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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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Villa05

Baby01032012 wrote:

Had a look at the Daft Q1 sales report being released tomorrow, supply down 34%, average price nationwide up 7% in Q1. Dublin prices up 8% in last 12 months with many counties outside Dublin up 11-12% in last 12 months.

Imagine what a shared ownership scheme will do in an environment like this

[Deleted User]

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I have stopped even looking, would feel like an awful sucker buying now!

McWilliams is right also that a serious amount of houses are probate (the bathrooms give them away)

I doubt that at any given moment in time a serious number of houses on the market are probate, given how difficult it is to repossess a house in Ireland.

Marius34

TheSheriff wrote: »

Worth pointing out for those wandering into this thread that the majority of people (myself included) have been 100% wrong on the market. It goes to show nobody really has a clue....

Did anyone call the increase ? I can only remember that we were meant to have 75% decreases.

By expecting only 3-5% decrease, you already was seen as an Estate Agent.
Now I'm saying that we won't see 2020 lows anymore, and it seems like I'm not talking serious.
Someone predicting price increase in beginning of the crisis, by most would be seen as an absolute joke..
I think this mindset is caused by unique 2008 massive Crash. As if this should repeat from now on, on any Crisis.

I think this is a good video for this thread, if it's a good time to buy property:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCzfLX_meDU

fago

Since it seemed like a constant question, the source data is available and the maths is simple I tried to see how closely correlated the daft report might be against the CSO.

Took:
- https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2021/
- https://ww1.daft.ie/report/2021-Q1-houseprice-daftreport.pdf?d_rd=1 The asking prices residential table.

Both daft and CSO are normalized to 100 but to a different base, so I just looked at the ratio.

I am comparing the daft number and the CSO PPR number ~one year later~. That gives plenty of time for changes in asking price to filter through to completed sales appearing on the PPR.

The data would indicate there has been a pretty consistently relationship between the 2 for the last 6 years.
Net: If asking prices are up 10% Mar 2021 the PPR should be up 10% in Mar 2022.

(This is the sort of activity that daft should really do, with a bit more statistical rigor)

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

By expecting only 3-5% decrease, you already was seen as an Estate Agent.
Now I'm saying that we won't see 2020 lows anymore, and it seems like I'm not talking serious.
Someone predicting price increase in beginning of the crisis, by most would be seen as an absolute joke..
I think this mindset is caused by unique 2008 massive Crash. As if this should repeat from now on, on any Crisis.

If the 2008 crash was caused by too much credit given to homebuyers and investors, isn't the exact same thing happening now? i.e. the state being offered too much credit to buy, enter in long-term lease agreements or to pay for a doubling of HAP this year?

Just like when the credit was removed from the private market after 2007, once the credit is removed from the state, the exact same thing happens IMO

People go on about the funds etc. But the apartments and houses being built by the funds are only possible because the state is either buying or leasing a significant percentage of the end product.

It's all down to when someone believes when this credit to the state will dry up. Then we do have a 2008 scenario again IMO

As is often mentioned here, the property market doesn't impact on people in safe relatively high paying jobs like the multinationals, public sector etc.

But, if they really are in such relatively high paying jobs, I assume most would already have being renting. If they buy, their previously rented property enters the market again i.e. near enough zero-sum.

The state is the demand side of the housing market now and once the state is forced to pull out, the market plummets IMO

Villa05

TheSheriff wrote:

Worth pointing out for those wandering into this thread that the majority of people (myself included) have been 100% wrong on the market. It goes to show nobody really has a clue....

Is it really a mystery though given what the state is doing which this thread has been excellent in highlighting. The vast majority on here, many with an obvious vested interest were predicting a fall and instead we are looking at double digit increases. That shows the level of interference.

JimmyVik

Villa05 wrote: »

Is it really a mystery though given what the state is doing which this thread has been excellent in highlighting. The vast majority on here, many with an obvious vested interest were predicting a fall and instead we are looking at double digit increases. That shows the level of interference.

State interference drives property prices up.
State interference drives rent up.

State might do well to read those two sentences.

timmyntc

PropQueries wrote: »

If the 2008 crash was caused by too much credit given to homebuyers and investors, isn't the exact same thing happening now? i.e. the state being offered too much credit to buy, enter in long-term lease agreements or to pay for a doubling of HAP this year?

Just like when the credit was removed from the private market after 2007, once the credit is removed from the state, the exact same thing happens IMO

People go on about the funds etc. But the apartments and houses being built by the funds are only possible because the state is either buying or leasing a significant percentage of the end product.

