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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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Comments

MacronvFrugals

Marius34 wrote: »

1) Hotel is not same as Long term rentals.
2) This is an old news, and you trust to much in those numbers provided by some journalists.
3) We are in Covid lockdown times, whatever vacancy numbers is now in city center, it will go down ones lockdowns are over.

“Some journalists” - Killian Woods is probably the best reporter on housing in the country!

Marius34

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

“Some journalists” - Killian Woods is probably the best reporter on housing in the country!

That's your opinion. I don't have any opinion about him, nor did I saw him awarded.
It still very old article on back than very new development, and it says they simply tried to find numbers of RTB, not really checking if their was vacant on long term at that time.
There is no surprise that new builds especially during Covid has high vacancy. But the same buildings are very unlikely to stay 50% unoccupied, ones restriction removed.

Pelezico

Big article in Indo today says house prices will increase due to fewer builds and large savings.

Covid is certainly cruel with an adjacent article suggesting that 25% of people are really struggling.

Wanderer78

Pelezico wrote:

Big article in Indo today says house prices will increase due to fewer builds and large savings.

McWilliams recommending people not to bother buying now, due to these conditions, he's probably right to, brutal time for buyers

tombliboo83

Wanderer78 wrote: »

McWilliams recommending people not to bother buying now, due to these conditions, he's probably right to, brutal time for buyers

Very well for McWilliams but rent is killing people right now, so much so that it is far cheaper for many to pay over the odds if your mortgage is 25% cheaper than rent.

Villa05

Wanderer78 wrote:

McWilliams recommending people not to bother buying now, due to these conditions, he's probably right to, brutal time for buyers

tombliboo83 wrote:

Very well for McWilliams but rent is killing people right now, so much so that it is far cheaper for many to pay over the odds if your mortgage is 25% cheaper than rent.

That's why they call it the rental trap. Every good bubble has a firm stick to beat you into submission.

I'd agree with McWilliams advise, it's an absolutely awful time to be buying. Could the wfh cohort protect themselves somewhat by temporarily renting in a lower rent area.

Definitely make sure your registered to vote as this is a 90 to 99% government created mess

If only there was a way to unite all renters and citizens who believe these issues are of paramount importance. This would create a large voting bloc that could challenge these policies

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

That's why they call it the rental trap. Every good bubble has a firm stick to beat you into submission.

I'd agree with McWilliams advise, it's an absolutely awful time to be buying. Could the wfh cohort protect themselves somewhat by temporarily renting in a lower rent area.

Definitely make sure your registered to vote as this is a 90 to 99% government created mess

If only there was a way to unite all renters and citizens who believe these issues are of paramount importance. This would create a large voting bloc that could challenge these policies

Yeah but people need to understand if they do take the risk of buying then its very hard for the banks to take the property off them if they fall on hard times....Hardly the same when your renting if you stop paying the landlord gives you notice and your gone ...

Cuddlesworth

Pelezico wrote: »

Big article in Indo today says house prices will increase due to fewer builds and large savings.

Covid is certainly cruel with an adjacent article suggesting that 25% of people are really struggling.

Covid has hit the lower income earners primarily, particularly anybody involved in entertainment or hospitality. The tax figures for 2020 show this, with very little drop in income tax for the number of people put on the Covid payment scheme.

As far as I can tell, everybody else for the most part has just been saving money, mostly from reduced commuting and entertainment expenses. A few people I know have dropped the second car, finally realising how much money it was costing them.

JimmyVik

fliball123 wrote: »

Yeah but people need to understand if they do take the risk of buying then its very hard for the banks to take the property off them if they fall on hard times....Hardly the same when your renting if you stop paying the landlord gives you notice and your gone ...

Not for about 2 years if you dont feel like moving

Villa05

fliball123 wrote:

Yeah but people need to understand if they do take the risk of buying then its very hard for the banks to take the property off them if they fall on hard times....Hardly the same when your renting if you stop paying the landlord give you notice and your gone ...

