The wondrous adventures of Sinn Fein (part 3) Mod Notes and Threadbanned List in OP

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You don't need a majority of 'nationalist' seats, all you need is a majority willing to have the conversation and put it to the test, democratically...which would bring in the Alliance.

Your willingness to keep the debate and excercising of democracy to two polarised sides is noteworthy here. You are depending on division, in other words.

We are at this juncture because integration is impossible because of partition and it's polarising effect.

The Alliance don't want a border poll, they want to focus on domestic issues within Northern Ireland without the distractions of the constitutional issue. They would support a border poll if it was likely to pass, but they won't be adding their numbers to that support.

blanch152 wrote: »

Saying that you want a border poll at some undetermined time in the future when the conditions are right is only repeating what is said in the GFA, so of course they are all saying that.

Pushing for a border poll in the near future before the conditions have been met is a Sinn Fein policy, divisive and counter-productive though that may be. Plenty of politicians from Martin to Eastwood have called Sinn Fein out on this. However, Sinn Fein are entitled to adopt this position and either you agree with them or you agree with the rest. Pretending that everybody is saying the same thing is ignoring reality.

SF say (listen to Mary Lou) that they want a border poll to happen after we have properly prepared for it. They are calling for preparations to begin.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

SF say (listen to Mary Lou) that they want a border poll to happen after we have properly prepared for it. They are calling for preparations to begin.

Why is that any better? The majority in NI might not care how well prepared we are. Our preparedness is only relevant if the border poll is likely to pass.

maccored

jh79 wrote: »

Why is that any better? The majority in NI might not care how well prepared we are. Our preparedness is only relevant if the border poll is likely to pass.

what? What does it matter that we all have a fair idea of what a united ireland might be before we vote on it? thats a quare silly thing to be asking is it not?

blanch152 wrote: »

The Alliance don't want a border poll, they want to focus on domestic issues within Northern Ireland without the distractions of the constitutional issue. They would support a border poll if it was likely to pass, but they won't be adding their numbers to that support.

The Alliance (again...LISTEN to Naomi Long as recently as Monday night) have no issue with a discussion on a UI or a border poll if it were to happen.

It is a statement of the obvious to say that work needs doing on the domestic issues, that is just typical Alliance sitting in judgement without wanting to get their hands dirty confronting issues. One of which is the over riding impossible to fix, effects of partition.

jh79 wrote: »

Why is that any better? The majority in NI might not care how well prepared we are. Our preparedness is only relevant if the border poll is likely to pass.

What?

Are you fearful that preparing (discussing and planning for change) might convince some people?

maccored wrote: »

what? What does it matter that we all have a fair idea of what a united ireland might be before we vote on it? thats a quare silly thing to be asking is it not?

Francie is claiming we should have the border poll once we have our preparations done.

Us having our ducks in a row is not a justification for having a border poll. That should only happen if it is likely to pass as per the GFA.

maccored

jh79 wrote: »

Francie is claiming we should have the border poll once we have our preparations done.

Us having our ducks in a row is not a justification for having a border poll. That should only happen if it is likely to pass as per the GFA.

how can you say it wouldnt be likely to pass once people have finished discussing it (which is part of preparing for the poll)?Cart before the horse

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What?

Are you fearful that preparing (discussing and planning for change) might convince some people?

As I said to maccored, us having a white paper or document outlining a UI is in itself not a justification to have a border poll. We should be prepared in case it happens but will have to wait until public opinion is that unification is the preferred option as per the GFA.

maccored wrote: »

how can you say it wouldnt be likely to pass once people have finished discussing it (which is part of preparing for the poll)?Cart before the horse

I'm not the one looking for a date to be set, Francie is!

I don't know what the people of NI will want in the future and neither do you. We can be prepared but setting a firm date cannot be justified currently under the GFA.

jh79 wrote: »

Francie is claiming we should have the border poll once we have our preparations done.

Us having our ducks in a row is not a justification for having a border poll. That should only happen if it is likely to pass as per the GFA.

It is as likely to pass as it is to fail based on opinion polls.

You cannot claim otherwise based on other referendums where wider margins have been closed.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

SF say (listen to Mary Lou) that they want a border poll to happen after we have properly prepared for it. They are calling for preparations to begin.

