut....

And there in a nutshell lies the problem

TheSheriff wrote: »

Were you around for the last election? Housing will not be cut....

The same solution can be achieved at zero cost to the state while also drastically cutting the housing budget. It’s called a proper vacant property tax and given that Paschal recently acted to the shoe tax analogy on RTÉ in the exact same way as Cowen did to his painting in the gallery (and got the same type of apology), Paschal is obviously under the exact same extreme extreme pressure Cowen was at that time IMO

There’s only one way to increase supply without costing the state money it doesn’t have anymore. And that’s...

standardg60

PropQueries wrote: »

Wasn’t that the PD’s modus operandi? If Harney had been allowed to run the health service without interference, we wouldn’t have what is about to be the worst crisis to hit Ireland’s health care system since the beginning of the state from next year IMO

That’s where I get my theory that the housing budget must be cut. Even without our pre-covid debt problems, post-covid even bigger debt problems, pre-covid health care costs, post-covid bigger welfare burden (permanent unemployment will be higher), Biden’s proposed tax reforms potentially reducing forecasted tax revenues, our pension crisis etc. etc., the post-covid health care costs are going to balloon given the appointment/operations cancellations and the state is going to need to cut costs no matter what.

The housing budget is really the only one I can see where cuts can be made given that the welfare and healthcare budgets can only permanently increase due to the covid crisis IMO

Wasn't it the PD's who established the financial regulator?
They were no different to anyone else

Any ideas when the state will slow down its house buying policy?

L1011 wrote: »

You didn't answer my question.

Did you or did you not read the full article?

This is a very important question for you to answer, as you have been infracted previously for misrepresenting the contents of an article.

He may not have read the article but his point is valid.

Social housing data, released by the Department of Housing in response to a parliamentary question asked by Eoin Ó Broin, the Sinn Féin housing spokesman, showed 77 per cent of the 5,073 units delivered in 2020 were sourced from private developers.

20,676 new dwellings were built last year. That includes 4937 one offs with no social requirement.

https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/construction/newdwellingcompletions/

15, 759 with social. 10% (1,575) allotted to state leaving approximately 3,500 from the magic fairy tree ðŸŒ²ðŸ§šðŸ§š*♀️ðŸ§š*♂️

Mad_maxx

enricoh wrote: »

No chance, 1 in 3 workers work in the public sector when you include semi states and the 200k in the charity industry. It's a big voting block.

A lad I know was a skip driver around 10 years ago. He was collecting a big roll off skip from the local hospital and copped it was full of brand new beds still in the box. He went inside to tell them someone mucked up n eventually got talking to someone in the know. He was told they have a budget to spend and if they don't spend it next year it'd be cut! His boss flogged them to a nursing home. Around the same time people were protesting over cuts to hospital services and demanding more funding!

Plus RTE are extremely pro public sector, that kind of PR is hard to take on

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Any ideas when the state will slow down its house buying policy?

Well, next years budget is most likely being discussed now and any further lease, HAP agreements etc. signed between now and the end of the year will need to be also paid next year, so my bet is on mid-summer to start cutting back on all three i.e. buying, leasing, renting.

For example, John Moran of the LDA called for a mini-budget last week. John Moran’s opinion is actually respected in high up government circles.

And, Eoin Burke-Kennedy in the Irish Times said yesterday that: “And finally on vacant homes – seen by many as the low-hanging fruit in the equation – the Government gave it itself a modest target of retrieving 6,500 units via three schemes. So far it has delivered fewer than 1,400.”.

So, this low-hanging fruit must be very much on Paschal’s radar given all the additional post-covid costs e.g. welfare, health etc. that must be paid for over the next 5 years IMO

Link to John Moran article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/land-development-agency-chair-calls-for-mini-budget-to-protect-economy-1.4519913

Link to Eoin Burke-Kennedy article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/the-plan-to-tackle-ireland-s-housing-crisis-has-failed-1.4528364

Baby01032012

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Any ideas when the state will slow down its house buying policy?

Ah hem when it starts it’s building social housing policy which is never.

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, next years budget is most likely being discussed now and any further lease, HAP agreements etc. signed between now and the end of the year will need to be also paid next year, so my bet is on mid-summer to start cutting back on all three i.e. buying, leasing, renting.

For example, John Moran of the LDA called for a mini-budget last week. John Moran’s opinion is actually respected in high up government circles.

And, Eoin Burke-Kennedy in the Irish Times said yesterday that: “And finally on vacant homes – seen by many as the low-hanging fruit in the equation – the Government gave it itself a modest target of retrieving 6,500 units via three schemes. So far it has delivered fewer than 1,400.”.

So, this low-hanging fruit must be very much on Paschal’s radar given all the additional post-covid costs e.g. welfare, health etc. that must be paid for over the next 5 years IMO

Link to John Moran article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/land-development-agency-chair-calls-for-mini-budget-to-protect-economy-1.4519913

Link to Eoin Burke-Kennedy article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/the-plan-to-tackle-ireland-s-housing-crisis-has-failed-1.4528364

John moran

The cost of borrowing now was very low, there was no point in not borrowing when it was needed, he said.

mcsean2163 wrote: »

John moran

The cost of borrowing now was very low, there was no point in not borrowing when it was needed, he said.