This further disadvantages renters and taxpayers which furthers the requirement for them to have a voice and input in the determining of housing policy

fliball123

JimmyVik wrote: »

Not for about 2 years if you dont feel like moving

I think the most is 8 months if your there for a long period of time and of course there are no evictions during covid but once this is lifted I reckon tenants who acted the b0ll0x during covid will be given their marching orders

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

This further disadvantages renters and taxpayers which furthers the requirement for them to have a voice and input in the determining of housing policy

Tax payers yes renters ehhh well I think the current system favours a lot of tenants its very hard to evict someone straight away even if they are a nightmare tenant these days. There needs to be a complete overhaul that helps good tenants and landlords and stops giving advantages to those on both sides who try to take advantage

JimmyVik

fliball123 wrote: »

I think the most is 8 months if your there for a long period of time and of course there are no evictions during covid but once this is lifted I reckon tenants who acted the b0ll0x during covid will be given their marching orders

I know several landlords who are well over two years now trying to get tenants out who dont want to leave.
I know covid is an issue now, but even before covide people were taking 2 years plus to evict tenants who would not comply with the notice to leave.

fliball123

JimmyVik wrote: »

I know several landlords who are well over two years now trying to get tenants out who dont want to leave.
I know covid is an issue now, but even before covide people were taking 2 years plus to evict tenants who would not comply with the notice to leave.

I thought the most they could stay was for 224 and thats only if the tenant is in the house 8+ years . Is there some other way (besides covid) of someone staying in a rented property for longer?

https://www.threshold.ie/advice/ending-a-tenancy/how-your-landlord-may-end-your-tenancy/

JimmyVik

fliball123 wrote: »

I thought the most they could stay was for 224 and thats only if the tenant is in the house 8+ years . Is there some other way (besides covid) of someone staying in a rented property for longer?

https://www.threshold.ie/advice/ending-a-tenancy/how-your-landlord-may-end-your-tenancy/

Thats the most they can stay before you have to go to the RTB.
After that they can stay a couple of years before a landlord can finally get rid of them.
They pay no penalty for this service

The landlord does.
If SF have there way, they'll be allowed to stay forever.

Someone buying a house in another thread yesterday cant proceed because the tenants wont move out of the house.

[Deleted User]

fliball123 wrote: »

I thought the most they could stay was for 224 and thats only if the tenant is in the house 8+ years . Is there some other way (besides covid) of someone staying in a rented property for longer?

https://www.threshold.ie/advice/ending-a-tenancy/how-your-landlord-may-end-your-tenancy/

yes, that's the time laid out i the legislation. Doesn't mean that a tenant will leave on the 224th day. It's still hard to get them out after that if they've no intention of leaving - you're not allowed to just change the locks.

Villa05

fliball123 wrote:

Tax payers yes renters ehhh well I think the current system favours a lot of tenants its very hard to evict someone who is a nightmare tenant these days. There needs to be a complete overhaul that helps tenants and landlords and stops giving advantages to those on both sides who try to take advantage

Bad tenants and bad mortgages effect all tenants.
It is in the interest of all tenants that all renters comply with rental agreements otherwise good ones get charged a premium to subsidise losses for bad ones. It's about common sense rather than giving one party an advantage over another
Bad mortgages keep supply off the market and allow some people live for free while renters endure double digit inflation in their most expensive outgoing

All state sponsored bad practice which hurts almost everyone to reward failure

timmyntc

fliball123 wrote: »

I thought the most they could stay was for 224 and thats only if the tenant is in the house 8+ years . Is there some other way (besides covid) of someone staying in a rented property for longer?

https://www.threshold.ie/advice/ending-a-tenancy/how-your-landlord-may-end-your-tenancy/

If they refuse to leave, you have to go to the RTB and then a court order to get sheriff involved to evict IIRC?

Can take up to 2 years in some cases.

Wanderer78

tombliboo83 wrote: »

Very well for McWilliams but rent is killing people right now, so much so that it is far cheaper for many to pay over the odds if your mortgage is 25% cheaper than rent.

mcwilliams argument is sellers are sitting tight, so only sh1te houses are on the market, so buyers are bidding for sh1te houses, he reckons sit tight for another year or two, until building comes back on stream, makes a lot of sense, but i do appreciate its a sh1te situation to be in

fliball123

JimmyVik wrote: »

Thats the most they can stay before you have to go to the RTB.
After that they can stay a couple of years before a landlord can finally get rid of them.
They pay no penalty for this service The landlord does.
If SF have there way, they'll be allowed to stay forever.

Someone buying a house in another thread yesterday cant proceed because the tenants wont move out of the house.

Thats absolutely bonkers so now we have a situation in the country that you cant evict tenants and banks cant repossess houses..and people think there will be a glut of property after covid goes ... I dont think so

K.Hawksworth

Pelezico wrote: »

Big article in Indo today says house prices will increase due to fewer builds and large savings.