Preparing for a border poll is a different process with different connotations to conducting a discussion about a potential united Ireland. They are two different processes, one with a predetermined outcome (a border poll) and one without.

When politicians from other parties repeatedly say that Sinn Fein are premature and are upsetting unionists, that is exactly what they mean.

blanch152 wrote: »

Preparing for a border poll is a different process with different connotations to conducting a discussion about a potential united Ireland. They are two different processes, one with a predetermined outcome (a border poll) and one without.

When politicians from other parties repeatedly say that Sinn Fein are premature and are upsetting unionists, that is exactly what they mean.

And as DeSousza said, if we were worried about 'upsetting Unionists' then we wouldn't have the Anglo Irish Agreement or the GFA. Varadkar upset Unionists in the discussion FFS.

Back to where we started by you proving what she said.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It is as likely to pass as it is to fail based on opinion polls.

You cannot claim otherwise based on other referendums where wider margins have been closed.

I disagree but even still that is a 50/50 chance and is not meeting the "likely to pass" to pass caveat.

Again using an opinion poll as a justification for a border poll while claiming they shouldn't be used as a justification not to have one.

jh79 wrote: »

I disagree but even still that is a 50/50 chance and is not meeting the "likely to pass" to pass caveat.

The 'likely to pass' caveat does not have to based on opinion polls...how many times?
Your dependence on them here is just more of the partitionist/Unionist blocking as mentioned before.

Again using an opinion poll as a justification for a border poll while claiming they shouldn't be used as a justification not to have one.

No, just pointing out the inherent fallacy in your use of opinion polls.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The 'likely to pass' caveat does not have to based on opinion polls...how many times?
Your dependence on them here is just more of the partitionist/Unionist blocking as mentioned before.

No, just pointing out the inherent fallacy in your use of opinion polls.

So if an opinion poll came out in the morning with 60% in favour you would not use it as a justification for a border poll?

In such an event the SoS would be legally entitled to not call a border poll. I would say that it not morally adhering to the GFA in the same manner that having one when the current situation is that the majority in opinion polls have expressed a desire to remain in the UK.

jh79 wrote: »

So if an opinion poll came out in the morning with 60% in favour you would not use it as a justification for a border poll?

In such an event the SoS would be legally entitled to not call a border poll. I would say that it not morally adhering to the GFA in the same manner that having one when the current situation is that the majority in opinion polls have expressed a desire to remain in the UK.

I don't use opinion polls as actual polls, no. I always expect an opinion poll to be confounded and overturned by an actual poll. It has happened many times.

Need I go on?

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I don't use opinion polls as actual polls, no. I always expect an opinion poll to be confounded and overturned by an actual poll. It has happened many times.

Need I go on?

So how did you come to the conclusion that a border poll should happen now rather than 5 years ago if opinion polls mean so little?

jh79 wrote: »

So how did you come to the conclusion that a border poll should happen now rather than 5 years ago if opinion polls mean so little?

Events and the discussions happening literally everywhere from The Dáil to border areas, to Belfast Derry, Liverpool University and Sussex University etc etc.
Throw in Brexit and the pandemic issues to boot.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The 'likely to pass' caveat does not have to based on opinion polls...how many times?
Your dependence on them here is just more of the partitionist/Unionist blocking as mentioned before.

No, just pointing out the inherent fallacy in your use of opinion polls.

How should I put it?

A reasonable opinion would be that a clear margin in a series of opinion polls is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a conclusion that a border poll is likely to pass.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Events and the discussions happening literally everywhere from The Dáil to border areas, to Belfast Derry, Liverpool University and Sussex University etc etc.
Throw in Brexit and the pandemic issues to boot.

These are factors that may influence public opinion but are not evidence that public opinion has changed.

We have an aspiration for a UI as per our constitution which you regularly point out, of course the Republic will discuss it. It isn't evidence that the people of NI want it though.

Academic papers on NI are nothing new and again are not evidence of the people of NI wanting change.

Brexit and the Pandemic are valid reasons for wanting unification but are not themselves evidence of a change in public opinion on unification.

Where is the evidence that these factors have influenced public opinion to an extent that a border poll could be reasonably considered as "likely to pass"?

jh79 wrote: »

These are factors that may influence public opinion but are not evidence that public opinion has changed.

We have an aspiration for a UI as per our constitution which you regularly point out, of course the Republic will discuss it. It isn't evidence that the people of NI want it though.

