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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Seth Brundle

This is the fourteenth incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread.

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CelticRambler

Just saw that. Nothing symbolises Brexit more than "grow your own veg" and "let's talk about the weather" :pac:

beerguts

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

UK steel industry looking for handouts from the magic money tree.
EU has gone shields up on dumping. Despite the deal there are still quotas on how much steel the UK can export to the EU.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56479298

I have to admit to the shame of looking through the Dailymail website at least once a day and this news has not been given any major print lines as far as I can see. I have looked up the issue since I read your post and this screams to me of a ponzi scheme to book profits through the consultancy. I am probably wrong on this but this will be a huge business failure that will unravel over the next year.

awec

https://www.politico.eu/article/italian-authorities-discover-29m-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-doses-la-stampa/

The Italians have found nearly 30 million (!!!) doses of the AstraZenica vaccine stored in Italy that appear to have been earmarked for UK export but stopped due to the export restrictions the EU put in place. This is surely a huge thing that's not going to help relations?

opinionated3

awec wrote: »

https://www.politico.eu/article/italian-authorities-discover-29m-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-doses-la-stampa/

The Italians have found nearly 30 million (!!!) doses of the AstraZenica vaccine stored in Italy that appear to have been earmarked for UK export but stopped due to the export restrictions the EU put in place. This is surely a huge thing that's not going to help relations?

Makes you wonder exactly what type of underhanded deal Johnson and his cohorts struck with disastrazeneca...

ambro25

awec wrote: »

https://www.politico.eu/article/italian-authorities-discover-29m-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-doses-la-stampa/

The Italians have found nearly 30 million (!!!) doses of the AstraZenica vaccine stored in Italy that appear to have been earmarked for UK export but stopped due to the export restrictions the EU put in place. This is surely a huge thing that's not going to help relations?

There's a lot of chatter about this on Twitter right now, much of which (by balanced/respectable posters, including quoting sources) suggesting that aspects of this story do not add up, and that verification should be sought/awaited first, before opining one way or the other.

I'd argue that EU27-UK relations are unlikely to improve any time soon regardless of whether this story is true or not, because trust is mostly lost already. There's a good opinion piece about this by Rafael Behr in today's Guardian, worth a read.

beerguts

awec wrote: »

https://www.politico.eu/article/italian-authorities-discover-29m-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-doses-la-stampa/

The Italians have found nearly 30 million (!!!) doses of the AstraZenica vaccine stored in Italy that appear to have been earmarked for UK export but stopped due to the export restrictions the EU put in place. This is surely a huge thing that's not going to help relations?

Jesus that is the smoking gun as far as the UK government duplicity that they are self sufficient in manufacturing the jabs.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40249802.html
This article states that we are the leading location for UK financial companies opening EU sites. Does anyone know of any recent announcements.

ambro25

beerguts wrote: »

(...)
This article states that we are the leading location for UK financial companies opening EU sites. Does anyone know of any recent announcements.

It's still not a good corporate look to dump on Brexitland, so these announcements are still few and far between, barely scratching the surface of the real scale of Brexodus.

A recent article in ? (might have been Politico) based on factual research by a consulting firm specializing in advice to JP corporates, outlined that the UK had lost a ma-ooo-ssive number of Japanese EU bases (of which, many financial/banking ones) to Ireland, Germany, France and Spain since 2016, with barely a ripple in medias. The figures were truly eye-popping.

The "Digby Jones index" which I mentioned and linked recently, is a good aggregating repository for these discrete announcements, when they are made.

So far, as I recall, Ireland has done extremely well (and best out of EU27) for banking and back office, Luxembourg has done extremely well for asset management and insurance, Spain (Barcelona esp.) has done surprisingly well on account of beneficial local tax laws, and France (Paris) and Germany (Frankfurt) have done OK (all things being equal). But that is based on incomplete data/picture, for reasons above.

And keep in mind that it's just finance: The Netherlands seem to be cleaning up with non-financial relocations.

J Mysterio

ambro25 wrote: »

There's a lot of chatter about this on Twitter right now, much of which (by balanced/respectable posters, including quoting sources) suggesting that aspects of this story do not add up, and that verification should be sought/awaited first, before opining one way or the other.

I'd argue that EU27-UK relations are unlikely to improve any time soon regardless of whether this story is true or not, because trust is mostly lost already. There's a good opinion piece about this by Rafael Behr in today's Guardian, worth a read.

It's a good article, though it loses direction a little toward the end.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/24/trust-britain-covid-vaccine-compromise

yagan

The problem is the UK set out their vaccine rollout as another Brexit battleground for domestic chest thumping.

