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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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Villa05

JimmyVik wrote:

That would be around when women really started coming into the workforce. Also the banks and building societies started dropping that saving with them for 2 years before they would give you a mortgage rule. Interest rates were about 8% at that time too. Not long after interest rates started dropping like a stone.

Were some banks focused on housing like the tsb and the big banks aib and boi more focused on business and then they put all there eggs in the mortgage market

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

I'm struggling to keep up. You've been telling us that demand has rocketed as evidenced by the fact mortgage approvals have rocketed.

But now mortgage approvals don't really mean much because banks are nitpicking?

So does that mean that evidence of surge in demand doesn't mean much?

All I am pointing out is the extra checks the banks are doing. Look if you compare to 2008 they are not throwing money at people looking for loans. Have a look at the currently buying or selling thread a lot people are having an absolute nightmare trying to draw down.

Pussyhands

Never get the thing about house prices being so cheap decades ago.

At the end of the day, house prices rise due to people being willing to pay more for them.

Back in the day a man worked and the woman stayed at home.

Then once women started working, more people had more money, so the rest had to go out working to afford it then.

If everyone out there was a single person bidder, prices would eventually crash.

Cyrus

Pussyhands wrote: »

Never get the thing about house prices being so cheap decades ago.

At the end of the day, house prices rise due to people being willing to pay more for them.

Back in the day a man worked and the woman stayed at home.

Then once women started working, more people had more money, so the rest had to go out working to afford it then.

If everyone out there was a single person bidder, prices would eventually crash.

exactly

combat14

seems as if supply has floored with covid lockdowns while at the same time the only houses available are being snapped up within two weeks without even being seen by buyers.... who appear to be willing to pay any price...

will be interesting to see what happens when the market returns to 'normal' and we get a glimpse of how many cant repay their mortgage after a year of lockdowns, how many zombie businesses close, how many jobs are created and lost and what the true migration and house supply numbers are... and what the government intends to do to our taxes to repay the covid billions and balance the budget again, hard to tell at the moment..

on a seperate note great to hear pharma and it are booming, they now make up over half of our exports ..growing approx 15% last year .. lets hope we are not overly reliant on any sector going forward .. when have we seen that before?!

timmyntc

Pussyhands wrote: »

Never get the thing about house prices being so cheap decades ago.

At the end of the day, house prices rise due to people being willing to pay more for them.

Back in the day a man worked and the woman stayed at home.

Then once women started working, more people had more money, so the rest had to go out working to afford it then.

If everyone out there was a single person bidder, prices would eventually crash.

The big difference now is that there are even more players in the market - commercial entities and government itself and are bidding in the private market and pushing prices up. Property investments are giving better yields than most bonds since interest rates are so low. All well and good for institutional investors, but the little person gets shafted (as per usual)

Marius34

Pussyhands wrote: »

Never get the thing about house prices being so cheap decades ago.

At the end of the day, house prices rise due to people being willing to pay more for them.

Back in the day a man worked and the woman stayed at home.

Then once women started working, more people had more money, so the rest had to go out working to afford it then.

If everyone out there was a single person bidder, prices would eventually crash.

In addition, when I look at the older properties in Dublin, big part of them were Terraced houses, with a size less than 100 sqm, and the ones over 100 sqm in many case are due to extensions (except Dublin 4&6). So it doesn't make to much sense to me, if it was so affordable decades ago, but people were buying those small houses, and not bigger ones like in D4&D6.

Villa05

Pussyhands wrote:

At the end of the day, house prices rise due to people being willing to pay more for them.

Property is a leveraged purchase, so property prices can be manipulated by what banks/government make available for their purchase. Best practice rules have been formed to avoid asset price bubbles.

Banks operating outside these rules usually ends in a crash
Governments implementing work arounds of these rules will bring the same result

Pussyhands wrote:

Then once women started working, more people had more money, so the rest had to go out working to afford it then.

One would expect when more money is made available for a product, it would lead to significant improvements in the quality of that product, yet overtime the average size of homes and gardens has decreased in that time.

There have also been more issues with the use of sub standard materials, planning scandals, building on land prone to flooding. Fire safety issues etc

standardg60

Goldman Sachs seeking to sell it's portfolio of non-performing Irish mortgages, seemingly in an attempt to pre-empt an expected mass selling of similar portfolios by other institutions this year.
Be very interesting to see how much of their 400 million liability they'll accept in order to walk away.

What odds calls from the left for the State to purchase these portfolios to 'keep families in their homes'?
In for a penny in for a pound.

timmyntc

standardg60 wrote: »

Goldman Sachs seeking to sell it's portfolio of non-performing Irish mortgages, seemingly in an attempt to pre-empt an expected mass selling of similar portfolios by other institutions this year.
Be very interesting to see how much of their 400 million liability they'll accept in order to walk away.