It's all down to when someone believes when this credit to the state will dry up. Then we do have a 2008 scenario again IMO

As is often mentioned here, the property market doesn't impact on people in safe relatively high paying jobs like the multinationals, public sector etc.

But, if they really are in such relatively high paying jobs, I assume most would already have being renting. If they buy, their previously rented property enters the market again i.e. near enough zero-sum.

The state is the demand side of the housing market now and once the state is forced to pull out, the market plummets IMO

All true in theory - but the thing with public debt is that there are no rules - countries can borrow and borrow and noone really cares. This country will be borrowing for the foreseeable and I cant see the credit drying up tbh

TheSheriff

Villa05 wrote: »

Is it really a mystery though given what the state is doing which this thread has been excellent in highlighting. The vast majority on here, many with an obvious vested interest were predicting a fall and instead we are looking at double digit increases. That shows the level of interference.

Totally agree, and also agree that should the shared equity come to pass these figures will be pumped up further.

Nobody wins again, except for the REITs

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

We have direct access to one of the biggest labour markets in the world in the eu

During the pandemic we had no issue bringing in fruit pickers from Bulgaria. Did strawberries double in price as a result

Again during the pandemic, one of the main arteries into limerick City was completely resurfaced efficiently by a crew of Eastern European workers who worked day and night. Imagine that working on roads at night in the Irish Republic. I don't know what happened the council workers that used to do this work, maybe there still waiting to be transferred to Irish water

I suppose if we were getting any notions that Government would help to address the supply issue they are now and into the future pursuing a policy of long term leasing when it certainly appears that commercial property will be winding down for some time thus releasing significant labour resources to the market.
So we are the largest owner of land
Access to 0% finance
Access to an increasing labour pool. some of which may end up on social welfare and the EU encouraging states to stimulate economies to reboot after the pandemic.
Yet the government believes long term leasing of existing housing with what is reported to be a chronic supply issue is the answer.

Dancing around the question as usual. Where would they all live as there was clearly a shortage of accommodation already. But go ahead and blame the gubberment as usual.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Is it really a mystery though given what the state is doing which this thread has been excellent in highlighting. The vast majority on here, many with an obvious vested interest were predicting a fall and instead we are looking at double digit increases. That shows the level of interference.

This thread has also been excellent at highlighting how many people don’t have a clue what is going on with the property market. There are conspiracy theorists, people who think there is nothing wrong, misery merchants and those that think they now what’s going on. Some of the stuff posted here is neary as bad as what you read on the Covid forum. Mad stuff altogether

6541

Hubertj wrote: »

This thread has also been excellent at highlighting how many people don’t have a clue what is going on with the property market. There are conspiracy theorists, people who think there is nothing wrong, misery merchants and those that think they now what’s going on. Some of the stuff posted here is neary as bad as what you read on the Covid forum. Mad stuff altogether

Okay so - Can you summarize what is actually going on and then what you predict will happen. Thanks.

woejus

AdamD wrote: »

I doubt that at any given moment in time a serious number of houses on the market are probate, given how difficult it is to repossess a house in Ireland.

You seem confused on the meaning of repossession & probate.

Probate sales are a relatively steady supply of properties (albeit usually in a state of disrepair), as the number of people dying and leaving estates is relatively similar year to year.

Repossessions are a function of political will and overall performance of loan books.

There is a well oiled machine working in the background, packaging up NPLs and repos to be sold to investors and individually through platforms like bidx1.

JohnnyChimpo

woejus wrote: »

You seem confused on the meaning of repossession & probate.

Probate sales are a relatively steady supply of properties (albeit usually in a state of disrepair), as the number of people dying and leaving estates is relatively similar year to year.

Repossessions are a function of political will and overall performance of loan books.

There is a well oiled machine working in the background, packaging up NPLs and repos to be sold to investors and individually through platforms like bidx1.

tbf, the former owner would have a lot of difficulty repossessing a house after it goes into probate.

unless the new owners break out the ouija board

Pussyhands

What's happening if you see a property go up on Daft but it's gone within a week but then weeks and weeks later there's still nothing on the PPR.

I saw a lovely spot I'm sure it was pre Christmas and it was taken down within a week. I don't see it anywhere on PPR.

Villa05

TheSheriff wrote:

Totally agree, and also agree that should the shared equity come to pass these figures will be pumped up further.

Shared equity is a bit of a panic from Ff. They are worried that homeownership rates are falling towards 60% and that will be the catalyst for a voters revolt as we head towards a critical mass of citizens that are impacted by extortionate rents.

Shared ownership is a mechanism to get more people in with skin in the game. It of course is going to be inflationary and will again blow up in our faces.