So the problems so far are listed are thus.

1. They promoted the AstraZeneca as the British/Oxford vaccine, when in fact AstraZeneca is a joint UK/Swedish company. The UK promoted their vaccine rollout as being independent of the EU when in fact the very opposite is the case, the UK being almost entirely dependent on EU production facilities.

2. AstraZeneca have a horrible track record in the USA for fraudulent misrepresentation of their products; they had to pay over half a billion dollars for a law suit in 2010 and over a $100 million just three years ago for a law suit in one state alone. The AstraZeneca guidance on their test results and delivery schedule has been strewn with errors, delays and corrections, yesterdays slapdown by the FDA is just another reminder.

3. The UK chose to prolong the second shots against the advice of Pfizer

Efficacy in elderly people seems excellent after two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. A longer gap between doses may improve the long term immune response, as seen with AstraZeneca’s vaccine. However, as many people in priority subgroups have not yet received a second dose, any substantial waning of protection during the 12 week interval will create problems as the UK starts to reopen.

This is of particular concern for older adults. The phase II trial of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine reported a reduced antibody response among participants aged 65-85 compared with those under 55.5 Recent data from Public Health England showed efficacy against symptomatic disease was 57% among adults over 80 after a single dose, increasing to 85% after the second dose

While the UK is ahead on total shots given if the 12 week gap extends to 18 weeks due to an EU export freeze the risk of a persistent spread may elongate their lockdowns while other fully vaccinated EU states see herd immunity take hold.

4. By opting to not take part in the EU vaccine programme the UK has put itself outside the priority zone as those ironically fighting the UK strain. The UK can cite contract obligations but like with the USA the EU has the duty to prioritise reversing the current renewed outbreaks.

[Deleted User]

Arse to the UK. Arse to the trade deal.

I've had enough of British colleagues lecturing me on vaccines.

PeadarCo

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Arse to the UK. Arse to the trade deal.

I've had enough of British colleagues lecturing me on vaccines.

But that's the issue with Covid and the vaccines. The Vaccine situation is the first big test of EU UK relations post Brexit. The UK is not a member of the club which makes it a lot easier for the EU to block exports to the UK compared to a situation where the UK was still a member. Its one of the costs of Brexit. The EUs job is to protect its members which doesn't include the UK.

A dispute like this does not help the UK when it comes to getting a deal on stuff like financial services and other things that have not been included in the trade deal. A toxic debate about Covid vaccines won't help the UK and to a degree the EU down the line when these issues crop up.

ancapailldorcha

beerguts wrote: »

Jesus that is the smoking gun as far as the UK government duplicity that they are self sufficient in manufacturing the jabs.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40249802.html
This article states that we are the leading location for UK financial companies opening EU sites. Does anyone know of any recent announcements.

I daresay that such announcements would be drowned out by Covid.

If businesses are leaving or shifting the bulk of their operations to the continent and/or Ireland then I'd say the reasons are being kept quiet. Criticizing Brexit offers them no benefits given that their warnings were unheeded and even trampled upon by the current PM.

I think we're looking at a long term steady trickling out of businesses and people toward the EU rather than a short and striking exodus. I myself am currently applying for one of the few IP law jobs I've seen in the Benelux area where fluency in Dutch is merely an advantage as opposed to its usual status of being a prerequisite.

awec

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I daresay that such announcements would be drowned out by Covid.

If businesses are leaving or shifting the bulk of their operations to the continent and/or Ireland then I'd say the reasons are being kept quiet. Criticizing Brexit offers them no benefits given that their warnings were unheeded and even trampled upon by the current PM.

I think we're looking at a long term steady trickling out of businesses and people toward the EU rather than a short and striking exodus. I myself am currently applying for one of the few IP law jobs I've seen in the Benelux area where fluency in Dutch is merely an advantage as opposed to its usual status of being a prerequisite.

You'll notice that in a lot of the job losses / factory closure media pieces the businesses in question can be quick to say "not caused by Brexit", because it's more politically convenient for them to pretend it's not a factor than it is for them to admit that it is.

[Deleted User]

No one wins.

If Trump were still imposing the same bans as Biden and Johnson, "vaccine nationalism" would be the biggest debate in the world right now.

It's not.

Instead we're left with the richest bloc in the world exporting while it needs to import.

It's all nonsense. The EU should come down hyperhard on this, and everything else.

murphaph

Deleted User wrote: »

Arse to the UK. Arse to the trade deal.

I've had enough of British colleagues lecturing me on vaccines.

