schmittel wrote: » This is an old trope on this forum - nobody knows that for certain; you don’t have a crystal ball (or time machine) in this case. It’s most often used to try and undermine somebody whose opinion a poster doesn’t agree, or occasionally as in this case, to try and claim an opinion so far fetched might true, just because nobody can definitively say otherwise without a crystal ball or time machine. Classic clutching at straws to avoid simply say, yep, I see I didn’t really think that one through. I have neither a crystal ball nor a time machine but I am 100% certain that Covid has negatively impacted supply. Anybody who thinks otherwise is living in dreamland, never mind a different dimension.
fliball123 wrote: » It is hard to know unless you have you have a time machine and went back to 2019 and blow up Wuhan so the virus never escapes and then play it out with 2020 dealing with the big news story of Brexit looming large? Did you use a time machine?? can I have a go of it please??? Or maybe yourself from a different dimension where these factors are in play told you.
schmittel wrote: » In both quarters they talk of a trend of falling prices because of a trend of increasing supply. Whilst I can accept there maybe have been a one off monthly drop in December 2019 due to some unknown anomaly, the idea that this was the start of a shift in supply trending downwards to the point we are at today, possibly unrelated to Covid, is utter nonsense.
fliball123 wrote: » I dont think I ever said that?? I said that the turn in the amount of supply started happening back in Q4 in 2019 so it had nothing to do with Covid as Covid hit in Feb. I have said covid has hit supply hard, but could Brexit not of been playing apart pre-covid, how prevalent would we have been talking about Brexit had covid not entered the mind space. The fact is that we will never know what way the numbers would of went had Covid not been a factor.
DataDude wrote: » Post1: "Its hard to know if Covid made this worse" Post5: "Covid came in and blew everything out of the water."
fliball123 wrote: » Well I reckon that Brexit could of had some impact here. But we will never know as Covid came in and blew everything out of the water.
Marius34 wrote: » Yes, it's seasonal, it reaches highest peak in beginning of October, lowest in January. But even if we take out seasonality, decrease of property for sale started from November 2019, comparing on annual basis.
Marius34 wrote: » Daft and Myhome follows same pattern, you won't find information that Dec 2019 - March 2020 there were more properties for sale, than a year prior.
fliball123 wrote: » I was tracking this as well back then and there was a definite decreasing in the last quarter on myhome in 2019. As I say it could of been seasonal , it could of been Brexit looming large or a combo ov both but what is sure is covid had not hit at that stage.
DataDude wrote: » It's one data point. There's plenty of example of sharp downs in one or two quarters followed by ups in the following quarters. You don't project trends in the way that you're suggesting. If you gave the graph to anyone who analyses trends for a living (I do) as at Q4 2019 and asked them to interpret the data. They'd say supply has been pretty stable over the previous 4 years, perhaps marginally increasing, however there's an unusual dip off in Q4 2019, lets explore that a bit further and try to understand it. I suspect that's what MyHome did and concluded it was to do with Brexit and were anticipating a quick reversion in the following quarters. You would absolutely not conclude that there is a general trend of supply going down at Q4 2019.
schmittel wrote: » I'll go with the daft report so.
Marius34 wrote: » I'm following myhome adds, and collecting some data for my own stats. Since November 2019 number of adds started to go down comparing on annual basis.
timmyntc wrote: » *ads And the actual published statistics would prove you wrong - so your own data is incorrect.
fliball123 wrote: » Look I am not doubting that covid has helped with the reduction in supply but it was going down pre-covid now weather that was time of the year, brexit or something else I dont know and we will never know.
schmittel wrote: » Where are you getting this from?
The transition from sharply rising prices in mid-2017 to slightly falling prices by early 2020 was a gradual one and related to ever-improving supply on the market, in particular of newly built family homes in the Greater Dublin Area.
Claw Hammer wrote: » That is a myth. Married men got higher pay than women or single men as well as more tax free allowances. Houses were not built to the same standard as modern times. There was no insulation, central heating or en-suite. Fitted kitchens were unknown. One socket to a room. Wooden single pane windows.
Marius34 wrote: » Agree, that's correct
DataDude wrote: » It dropped to c.20k in December 2019. There is always a drop in December as fewer people list houses in that month. December 2019 was particularly bad. The MyHome report said people were just holding off in December awaiting clarity from Brexit and expected a sharp bounce back in listings. The drop in December brought numbers back exactly in line where the supply (red line) had been at points in 2016 and 2018, i.e. not that much of an aberration based on the recent past. COVID-19 then caused it to drop to 11.8k. 59% of it's lowest point in the past decade. Your argument that COVID-19 has not impacted the supply of housing in Ireland is easily the most absurd suggestion so far in my 6 months following this thread.
fliball123 wrote: » Sorry but supply was coming off stream from back in Dec 2019 even before Covid entered the country.
Its hard to know if Covid made this worse
Pussyhands wrote: » Never get the thing about house prices being so cheap decades ago. At the end of the day, house prices rise due to people being willing to pay more for them. Back in the day a man worked and the woman stayed at home. Then once women started working, more people had more money, so the rest had to go out working to afford it then. If everyone out there was a single person bidder, prices would eventually crash.
fliball123 wrote: » Sorry but supply was coming off stream from back in Dec 2019 even before Covid entered the country. Its hard to know if Covid made this worse
fliball123 wrote: » It was up at 22k in Oct/Nov in 2019 this is when it started going down.
