jh79 wrote: » These are factors that may influence public opinion but are not evidence that public opinion has changed. We have an aspiration for a UI as per our constitution which you regularly point out, of course the Republic will discuss it. It isn't evidence that the people of NI want it though. Academic papers on NI are nothing new and again are not evidence of the people of NI wanting change. Brexit and the Pandemic are valid reasons for wanting unification but are not themselves evidence of a change in public opinion on unification. Where is the evidence that these factors have influenced public opinion to an extent that a border poll could be reasonably considered as "likely to pass"?
FrancieBrady wrote: » The only 'evidence' of 'what people want' will be found in an actual poll based on the proposals put in front of them. Everything else is 'opinion'...it's in the name of the very thing you are depending on...'OPINION polls'. Many of those opinion polls actually asked the question...'Would you vote for a UI tomorrow..' Which gets a different answer to the question phrased another way...'Are you in favour of a border poll happening....'
jh79 wrote: » These are factors that may influence public opinion but are not evidence that public opinion has changed. We have an aspiration for a UI as per our constitution which you regularly point out, of course the Republic will discuss it. It isn't evidence that the people of NI want it though. Academic papers on NI are nothing new and again are not evidence of the people of NI wanting change. Brexit and the Pandemic are valid reasons for wanting unification but are not themselves evidence of a change in public opinion on unification. Where is the evidence that these factors have influenced public opinion to an extent that a border poll could be reasonaly considered to be "likely to pass"?
FrancieBrady wrote: » Events and the discussions happening literally everywhere from The Dáil to border areas, to Belfast Derry, Liverpool University and Sussex University etc etc. Throw in Brexit and the pandemic issues to boot.
FrancieBrady wrote: » The 'likely to pass' caveat does not have to based on opinion polls...how many times? Your dependence on them here is just more of the partitionist/Unionist blocking as mentioned before. No, just pointing out the inherent fallacy in your use of opinion polls.
jh79 wrote: » So how did you come to the conclusion that a border poll should happen now rather than 5 years ago if opinion polls mean so little?
FrancieBrady wrote: » I don't use opinion polls as actual polls, no. I always expect an opinion poll to be confounded and overturned by an actual poll. It has happened many times. Need I go on?
jh79 wrote: » So if an opinion poll came out in the morning with 60% in favour you would not use it as a justification for a border poll? In such an event the SoS would be legally entitled to not call a border poll. I would say that it not morally adhering to the GFA in the same manner that having one when the current situation is that the majority in opinion polls have expressed a desire to remain in the UK.
jh79 wrote: » I disagree but even still that is a 50/50 chance and is not meeting the "likely to pass" to pass caveat.
Again using an opinion poll as a justification for a border poll while claiming they shouldn't be used as a justification not to have one.
FrancieBrady wrote: » It is as likely to pass as it is to fail based on opinion polls. You cannot claim otherwise based on other referendums where wider margins have been closed.
blanch152 wrote: » Preparing for a border poll is a different process with different connotations to conducting a discussion about a potential united Ireland. They are two different processes, one with a predetermined outcome (a border poll) and one without. When politicians from other parties repeatedly say that Sinn Fein are premature and are upsetting unionists, that is exactly what they mean.
FrancieBrady wrote: » SF say (listen to Mary Lou) that they want a border poll to happen after we have properly prepared for it. They are calling for preparations to begin.
jh79 wrote: » Francie is claiming we should have the border poll once we have our preparations done. Us having our ducks in a row is not a justification for having a border poll. That should only happen if it is likely to pass as per the GFA.
maccored wrote: » how can you say it wouldnt be likely to pass once people have finished discussing it (which is part of preparing for the poll)?Cart before the horse
FrancieBrady wrote: » What? Are you fearful that preparing (discussing and planning for change) might convince some people?
maccored wrote: » what? What does it matter that we all have a fair idea of what a united ireland might be before we vote on it? thats a quare silly thing to be asking is it not?
jh79 wrote: » Why is that any better? The majority in NI might not care how well prepared we are. Our preparedness is only relevant if the border poll is likely to pass.
blanch152 wrote: » The Alliance don't want a border poll, they want to focus on domestic issues within Northern Ireland without the distractions of the constitutional issue. They would support a border poll if it was likely to pass, but they won't be adding their numbers to that support.
blanch152 wrote: » Saying that you want a border poll at some undetermined time in the future when the conditions are right is only repeating what is said in the GFA, so of course they are all saying that. Pushing for a border poll in the near future before the conditions have been met is a Sinn Fein policy, divisive and counter-productive though that may be. Plenty of politicians from Martin to Eastwood have called Sinn Fein out on this. However, Sinn Fein are entitled to adopt this position and either you agree with them or you agree with the rest. Pretending that everybody is saying the same thing is ignoring reality.
FrancieBrady wrote: » You don't need a majority of 'nationalist' seats, all you need is a majority willing to have the conversation and put it to the test, democratically...which would bring in the Alliance. Your willingness to keep the debate and excercising of democracy to two polarised sides is noteworthy here. You are depending on division, in other words. We are at this juncture because integration is impossible because of partition and it's polarising effect.
FrancieBrady wrote: » Anyone who is in the conversation about a UI atm blanch...want a border poll called at sometime. That is everyone from SF to Leo Varadkar, Bertie Ahern, Jim O'Callaghan etc etc etc.
blanch152 wrote: » Agreed, the dependence on opinion polls is only one factor. A majority of nationalist seats in the Assembly would be another.
Progress in integration in the North would be a third.
blanch152 wrote: » Francie, you are contradicting yourself. On the one hand you are saying that the pressure for a date will continue, on the other you are saying that Sinn Fein are not pressing for a date. If it is not SF pressing for a date, who is?
FrancieBrady wrote: » As shown that evidence is actually that larger gaps in opinion polls have been closed before...therefore a BP is as likely to pass as it is to fail. See above and I'll add again, the dependence on opinion polls only is not ratified in law or the agreement. Again, see above.
end of the road wrote: » it's a nonsense position in fact, and it's a position that will ultimately fail as the majority who are in favour of reunification currently, will decide. the middle ground is ultimately still small, even if the DUP'S vote is shrinking.
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://w4.vanillicon.com/v2/4b1a2e86cedae1628937f4503f2281da.svg)