What odds calls from the left for the State to purchase these portfolios to 'keep families in their homes'?
In for a penny in for a pound.

The state should buy them, then change the laws to allow evictions of non-paying mortgages if they refuse to arrange some payment plan.

[Deleted User]

fliball123 wrote: »

All I am pointing out is the extra checks the banks are doing. Look if you compare to 2008 they are not throwing money at people looking for loans. Have a look at the currently buying or selling thread a lot people are having an absolute nightmare trying to draw down.

I'll second this. Okay, was a 2nd home, but well within parameters - overall salary multiples, % income, and LTV. Not even close to them. And have a perfect credit score.

But the hoops I had to jump through with permTSB were astonishing. Just kept coming back for more and more information - evidence of specific income & outgoings, multiple certifications from my work (a well established MNC), credit checks in the UK and USA (where both my wife and I have spent time in the last 5 years) They went through my bank statements forensically and queried numerous credits and debits.

It's done. But it is another anecdote supporting the fact that the banks are being super cautious

Stark

Deleted User wrote: »

But the hoops I had to jump through with permTSB were astonishing. Just kept coming back for more and more information - evidence of specific income & outgoings, multiple certifications from my work (a well established MNC), credit checks in the UK and USA (where both my wife and I have spent time in the last 5 years) They went through my bank statements forensically and queried numerous credits and debits.

"What is this... OnlyFans?".

MacronvFrugals

standardg60 wrote: »

What odds calls from the left for the State to purchase these portfolios to 'keep families in their homes'?
In for a penny in for a pound.

Sure at the minute the state is enriching developers and investments funds beyond their wildest dreams...

Inflation linked leasing from funds
HAP
HTB
Shared equity (developer written)
RI 5/1 mortgages
Developer written planning procedures (which hasnt speeded up anything)
LDA - a super quango from FG to give developers unbelievably
valuable land

Bugs Bunny has eaten less carrots than we've given to the property industry and they still cant provide the goods, by goods i mean nurses are being told to clear out or rent a one bed slum, it may be time for a few sticks!

[Deleted User]

Stark wrote: »

"What is this... OnlyFans?".

Yeah, those incoming credits probably stood out

JimmyVik

combat14 wrote: »

seems as if supply has floored with covid lockdowns while at the same time the only houses available are being snapped up within two weeks without even being seen by buyers.... who appear to be willing to pay any price...

will be interesting to see what happens when the market returns to 'normal' and we get a glimpse of how many cant repay their mortgage after a year of lockdowns, how many zombie businesses close, how many jobs are created and lost and what the true migration and house supply numbers are... and what the government intends to do to our taxes to repay the covid billions and balance the budget again, hard to tell at the moment..

on a seperate note great to hear pharma and it are booming, they now make up over half of our exports ..growing approx 15% last year .. lets hope we are not overly reliant on any sector going forward .. when have we seen that before?!

I think the market is 3 or 4 years away from normal.
Hope im wrong.

Villa05

JimmyVik wrote:

I think the market is 3 or 4 years away from normal. Hope im wrong.

Your hopes will be answered. It's been dysfunctional for nearly 3 decades. The level of dysfunction is increasing.

Boom bust all the way

[Deleted User]

Villa05 wrote: »

Your hopes will be answered. It's been dysfunctional for nearly 3 decades. The level of dysfunction is increasing.

Boom bust all the way

There may be small corrections. But IMO the only thing that would lead to any substantive change in the dynamics would be a mass withdrawal from Ireland of MNCs. And although many are highly conscious of the costs of doing business here (my own MNC revisits the Ireland salary uplift annually, and I know that there are grumblings at board level about it) they are not going anywhere any time soon

fliball123

combat14 wrote: »

seems as if supply has floored with covid lockdowns while at the same time the only houses available are being snapped up within two weeks without even being seen by buyers.... who appear to be willing to pay any price...

will be interesting to see what happens when the market returns to 'normal' and we get a glimpse of how many cant repay their mortgage after a year of lockdowns, how many zombie businesses close, how many jobs are created and lost and what the true migration and house supply numbers are... and what the government intends to do to our taxes to repay the covid billions and balance the budget again, hard to tell at the moment..

on a seperate note great to hear pharma and it are booming, they now make up over half of our exports ..growing approx 15% last year .. lets hope we are not overly reliant on any sector going forward .. when have we seen that before?!

Sorry but supply was coming off stream from back in Dec 2019 even before Covid entered the country. Its hard to know if Covid made this worse

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

Sorry but supply was coming off stream from back in Dec 2019 even before Covid entered the country. Its hard to know if Covid made this worse

Nonsense.

