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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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optogirl

PropQueries wrote: »

My opinion would be that once the state pulls back on their house purchases by mid year (due to no money), the public will see there is no private sector demand for any of the new builds or executor sales entering the market.

How do I know this? Common sense. Google news stories over the past 3 years of queues of people looking to buy or rent and you will find very very very few. A couple of small estate agent rent-a-queue stories published but that’s it.

There’s no demand in my opinion and covid has done a very good job of covering up this lack of demand and once covid is over, it will be clear for all to see IMO

Lots and lots of “anecdotal” news stories of a shortage of housing but everyone who wants a home can already have a home of their own anywhere in the state (incl. South Dublin) and once the state is forced to pull back from their interference and potential sellers realise that if a private person doesn’t buy or rent their house, the state won’t buy or rent it either, it’s game over and prices and rents will plummet IMO

No demand? Ok.

Shelga

If demand for office space falls by 30-50%, can't some office space be re-zoned and converted into apartments? And therefore create tonnes of potential new residential space that previously hadn't been considered as available.

Or am I massively oversimplifying...?

Hubertj

Seeds wrote: »

How does everyone think the Country reopening will affect prices?

Will we see a lot more house come on the market?

Will we start to see financial repercussions from covid. From my point of view, I am better off financially now then this time last year.
I just cant help thinking that we will see some negative effects once the government stops the handouts.

I think supply will definitely improve as more people will put their property on the market to sell. However there looks like there will be a shortfall in new builds due to the restrictions which have been in place.
I can see prices increasing and decreasing in different parts of the country and in different segments.
You’ll get some really idiotic responses to your question. Do your own research and make your own decisions.

PropQueries

optogirl wrote: »

No demand? Ok.

Well, according to the SBP today, “Over 75% of new social homes are bought or leased from builders”.

Therefore, at the moment, the state is the demand. So once their demand stops, that leaves all the new builds, ex-AirBnB, vacant properties and executor sales entirely reliant on the private market.

So there’s only two questions. When will the state stop buying, leasing, renting and is there enough private demand to meet the excess supply once they do leave the market?

There’s only two areas the government can cut revenue without cutting public sector salaries. Welfare and housing. Welfare can’t be cut. That only leaves the housing budget IMO.

Link to SBP article here: https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/over-75-of-new-social-homes-are-bought-or-leased-from-builders-48281ee5

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, according to the SBP today, “Over 75% of new social homes are bought or leased from builders”.

Therefore, at the moment, the state is the demand. So once their demand stops, that leaves all the new builds, ex-AirBnB, vacant properties and executor sales entirely reliant on the private market.

So there’s only two questions. When will the state stop buying, leasing, renting and is there enough private demand to meet the excess supply once they do leave the market?

There’s only two areas the government can cut revenue without cutting public sector salaries. Welfare and housing. Welfare can’t be cut. That only leaves the housing budget IMO.

Link to SBP article here: https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/over-75-of-new-social-homes-are-bought-or-leased-from-builders-48281ee5

So no more social housing then ? You’d imagine the state aren’t doing this for the crack, where do the people who get these houses end up then?

Seeds

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, according to the SBP today, “Over 75% of new social homes are bought or leased from builders”.

Therefore, at the moment, the state is the demand. So once their demand stops, that leaves all the new builds, ex-AirBnB, vacant properties and executor sales entirely reliant on the private market.

So there’s only two questions. When will the state stop buying, leasing, renting and is there enough private demand to meet the excess supply once they do leave the market?

There’s only two areas the government can cut revenue without cutting public sector salaries. Welfare and housing. Welfare can’t be cut. That only leaves the housing budget IMO.

Link to SBP article here:

75 percent. This disgusts me. I need to quit my job and get on the dole. Why bother.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

So no more social housing then ? You’d imagine the state aren’t doing this for the crack, where do the people who get these houses end up then?

You’d be very surprised how imaginative the state will get when the choice is between their own pay and pensions being cut or letting property owners take the hit.

My bet is on massive increases in vacant property taxes and other “incentives” that won’t cost the state anything this year to make sure these properties re-enter the market ASAP IMO

How far away is that next election again?

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, according to the SBP today, “Over 75% of new social homes are bought or leased from builders”.

Therefore, at the moment, the state is the demand. So once their demand stops, that leaves all the new builds, ex-AirBnB, vacant properties and executor sales entirely reliant on the private market.

So there’s only two questions. When will the state stop buying, leasing, renting and is there enough private demand to meet the excess supply once they do leave the market?

