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Racing Uncertainties

[Deleted User]

I am starting this with the intention of posting selections for Horse Racing.

Nowt is certain in this game. Hence the title.

One to start off with.

Wolverhampton 7.15 Zafaranah

Mrs Barclay's Mare had a return to form last week when 2nd at the course over the extended mile. The horse has won before at this time of year, and is twice a Course and Distance winner off ratings higher than what she's assessed at tonight.

Available to back at 15/2 and bigger, I give it an each way chance here. Drawn 9 of 11 aint ideal, but I had no say in the box allocation.

I wish myself the best of luck with my thread, and hope to provide many winners and big priced placers.

That's all for now.

Gluck

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[Deleted User]

1.00 Haydock Mrs Barnes 8/1 win

Won over 2 1/2m last time out, and was staying on well at the end. Bit of value here.

2.37 Haydock Glen Vine 11/1 e/w

Looks a bit overpriced. 4/1 in the probable SP under racecard. Am hoping that three miles is more to his liking than the shorter trips he's tackled to date. Hard to make a case for anything in this race, so why not back the topweight?

[Deleted User]

2.45 Hereford Amanofhisword 5/1 ew , Hoot At Midnight 10/1 ew

Possibly the first time this year that firm is in the going description (Good - Good to Firm in Places is the declared going) and I think these two can go well on the ground. No chase starts to date for Amanofhisword, and just the one from Hoot At Midnight, who go to post in this Novices' Handicap Chase. Both of them seem to act on the going; going by a few bits and pieces of form over hurdles, and, I don't see much good ground form from the rest.

Maybe a speculative RF too

[Deleted User]

12.30 Haydock Kensington Art 10/3 win
Little bit of value here with this one.

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

12.30 Haydock Kensington Art 10/3 win
Little bit of value here with this one.

No good

A late pick.. Spent about 20 mins looking at that race yesterday, trying to make a case for the (losing

) selection, but couldn't.. Saw that the going had changed since then, and was closer to good, and that might give him a chance, but alas, not his day today.....

[Deleted User]

24/03

Running P & L -3.8pts

Invested 26pts. 2.10 Billygwyn too nr done ew , 2.45 Amanofhisword nr done ew , 3.12 Seaston Spirit nr done ew = 6pts. 20pts in play.

Returns:

1.30 Informateur (done win) wins @ 5/1 returning 6pts
2.02 Ey Up Rocky (done win @ 10/3) wins with a 20p rule 4 returning 3.6pts

Invested 20pts - returns 9.6pts

Loss for the day 10.4pts

Running invested total - 1,622 pts

Total P & L -14.2pts

[Deleted User]

5.25 Sedgefield Mabela 15/2 ew

Dan Skelton's mare has drifted out to a competitive price here, and is capable of giving a good account in this Class 5 Handicap Hurdle. She normally competes in Class 4s, and has 2 wins in that grade; which account for her 2 wins from 16 'over the sticks' outings thus far. She has to put a poor last run behind her; where she was pulled up over a slightly longer trip on soft ground a couple of weeks back. That was in a Class 5. She definitely has form in the book that suggests that 2 1/2 miles on good ground, and carrying a big weight in a low grade shouldn't be a problem. Harry is back on top today, and that is a plus. Bridget; who rides this mare about as often as Harry, had the ride lto.. Harry Skelton's in great form too.

[Deleted User]

25/03

Running P & L -14.2pts

Invested 2pts

Returns - none

Invested 2pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 2pts

Running invested total - 1,624 pts

Total P & L -16.2pts

[Deleted User]

27/03

Put your analogs forward if yis are hittin the scratcher at a sensible time of the night :pac: Clox is going forward at 01.00am on da 28th.

Have picked out a good few for tomorrow.. A lot of the flat ones will be having their first run for quite a while, and the ground at Donny and Kelso is currently described as good, and good to soft respectively; and hope it stays that way, as have based my picks on those being the going conditions come racetime. Haven't looked at Newbury or Naaavan

, as it was tricky enough to pick from the other four meetings.

Some of the prices are shorter than I'd like, but most are fair enough.. Once I pick them I like to back them.. That's how I do..

But without further ado, here they be:

All EW

Doncaster

1.25 Black Hill Storm 20/1
Dave Evans usually does alright in these sort of races. Maybe do a reverse forecast with his other one. No form to go on as all these are unraced 2yr olds.

