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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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Pussyhands

We won't see a mass exodus.

First of all, there's plenty of Dubs. They're not going to be moving from the city to rural Offaly.

I'm from rural Ireland and I'm looking to buy in a city. I prefer the city lifestyle. The services are just so much better. I can go to the airport by bus in 30 minutes even during the middle of the night. Concerts, football games just a short drive/train away.

Villa05

In addition
There is an assumption that people are coupling up to buy
Latest trends show coupling up happens much later in life. Would single people people be tempted away from Dublin rents to go for commuter ownership?

PropQueries

Ozark707 wrote: »

Yes where I am working now 2 people are looking at the prospect of moving out. They said 2 days a week is doable for commute and the early indications is that they will be able to do this. Fantastic for those who can and want to avail of it. Will be great for places now outside of Dublin to get more people into them.

And how long will it take them to convince their employer than one day a month would suffice to be in the office?

As I've said before, if someone can WFH 3 days a week, they can WFH 5 days. Many employer's will "test" the whole 2 days in office and 3 days WFH for a few months, but gradually and then very quickly move to full time WFH IMO

The whole 2 days in office and 3 days WFH is basically just to show that they're taken all employees into account for staff morale reasons etc.

Eventually, it will be mostly full time WFH if the employee really can WFH 3 days post-covid IMO

K.Hawksworth

After having been working from home every day for the last year, I personally cannot wait to return to my office. May continue 1 or 2 days a week from home, but full-time WFH? I would lose my mind.

Villa05

TheSheriff wrote:

It absolutely will, because once again as you have been told, not everyone wants to live in Wexford.

Sunny South East has nice ring to it.

If you take out many of the potential ftb from one market and disperse them amongst multiple markets, what is likely to happen the market they have been removed from.

Figures would suggest this has been happening for some time. WFH can only accelerate the trend

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

With remote working, that pricing model won't hold for much longer IMO

It absolutely will, because once again as you have been told, not everyone wants to live in Wexford.

yagan

givyjoe wrote: »

I don't think we'll see a mass exodus, even with 2/3 days WFH.

I agree, but for some businesses a new cost saving option has been firmly established, and I can well imagine that those who can will factor such an option into their work and lifestyle balance.

The market at the moment is gummed up, but with the international pension funds no longer snapping up developments before they're finished I reckon a turn is inevitable

givyjoe

Subutai wrote: »

There is a big difference between having a coherent remote working arrangement and working remotely during a pandemic with the prospect of needing to come back (we'll be back in the office by July; no wait, September; eh, January; um, try July again).

I wouldn't leave the city now, that's too major a decision to make without some sight of what remote working will look like out to the future. However, when my workplace introduces a remote working policy (which it looks likely to do) then we will look at moving. Whether that's out to kildare/meath/wicklow if a two day presence in Dublin is required, or further out if we end up with hubs.

The vast majority of people will not be fully remote. Id wager 1 day office based is also highly improbably because well, what benefit does that give. Hubs as you say are also not likely for the vast majority of businesses, for obvious reasons, namely cost and scale. What matters for the property market is decisions the majority are going to make. Anyway, the point im making is essentially the same thing, a lot of people initially foolishly made long terms decisions without knowing what long term working arrangements they were going to have. I don't think we'll see a mass exodus, even with 2/3 days WFH.

Ozark707

yagan wrote: »

We've all got anecdotes presaging what happens next and in my family I have a sibling who's worked their entire life in Dublin, family raised and now his work has told him he can see out his remaining five or so years to retirement WFH.

The plan is to sell up when the restrictions are no longer needed and move to the south coast, they've already identified their target town. The point is my brother had planned to move upon retirement, but WFH has bought him years out of the Dublin grind and he's delighted at the prospect.

He said his half his office size has been halved with WFH now part of the mix and many of his colleagues have similar plans, so until this market is open again it's hard to grasp what effect WFH will have, but it cannot be dismissed as factor.

Yes where I am working now 2 people are looking at the prospect of moving out. They said 2 days a week is doable for commute and the early indications is that they will be able to do this. Fantastic for those who can and want to avail of it. Will be great for places now outside of Dublin to get more people into them.

Subutai

givyjoe wrote: »

Remote working has been a thing for a year now. While some people have moved back home, there's been far from an exodus. People still want to live in Dublin it seems. When everything re-opens, I'd rather be in Dublin than not.

