The wondrous adventures of Sinn Fein (part 3) Mod Notes and Threadbanned List in OP

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So when Scottish Independence got the majority in opinion polls in the independence campaign, should we have called it then?

The point is jh79, the GFA is referred to as a 'process' that was intended to lead to a border poll at regular intervals to take stock of opinion.

Only a fool would say that the 'opinion' has vastly changed in as little as 4 years. There is an attempt, by the likes of Gregory Campbell and partitionists to halt that process.

The process is that a border poll occurs if likely to pass not at regular intervals.

Opinions may have changed but currently not enough for it to be successful and therefore nobody is preventing the process yet.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Mary Lou as recently as last night...'we need to prepare for a border poll'.

Exact same thing as Eastwood is saying.

Said it before, will say it again..SF don't own a UI...loads of people talking about it. The putative next leader of FF being the latest in a lecture at Sussex College.

The ones 'out on their own' seem to be the DUP and partitionists here who have their fingers in their ears...see also last night's debate for Gregory Campbell and John Bruton.

No, it isn't the exact same thing as Eastwood is saying.

There is no urgency to the SDLP musings, there is to the Sinn Fein ones as they are demanding a date and pushing hard on the issue. That is the difference I am pointing to. It is clear and evident to everyone. The only people pushing for a border poll are Sinn Fein. Everyone else wants one at some undetermined time in the future.

As I said, there is nothing to be afraid of or shameful for Sinn Fein supporters in this. This is what you voted for, for a party to push for a border poll. If they aren't ahead of everyone else and pushing harder for a poll than anyone else, why did republicans vote for them?

At the same time, the rest of us are entitled to our opinion that this push for a border poll by Sinn Fein is divisive, unhelpful, counter-productive and based on sectarian motives around head-count.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So when Scottish Independence got the majority in opinion polls in the independence campaign, should we have called it then?

The point is jh79, the GFA is referred to as a 'process' that was intended to lead to a border poll at regular intervals to take stock of opinion.

Only a fool would say that the 'opinion' hasn't vastly changed in as little as 4 years. There is an attempt, by the likes of Gregory Campbell and partitionists to halt that process.

There was never any intention to create a process for border polls at regular intervals. In fact, the opposite was intended by creating a minimum time before another could be held. If the process was for regular polls, then there would have been a maximum interval by which a poll must be held.

Furthermore, it must be likely that a poll will be passed. It is actually getting less likely as the share of the vote held by the two sectarian parties continues to shrink. As one paper put it about the recent debate:

"Elsewhere, former Ireland international Andrew Trimble provided an interesting perspective when he said: "There's a growing middle ground in Northern Ireland and they don’t want to be forced to choose" in a potential border poll."

Simply put, a growing minority in Northern Ireland are happy and proud to live in Northern Ireland, neither Irish nor British.

jh79 wrote: »

The process is that a border poll occurs if likely to pass not at regular intervals.

Opinions may have changed but currently not enough for it to be successful and therefore nobody is preventing the process yet.

When Scotland got it's referendum opinion polls showed a far wider divide in opinion than here.

We can, or the SoS could extrapolate from that, that a border poll is as likely to pass as it is to fail.

Which is a sidebar to the actual point DeSouza was making...the attempts to shut down the ongoing discussions need to stop. The haughty dismissals of supposed democrats like Campbell and partitionists need to stop and they need (if they are democrats) to engage with the conversation.

They won't and it will cost them in the long run, recent history is all you need to know on that.

blanch152 wrote: »

There was never any intention to create a process for border polls at regular intervals. In fact, the opposite was intended by creating a minimum time before another could be held. If the process was for regular polls, then there would have been a maximum interval by which a poll must be held.

Furthermore, it must be likely that a poll will be passed. It is actually getting less likely as the share of the vote held by the two sectarian parties continues to shrink. As one paper put it about the recent debate:

"Elsewhere, former Ireland international Andrew Trimble provided an interesting perspective when he said: "There's a growing middle ground in Northern Ireland and they don’t want to be forced to choose" in a potential border poll."