There’s only two areas the government can cut revenue without cutting public sector salaries. Welfare and housing. Welfare can’t be cut. That only leaves the housing budget IMO.

Link to SBP article here: https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/over-75-of-new-social-homes-are-bought-or-leased-from-builders-48281ee5

Here's PropQueries spreading misinformation again. Either you are deliberately doing this at this stage or you do not understand what you are reading.

Social housing makes up ~10% of new private developments. ~90% of houses in new developments are bought on the private market by individuals. The article is pointing out that 75% of social housing is coming from the enforced 10% ring-fencing imposed on developers.

"No demand". Total bull****. There is no other way of putting it.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

My opinion would be that once the state pulls back on their house purchases by mid year (due to no money), the public will see there is no private sector demand for any of the new builds or executor sales entering the market.

How do I know this? Common sense. Google news stories over the past 3 years of queues of people looking to buy or rent and you will find very very very few. A couple of small estate agent rent-a-queue stories published but that’s it.

There’s no demand in my opinion and covid has done a very good job of covering up this lack of demand and once covid is over, it will be clear for all to see IMO

Lots and lots of “anecdotal” news stories of a shortage of housing but everyone who wants a home can already have a home of their own anywhere in the state (incl. South Dublin) and once the state is forced to pull back from their interference and potential sellers realise that if a private person doesn’t buy or rent their house, the state won’t buy or rent it either, it’s game over and prices and rents will plummet IMO

Why on earth would there be news stories for queues to buy houses?

When did you last buy a house? Have you been involved in buying a new one the past few years? If you go back on this forum you will find countless examples of people having to queue to buy. It was absolutely a thing (the norm in popular areas) until very recently (just before covid).

awec

Seeds wrote: »

75 percent. This disgusts me. I need to quit my job and get on the dole. Why bother.

Judging by your other thread you are a single person so you can do this and you might get a social house in about 15 years.

Podge10

From reading this thread and other media outlets there appears to be a spike in house prices since the start of the year. This is obviously driven by lack of supply.

However surely these has been a lack of supply through 2020 also. So do people think it’s been a cumulative effect over the last 6 to 12 months. Or is it more likely to be associated with strict level 5 since xmas and no house viewings etc? Naturally house prices tend to drift up annually. But there seems to be a lot of anecdotal examples of similar houses going for a lot more now than even in December last year.

[Deleted User]

awec wrote: »

Here's PropQueries spreading misinformation again. Either you are deliberately doing this at this stage or you do not understand what you are reading.

Social housing makes up ~10% of new private developments. ~90% of houses in new developments are bought on the private market by individuals. The article is pointing out that 75% of social housing is coming from the enforced 10% ring-fencing imposed on developers.

"No demand". Total bull****. There is no other way of putting it.

No.
10% has to be set aside for social housing. There is nothing stopping the council or any housing charity from buying houses and renting them to people on the list.
Which they do, regularly.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

Here's PropQueries spreading misinformation again. Either you are deliberately doing this at this stage or you do not understand what you are reading.

Social housing makes up ~10% of new private developments. ~90% of houses in new developments are bought on the private market by individuals. The article is pointing out that 75% of social housing is coming from the enforced 10% ring-fencing imposed on developers.

"No demand". Total bull****. There is no other way of putting it.

So we built c. 50,000 new units last year as the state “delivered” c. 5,000 new built social housing units last year...

That’s 10% according to your figure. Or even take the 75% figure. That still brings it to over 40,000 new built units last year.

Unless the state is buying/leasing a significantly bigger percentage than 10%?

PropQueries

And HAP is doubling to c. €1 billion this year. So, at an average rent of €20,000 per residential unit, that will mean the state will be renting an “additional” 25,000 properties this year alone.

Between buying, leasing and renting, doesn’t it look like the state is the property market on the demand side right now?

liam7831

I was talking to an auctioneer two weeks ago in Cork and he thinks once viewings open up prices and demand will rise further.
Once people on the payment get back to work and mortgage approval again they will add to the demand.

combat14

liam7831 wrote: »

I was talking to an auctioneer two weeks ago in Cork and he thinks once viewings open up prices and demand will rise further.
Once people on the payment get back to work and mortgage approval again they will add to the demand.

thats if businesses open up - alot of zombie companies will close too

L1011

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, according to the SBP today, “Over 75% of new social homes are bought or leased from builders”.

Therefore, at the moment, the state is the demand. So once their demand stops, that leaves all the new builds, ex-AirBnB, vacant properties and executor sales entirely reliant on the private market.