Covid is certainly cruel with an adjacent article suggesting that 25% of people are really struggling.

Grim reading, especially this part:

An original estimate for 26,000 housing completions this year has been cut to just 15,000 – around a quarter less than were completed during last year’s lockdowns.
"Even that might be on the optimistic side,” Prof McQuinn said.

These aren't vested interests (like EAs) trying to hype the market either. Looks a certainty now that prices are going to keep rising over the next 1-2 years.

Cuddlesworth

fliball123 wrote: »

Is there some other way (besides covid) of someone staying in a rented property for longer?

Yeah, you don't leave. If and when it gets around to the court case(1+ year), do a sob story, pay a small amount, promise to pay more, the process starts again. Depending on the judge, or judges, and the naviety of the landlord, you can can go years in some cases.

fliball123

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Yeah, you don't leave. If and when it gets around to the court case(1+ year), do a sob story, pay a small amount, promise to pay more, the process starts again. Depending on the judge, or judges, and the naviety of the landlord, you can can go years in some cases.

Just out of curiosity for those on here thinking once covid is gone there seems to be some notion that we will be swimming in properties for sale. Where is this glut of properties going to come from.?

JimmyVik

fliball123 wrote: »

Thats absolutely bonkers so now we have a situation in the country that you cant evict tenants and banks cant repossess houses..and people think there will be a glut of property after covid goes ... I dont think so

And now you know why landlords are leaving.

There was another thread here s few days ago where the RTB were not allowing the landlord to evict a tenant for being anti-social. The next door neighbor brought the landlord to the RTB and the RTB fined the landlord.

So there we have the RTB on the one hand preventing him evicting in order do do something about the problem. And on the other hand fining him for doing something about them.

And the kicker is. If a tenant stays for two years, wrecks the place and pays no rent. They landlord cant even get the damages or back rent back.

Cyrus

Wanderer78 wrote: »

mcwilliams argument is sellers are sitting tight, so only sh1te houses are on the market, so buyers are bidding for sh1te houses, he reckons sit tight for another year or two, until building comes back on stream, makes a lot of sense, but i do appreciate its a sh1te situation to be in

there are some amazing properties on the market but they are very expensive.

timmyntc

For the people treating housing as an asset rather than a home, there is no immediate need to sell
Like any speculative asset, you aim to ride the growth to the top and sell at the peak.

However once that peak is hit and prices begin to fall again, expect a lot of people to frantically sell and a lot more volume to hit the market.

K.Hawksworth

timmyntc wrote: »

For the people treating housing as an asset rather than a home, there is no immediate need to sell
Like any speculative asset, you aim to ride the growth to the top and sell at the peak.

However once that peak is hit and prices begin to fall again, expect a lot of people to frantically sell and a lot more volume to hit the market.

Are there that many people holding property as a speculative asset, (and not their primary residence) - enough numbers to flood the market and cause any significant impact to prices? I don't think so. A lot of small landlords (< 5 properties) have exited the market en masse over the last 10 years. They can't compete with the tenant favored legislation changes and massive REITs who can offset tax liabilities etc who are in for the long-term (foreign pension fund investments and so on)

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

Just out of curiosity for those on here thinking once covid is gone there seems to be some notion that we will be swimming in properties for sale. Where is this glut of properties going to come from.?

Regression toward the mean.

timmyntc

K.Hawksworth wrote: »

Are there that many people holding property as a speculative asset, (and not their primary residence) - enough numbers to flood the market and cause any significant impact to prices? I don't think so. A lot of small landlords (< 5 properties) have exited the market en masse over the last 10 years. They can't compete with the tenant favored legislation changes and massive REITs who can offset tax liabilities etc who are in for the long-term (foreign pension fund investments and so on)

If theres any truth to the stories of institutional investors buying up properties and leaving them vacant, you would think they are treating them as speculative assets - as buying apartments and houses en masse only to not rent them out doesnt make much financial sense.

Mic 1972

timmyntc wrote: »

For the people treating housing as an asset rather than a home, there is no immediate need to sell
Like any speculative asset, you aim to ride the growth to the top and sell at the peak.

However once that peak is hit and prices begin to fall again, expect a lot of people to frantically sell and a lot more volume to hit the market.

According to some that peak was hit in 2018