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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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Thargor

Ive had zero problem getting into see 4 different houses in person since Christmas tbh, another one next week.

ted1

Thargor wrote: »

Ive had zero problem getting into see 4 different houses in person since Christmas tbh, another one next week.

Reputable agency or a questionable one like castle?

[Deleted User]

ted1 wrote: »

Reputable agency or a questionable one like castle?

I did in person viewings with Sherry Fitzgerald in early March. Albeit in a rural location, not in Dublin.

But I haven’t heard about any official message about this from the government at all.

ted1

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I did in person viewings with Sherry Fitzgerald in early March. Albeit in a rural location, not in Dublin.

But I haven’t heard about any official message about this from the government at all.

Sherry Fitz were only doing virtual viewings in Dublin in March for us.

Thargor

ted1 wrote: »

Reputable agency or a questionable one like castle?

Cowboys Ted cowboys, one woman operation for two of them and the usual little random surname agencies you get in the cities outside Dublin for the rest. Nah cant fault the service or communications for any of them though.

DataDude

ted1 wrote: »

Reputable agency or a questionable one like castle?

I’ve also done a number of in person viewings with reputable agencies. What I’ve found is the first answer is always ‘no, virtual viewings only’, but if you get chatting to them and they get comfortable that you’re not going to ring Joe Duffy if they say yes, then eventually they’ll agree to it. They’ll never put it in an email either, over the phone only.

[Deleted User]

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/62-newgrange-road-cabra-dublin-7/4490824

I posted this is the buying thread, but this is a sign of craziness.
2 bed ex council in cabra, will sell for over half a million. Madness!

Cyrus

Pussyhands wrote: »

I'm seeing that crazyhouseprices instagram page spammed everywhere.

Gave it a like but noticed he's got a patreon set up. Some chancers out there!

Exactly

Shilling ain’t easy.

TheSheriff

bubblypop wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/62-newgrange-road-cabra-dublin-7/4490824

I posted this is the buying thread, but this is a sign of craziness.
2 bed ex council in cabra, will sell for over half a million. Madness!

In fairness, I've seen a lot less for the money in close ish areas, if you venture up to navan road you'll get a run down house for that price requiring total gutting.

Alot had been spent on the above linked house in cabra, the separate home studio will be very desirable.

Any idea what it's bidding at out of interest?

[Deleted User]

TheSheriff wrote: »

In fairness, I've seen a lot less for the money in close ish areas, if you venture up to navan road you'll get a run down house for that price requiring total gutting.

Alot had been spent on the above linked house in cabra, the separate home studio will be very desirable.

Ah stop! I'm watching the market around there for ages, any house on the navan road is a lot more desirable, bigger house, bigger garden, better location.
It is done lovely, but that's crazy money for what it is.

Edit, don't know what the bidding is, but there must be huge interest, the asking price has gone up by 45,000 euro!

Hubertj

DataDude wrote: »

I’ve also done a number of in person viewings with reputable agencies. What I’ve found is the first answer is always ‘no, virtual viewings only’, but if you get chatting to them and they get comfortable that you’re not going to ring Joe Duffy if they say yes, then eventually they’ll agree to it. They’ll never put it in an email either, over the phone only.

Out of interest what is involved in a ‘virtual viewing’? Estate agent walks around the gaff on a zoom call?

DataDude

Hubertj wrote: »

Out of interest what is involved in a ‘virtual viewing’? Estate agent walks around the gaff on a zoom call?

I’m actually not sure. I’ve never done one, but I think assume it’s what you’ve described. It’s either that or ‘here’s a YouTube link, lets watch it together or alternatively call me after and let know if any questions’.

No idea how people could rely on them. If there’s any issues like a big massive tree blocking all your evening sunlight (a big issue for me), for example, it’d be so easy to not show that in a video tour.

DataDude

bubblypop wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/62-newgrange-road-cabra-dublin-7/4490824

I posted this is the buying thread, but this is a sign of craziness.
2 bed ex council in cabra, will sell for over half a million. Madness!

This one confirmed it for me. We looked at two on the same road a few doors down this time last year. Similar condition, much bigger houses (I think 180 and 210sqm vs 155 here). Both had askings cut and still sold below the reduced asking at 1.05 & 1.1 respectively.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/16-frascati-park-blackrock-co-dublin/4492468

Cyrus

DataDude wrote: »

This one confirmed it for me. We looked at two on the same road a few doors down this time last year. Similar condition, much bigger houses (I think 180 and 210sqm vs 155 here). Both had askings cut and still sold below the reduced asking at 1.05 & 1.1 respectively.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/16-frascati-park-blackrock-co-dublin/4492468

I saw that yesterday and was surprised, one time frascati park would have been my dream location but I cooled on it as time went on, hard to see the value at that and I would not be surprised if it went for more !