There is a big difference between having a coherent remote working arrangement and working remotely during a pandemic with the prospect of needing to come back (we'll be back in the office by July; no wait, September; eh, January; um, try July again).

I wouldn't leave the city now, that's too major a decision to make without some sight of what remote working will look like out to the future. However, when my workplace introduces a remote working policy (which it looks likely to do) then we will look at moving. Whether that's out to kildare/meath/wicklow if a two day presence in Dublin is required, or further out if we end up with hubs.

yagan

We've all got anecdotes presaging what happens next and in my family I have a sibling who's worked their entire life in Dublin, family raised and now his work has told him he can see out his remaining five or so years to retirement WFH.

The plan is to sell up when the restrictions are no longer needed and move to the south coast, they've already identified their target town. The point is my brother had planned to move upon retirement, but WFH has bought him years out of the Dublin grind and he's delighted at the prospect.

He said his office size has been halved with WFH now part of the mix and many of his colleagues have similar plans, so until this market is open again it's hard to grasp what effect WFH will have, but it cannot be dismissed as factor.

givyjoe

jill_valentine wrote: »

Nobody's moving anywhere atm, so I'm not sure that's a useful reflection.

I'd love to stay living in Dublin, just can't afford to. None of the amenities are worth having to deal with landlords forever. I'd rather own a pallet floating in the middle of the Atlantic than carry on handing this much money to somebody every year for the privilege of a mouldy shoebox here.

That's not at all true. People are, just not as many. Initially a number of houses we viewed in the last year were folks moving home. That's all but stopped in any of the houses we've been looking at in the last 6 months. People also initially thought lots of businesses were going to go fully remote, I don't think that's at all likely and folks will be left having to commute back up 2/3 days a week.

Villa05

Mad_maxx wrote:

i was referring to the long term leasing of very expensive property by institutional property players , leasing out 800 k property to local authorities is a rare event but one the left insist on as part of the social mix model they espouse

From following this thread its apparent that the left are amongst the ardent critics of this

jill_valentine

givyjoe wrote: »

Remote working has been a thing for a year now. While some people have moved back home, there's been far from an exodus. People still want to live in Dublin it seems. When everything re-opens, I'd rather be in Dublin than not.

Nobody's moving anywhere atm, so I'm not sure that's a useful reflection.

I'd love to stay living in Dublin, just can't afford to. None of the amenities are worth having to deal with landlords forever. I'd rather own a pallet floating in the middle of the Atlantic than carry on handing this much money to somebody every year for the privilege of a mouldy shoebox here.

givyjoe

PropQueries wrote: »

With remote working, that pricing model won't hold for much longer IMO

Remote working has been a thing for a year now. While some people have moved back home, there's been far from an exodus. People still want to live in Dublin it seems. When everything re-opens, I'd rather be in Dublin than not.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, they're currently offering new build A-rated 3 bed semi-detached houses in Enniscorty for €205k.

Are A-rated houses in Wexford that much different to A-rated houses in Dublin?

Link to MyHome.ie here: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/an-glasan-greenville-enniscorthy-co-wexford/4364806

I said it would be hard didnt say impossible. Have you any examples in Dublin

PropQueries

TheSheriff wrote: »

Yes they are. Not sure how many times you need to be retold this.

They are very different, one is in a capital city, the other in Wexford.

With remote working, that pricing model won't hold for much longer IMO

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, they're currently offering new build A-rated 3 bed semi-detached houses in Enniscorty for €205k.

Are A-rated houses in Wexford that much different to A-rated houses in Dublin?

Link to MyHome.ie here: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/an-glasan-greenville-enniscorthy-co-wexford/4364806

Yes they are. Not sure how many times you need to be retold this.

They are very different, one is in a capital city, the other in Wexford.

MacronvFrugals

Interested Observer wrote: »

Even if you ignore land/location/market/desirability etc, how many houses in Ballsbridge would even have just materials and labour worth under 300k? Not many I would guess.

One of the guys on here was looking at a gaf for a million quid in a new development with plastic windows....

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Throw in profit margins and taxes and I think it would be hard to build anywhere for that price

Well, they're currently offering new build A-rated 3 bed semi-detached houses in Enniscorty for €205k.