He has a good point if it reflected reality.

Unfortunately, Paschal knows the truth which was reported on Bloomberg a few weeks ago in an article:

“The ECB's Claims of Unity Are Woefully Misleading. There’s growing pressure to scale back the central bank's bond purchases. So European yields are likely to rise, sooner and faster than the ECB wants.“

In essence, Paschal knows that the “free” ECB money will stop sooner rather than later and that interest rates are most likely going to rise a lot sooner than many people believe and it explains his reaction to the FG shoe analogy on RTÉ last week. He’s stressed and like all finance ministers, he must keep up the pretence that all is ok until he no longer can.

As finance minister, he must be looking for cuts. Welfare can’t be cut. Health can’t be cut. The post 2011 public servants are getting more and more vocal on the pay difference between them and their pre 2011 work colleagues. There’s only one place to cut while also increasing supply at no cost to the state i.e. very strong sticks to get any vacant property back into use without costing the state money it really doesn’t have anymore IMO.

Link to Bloomberg article here: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-31/the-ecb-s-claims-of-unity-on-bond-buying-are-woefully-misleading?srnd=opinion

Underground

The Burke Kennedy article in the IT today is worth a read, outlines the abject failure that Rebuilding Ireland has been. Home ownership rates for 25-39 yr old now c. 12% (was c. 21% 10 years ago). Where do we go from here? A lifetime of renting from institutional landlords until we reach retirement and then pray our 25% lump sum from our pension can buy us a sh*tty 1 bed in Tallaght?

Without going too off topic, all roads lead to a SF government at next election imo. Housing is the issue and FG have been in Government for 10 years now. To preside over home ownership statistics like the above must spell the end for them. Any initiative introduced has been designed to prop up the price of housing (HTB, and don't get me started on FF's shared equity scheme). I hate SF but at this point, how much worse could they be?

Apologies if the tone is a bit OTT but it's hard not to get depressed by this sometimes.

Hubertj

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/thalassa-gleninagh-quay-ballyvaughan-clare/4492455

This is a strange setup. Amazing setting but I think the layout of the gaff would drive me mad.

bilbot79

Underground wrote: »

The Burke Kennedy article in the IT today is worth a read, outlines the abject failure that Rebuilding Ireland has been. Home ownership rates for 25-39 yr old now c. 12% (was c. 21% 10 years ago). Where do we go from here? A lifetime of renting from institutional landlords until we reach retirement and then pray our 25% lump sum from our pension can buy us a sh*tty 1 bed in Tallaght?

Without going too off topic, all roads lead to a SF government at next election imo. Housing is the issue and FG have been in Government for 10 years now. To preside over home ownership statistics like the above must spell the end for them. Any initiative introduced has been designed to prop up the price of housing (HTB, and don't get me started on FF's shared equity scheme). I hate SF but at this point, how much worse could they be?

Apologies if the tone is a bit OTT but it's hard not to get depressed by this sometimes.

Under Sinn Fein Housing would quickly cease to be 'the' issue and Irish Unity would be everything

Underground wrote: »

The Burke Kennedy article in the IT today is worth a read, outlines the abject failure that Rebuilding Ireland has been. Home ownership rates for 25-39 yr old now c. 12% (was c. 21% 10 years ago). Where do we go from here? A lifetime of renting from institutional landlords until we reach retirement and then pray our 25% lump sum from our pension can buy us a sh*tty 1 bed in Tallaght?

Without going too off topic, all roads lead to a SF government at next election imo. Housing is the issue and FG have been in Government for 10 years now. To preside over home ownership statistics like the above must spell the end for them. Any initiative introduced has been designed to prop up the price of housing (HTB, and don't get me started on FF's shared equity scheme). I hate SF but at this point, how much worse could they be?

Apologies if the tone is a bit OTT but it's hard not to get depressed by this sometimes.

I wonder has anybody studied the psychological impact on educated, working people in receipt of HAP?

Not sure if HAP must be signed off every year, but if so, I would imagine it’s a highly degrading exercise to complete if someone is educated, working and earning what most would consider a decent salary.

TheSheriff

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/thalassa-gleninagh-quay-ballyvaughan-clare/4492455

This is a strange setup. Amazing setting but I think the layout of the gaff would drive me mad.

All that wood panelling .....it's everywhere

zinfandel

PropQueries wrote: »

I wonder has anybody studied the psychological impact on educated, working people in receipt of HAP?

Not sure if HAP must be signed off every year, but if so, I would imagine it’s a highly degrading exercise to complete if someone is educated, working and earning what most would consider a decent salary.

or even worse those just outside the HAP threshold and paying half of their salary on rent and never able to build up a deposit for a home...

Underground wrote: »

The Burke Kennedy article in the IT today is worth a read, outlines the abject failure that Rebuilding Ireland has been. Home ownership rates for 25-39 yr old now c. 12% (was c. 21% 10 years ago). Where do we go from here? A lifetime of renting from institutional landlords until we reach retirement and then pray our 25% lump sum from our pension can buy us a sh*tty 1 bed in Tallaght?