2.35 Spiorad 22/1
A mile on good ground should suit. Don't think he'll be far away.

3.10 Grove Ferry 16/1
Right good chance. Trip and ground should be perfect. Lto winner.

4.55 Engles Rock 20/1
Will hopefully be doing her best work late on.

5.25 Violette Szabo 22/1
Yet to win. Absence to overcome, but can go close if on a going day.

Wolverhampton

4.25
Blu Boy 12/1
Is a good price. Lightly raced.

6.00 Bravo Faisal 12/1
A replication of his fifth over C & D last August would give him a big chance.

7.30 Kapono 12/1 NAP
Hope he's the best horse in the race. Trip might be a bit sharp though.

8.00 Maid Millie 10/1
Might come with a late rattle. Jockey's 7lb claim should help.
Ancient Astronaut 9/1
2nd over C & D in Feb. Will draw a line thru latest run.

8.30 Manumission 10/3
Tackles 6fs for the first time for current trainer. Been staying on well over 5. Lightly raced.

Kelso

12.30 Leostar 7/2
Won on good to soft over C & D in a Class 5 in Nov. Going up the weights. Class 4 should suit; back on goodish ground - been running on soft/heavy/higher grades since that November win.

1.35 Dandy Dan 11/2
C & D winner on good.
Duc De Grissay 6/1
Has a squeak.
Crixus's Escape 9/1
Been running on mainly soft/heavy through his career. Am hoping the good ground should see him stay this trip. High enough in the weights. Maybe first-time tonguestrap will help.

2.05
IK Brunei 8/1
Seems well enough handicapped if he can stay. 2nd last run reads well, when behind some good horses.
Kaizer 20/1 NB
Young horse. Expect him to be bang there. His run at the course in September looks okay in terms of him going well in this.
Sultans Pride 13/2
Won lto. Going up in weights. Was staying on when winning over 3m at Donc.

2.40 Hasanabad 5/1
Fifth hurdles outing. Tendency to run keen in first three. Came 4th at Sandown lto on soft. Was held up then, and seemed to settle better. Seems to be a few who like to get on with it, so hopefully selection can settle behind the leaders.

Kempton

2.15 Soto Sizzler 14/1
Long layoff, but has ran well before over C & D without winning.
Kendergarten Cop 50/1
Seems to go well at the course over shorter. Hopefully can stay this 1m 3f trip here.
Am hoping one of these can manage a place in a race where most of the others have stronger claims.

4.30 Broken Rifle 13/2
Should be good for a place at least.
Angels Roc 7/1
Lightly raced, a contender.
Both the above have good chances.
Reeceltic 40/1
Pure punt. 1st time visor offers some encouragement.

5.05 Htilominlo 16/1
Yet to win. Dropping down the weights. 1st time in this Class 6 grade. Some decent form at this trip on other courses.
Ivaquestion 9/1
Won over a furlong less at the course in September. Can get involved.

Gluck to Satdee puntas

[Deleted User]

Not much joy today.

Tomorrow: Doncaster

4.15 Finoah 100/1 win

[Deleted User]

1.20 Donc Ugo Gregory 22/1 ew

[Deleted User]

27/03

Running P & L -16.2pts

Invested 52pts. 1.35 Crixus's Escape nr ew , 2.05 Sultan's Pride nr ew , 5.05 Htilominlo nr ew . 46pts in play.

Returns:

12.30 Leostar (done ew @ 7/2) wins at a quarter the odds with a *5p rule 4 returning 6.1pts
4.30 Reeceltic (done ew @ 40/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 9pts
2.35 Spiorad (done ew) places at 25/1 at a fifth the odds returning 6pts
4.55 Engles Rock (done ew) places at 28/1 at a fifth the odds returning 6.6pts
7.30 Kapono (done ew @ 12/1) places at a fifth the odds with a 10p rule 4 returning 3.1pts
8.00 Ancient Astronaut (done ew @ 9/1) places at a quarter the odds returning 3.2pts

Invested 46pts - returns 34pts

Loss for the day 12pts

Running invested total - 1,670 pts

Total P & L -28.2pts

[Deleted User]

^^^^^^^^^^

* Re that 12.30; I thought '5p rule 4s' were no more... Guess I was wrong about that... Maybe with some bookies

[Deleted User]

4.50 Doncaster Fortamour win 8/1

[Deleted User]

28/03

Running P & L -28.2pts

Invested 4pts. 4.50 Fortamour nr win. 3pts in play.