So there’s only two questions. When will the state stop buying, leasing, renting and is there enough private demand to meet the excess supply once they do leave the market?

There’s only two areas the government can cut revenue without cutting public sector salaries. Welfare and housing. Welfare can’t be cut. That only leaves the housing budget IMO.

Link to SBP article here: https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/over-75-of-new-social-homes-are-bought-or-leased-from-builders-48281ee5

Did you read the article, or only the tiny section that's available this side of the paywall?

If you did read the article, you definitely didn't understand it.

PropQueries

L1011 wrote: »

Did you read the article, or only the tiny section that's available this side of the paywall?

If you did read the article, you definitely didn't understand it.

So you believe the state isn’t buying or leasing any more than the 10% of new build units they’re entitled to?

If you do, I can’t argue your point as you’re wrong IMO

If you do believe the state is buying or leasing more than the 10% they’re entitled to (even 11%), then you must agree that the state is using taxpayers money to outbid and drive up the price for private buyers for any new built properties they buy or lease from developers in excess of the 10% the state is entitled to IMO

The state can’t get their hands on any new build properties above their 10% allocation without outbidding private buyers in the marketplace with their own tax money IMO

L1011

PropQueries wrote: »

So you believe the state isn’t buying or leasing any more than the 10% of new build units they’re entitled to?

If you do, I can’t argue your point as you’re wrong IMO

If you do believe the state is buying or leasing more than the 10% they’re entitled to (even 11%), then you must agree that the state is using taxpayers money to outbid and drive up the price for private buyers for any new built properties they buy or lease from developers in excess of the 10% the state is entitled to IMO

The state can’t get their hands on any new build properties above their 10% allocation without outbidding private buyers in the marketplace with their own tax money IMO

You didn't answer my question.

Did you or did you not read the full article?

This is a very important question for you to answer, as you have been infracted previously for misrepresenting the contents of an article.

MacronvFrugals

I think we’re confusing turnkeys and leasing with Part V requirements, Props is 100% right here the state is buying more than the 10% part V I know because my sister was outbid by DCC on a second hand house.

Last year alone 8000 houses were acquired through these lease deals

Killian Woods said today he had a developer saying these lease deals are “like a government bond”

It’s hilarious to suggest the state is not a big player especially in Dublin, as Dr Dáithí Downey from DCC said HAP will cost as much as building a new Children’s hospital annually within 4 years

Villa05

MacronvFrugals wrote:

Itâ€™s hilarious to suggest the state is not a big player especially in Dublin, as Dr DÃ¡ithÃ Downey from DCC said HAP will cost as much as building a new Childrenâ€™s hospital annually within 4 years

It really is shocking mismanagement/cronyism.

What's the point in putting in mortgage rules to protect citizens, banks and the taxpayer from property bubbles when taxpayers money is being used to prop up the bubble anyway

We are in an endless loop of scrwe ups when it comes to property. No matter what measure is put in place to protect the state a workaround is found and off we go again

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

It really is shocking mismanagement/cronyism.

What's the point in putting in mortgage rules to protect citizens, banks and the taxpayer from property bubbles when taxpayers money is being used to prop up the bubble anyway

We are in an endless loop of scrwe ups when it comes to property. No matter what measure is put in place to protect the state a workaround is found and off we go again

It’s down to public sector incompetence. If you give an idiot a blank cheque money gets pi*sed away. It’s just a question of where it gets wasted. Did you see the programme on the OPW the other night? It’s about people not having the competence to do their jobs. Knock on impact is there is no accountability. It doesn’t matter who is in government,you can have the best intentions and the best policy and unlimited budget but if you only have morons to execute....

standardg60

Villa05 wrote: »

It really is shocking mismanagement/cronyism.

What's the point in putting in mortgage rules to protect citizens, banks and the taxpayer from property bubbles when taxpayers money is being used to prop up the bubble anyway

We are in an endless loop of scrwe ups when it comes to property. No matter what measure is put in place to protect the state a workaround is found and off we go again

We only have ourselves to blame. Our political system is based entirely on the pursuit of power and retention of same. The current Government policy on housing is entirely based on the fact that the party which indulged in the biggest fantasy regarding housing provision got the most votes. It is simply the case that today political power is gained by following whatever trend is occupying the mind of the social media class.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

It’s down to public sector incompetence. If you give an idiot a blank cheque money gets pi*sed away. It’s just a question of where it gets wasted. Did you see the programme on the OPW the other night? It’s about people not having the competence to do their jobs. Knock on impact is there is no accountability. It doesn’t matter who is in government,you can have the best intentions and the best policy and unlimited budget but if you only have morons to execute....