Are A-rated houses in Wexford that much different to A-rated houses in Dublin?

Link to MyHome.ie here: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/an-glasan-greenville-enniscorthy-co-wexford/4364806

fliball123

Interested Observer wrote: »

Even if you ignore land/location/market/desirability etc, how many houses in Ballsbridge would even have just materials and labour worth under 300k? Not many I would guess.

Throw in profit margins and taxes and I think it would be hard to build anywhere for that price

[Deleted User]

Even if you ignore land/location/market/desirability etc, how many houses in Ballsbridge would even have just materials and labour worth under 300k? Not many I would guess.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

I don't see how a house in Ballsbridge can cost more than €300k. I also don't see how my house is worth what it currently is.

If I was currently selling my house, great. But I'm not and if my neighbour sells her house and then the property market goes back to fundamentals, I end up paying for the difference IMO

Yes, my neighbour will walk away with her current windfall, but I will be technically paying for it in the very near future IMO

This is a bizarre viewpoint. Why pick such an arbitrary figure? How did you arrive at the conclusion that houses in Ballsbridge are worth 300k and nothing more?

Everything is relative. Ballsbridge is highly desirable so it has high prices. That's how the market works.

fliball123

dontmindme wrote: »

You're seriously going to try and use some near height of the bubble figure as some sort of valid reference point?

Well its a valid indicator of how high prices could currently go

Mad_maxx

dontmindme wrote: »

You're seriously going to try and use some near height of the bubble figure as some sort of valid reference point?

why not ?

the assertion that every market today is expensive is incorrect

dontmindme

Mad_maxx wrote: »

then you are viewing life as how you would like it to be rather than how it is

we have very strict building regulations in this country , building houses is expensive inherently nowadays no matter what David Mc Williams or SF says etc

there are more property markets today than in 2006 in terms of price variance , in 2006 , houses in the likes of Roscommon or Offaly were about 50% higher than today if not more , with covid and more remote working , lower cost home choices are now opening up , its certainly not the solution to all our problems but might be the one silver lining post covid

You're seriously going to try and use some near height of the bubble figure as some sort of valid reference point?

Mad_maxx

PropQueries wrote: »

I don't see how a house in Ballsbridge can cost more than €300k. I also don't see how my house is worth what it currently is.

If I was currently selling my house, great. But I'm not and if my neighbour sells her house and then the property market goes back to fundamentals, I end up paying for the difference IMO

Yes, my neighbour will walk away with her current windfall, but I will be technically paying for it in the very near future IMO

thats philosophy , not economic reality , even in 2012 , you could not buy a house in Ballsbridge for 300 k

Zenify

Call me naive, but I don't think German pensioners can sway the ECB. The ECB is independent or close to it. They will have to be seen as being focused on inflation.

Also, if they even flirt with the idea of focusing on employment and growing the economy we would have serious consequences. It would be worse for everyone. No investors would buy bonds as inflation would eat away their money. Government debt costs would go up anyway.

The ECB will focus on inflation, they will say lots of different things in the media about letting things go a little lose for a while. Their job is stability and they will say whatever is necessary to achieve that. But don't be mistaken if inflation goes above 3% (which is looking possible for the fist time in a decade) rates will rise. They will rise to whatever is needed to keep inflation near 2%. In the same way they did "Whatever it takes" in the past with loose money they will also do "whatever it takes" with tight money if it is needed.

People need to start using figures when talking about inflation. High inflation to me is above 2%. People here arguing about high inflation may actually be fighting over the same figure. High inflation is not 10% in today's climate.

Hubertj

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/new-rural-ireland-plan-says-20-of-public-sector-staff-to-work-remotely-by-end-of-2021-1.4522468

I hope this is implemented properly as it is a great idea. It has the potential to make a difference to work life balance. It will be interesting to see how it develops over the coming years. Opportunity for more rural towns to attract people and enterprises. Also people moving from cities to rural towns will bring a bit of civilisation and sophistication which is no harm 😂

Mad_maxx

Villa05 wrote: »

It appears to be happening on an industrial scale in Dublin.
Doubling of Hap payments in a year
Doubling of homeless services budget in a year

Are these micro issues

i was referring to the long term leasing of very expensive property by institutional property players , leasing out 800 k property to local authorities is a rare event but one the left insist on as part of the social mix model they espouse