Returns - none.

Invested 3pts - returns 0pts.

Loss for the day 3pts

Running invested total - 1,673 pts

Total P & L -31.2pts

[Deleted User]

7.40 Wolves

Crazy Luck 33/1 ew

This one is a hunch, and is about twice the price I'd be happy to take on one with this sort of profile. Caught my eye because it's towards the top of the handicap with poor form figures. This filly got a high enough rating when winning a 2yr old Maiden Auction Fillies' Stakes last August. She's ran 4 times since then; with the best two runs coming on the turf off the back of that win, and she ran respectably enough in both. Latest two runs; which were on the AW at Kempton, were admittedly poor. All of them 4 runs were over 6fs. She has never tackled the tapeta surface, and I'm hoping as it's that bit slower, that today's 6f trip will suit. Drawn wide in box ten of twelve may not be a bad thing, as it may force her to make running. Having a 174 day layoff is the main negative imo. Don't think we've seen the best of her yet, and she has been ridden every which way in her 6 outings - held up, raced wide, chasing leaders, and has led as well. If she's fit and well I'm hoping today could be her day.

[Deleted User]

2.15 Fak Carole's Templer 50/1 ew

An Amy Murphy inmate, but it's 10lb conditional Eddy Edge that takes the ride; which is of interest because Jack Quinlan has a few rides here, and he has ridden the horse on five of his 6 starts to date. That's enough to make me think he has some sort of a chance, but just wants as little weight as possible. The cheekpieces are out for the first time. Formwise, he's got little in the book, but he did run well for a long way over a similar trip and going last November. That run was after an absence. Most of his few runs have either been in bumpers, or on soft ground. Had a run last month, so fitness should be okay.

[Deleted User]

3.00 Warwick Pour Une Raison 14/1 ew

In a race where the topweight and fav Everything For You should take all the beating, I'm hoping the selection can run him close. First time visor, and a marathon 3m 2f hurdles' trip on good ground should bring out the best in him. He was staying on in one of his 2 PtPs on similar going over 3 miles, when finishing 3rd. Has been racing mainly on soft ground, and finished 7th lto a couple of weeks ago over 3ms at Taunton on the aforementioned soft going. He did see some support that day, just like he did the time before, when finishing third at Exeter, over a similar trip; also on soft. Has ran about three times on good/good to firm, but they were at around 2 1/2 miles, but it's the 26fs distance, along with the good going that sways me towards Nick Mitchell's runner in this.

[Deleted User]

2.25 Warwick Agent Valdez 13/2 win

Topweight, lightly raced, a winner over fences at around this trip. Good ground a bit of an unknown. Top three in the betting worth taking on methinks (2/1 , 10/3 , 4/1 gen.).. EW price, but a win or come nowhere proposition for me. 13/2 just about a fair price. 7lb conditional Liam Harrison gets the leg-up for the 2nd time - PJ Brennan rode him in his last 4 outings.

[Deleted User]

1.00 Newcastle Cheeky Ches 33/1 ew , Lord Buttons 100/1 ew

Can give them both a squeak here. Top 3 in the betting at around 2/1 - 9/4 , have a bit to prove, and a few question marks. I think Rebecca Menzies' Check My Pulse has the most solid credentials of the market principals, but think he'll find at least one too good. I think Geronimo wants further for the McCain/Hughes duo, and I don't know what to make of Fantastic Rock. Yep - 2 places will do me here :pac:

Cheeky Ches has his first run over hurdles after 4 on the NH flat, with the first of them pretty decent, when he finished 3rd. That was on good ground.
Lord Buttons has had two runs over the sticks, as well as two bumpers under his belt. Last run was okay until he faded late over further. Up against it, but has a chance at the odds available.

Gluck

[Deleted User]

Gonna oppose this 1/5 yoke at Warwick.. Not for P & L,, but moderate horses and jockeys.. 3/1.

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

Gonna oppose this 1/5 yoke at Warwick.. Not for P & L,, but moderate horses and jockeys.. 3/1.

No joy - fav won like a 1/8 shot should...

6.10 Wolves Heer We Go Again 7/1 win

Don't know why he's drifted, but on form he's got a good chance. Was 7/2 early on..... Dave Evans; ya couldn't be up to that fella, but worth a go regardless.

