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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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[Deleted User]

Even if you ignore land/location/market/desirability etc, how many houses in Ballsbridge would even have just materials and labour worth under 300k? Not many I would guess.

fliball123

Interested Observer wrote: »

Even if you ignore land/location/market/desirability etc, how many houses in Ballsbridge would even have just materials and labour worth under 300k? Not many I would guess.

Throw in profit margins and taxes and I think it would be hard to build anywhere for that price

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Throw in profit margins and taxes and I think it would be hard to build anywhere for that price

Well, they're currently offering new build A-rated 3 bed semi-detached houses in Enniscorty for €205k.

Are A-rated houses in Wexford that much different to A-rated houses in Dublin?

Link to MyHome.ie here: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/an-glasan-greenville-enniscorthy-co-wexford/4364806

MacronvFrugals

Interested Observer wrote: »

Even if you ignore land/location/market/desirability etc, how many houses in Ballsbridge would even have just materials and labour worth under 300k? Not many I would guess.

One of the guys on here was looking at a gaf for a million quid in a new development with plastic windows....

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, they're currently offering new build A-rated 3 bed semi-detached houses in Enniscorty for €205k.

Are A-rated houses in Wexford that much different to A-rated houses in Dublin?

Link to MyHome.ie here: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/an-glasan-greenville-enniscorthy-co-wexford/4364806

Yes they are. Not sure how many times you need to be retold this.

They are very different, one is in a capital city, the other in Wexford.

PropQueries

TheSheriff wrote: »

Yes they are. Not sure how many times you need to be retold this.

They are very different, one is in a capital city, the other in Wexford.

With remote working, that pricing model won't hold for much longer IMO

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, they're currently offering new build A-rated 3 bed semi-detached houses in Enniscorty for €205k.

Are A-rated houses in Wexford that much different to A-rated houses in Dublin?

Link to MyHome.ie here: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/an-glasan-greenville-enniscorthy-co-wexford/4364806

I said it would be hard didnt say impossible. Have you any examples in Dublin

givyjoe

PropQueries wrote: »

With remote working, that pricing model won't hold for much longer IMO

Remote working has been a thing for a year now. While some people have moved back home, there's been far from an exodus. People still want to live in Dublin it seems. When everything re-opens, I'd rather be in Dublin than not.

jill_valentine

givyjoe wrote: »

Remote working has been a thing for a year now. While some people have moved back home, there's been far from an exodus. People still want to live in Dublin it seems. When everything re-opens, I'd rather be in Dublin than not.

Nobody's moving anywhere atm, so I'm not sure that's a useful reflection.

I'd love to stay living in Dublin, just can't afford to. None of the amenities are worth having to deal with landlords forever. I'd rather own a pallet floating in the middle of the Atlantic than carry on handing this much money to somebody every year for the privilege of a mouldy shoebox here.

Villa05

Mad_maxx wrote:

i was referring to the long term leasing of very expensive property by institutional property players , leasing out 800 k property to local authorities is a rare event but one the left insist on as part of the social mix model they espouse

From following this thread its apparent that the left are amongst the ardent critics of this

givyjoe

jill_valentine wrote: »

Nobody's moving anywhere atm, so I'm not sure that's a useful reflection.

I'd love to stay living in Dublin, just can't afford to. None of the amenities are worth having to deal with landlords forever. I'd rather own a pallet floating in the middle of the Atlantic than carry on handing this much money to somebody every year for the privilege of a mouldy shoebox here.

That's not at all true. People are, just not as many. Initially a number of houses we viewed in the last year were folks moving home. That's all but stopped in any of the houses we've been looking at in the last 6 months. People also initially thought lots of businesses were going to go fully remote, I don't think that's at all likely and folks will be left having to commute back up 2/3 days a week.

yagan

We've all got anecdotes presaging what happens next and in my family I have a sibling who's worked their entire life in Dublin, family raised and now his work has told him he can see out his remaining five or so years to retirement WFH.

The plan is to sell up when the restrictions are no longer needed and move to the south coast, they've already identified their target town. The point is my brother had planned to move upon retirement, but WFH has bought him years out of the Dublin grind and he's delighted at the prospect.

He said his office size has been halved with WFH now part of the mix and many of his colleagues have similar plans, so until this market is open again it's hard to grasp what effect WFH will have, but it cannot be dismissed as factor.

Subutai

givyjoe wrote: »

Remote working has been a thing for a year now. While some people have moved back home, there's been far from an exodus. People still want to live in Dublin it seems. When everything re-opens, I'd rather be in Dublin than not.

There is a big difference between having a coherent remote working arrangement and working remotely during a pandemic with the prospect of needing to come back (we'll be back in the office by July; no wait, September; eh, January; um, try July again).

I wouldn't leave the city now, that's too major a decision to make without some sight of what remote working will look like out to the future. However, when my workplace introduces a remote working policy (which it looks likely to do) then we will look at moving. Whether that's out to kildare/meath/wicklow if a two day presence in Dublin is required, or further out if we end up with hubs.

Ozark707

yagan wrote: »

We've all got anecdotes presaging what happens next and in my family I have a sibling who's worked their entire life in Dublin, family raised and now his work has told him he can see out his remaining five or so years to retirement WFH.

The plan is to sell up when the restrictions are no longer needed and move to the south coast, they've already identified their target town. The point is my brother had planned to move upon retirement, but WFH has bought him years out of the Dublin grind and he's delighted at the prospect.