Ff was always party before the country no matter what the cost
Ff claim to have learned the lessons of the last crash. I'd say it's the wrong lessons they learned. They are using similar tactics to anglo irish

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

Dancing around the question as usual. Where would they all live as there was clearly a shortage of accommodation already. But go ahead and blame the gubberment as usual.

Okay
We can't build houses because they are no houses for the builders to live in so we will do sweet fkall
and
when we do have builders we'll put them on social welfare and buy 750k units for them to live in

Thanks for your contribution

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Okay
We can't build houses because they are no houses for the builders to live in so we will do sweet fkall
and
when we do have builders we'll put them on social welfare and buy 750k units for them to live in

Thanks for your contribution

If you bother to read my post I was referring to the last 5-7 years when there was a focus on building commercial and not residential. But sidestep again.

Hubertj

6541 wrote: »

Okay so - Can you summarize what is actually going on and then what you predict will happen. Thanks.

Oh I don’t have a clue either. My post wasn’t intended to mean I know everything. Quite the opposite.

Mad_maxx

Marius34 wrote: »

By expecting only 3-5% decrease, you already was seen as an Estate Agent.
Now I'm saying that we won't see 2020 lows anymore, and it seems like I'm not talking serious.
Someone predicting price increase in beginning of the crisis, by most would be seen as an absolute joke..
I think this mindset is caused by unique 2008 massive Crash. As if this should repeat from now on, on any Crisis.

I think this is a good video for this thread, if it's a good time to buy property:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCzfLX_meDU

2008 was an altogether different kind of crisis , there is no credit crunch right now, quite the opposite , central banks have not only opened the taps , they have cut the pipe and flooded the place with cash

fliball123

AdamD wrote: »

I doubt that at any given moment in time a serious number of houses on the market are probate, given how difficult it is to repossess a house in Ireland.

Just to further this and how I see the market currently.

The supply vs demand issue.

First off people are saying the market is gone crazy. The market is reacting to supply vs demand that is all. If you have a lack of a certain thing that a lot of people want it price goes up

SUPPLY

I have been saying this since jan/Feb of last year. I was probably the first one on here saying prices wouldn't go down (or down marginally) as the supply side was being decimated by the amount of new builds coming on stream was down in 2020 and even do they reached their target of 21k this is about a 1/3 of the housed built in 2017/2018 and we had 20% less new commencements in 2020. Then I added that myhome had seen a big reduction in properties available and this continued for the whole year. To where now its about 50% less now. Also if you ring up about a house on my home I reckon a good % are either sold or sale agreed further shortening supply.

Now anyone who is in their "family home" and if they fall on hard times, the banks just don't have the legal power to repossess. There has been a huge increase of left leaning entities who are shouting loudest in this country. It is documented that some people who defaulted on their mortgage after the last crash in 2008 are still in their "family home" and not paying anything. So anyone thinking if we do go wallop to the wall that there will be a huge increase in supply coming this way are going to be left waiting.

Now on the rental front small landlords have been leaving the sector in their droves for the last 5 years and the reason being the law is stacked firmly with the tenant I couldn't believe it when I heard of stories of some tenants staying rent free for 2/3/4 years without paying anything and all legal apparently. So now add in that the majority of rentals are now owned by REIT/Vultures who can afford to leave rentals empty to keep prices high or have been thrown to the government who looks after them for 20/25 years. So anyone looking for these properties to be coming on stream will once again be left waiting.

Now add in we have a serious shortage of build related skilled workers not to mention not even getting out of the blocks this year for builiding.

DEMAND

Now on the demand side, people have been putting off buying for years. Mr McWilliams was saying bubble in 2017 when there was none (we could well be in one in 2021), then big bad brexit put the skids on some people who were going to buy and then Corona stepped forward into the breach. There is years of pent up demand out there from people who just thought it safer to wait.

Throw in REITS and Vultures and the state competing in the market as well with unlimited resources. Its not hard to see prices are not going down for the remainder of this year (at least)

Also the tail end of 2020 seen the largest increase in mortgage approvals in the history of recording this data. Now some will say not all of these took out a mortgage or had mortgage approval from several banks I would counter this argument and say that caveat would of existed in all of the other years of recording data so it is an apt statistic to use when gauging demand.

Other factors
The new immigration law which will cut down refugees stay here from 8 years to 4 months before becoming legal. We are going to see an explosion of people coming in here and they all need some where to live.

Brexit has now thrown Ireland into the forefront as being the only native English speaking country in the EU - This will draw a lot of foreign immigrants that would of gone to England and will now use Ireland as their base.

We have the highest amount of savings ever in Irish bank accounts since this data started being recorded.