[Deleted User]

5.40 Wolves Steelriver 3/1 win, Celerity 100/1 win

Think Steelriver is the most capable of running his race here in this seller, and will give the 95 race maiden Celerity a squeak.

[Deleted User]

6.40 Wol Songkran 5/1 win

Looks the most value here... Has a recent run, and can go well on the surface

[Deleted User]

Johnny G is 70 today. Happy Birthday Johnny

Has one runner today in the 7.10.. I doubt he's at Wolverhampton; though I could be wrong.

His horse Marshall Plan is trading at 11/10 in this 3 runner affair for owner/operation Godolphin.

MJ has one for the Sheikh, and the other is Charlie Appleby's Bandinelli; also for Godolphin.

Not very interesting as a betting heat, and hard to make a solid case on form for either of the three, but Johnny's is the only one of the three with a recent run.

No bet, but if I had to pick one it'd be the drifting 2nd fav Golden flame - who like the jolly is by Golden Horn - at 2/1. Bandinelli is available at 5/2.

[Deleted User]

8.10 Wolves Bankawi 11/1 ew

Has drifted out to a decent price. Last three runs were all over C & D, and she wasn't far away in either. Don't think much of the 5lb Jockey Joanna Mason - who rode her on all those three occasions - who rides Roller for Daniel Loughnane tonight. Speaking of jockeys; the 7lb claimer William Pyle - who I don't know much about - takes the ride on the selection. I think he's had about 18 rides thus far, and yet to get that 'W'. Still; on form, Bankawi should go close here, if she runs up to her best form. Selection is drawn lowest of all in the one box, so hopefully the jockey can consolidate a decent early position.

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

7.40 Wolves

Crazy Luck 33/1 ew

This one is a hunch, and is about twice the price I'd be happy to take on one with this sort of profile. Caught my eye because it's towards the top of the handicap with poor form figures. This filly got a high enough rating when winning a 2yr old Maiden Auction Fillies' Stakes last August. She's ran 4 times since then; with the best two runs coming on the turf off the back of that win, and she ran respectably enough in both. Latest two runs; which were on the AW at Kempton, were admittedly poor. All of them 4 runs were over 6fs. She has never tackled the tapeta surface, and I'm hoping as it's that bit slower, that today's 6f trip will suit. Drawn wide in box ten of twelve may not be a bad thing, as it may force her to make running. Having a 174 day layoff is the main negative imo. Don't think we've seen the best of her yet, and she has been ridden every which way in her 6 outings - held up, raced wide, chasing leaders, and has led as well. If she's fit and well I'm hoping today could be her day.

Hit the front coming round the home bend, and briefly looked like winning; only to fade tamely in the last 1/2 furlong, and ended up 6th, or so

[Deleted User]

30/03

Running P & L -31.2pts

Invested 17pts. 1.00 Cheeky Ches ew nr. 15pts in play.

Returns:

3.00 Pour Une Raison (done ew @ 14/1) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 18.8pts

Invested 15pts - returns 18.8pts

Profit for the day 3.8pts

Running invested total - 1,688 pts

Total P & L -27.4pts

[Deleted User]

01/04/2021

April Fools' Day selections...

1.45 Wetherby Poucor 5/1 win

2m 4f (ish) on good ground a concern, and no surprise if he were tailed off, but has been dropping down the weights recently, and this seller shouldn't take a lot of winning. I think the 2nd fav Paricolor (13/8) , and the twelve yr old 11/8 jolly Chieftain's Choice are definitely opposable. The champ Brian Hughes takes the ride for the first time; so that's a plus.

2.50 Jampot Eddie 40/1 ew

Only his second run. First was in a soft ground bumper. Tackles 3m on good ground here. Breeding suggests he might want a trip.

3.20 Two picks in this one - Largy Mouth 10/1 ew,

Wasn't beaten far lto over a similar trip. Good price.

3.20 Diamond Fort 11/2 ew,

Not an overly generous price, but, on the pick of his form, he can give a good account here. Brian Hughes on top as well for the first time.

The 13/8 jolly JP's Roxboro Road hasn't raced over the smaller obstacles since October '19, when trained in Ireland; so, despite his having won his last two races; they were chases, so I'll consider him opposable.