Academic papers on NI are nothing new and again are not evidence of the people of NI wanting change.

Brexit and the Pandemic are valid reasons for wanting unification but are not themselves evidence of a change in public opinion on unification.

Where is the evidence that these factors have influenced public opinion to an extent that a border poll could be reasonaly considered to be "likely to pass"?

The only 'evidence' of 'what people want' will be found in an actual poll based on the proposals put in front of them.

Everything else is 'opinion'...it's in the name of the very thing you are depending on...'OPINION polls'.

Many of those opinion polls actually asked the question...'Would you vote for a UI tomorrow..' Which gets a different answer to the question phrased another way...'Are you in favour of a border poll happening....'

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The only 'evidence' of 'what people want' will be found in an actual poll based on the proposals put in front of them.

Everything else is 'opinion'...it's in the name of the very thing you are depending on...'OPINION polls'.

Many of those opinion polls actually asked the question...'Would you vote for a UI tomorrow..' Which gets a different answer to the question phrased another way...'Are you in favour of a border poll happening....'

Not part of the GFA to have trial runs.

While you might not agree with my opinion, at least it is based on empirical data. Yours on the other hand is based on nothing.

jh79 wrote: »

These are factors that may influence public opinion but are not evidence that public opinion has changed.

We have an aspiration for a UI as per our constitution which you regularly point out, of course the Republic will discuss it. It isn't evidence that the people of NI want it though.

Academic papers on NI are nothing new and again are not evidence of the people of NI wanting change.

Brexit and the Pandemic are valid reasons for wanting unification but are not themselves evidence of a change in public opinion on unification.

Where is the evidence that these factors have influenced public opinion to an extent that a border poll could be reasonably considered as "likely to pass"?

Furthermore, it would be dangerous just to have a poll based on the temporary effects of a pandemic and the transitional effects of Brexit.

Even then, the more rapid pace of vaccination in the North thanks to Boris might actually turn people against a united Ireland. That being more recent could act to cover up the abysmal handling of the pandemic by the DUP/SF government.

jh79 wrote: »

Not part of the GFA to have trial runs.

While you might not agree with my opinion, at least it is based on empirical data. Yours on the other hand is based on nothing.

Yours s based on opinion...like mine.

The 'evidence' for either 'opinion' will only be found in an actual border poll.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The only 'evidence' of 'what people want' will be found in an actual poll based on the proposals put in front of them.

Everything else is 'opinion'...it's in the name of the very thing you are depending on...'OPINION polls'.

Many of those opinion polls actually asked the question...'Would you vote for a UI tomorrow..' Which gets a different answer to the question phrased another way...'Are you in favour of a border poll happening....'

The answers to the question "Are you in favour of a border poll happening" include those who are against a united Ireland and want the question answered for a few generations, so it is completely the wrong question.

On the other hand, the answers to the question "Would you vote for a UI tomorrow?" do give an answer as to whether a border poll is likely to pass.

CouthyDown

Have any of ye been follwing Stephen Nolan these past few days in relation to the sports funding. It seems that there has been a mess up with the money that went to sports clubs and bigot Jim Allister seems to be calling out GAA clubs. Royal county Down golf club received 1.5m. This could be sinn feins RHI scandal!

blanch152 wrote: »

The answers to the question "Are you in favour of a border poll happening" include those who are against a united Ireland and want the question answered for a few generations, so it is completely the wrong question.

On the other hand, the answers to the question "Would you vote for a UI tomorrow?" do give an answer as to whether a border poll is likely to pass.

You say this despite the fact that my answer to the 'tomorrow' question would also be No. I think one or two pro UI people on here have said the same thing.

Opinion poll questions can be weighted to get an answer you want...especially if you are making a TV programme lamenting the end of the United Kingdom.

They are an indicator, not 'evidence' of anything conclusive.

CouthyDown wrote: »

Have any of ye been follwing Stephen Nolan these past few days in relation to the sports funding. It seems that there has been a mess up with the money that went to sports clubs and bigot Jim Allister seems to be calling out GAA clubs. Royal county Down golf club received 1.5m. This could be sinn feins RHI scandal!

No, do you have a link to this?

I am aware of another scandal involving 180k cash from nowhere being used to buy Pearse Doherty's office which is being investigated by SIPO, but this is a new one.