He said his half his office size has been halved with WFH now part of the mix and many of his colleagues have similar plans, so until this market is open again it's hard to grasp what effect WFH will have, but it cannot be dismissed as factor.

Yes where I am working now 2 people are looking at the prospect of moving out. They said 2 days a week is doable for commute and the early indications is that they will be able to do this. Fantastic for those who can and want to avail of it. Will be great for places now outside of Dublin to get more people into them.

givyjoe

Subutai wrote: »

There is a big difference between having a coherent remote working arrangement and working remotely during a pandemic with the prospect of needing to come back (we'll be back in the office by July; no wait, September; eh, January; um, try July again).

I wouldn't leave the city now, that's too major a decision to make without some sight of what remote working will look like out to the future. However, when my workplace introduces a remote working policy (which it looks likely to do) then we will look at moving. Whether that's out to kildare/meath/wicklow if a two day presence in Dublin is required, or further out if we end up with hubs.

The vast majority of people will not be fully remote. Id wager 1 day office based is also highly improbably because well, what benefit does that give. Hubs as you say are also not likely for the vast majority of businesses, for obvious reasons, namely cost and scale. What matters for the property market is decisions the majority are going to make. Anyway, the point im making is essentially the same thing, a lot of people initially foolishly made long terms decisions without knowing what long term working arrangements they were going to have. I don't think we'll see a mass exodus, even with 2/3 days WFH.

yagan

givyjoe wrote: »

I don't think we'll see a mass exodus, even with 2/3 days WFH.

I agree, but for some businesses a new cost saving option has been firmly established, and I can well imagine that those who can will factor such an option into their work and lifestyle balance.

The market at the moment is gummed up, but with the international pension funds no longer snapping up developments before they're finished I reckon a turn is inevitable

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

With remote working, that pricing model won't hold for much longer IMO

It absolutely will, because once again as you have been told, not everyone wants to live in Wexford.

Villa05

TheSheriff wrote:

It absolutely will, because once again as you have been told, not everyone wants to live in Wexford.

Sunny South East has nice ring to it.

If you take out many of the potential ftb from one market and disperse them amongst multiple markets, what is likely to happen the market they have been removed from.

Figures would suggest this has been happening for some time. WFH can only accelerate the trend

K.Hawksworth

After having been working from home every day for the last year, I personally cannot wait to return to my office. May continue 1 or 2 days a week from home, but full-time WFH? I would lose my mind.

PropQueries

Ozark707 wrote: »

Yes where I am working now 2 people are looking at the prospect of moving out. They said 2 days a week is doable for commute and the early indications is that they will be able to do this. Fantastic for those who can and want to avail of it. Will be great for places now outside of Dublin to get more people into them.

And how long will it take them to convince their employer than one day a month would suffice to be in the office?

As I've said before, if someone can WFH 3 days a week, they can WFH 5 days. Many employer's will "test" the whole 2 days in office and 3 days WFH for a few months, but gradually and then very quickly move to full time WFH IMO

The whole 2 days in office and 3 days WFH is basically just to show that they're taken all employees into account for staff morale reasons etc.

Eventually, it will be mostly full time WFH if the employee really can WFH 3 days post-covid IMO

Villa05

In addition
There is an assumption that people are coupling up to buy
Latest trends show coupling up happens much later in life. Would single people people be tempted away from Dublin rents to go for commuter ownership?

Pussyhands

We won't see a mass exodus.

First of all, there's plenty of Dubs. They're not going to be moving from the city to rural Offaly.

I'm from rural Ireland and I'm looking to buy in a city. I prefer the city lifestyle. The services are just so much better. I can go to the airport by bus in 30 minutes even during the middle of the night. Concerts, football games just a short drive/train away.

cnocbui

donnaille wrote: »

Is that +10%, 20%, 50%, 100%? etc.

20% over.

Ush1

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

One of the guys on here was looking at a gaf for a million quid in a new development with plastic windows....

What should the windows be made from?

yagan

TheSheriff wrote: »

It absolutely will, because once again as you have been told, not everyone wants to live in Wexford.

Not every commuter wants to commute, but that's what we ended up with with our profit driven planning regime.

Cyrus

Ush1 wrote: »

What should the windows be made from?

wood, clad with aluminium ideally, if you are paying a premium price.

Ush1

Cyrus wrote: »

wood, clad with aluminium ideally, if you are paying a premium price.

Wood and aluminum are inferior to upvc.

Cyrus

Ush1 wrote: »

Wood and aluminum are inferior to upvc.

No idea if they are or not but they cost more and look better.

Ush1

Cyrus wrote: »

No idea if they are or not but they cost more and look better.

You'd be doing well to tell the difference between an aluminum and upvc window unless you're touching the window.

Getting wooden windows would be madness to me in what is a very damp climate we have, and I honestly don't think they look better.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Low interest rates don't impact spending when people don't borrow because they're worried about how they will survive in their pensioner years i.e. they actually end up saving more.

It's a bit paradoxical, but current low interest rates signal to the consumer that the economy is still in trouble and consumers actually pull back spending rather then increase it.

A significant rise in interest rates may actually encourage consumer spending IMO

Based on your paradoxical opinion we shouldn’t see inflation as customers pull back spending and save instead as this all leads to a low velocity of money.