DataDude

Cyrus wrote: »

I saw that yesterday and was surprised, one time frascati park would have been my dream location but I cooled on it as time went on, hard to see the value at that and I would not be surprised if it went for more !

I like the area and the houses but definitely no interest at that price point. Not sure it’ll go above, it’s an incredible premium on the others that sold (but who knows!). Even if it went at 1.2m, it’d be a big uplift on last year.

Not based on firm data, but I feel like Sherry Fitz tend to go high and usually sell below asking. Wish I had been tracking the selling agents over the past year to confirm my sense of it.

awec

DataDude wrote: »

I’ve also done a number of in person viewings with reputable agencies. What I’ve found is the first answer is always ‘no, virtual viewings only’, but if you get chatting to them and they get comfortable that you’re not going to ring Joe Duffy if they say yes, then eventually they’ll agree to it. They’ll never put it in an email either, over the phone only.

Yea there is a house across the road from me that's for sale and the past week I have noticed the EA showing 2 sets of people around it.

DataDude

awec wrote: »

Yea there is a house across the road from me that's for sale and the past week I have noticed the EA showing 2 sets of people around it.

Butter them up a bit. Complain a bit about restrictions, tell them how crazy it is that you can go to the shops with 100s of people but can’t view an empty house alone. ‘Is a home not essential??’. Praise the great and important work they do. Let them rant a little and you’re in. Works every time!

Hubertj

DataDude wrote: »

I’m actually not sure. I’ve never done one, but I think assume it’s what you’ve described. It’s either that or ‘here’s a YouTube link, lets watch it together or alternatively call me after and let know if any questions’.

No idea how people could rely on them. If there’s any issues like a big massive tree blocking all your evening sunlight (a big issue for me), for example, it’d be so easy to not show that in a video tour.

Totally agree. My wife was big on the sunlight piece. Never occurred to me... she insisted on a viewing in the evening time. I was oblivious..

DataDude

Hubertj wrote: »

Totally agree. My wife was big on the sunlight piece. Never occurred to me... she insisted on a viewing in the evening time. I was oblivious..

If you’re ever viewing again, highly recommend an app called ‘sun surveyor’. It’s a 10er but you can put camera up to the sky and it will show you where the sun will be at any time on any day of the year. Great for highlighting potential obstacles during a viewing.

Think you need a reasonably modern phone and would recommend trying out at home before a viewing. I was fiddling around with it for ages in someone’s garden the first time around!

RichardAnd

DataDude wrote: »

Butter them up a bit. Complain a bit about restrictions, tell them how crazy it is that you can go to the shops with 100s of people but can’t view an empty house alone. ‘Is a home not essential??’. Praise the great and important work they do. Let them rant a little and you’re in. Works every time!

This probably would work, but virtual viewings in and of themselves are highly disruptive. I called an estate agent last week about a house in Coolock that was listed for 240k on a Friday evening. By Tuesdays (when I called), the highest big was 298k, and apparently no one had yet seen it.

The agent told me that I could make a bid to see the house, thus one can assume that many of the bids that pushed up the price were simply people who wanted to see the house and had no intention of buying. There is indeed a supply issue, but this is simply confounding the problem. I'm not one to moralise, but this is not what I would consider to be an ethical business practice, but I digress....

My worry is that estate agents, at least those in Dublin, will not simply end the "bid to view" method as it is forcing up prices, even if physical viewing are permitted.

EDIT: incidentally, I asked the agent above what was required to make a bid, and he told me that he could accept it over the phone. When I asked him whether he wished me to provide proof of funds, he said that it wasn't necessary to make an offer. Hmm....

Villa05

bubblypop wrote:

I posted this is the buying thread, but this is a sign of craziness. 2 bed ex council in cabra, will sell for over half a million. Madness!

Just a thought
Does social housing get stigmatised by the few noisy over the many decent estates and even within the few noisy estates it's the very few households responsible for the vast majority of trouble

Bad apples and empty vessels and all that wisdom etc

Browney7

bubblypop wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/62-newgrange-road-cabra-dublin-7/4490824

I posted this is the buying thread, but this is a sign of craziness.
2 bed ex council in cabra, will sell for over half a million. Madness!