What is the solution? It seems like all TDs, councillors, public servants etc are as bad as each other when it comes to waste. So ballot box is not the answer. There is nobody to vote for who will fix it. It's immensely frustrating as a lot of the waste appears to relatively easy to stop if anybody actually gave a damn.

Only solution I can think of that TDs are likely to enact is a bonus paid for money saved, administered by the Public Accounts Committee - performance related pay linked to money saved, split between members of PAC and the relevant ministers.

Eg if cost per head of HAP accommodation goes down, Darragh O'Brien gets a fat cheque.

Of course the biggest problem is nobody can be fired. Fix that and then we might get somewhere fixing the waste.

Read an article about the OPW programme, but didn't see it thankfully, not sure my blood pressure could handle it.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

What is the solution? It seems like all TDs, councillors, public servants etc are as bad as each other when it comes to waste. So ballot box is not the answer. There is nobody to vote for who will fix it. It's immensely frustrating as a lot of the waste appears to relatively easy to stop if anybody actually gave a damn.

Only solution I can think of that TDs are likely to enact is a bonus paid for money saved, administered by the Public Accounts Committee - performance related pay linked to money saved, split between members of PAC and the relevant ministers.

Eg if cost per head of HAP accommodation goes down, Darragh O'Brien gets a fat cheque.

Of course the biggest problem is nobody can be fired. Fix that and then we might get somewhere fixing the waste.

Read an article about the OPW programme, but didn't see it thankfully, not sure my blood pressure could handle it.

In parallel to a change in policy has to be reform in the provision of public services. That’s a very difficult task. Do you see any political parties in this country undertaking such an exercise? Would populism stand for it?

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

In parallel to a change in policy has to be reform in the provision of public services. That’s a very difficult task. Do you see any political parties in this country undertaking such an exercise? Would populism stand for it?

No chance!

We need a common sense party who says forget left/right ideology, climate change, United Ireland and all the other headline grabbers for now, we urgently need a root and branch reform of the culture and the way things are done in the public sector etc etc. After we have done that we can worry about the above.

But they wouldn't get any votes, so it is a bit pointless!

standardg60

Hubertj wrote: »

It’s down to public sector incompetence. If you give an idiot a blank cheque money gets pi*sed away. It’s just a question of where it gets wasted. Did you see the programme on the OPW the other night? It’s about people not having the competence to do their jobs. Knock on impact is there is no accountability. It doesn’t matter who is in government,you can have the best intentions and the best policy and unlimited budget but if you only have morons to execute....

Ireland has the largest rate of union membership in it's public sector than any other country in the EU. This is the reason it is systematically dysfunctional.

One instance, how is it considered normal that the Minister for education is compelled to address annual teacher union congresses?

Why are they considered 'stakeholders'?

They are nothing more than vested interests concerned with their own raison d'etre.

Hubertj

standardg60 wrote: »

Ireland has the largest rate of union membership in it's public sector than any other country in the EU. This is the reason it is systematically dysfunctional.

One instance, how is it considered normal that the Minister for education is compelled to address annual teacher union congresses?

Why are they considered 'stakeholders'?

They are nothing more than vested interests concerned with their own raison d'etre.

Well said. I didn’t know that about rate of union membership but makes sense when considering the level of disfunction. I think many of our “public servants” forget the purpose of being a public servant.

MacronvFrugals

I’m brought back to FGs 2011 manifesto - “The greatest reform to local government we’ve ever seen”

By that they meant Phil Hogan going in a with a double barrel and removing any teeth they have, now 10 years later leasing from developers at 2^ inflation linked rates is the MO

enricoh

Hubertj wrote: »

In parallel to a change in policy has to be reform in the provision of public services. That’s a very difficult task. Do you see any political parties in this country undertaking such an exercise? Would populism stand for it?

No chance, 1 in 3 workers work in the public sector when you include semi states and the 200k in the charity industry. It's a big voting block.

A lad I know was a skip driver around 10 years ago. He was collecting a big roll off skip from the local hospital and copped it was full of brand new beds still in the box. He went inside to tell them someone mucked up n eventually got talking to someone in the know. He was told they have a budget to spend and if they don't spend it next year it'd be cut! His boss flogged them to a nursing home. Around the same time people were protesting over cuts to hospital services and demanding more funding!