cnocbui wrote: » In Oz, a property in inner Sydney went for $1.4 M over reserve a few days ago.
fliball123 wrote: » Well what I would say is the govenment had stopped borrowing in 2018 and 2019 and turned a surplus for 2019 (the rainy day fund) so the deficit had been bridged. Now they are borrowing for covid and this has added another 20 billion on top so I think its this money that will flow into what the govenment spend on and that will include the government buying houses competing with your bog standard Ann and Barry along side renting property from REITS and Vultures and any other private landlord to give to those who cant afford to pay rent I think that may be inflating a bubble now. The money may have been there pre 2021 but property prices up until about September of last year would bear out that there was no bubble as prices jumped up and down and not just up. Its hard to know when your in a bubble its always hindsight when it bursts.
LasersGoPewPew wrote: » The ECB won't allow interest rates to rise given the state of European economies. Employment in 'high' earning sectors like financial services, IT, legal, health, engineering won't be affected. People working in these sectors will continue to support the market. Supply is low, demand is high so a collapse won't happen. It's not like the end of the celtic tiger where there as an oversupply and a credit crunch. People are not getting 100% mortgages like they were in the naughtys.
LasersGoPewPew wrote: . Employment in 'high' earning sectors like financial services, IT, legal, health, engineering won't be affected. People working in these sectors will continue to support the market. Supply is low, demand is high so a collapse won't happen. It's not like the end of the celtic tiger.
The_Conductor wrote: » The ECB doesn't give a rats arse about employment- they have one metric they look at- and that is the consumer inflation index. If/when it exceeds 2%- they will raise rates. Also- whether we like it or not- the ECB dances to Germany's tune- what Germany wants, they pretty much get. At the moment German pensioners are hurting badly from the interest rate regime. This has been highlighted several times (even in Bild last weekend). It beggars belief that that the wishes of German pensioners are not going to feature prominently in what the ECB does or doesn't do- esp. given the federal elections coming up in Germany later this year- and how terrified the CDU are after their recent election failures. Ireland is a minnow- while we have a voice, we only have a little voice, and our wishes at the table are right at the bottom of the list. Anyone who imagines otherwise is delusional. We are going to be dancing to the tune of the pensioners of Germany- whether we like it, or not.
donnaille wrote: » Is that +10%, 20%, 50%, 100%? etc.
schmittel wrote: » Exactly. Which is why your certainty that we have not been in a bubble pre 2021 is suspect at best. IMO.
Villa05 wrote: » Most of the people employed in the sectors you mention won't be paying up to 800k for a 2 bed apartment which is what is currently happening for social and affordable. In theory what is happening is worse than the Celtic tiger, as price for everyone is being set by what the top 15/20% earn. It's akin to a policy that everybody's car must be a shiny new mid range BMW In the Celtic tiger there were multiple markets at multiple price points and let's face it after the Celtic tiger the vast majority of buyers came out the other side without too much damage Those that cannot afford to buy are left to the rental market to be fleeced The state is the biggest bankroller of all this madness and has in its power the necessary ingredients to solve it, but won't and instead makes it worse. Can you remember what happened the entities that bankrolled the Celtic tiger. A crash is inevitable, just a matter of when
Mad_maxx wrote: » at a time when the EU project is as shaky as it is , German pensioners and savers are going to have to suck it up , they are not going to drive the bus on this one there will be no Trichet like moves at the ECB for a long time yet
Mad_maxx wrote: » there are multiple markets today , outside the Dublin market ( and even particular Dublin micro markets ) , houses are still well below pre 2008 , circa 2006 , houses were crazy prices everywhere you can still buy a three bed semi in Limerick city for under 300 k and thats is a very good area , most of Co Meath the same and parts of Kildare even
PropQueries wrote: » I think you're mistaking our debt problems as a eurozone wide debt problem. The vast majority of eurozone members have no real debt problem and as a poster said this morning, it's german etc. pensioners that are suffering from this low interest rate environment. Interest rates really are only going one way (they're less than zero, so they really can only go one way) and the only unknown is when and by how much. But, it's not going to be more than 2 years away IMO
Mad_maxx wrote: there are multiple markets today , outside the Dublin market ( and even particular Dublin micro markets ) , houses are still well below pre 2008 , circa 2006 , houses were crazy prices everywhere
Mad_maxx wrote: » Japan has battled low inflation for three decades , growth in the EU ( or most of it bar Germany in terms of large countries ) has been slow for two decades , Brexit means that the EU family needs to unite more and not ignore the needs of countries smaller than Germany Gemans need to spend more , lack of spending by Germans has long been a problem within the context of the broader EU
PropQueries wrote: » Do you not think €300k is rather expensive for a house on a low population density island off an island off europe? Even a €300k price tag on any home in e.g. Ballsbridge appears expensive to me IMO
Villa05 wrote: » So there is no need to pay 800k for a 2 bed social housing unit or lease one for up to 3k+ per month on an inflation linked long term lease.
Mad_maxx wrote: » then you are viewing life as how you would like it to be rather than how it is we have very strict building regulations in this country , building houses is expensive inherently nowadays no matter what David Mc Williams or SF says etc there are more property markets today than in 2006 in terms of price variance , in 2006 , houses in the likes of Roscommon or Offaly were about 50% higher than today if not more , with covid and more remote working , lower cost home choices are now opening up , its certainly not the solution to all our problems but might be the one silver lining post covid
PropQueries wrote: » You're right about covid opening up the housing markets outside Dublin. In relation to looking at it as how I would like it to be. Not really, if I truly thought the housing market was based on sound fundamentals. But, at the moment, I really don't see those fundamentals there. And my only real concern is that if I'm right, it's my home, my income and my pension that they will come looking to help pay for the clean up IMO
Mad_maxx wrote: those are micro issues and even within the context of institutional money leasing property to local authorities , not at all typical
Mad_maxx wrote: » you said a house in Ballsbridge should not cost 300 k ?
Villa05 wrote: » It appears to be happening on an industrial scale in Dublin. Doubling of Hap payments in a year Doubling of homeless services budget in a year Are these micro issues
PropQueries wrote: » I don't see how a house in Ballsbridge can cost more than €300k. I also don't see how my house is worth what it currently is. If I was currently selling my house, great. But I'm not and if my neighbour sells her house and then the property market goes back to fundamentals, I end up paying for the difference IMO Yes, my neighbour will walk away with her current windfall, but I will be technically paying for it in the very near future IMO
Mad_maxx wrote: » then you are viewing life as how you would like it to be rather than how it is we have very strict building regulations in this country , building houses is expensive inherently nowadays no matter what David Mc Williams or SF says etcthere are more property markets today than in 2006 in terms of price variance , in 2006 , houses in the likes of Roscommon or Offaly were about 50% higher than today if not more , with covid and more remote working , lower cost home choices are now opening up , its certainly not the solution to all our problems but might be the one silver lining post covid
dontmindme wrote: » You're seriously going to try and use some near height of the bubble figure as some sort of valid reference point?