3.50 Bafana Blue 8/1 ew

C & D winner on good. Dropping down the weights. First go back in a Class 4 in almost 2 years. Been running in Class 3s mainly since. A good price. I think the 2/1 jolly Sigurd is way underpriced, and think he wants softer ground. I don't think he'll be in first three. A race I don't want to see Brian Hughes win anyway :P

4.22 2 picks here as well.

Maison D'or 12/1 ew

Runs in a Class 5 today. Mainly tackled Class 4s. Most of his races when he tackled today's trip (3m) on good, he's usually given a good account. Might be a bit overpriced too.

Dubh Des Champs 18/1 ew

Fairly inconsistent, puts in an odd good display. Trainer Phil Kirby red hot atm.
Good price for an ew bet though, and the top 3 in the betting don't look any great shakes.

1.55 Ffos Las Wax And Wane 50/1 ew

Pure punt. Lightly raced. Be a joke if he won this on known form, but I'm taking a chance that his 'shrewd' trainer has a day planned for him, plus he has a decent strike rate at the course does Tim.

Gluck

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

01/04/2021

April Fools' Day selections...

1.45 Wetherby Poucor 5/1 win

2m 4f (ish) on good ground a concern, and no surprise if he were tailed off, but has been dropping down the weights recently, and this seller shouldn't take a lot of winning. I think the 2nd fav Paricolor (13/8) , and the twelve yr old 11/8 jolly Chieftain's Choice are definitely opposable. The champ Brian Hughes takes the ride for the first time; so that's a plus.

2.50 Jampot Eddie 40/1 ew

Only his second run. First was in a soft ground bumper. Tackles 3m on good ground here. Breeding suggests he might want a trip.

3.20 Two picks in this one - Largy Mouth 10/1 ew,

Wasn't beaten far lto over a similar trip. Good price.

3.20 Diamond Fort 11/2 ew,

Not an overly generous price, but, on the pick of his form, he can give a good account here. Brian Hughes on top as well for the first time.

The 13/8 jolly JP's Roxboro Road hasn't raced over the smaller obstacles since October '19, when trained in Ireland; so, despite his having won his last two races; they were chases, so I'll consider him opposable.

3.50 Bafana Blue 8/1 ew

C & D winner on good. Dropping down the weights. First go back in a Class 4 in almost 2 years. Been running in Class 3s mainly since. A good price. I think the 2/1 jolly Sigurd is way underpriced, and think he wants softer ground. I don't think he'll be in first three. A race I don't want to see Brian Hughes win anyway :P

4.22 2 picks here as well.

Maison D'or 12/1 ew

Runs in a Class 5 today. Mainly tackled Class 4s. Most of his races when he tackled today's trip (3m) on good, he's usually given a good account. Might be a bit overpriced too.

Dubh Des Champs 18/1 ew

Fairly inconsistent, puts in an odd good display. Trainer Phil Kirby red hot atm.
Good price for an ew bet though, and the top 3 in the betting don't look any great shakes.

1.55 Ffos Las Wax And Wane 50/1 ew

Pure punt. Lightly raced. Be a joke if he won this on known form, but I'm taking a chance that his 'shrewd' trainer has a day planned for him, plus he has a decent strike rate at the course does Tim.

Gluck

Wax And Wane a NR in the 1.55.

Ffos Las

4.07 Billygwyn Too 33/1 ew
Put him up last week, but he was a nr. Has only had a few runs. Was off for about three years, until he ran at Exeter last month. That was his first run for Christian Williams. Was previously with J W Tudor, and had 2 Bumper runs for him; the first of which he won, albeit on softer ground than he faces today. That would give him a chance here, if he's back to full fitness. The horse has changed stables, but still has the same owner. Connor Brace rode him in his two bumper runs, and interestingly Jack Tudor - who takes the mount today - rode him on his latest outing. Interesting because he shares the same surname as the horse's former trainer - maybe he's his son.

4.37 Bob Mahler 5/1 ew
A short price for a race like this, but he can go well here over the 3m 3f 208yds marathon trip over the larger obstacles with a good round of jumping.

[Deleted User]

7.20 Chelmsford Normandy Blue 50/1 ew

A pure punt this one. A long layoff. About the only thing going for him is his low draw in stall 2. I don't see a lot of pace on here, and if the jockey Cam Hardie; who's riding him for the first time, can possibly try and dictate matters from the front, he can be given a chance in this race, where MJ has the 1/2 jolly, but that one is drawn wide, and up in trip. If selection does manage to win, it'll surely be in a very slow time