Without going too off topic, all roads lead to a SF government at next election imo. Housing is the issue and FG have been in Government for 10 years now. To preside over home ownership statistics like the above must spell the end for them. Any initiative introduced has been designed to prop up the price of housing (HTB, and don't get me started on FF's shared equity scheme). I hate SF but at this point, how much worse could they be?

Apologies if the tone is a bit OTT but it's hard not to get depressed by this sometimes.

There’s no doubt there is a serious social problem being built up, when those who have no been able to purchase property retire. But there will be some mitigation through the fact that many of these people’s parents will own property, that will be passed down or sold. The issue is more where there is no property ownership in the whole family (which is obviously still an issue, but not as large a one)

Villa05

Deleted User wrote:

Thereâ€™s no doubt there is a serious social problem being built up, when those who have no been able to purchase property retire. But there will be some mitigation through the fact that many of these peopleâ€™s parents will own property, that will be passed down or sold. The issue is more where there is no property ownership in the whole family (which is obviously still an issue, but not as large a one)

Your post emphasises that as the nation is perceived to get wealthier its citizens become poorer through one reason only. Property

All by choice of course

zinfandel wrote: »

or even worse those just outside the HAP threshold and paying half of their salary on rent and never able to build up a deposit for a home...

It does bring to the front of the mind how much of that additional €500 million budgeted for HAP this year is responsible for keeping existing rents high.

As I said before, for example, that would be 25,000 additional homes at €20k rent per annum being supported by these additional HAP payments.

Would those 25,000 landlords have kept their properties empty or would they have reduced their rent if this additional state money wasn’t available?

Villa05 wrote: »

Your post emphasises that as the nation is perceived to get wealthier its citizens become poorer through one reason only. Property

All by choice of course

It’s not about wealth. It’s about security. Who wants to hit retirement age and have to pay rent, and have all that uncertainty. Not me, for sure.

That’s the societal issue we are facing into. Not one of wealth

Hubertj

TheSheriff wrote: »

All that wood panelling .....it's everywhere

Yep the decor isn’t for me either. It’s like it started off a small house and was added to and extended over time.

treenytru

Deleted User wrote: »

It’s not about wealth. It’s about security. Who wants to hit retirement age and have to pay rent, and have all that uncertainty. Not me, for sure.

That’s the societal issue we are facing into. Not one of wealth

I'm 32, if my mother lives to the same age as my grandmother that leaves me with 25 years of renting before I have the 'security' of her home or possibly a small inheritance to help me buy my own (after 22.5% of the property value is gone in the fair deal scheme, probate is paid for and sales proceeds split between siblings)

I can definitely understand where you are coming from, and I realise I'm lucky to even have my parent's property as a possible helping hand to securing my own place when I'm reaching retirement age.

However it does still leave my generation either not, or delaying having kids (and all the health problems that will put on the HSE) or raising those children in the uncertainty of the rental market.

Villa05

Deleted User wrote:

Thatâ€™s the societal issue we are facing into. Not one of wealth

It's a societal issue because housing has been made a luxury product/service by our systems

awec

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I think we’re confusing turnkeys and leasing with Part V requirements, Props is 100% right here the state is buying more than the 10% part V I know because my sister was outbid by DCC on a second hand house.

Last year alone 8000 houses were acquired through these lease deals

Killian Woods said today he had a developer saying these lease deals are “like a government bond”

It’s hilarious to suggest the state is not a big player especially in Dublin, as Dr Dáithí Downey from DCC said HAP will cost as much as building a new Children’s hospital annually within 4 years

That is not what PropQueries said. He said there was no demand outside of "the state".

Yes I am sure they buy more than 10%. I am also confident that the majority of properties bought are bought privately.

To post that there is no demand outside of "the state" means either Props didn't read the article, didn't understand it, or is deliberately posting misinformation in this thread.

Hubertj wrote: »

Yep the decor isn’t for me either. It’s like it started off a small house and was added to and extended over time.

Wood looks rotten at the base on the outside. A lot of money for a small house in the middle of nowhere.

Short overview from my side
We have huge youth unemployment for that reason we will get huge level of emigration what will affect renting/mortgage market
The banks give mortgages more easily to youngster than to people who over 35/40
Father and mother will have to step in with them savings but many of them was on Covid 350 PUP which been lower than them 500 average wage home
We can speak about supply and demand but main engine is the money in buyers pockets.
Many Eastern europeans coming back home they earned enough money to buy property at home the salaries in them countries rising many will get pension from government of Ireland at home.
Another Eastern Europe does not exist so this time Ireland will have get emigrants from outside EU.
Many brazilians coming from Brazil ( 220 millions population ) they will run renting market pay pensions to Eastern europenian and also will keep wages in Ireland low what will affect property prices too.
Supply and demand is nothing there is too many But at the moment

zinfandel wrote: »

or even worse those just outside the HAP threshold and paying half of their salary on rent and never able to build up a deposit for a home...

I used to work with an incredibly talented engineer in exactly that position. He was becoming hateful toward those getting rent support as all his wage was being eaten up by rent. Really nice guy in a really awkward position.