Sold for 257.5k in 2015. They probably spent 100k on the place max?

Mr_Muffin

I live in a part of the country (South-West) where house prices aren't as high as say, Dublin or Cork city, but the demand is still there, as properties don't stay on the market for long and most go for above the listed price. Property prices are sky high because of this relevant to the location.

I can't get my head around where people are actually getting the money to purchase such properties. I know people get mortgages (obviously), but with the 3.5 gross salary rule, it's still a stretch for anyone on even a good salary to afford a modest home. Am I missing something?

RichardAnd

Mr_Muffin wrote: »

I live in a part of the country (South-West) where house prices aren't as high as say, Dublin or Cork city, but the demand is still there, as properties don't stay on the market for long and most go for above the listed price. Property prices are sky high because of this relevant to the location.

I can't get my head around where people are actually getting the money to purchase such properties. I know people get mortgages (obviously), but with the 3.5 gross salary rule, it's still a stretch for anyone on even a good salary to afford a modest home. Am I missing something?

I ask myself this question too. IT could be investment firms, but then again, some people do have a hell of a lot of cash in savings. Two people on 70k+ would put away a lot of savings, and they would qualify for a large mortgage to boot.

MacronvFrugals

Browney7 wrote: »

Sold for 257.5k in 2015. They probably spent 100k on the place max?

In the last few weeks a house went up for 450k in Cabra, it sold for 540k to a Chinese investor.

Very nicely done house but 540k wow

Reins

Pussyhands wrote: »

I'm seeing that crazyhouseprices instagram page spammed everywhere.

Gave it a like but noticed he's got a patreon set up. Some chancers out there!

Oh come on!

He's over 32k followers so reaching a wide audience which is only good.

€1.85 patronage a month is hardly gonna break the bank.

I'd happily pay it.

ebayissues

1.85 x 1000/32,000 followers x 12 = 22k

Every little helps

[Deleted User]

Mr_Muffin wrote: »

I live in a part of the country (South-West) where house prices aren't as high as say, Dublin or Cork city, but the demand is still there, as properties don't stay on the market for long and most go for above the listed price. Property prices are sky high because of this relevant to the location.

I can't get my head around where people are actually getting the money to purchase such properties. I know people get mortgages (obviously), but with the 3.5 gross salary rule, it's still a stretch for anyone on even a good salary to afford a modest home. Am I missing something?

People have lots of savings. Not unusual for a couple to have 100k savings towards a house deposit. And many have inheritance/rich parents!

Reins

ebayissues wrote: »

1.85 x 1000/32,000 followers x 12 = 22k

Every little helps

He has 200 patreons

32k Instagram FOLLOWERS

KBH2020

Mr_Muffin wrote: »

I live in a part of the country (South-West) where house prices aren't as high as say, Dublin or Cork city, but the demand is still there, as properties don't stay on the market for long and most go for above the listed price. Property prices are sky high because of this relevant to the location.

I can't get my head around where people are actually getting the money to purchase such properties. I know people get mortgages (obviously), but with the 3.5 gross salary rule, it's still a stretch for anyone on even a good salary to afford a modest home. Am I missing something?

We are looking in Dublin and I think what is happening currently is people who would normally be looking to buy a house in the 500-600k bracket are now making bids in the 400-500k bracket, likewise people in the 400-500k bracket are now looking in the 300-400k bracket and this is all because of the limited supply and the desperation to secure a property. I can't think of any other explanation as to how houses are getting offers so high above the asking price. I believe the majority of people normally max out their budget when buying a property to get the best property they can afford.

I read something last year that said the average deposit in Dublin was approx 85K for the past few years. I am not sure if this is massively skewed by people who have large inheritances rather than savings but I imagine a lot of people across the country do have large deposits, whether saved or inherited. Of course Covid has contributed greatly to savings for a lot of people who were in the market to buy.

It is mind boggling though. I have been saving since 2015, myself and partner living with my parents for 1.5 years (always planned to go for AIP Jan 2021), we have been saving majority of our income each month for this entire time, we worked very hard to get two promotions each..got the AIP we needed and now we feel we are priced out of the type of house we had hoped to buy. Extremely frustrating and difficult after the last year as well. There will be a lot of people locked out of the market completely because of this and I can't even imagine how they must feel.

I think bidding will calm a bit with supply and in person viewings but don't know when