blanch152 wrote: » Obviously not any more, given the views you expressed moments ago.
FrancieBrady wrote: » The ongoing mess that is partition was always good enough criteria for me blanch.
FrancieBrady wrote: » a question phrased 'Will you vote for a UI tomorrow' to which even I would answer 'no' to at this time.
jimmycrackcorm wrote: » It's all fluff talk by SF. Once a serious debate gets underway and northerners really start to think about losing their NHS in favour of the HSE, moderate nationalists will happily stay with the status quo. There's no chance we can provide the equivalent of the NHS here. It's simply unaffordable with our cost base and unions unwilling to restructure.
blanch152 wrote: » There are no terms in the GFA ruling out the use of opinion polls either. The SOS has to make up his mind that it is likely that a poll will pass. There are few things to guide him. A majority of seats in the Assembly held by parties taking the label nationalist is one obvious sign - I don't see that happening ever though, as the unaligned will grow stronger. The only other obvious sign is a succession of opinion polls where there is a majority in favour of unity and that majority is greater than the margin of error of the relevant polls. I really don't see what other things there are to guide him in this. The South having a plan is a useful thing, but doesn't hold water if there is still no change in view up North. No amount of posturing by Michelle or Mary-Lou should have influence. Tell us your criteria for determining whether a border poll should happen.
FrancieBrady wrote: » Head in the sand stuff. There are many more discussing a UI now and saying it is inevitable. Unionists are against the protocol because they know it will push the two jurisdictions closer together - the protocol is staying.
FrancieBrady wrote: » Quote where it says anything about 'public opinion' in the GFA? The critieria is 'if it appears likely to the SoS that a poll would pass'. Subsequent challenges in court on that has found that the SoS can come to that opinion howsoever he /she wishes. There are no constraints/criteria that he/she has to meet.
jh79 wrote: » They are afraid it's now or never. Brexit is the biggest thing to happen to NI since the GFA. Then we have the pandemic too. Yet the majority wish to remain in the uk. This could be as small as the gap gets. Once Brexit stabilises and the pandemic is over unification will be forgotten about again. SF know this hence the desperation to get a border poll asap.
FrancieBrady wrote: » You cannot say...if you are basing your decision solely on opinion polls. Again, all we know from the latest opinion poll is that a majority would not vote for a UI 'tomorrow'. There are no 'terms' in the GFA governing opinion polls and no amount of grandstanding from you will insert them.
jh79 wrote: » Might never be one, might never be "likely to pass". Setting a date now without considering public opinion is not adhering to the GFA.
jh79 wrote: » So how did you come to the conclusion that a border poll should happen now rather than 5 years ago if opinion polls mean so little?
jh79 wrote: » Looks like you've lost track of your own argument. I agree with the underlined completely therefore you cannot say a border poll should be called within a certain timeframe. You cannot say with any confidence that a border poll would be more likely to pass ,as per the GFA, in 2025. We know presently that the majority do not want a UI. They might in the future but we will just have to wait and see. The Republic having a plan will certainly influence voters but its completion in no way justifies a border poll under the terms of the GFA.
FrancieBrady wrote: » You can't even read the answer properly. I AM in favour of unification, I do not think voting in favour of it 'tomorrow' would be right. That is all the opinion you can gather from that poll. You cannot extrapolate from it what any one of those polled would do if there was a poll in 2-5-or 10 years time. Therefore you cannot say that it would be wrong/anti the GFA etc etc and any other block you want to come up with, to call a poll in 2-5 or 10 years time.
jh79 wrote: » It is evidence of what people want now. So you are not in favor of unification presently but you may change your mind in the future and that is why we have regular polls to see if public opinion is changing. Pretty obvious i would of thought.
FrancieBrady wrote: » So how is a question phrased 'Will you vote for a UI tomorrow' to which even I would answer 'no' to at this time, be 'evidence' of what people want? It is only an answer to that question. Make sense please.
blanch152 wrote: » No, do you have a link to this? I am aware of another scandal involving 180k cash from nowhere being used to buy Pearse Doherty's office which is being investigated by SIPO, but this is a new one.
jh79 wrote: » No, that wrong too. My theory / opinion is based on evidence, the border poll will only confirm if my theory / opinion is right. In either outcome my opinion is still based on evidence. You on the other hand have not provided evidence that a border poll would be likely to pass. Factors that might influence voting patterns are not evidence without something linking them to empirical data.
jh79 wrote: » I'm not. I'm saying we do the preparation and then see what the lay of the land is. Francie wants a border poll once the preparation is none without any consideration for public opinion at the time. I think you and I are closer in outlook on this than you and Francie!
blanch152 wrote: » And as an indicator they are a necessary but not sufficient piece of evidence required for a border poll.
maccored wrote: » you are the one jumping the gun and assuming that after a discussion people wouldnt want a poll. as I said - cart before the horse.
FrancieBrady wrote: » Yours s based on opinion...like mine. The 'evidence' for either 'opinion' will only be found in an actual border poll.
jh79 wrote: » I'm not the one looking for a date to be set, Francie is! I don't know what the people of NI will want in the future and neither do you. We can be prepared but setting a firm date cannot be justified currently under the GFA.
FrancieBrady wrote: » You say this despite the fact that my answer to the 'tomorrow' question would also be No. I think one or two pro UI people on here have said the same thing. Opinion poll questions can be weighted to get an answer you want...especially if you are making a TV programme lamenting the end of the United Kingdom. They are an indicator, not 'evidence' of anything conclusive.
CouthyDown wrote: » Have any of ye been follwing Stephen Nolan these past few days in relation to the sports funding. It seems that there has been a mess up with the money that went to sports clubs and bigot Jim Allister seems to be calling out GAA clubs. Royal county Down golf club received 1.5m. This could be sinn feins RHI scandal!
blanch152 wrote: » The answers to the question "Are you in favour of a border poll happening" include those who are against a united Ireland and want the question answered for a few generations, so it is completely the wrong question. On the other hand, the answers to the question "Would you vote for a UI tomorrow?" do give an answer as to whether a border poll is likely to pass.
FrancieBrady wrote: » The only 'evidence' of 'what people want' will be found in an actual poll based on the proposals put in front of them. Everything else is 'opinion'...it's in the name of the very thing you are depending on...'OPINION polls'. Many of those opinion polls actually asked the question...'Would you vote for a UI tomorrow..' Which gets a different answer to the question phrased another way...'Are you in favour of a border poll happening....'
jh79 wrote: » Not part of the GFA to have trial runs. While you might not agree with my opinion, at least it is based on empirical data. Yours on the other hand is based on nothing.
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