God I am glad I have no contact with them. I would probably go insane. I had to stop posting on another forum about it because the lack of self awareness became so intolerable.

Literally everything the UK does: Good, everything the EU does: Bad. Many folk who weren't even Brexit believers now have nothing else to cling on to but this (largely manufactured) story of world beating Brits showing why leaving was in fact a great idea.

Life after Covid is going to be an empty place for many of them. I think the vaccine strife has pushed back any chance of the UK coming closer to the EU for many years. The propaganda is just too overwhelming.

beerguts

In my role a lot of our EU regulatory functions are based in a sister office just outside London. There is no talk yet of relocating to a European location (Ireland included) however I cannot see this lasting into the medium term with the restrictions on services into the European market. Does anyone have any knowledge of policy/regulation that would decide whether companies will be forced to book these back office functions within the 27? I would not know where to start looking for any guidance.

[Deleted User]

murphaph wrote: »

God I am glad I have no contact with them. I would probably go insane. I had to stop posting on another forum about it because the lack of self awareness became so intolerable.

Literally everything the UK does: Good, everything the EU does: Bad. Many folk who weren't even Brexit believers now have nothing else to cling on to but this (largely manufactured) story of world beating Brits showing why leaving was in fact a great idea.

Life after Covid is going to be an empty place for many of them. I think the vaccine strife has pushed back any chance of the UK coming closer to the EU for many years. The propaganda is just too overwhelming.

My best friend is a Brexiteer. I posted a couple of months ago here about his plan to move the EU, and some posters detailed the difficulties. He is now looking at the UK because that's all there is.

He now talks about vaccines.

Love him, but Christ. They love to take credit.

J Mysterio

[Deleted User] wrote: »

My best friend is a Brexiteer. I posted a couple of months ago here about his plan to move the EU, and some posters detailed the difficulties. He is now looking at the UK because that's all there is.

He now talks about vaccines.

Love him, but Christ. They love to take credit.

Don't think I could sustain a friendship with someone like that.

BlitzKrieg

I've pushed away extended family who were die hard insane brexiteers during the referendum (insane because they were both Irish living in London). I hear now they do nothing but complain about Brexit and how much it messed up everything so I avoid them now more as activating smug mode would probably result in me getting punched.

ancapailldorcha

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

I've pushed away extended family who were die hard insane brexiteers during the referendum (insane because they were both Irish living in London). I hear now they do nothing but complain about Brexit and how much it messed up everything so I avoid them now more as activating smug mode would probably result in me getting punched.

I've an aunt in North London. I get on well with her even though she voted for the damn thing and seems unable to recognise that the Ottoman Empire is not imminently joining the EU. Her (ethnically Greek) husband had a barbaque event over a bank holiday whereupon they pontificated how great it was to be out, how terrible Indians are, how there are too many foreigners, how lazy I am and how much free money they can leech off the state. Since then I just decided that I'm done with them. If I'm successful in getting a job on the continent (which seems unlikely) I don't even plan to tell them that I'll be leaving. One less foreigner, eh?

[Deleted User]

J Mysterio wrote: »

Don't think I could sustain a friendship with someone like that.

It is what it is. We avoid politics for the most part. We're good friends for other reasons.

yagan

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

If I'm successful in getting a job on the continent (which seems unlikely) I don't even plan to tell them that I'll be leaving. One less foreigner, eh?

As Covid wanes (fingers crossed the Guinness Fart variant doesn't show up) I reckon many EU businesses will poach staff from the UK. You'll have to stay tied to visa sponsor for a while but for EU businesses the UK will be a happy hunting ground.

ancapailldorcha

yagan wrote: »

As Covid wanes (fingers crossed the Guinness Fart variant doesn't show up) I reckon many EU businesses will poach staff from the UK. You'll have to stay tied to visa sponsor for a while but for EU businesses the UK will be a happy hunting ground.

I'm afraid you've lost me. I'm Irish. I wouldn't need a visa sponsor as far as I know.

The Raging Bile Duct

yagan wrote: »

As Covid wanes (fingers crossed the Guinness Fart variant doesn't show up) I reckon many EU businesses will poach staff from the UK. You'll have to stay tied to visa sponsor for a while but for EU businesses the UK will be a happy hunting ground.

He's Irish so the visa won't be an issue.

Strazdas

murphaph wrote: »

God I am glad I have no contact with them. I would probably go insane. I had to stop posting on another forum about it because the lack of self awareness became so intolerable.

Literally everything the UK does: Good, everything the EU does: Bad. Many folk who weren't even Brexit believers now have nothing else to cling on to but this (largely manufactured) story of world beating Brits showing why leaving was in fact a great idea.