DataDude

fliball123 wrote: »

Sorry but supply was coming off stream from back in Dec 2019 even before Covid entered the country. Its hard to know if Covid made this worse

The number of houses for sale on MyHome had never been above 25k or below 20k between the period of 2014 and Q4 2019. In the last 12 months it's fallen from 20k to 11.8k. It is not hard to know if COVID made things worse.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

Nonsense.

That is around the time where property started to disappear from Myhome.

fliball123

DataDude wrote: »

The number of houses for sale on MyHome had never been above 25k or below 20k between the period of 2014 and Q4 2019. In the last 12 months it's fallen from 20k to 11.8k. It is not hard to know if COVID made things worse.

It was up at 22k in Oct/Nov in 2019 this is when it started going down.

DataDude

fliball123 wrote: »

It was up at 22k in Oct/Nov in 2019 this is when it started going down.

It dropped to c.20k in December 2019. There is always a drop in December as fewer people list houses in that month. December 2019 was particularly bad. The MyHome report said people were just holding off in December awaiting clarity from Brexit and expected a sharp bounce back in listings.

The drop in December brought numbers back exactly in line where the supply (red line) had been at points in 2016 and 2018, i.e. not that much of an aberration based on the recent past. COVID-19 then caused it to drop to 11.8k. 59% of it's lowest point in the past decade. Your argument that COVID-19 has not impacted the supply of housing in Ireland is easily the most absurd suggestion so far in my 6 months following this thread.

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

It dropped to c.20k in December 2019. There is always a drop in December as fewer people list houses in that month. December 2019 was particularly bad. The MyHome report said people were just holding off in December awaiting clarity from Brexit and expected a sharp bounce back in listings.

The drop in December brought numbers back exactly in line where the supply (red line) had been at points in 2016 and 2018, i.e. not that much of an aberration based on the recent past. COVID-19 then caused it to drop to 11.8k. 59% of it's lowest point in the past decade. Your argument that COVID-19 has not impacted the supply of housing in Ireland is easily the most absurd suggestion so far in my 6 months following this thread.

I'll second that, and I've been following for about 12 months.

awec

fliball123 wrote: »

Sorry but supply was coming off stream from back in Dec 2019 even before Covid entered the country. Its hard to know if Covid made this worse

Whether or not supply trended downward in 2019, it is absolutely clear that covid has caused the enormous fall in supply that we have seen in 2020/21.

When construction has been shut for large periods, commencements non-existent and viewings not allowed, it's about as obvious as it can get.

bonkers

This is on myhome now on a property added today, first time i have seen that..

Description

Dear Valued Customer,

To view this property at the advertised time, please email us for a designated time slot and appointment confirmation.

If this time does not suit, we will be delighted to offer an alternative day/time.

Only 2 people from the same household can attend a viewing.

The health and wellbeing of you and our team is our No. 1 priority.

All of our properties are on view. If you wish to attend a viewing you must email or phone our office in advance at 0 to secure a 5 minute time slot to view the property, ensuring your safety and the safety of others.

Claw Hammer

Pussyhands wrote: »

Never get the thing about house prices being so cheap decades ago.

At the end of the day, house prices rise due to people being willing to pay more for them.

Back in the day a man worked and the woman stayed at home.

Then once women started working, more people had more money, so the rest had to go out working to afford it then.

If everyone out there was a single person bidder, prices would eventually crash.

That is a myth. Married men got higher pay than women or single men as well as more tax free allowances. Houses were not built to the same standard as modern times. There was no insulation, central heating or en-suite. Fitted kitchens were unknown. One socket to a room. Wooden single pane windows.

Marius34

fliball123 wrote: »

Sorry but supply was coming off stream from back in Dec 2019 even before Covid entered the country.

Agree, that's correct

Its hard to know if Covid made this worse

Pretty sure, Covid/WHF made it worst.

fliball123

DataDude wrote: »

It dropped to c.20k in December 2019. There is always a drop in December as fewer people list houses in that month. December 2019 was particularly bad. The MyHome report said people were just holding off in December awaiting clarity from Brexit and expected a sharp bounce back in listings.

The drop in December brought numbers back exactly in line where the supply (red line) had been at points in 2016 and 2018, i.e. not that much of an aberration based on the recent past. COVID-19 then caused it to drop to 11.8k. 59% of it's lowest point in the past decade. Your argument that COVID-19 has not impacted the supply of housing in Ireland is easily the most absurd suggestion so far in my 6 months following this thread.

Look I am not doubting that covid has helped with the reduction in supply but it was going down pre-covid now weather that was time of the year, brexit or something else I dont know and we will never know.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

Agree, that's correct

Where are you getting this from?