I understand a lot of people wanting a house and wanting prices to go down but for every one of you out there like this there is probably 2 people who have a house and wanting prices to go up.

Also the government new shared equity scheme will push prices up

Final point anyone buying selling I wish you the best, do whats right for you and I have put the facts out as I see them but DO NOT LISTEN TO ANYONE ON HERE AS NO ONE HAS A CLUE AND THAT INCLUDES ME. ONLY SOMEONE FROM THE FUTURE CAN TELL YOU HOW THINGS WILL PAN OUT

Mad_maxx

JimmyVik wrote: »

State interference drives property prices up.
State interference drives rent up.

State might do well to read those two sentences.

No , If the left has told us anything , its that the solution to government interference is always more government interference

fliball123

Pussyhands wrote: »

What's happening if you see a property go up on Daft but it's gone within a week but then weeks and weeks later there's still nothing on the PPR.

I saw a lovely spot I'm sure it was pre Christmas and it was taken down within a week. I don't see it anywhere on PPR.

It can take months for a sold property to go onto the PPR

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

If you bother to read my post I was referring to the last 5-7 years when there was a focus on building commercial and not residential. But sidestep again.

We have access to the largest labour market in the EU and if we were serious about solving a perceived housing supply issue we would find a place for the workers required to live so that we can solve the issue.

Multinationals and indigenous industries can source labour skills that may be lacking here without too much bother

coolbeans

standardg60 wrote: »

That's a very quick climbdown from 'total rubbish' to 'one element'.
I understand you may have skin in the game but the only entities who publicy promote the 'other benefits' of locating here are the MNCs themselves. No one knows what they're promoting behind closed doors, which makes me question the Government's stance. Do you remember Dell?

I have no idea why you wouldn't address/make sense of my second point.
An imbalance of supply versus demand doesn't create a skewed market?

I have no skin in the game and to insinuate as such is playing the man rather than the ball which in my opinion betrays your weak and hyperbolic argument. I own a house in the UK but nothing here.

Your argument is simply, binary, catastrophic and poorly thought out and my response doesn't represent a climbdown at all, quite the opposite with more detail and nuance which has flown way over your head. That's fine, you won't be moved from your 'Ireland has nothing but tax to offer argument' but it's nonsense as I've shown and ridiculously negative.

The second point you made regarding the bubble shows to me that you don't understand basic markets so it's hard to engage with that. I can't help you if you can't understand why more people/households than available houses does not represent a bubble but a basic demand/supply equation. I'm not talking about apartments in Dublin btw.

Dell was low value manufacturing and is not comparable to pharma/biotech etc.

timmyntc

Mad_maxx wrote: »

No , If the left has told us anything , its that the solution to government interference is always more government interference

The solution is that the government adds supply rather than adds demand - the government should commission its own social housing builds rather than buy from the private market.

Still technically a "left" political idea, but this would help to deflate prices

woejus

fliball123 wrote: »

It can take months for a sold property to go onto the PPR

There's also reasons to list a house "for sale" other than wanting to actually sell it.

Estate disputes, divorces, trying to show the bank you're making best effort to liquidate your assets and other bolloxology. Price discovery can be a big part of this.

Infuriating stuff.

fliball123

woejus wrote: »

There's also reasons to list a house "for sale" other than wanting to actually sell it.

Estate disputes, divorces, trying to show the bank you're making best effort to liquidate your assets and other bolloxology. Price discovery can be a big part of this.

Infuriating stuff.

You cant expect a seller to say why they are selling thats nuts you give you hand away....So the seller goes I am selling because I am in financial trouble and need money asap. surely buyers will have the upper hand then. What advantage does that give the seller?

Browney7

fliball123 wrote: »

You cant expect a seller to say why they are selling thats nuts you give you hand away....So the seller goes I am selling because I am in financial trouble and need money asap. surely buyers will have the upper hand then. What advantage does that give the seller?

He/she was saying that there's a portion of ads on daft purely with the intention of not actually selling the property and just advertising it to keep banks or lawyers happy - ie the property isn't actually for "sale" and there to waste people's time. No idea what % this is

woejus

fliball123 wrote: »

You cant expect a seller to say why they are selling thats nuts you give you hand away....So the seller goes I am selling because I am in financial trouble and need money asap. surely buyers will have the upper hand then. What advantage does that give the seller?

I've had experience of seeing properties up for sale, make an offer, house never sells, no PPR. In one case EA told me it was part of an interfamily dispute, they got listing fees, we had our time wasted.

In this kind of market you could tell someone you need the cash to feed your crack habit and you'd still have offers out the door!