Life after Covid is going to be an empty place for many of them. I think the vaccine strife has pushed back any chance of the UK coming closer to the EU for many years. The propaganda is just too overwhelming.

The whole vaccines thing and the accompanying Brexit propaganda is actually very damaging to the relationship. There is a touch of North Korea about what is happening at the moment - the "great nation" led by the Great Leader and surrounded by 27 evil states who want to do the great nation down. Even former remainers buying into this nonsense.

ambro25

beerguts wrote: »

In my role a lot of our EU regulatory functions are based in a sister office just outside London. There is no talk yet of relocating to a European location (Ireland included) however I cannot see this lasting into the medium term with the restrictions on services into the European market. Does anyone have any knowledge of policy/regulation that would decide whether companies will be forced to book these back office functions within the 27? I would not know where to start looking for any guidance.

If you have a sister office in charge of EU regulatory functions, then is it a safe bet that your profession/output is regulated indeed?

In which case, "where to look" starts with the EU Directive(s) involved in your line of work, then the EU's Brexit notice(s) to stakeholders specific to your industry. Those should give you at least an outline of the regulatory context, and changes to same caused by the UK exit. It isn't straightforward at all for most, I'm afraid, but the information is (should be) all there. Then it's a case of applying Cartesian/unbiased logic.

E.g. in my role, the above approach yielded clear enough outcomes to me pre-referendum, and every regulatory outcome that I predicted at the time (subject to which 'type' of actual Brexit delivered), and stuck to in debates and arguments over 5 years, came to pass last January. I can still file an EU trademark or design. My ex-colleagues in the UK now can't anymore, irrespective of whether are Brit+Brit-qualified, or EU27+EU27-qualified: they *must* do that through me (-people in my role in the EU27). Obviously, not for free :pac:

ancapailldorcha: anything I can help with?

murphaph

J Mysterio wrote: »

Don't think I could sustain a friendship with someone like that.

I have a great friend in the UK (would do anything for you, never let you down bloke) but we have a different opinion on Brexit. We have an understanding that we just don't talk about Brexit and it's better that way. It's very divisive. I can imagine it tearing families apart in the UK.

eire4

murphaph wrote: »

God I am glad I have no contact with them. I would probably go insane. I had to stop posting on another forum about it because the lack of self awareness became so intolerable.

Literally everything the UK does: Good, everything the EU does: Bad. Many folk who weren't even Brexit believers now have nothing else to cling on to but this (largely manufactured) story of world beating Brits showing why leaving was in fact a great idea.

Life after Covid is going to be an empty place for many of them. I think the vaccine strife has pushed back any chance of the UK coming closer to the EU for many years. The propaganda is just too overwhelming.

Sadly I think your right about the impact of covid on EU UK relations. The pandemic is going to continue to be used as an excuse to hide the economic realities of brexit for some time to come as well no doubt.

ambro25

Deleted User wrote: »

It is what it is. We avoid politics for the most part. We're good friends for other reasons.

In exact same boat, with knobs on (add the whole extended family on Mrs side).

I know the feeling well, and "it is what it is" is just perfectly suited to the situation. It is a good test for strength of character and magnanimity, I find.

murphaph wrote: »

I have a great friend in the UK (would do anything for you, never let you down bloke) but we have a different opinion on Brexit. We have an understanding that we just don't talk about Brexit and it's better that way. It's very divisive. I can imagine it tearing families apart in the UK.

Well, I was certainly glad to (finally!) manage to return the mother-in-law to the UK the other week...but I promise her Brexit voting had nothing to do with it!

CelticRambler

An entirely different internet rabbit hole led me by chance to this article, concerning the trade in diamonds and other luxuries, which includes this observation:

The UK government has withdrawn its concession allowing tax-free shopping for non-EU visitors, effective January 1, 2021. This is a major sticking point for luxury retailers.

“The withdrawal of the VAT Retail Export Scheme remains a key concern for the [fashion] sector, [which] sincerely believes that the decision will undermine the industry’s attractiveness to an international audience,” said Heather Lafferty, policy researcher at Fashion Roundtable, a think tank for the fashion industry.

Since the UK announced the move in September 2020, France has lowered its threshold for international shoppers to be able to claim back VAT, while Ireland extended its own scheme to cover the UK, “making the UK the least competitive market in Europe for internationally shoppers,” Lafferty argued.

Two EU members adjust their interpretation of the scheme to suit their objectives, while the UK exercises its sovereign right to cancel it outright and make the UK less competitive. I thought Brexit Britain was going to be more competitive when free of its EU shackles?