Simply put, a growing minority in Northern Ireland are happy and proud to live in Northern Ireland, neither Irish nor British.

'Not wanting to be forced to choose' is a nonsense position to have. It is technically a lazy vote for the status quo...making him a unionist even if he denies it.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

'Not wanting to be forced to choose' is a nonsense position to have. It is technically a lazy vote for the status quo...making him a unionist even if he denies it.

In your opinion, "not wanting to be forced to choose" maybe a nonsense position, however, for those who genuinely hold this view (why change the constitutional status before we fix the place being one perspective) it isn't nonsense, it makes perfect sense.

Deriding the views of others, whether they be unionists, "partitionists" or those not wanting change for the sake of change, is a Sinn Fein trait and not one that will win hearts and minds. Time it stopped.

blanch152 wrote: »

In your opinion, "not wanting to be forced to choose" maybe a nonsense position, however, for those who genuinely hold this view (why change the constitutional status before we fix the place being one perspective) it isn't nonsense, it makes perfect sense.

Deriding the views of others, whether they be unionists, "partitionists" or those not wanting change for the sake of change, is a Sinn Fein trait and not one that will win hearts and minds. Time it stopped.

Poster deriding my opinion criticises me for deriding the opinions of others.

Not wanting to be forced to choose (nobody is forcing anyone in a democratic referendum where you agree to accept the decision/outcome as nationalists did with the GFA referendums) is a lazy endorsement of the status quo. There is no derision there blanch, just my opinion of his.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

When Scotland got it's referendum opinion polls showed a far wider divide in opinion than here.

We can, or the SoS could extrapolate from that, that a border poll is as likely to pass as it is to fail.

Which is a sidebar to the actual point DeSouza was making...the attempts to shut down the ongoing discussions need to stop. The haughty dismissals of supposed democrats like Campbell and partitionists need to stop and they need (if they are democrats) to engage with the conversation.

They won't and it will cost them in the long run, recent history is all you need to know on that.

That's a very wishy washy extrapolation. Opinion polls have a margin of error , if the gap between the two sides is greater than the margin of error then the poll is not likely to pass and therefore under the GFA it should not go ahead. While opinion polls are not always right at least that would be based on something empirical.

Nobody, in either country is obliged to discuss an UI. Their only obligation is to respect the GFA and the democratic outcome.

Pushing for a border poll when the polls are not in your favor is not respecting the GFA.

jh79 wrote: »

That's a very wishy washy extrapolation. Opinion polls have a margin of error , if the gap between the two sides is greater than the margin of error then the poll is not likely to pass and therefore under the GFA it should not go ahead. While opinion polls are not always right at least that would be based on something empirical.

how many times does it need to be evidenced that the SoS does not need to rely on opinion polls nor produce evidence for his/her decision.

Nobody, in either country is obliged to discuss an UI. There only obligation is to respect the GFA and the democratic outcome.

Pushing for a border poll when the polls are not in your favor is not respecting the GFA.

What nonsense...discussion of the issues involved in a UI is not against the GFA...this is part of the 'blocking' nonsense DeSouza was referencing. Exactly the same as Campbells dismissive 'not a chance' pronouncements.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

how many times does it need to be evidenced that the SoS does not need to rely on opinion polls nor produce evidence for his/her decision.

What nonsense...discussion of the issues involved in a UI is not against the GFA...this is part of the 'blocking' nonsense DeSouza was referencing. Exactly the same as Campbells dismissive 'not a chance' pronouncements.

So where are you getting the idea that a border poll is "likely to pass"? At the moment the SoS, by not calling for a border poll, is maintaining the correct position as there is no evidence that it would likely pass.

While the SoS doesn't need to explain his decision based on current public opinion there is no need or requirement for him to call a poll.

Who is preventing people from discussing a UI?

While Campbells posturing is nonsense as he can't predict the future the DUP refusal to engage isn't preventing anything as the will isn't there yet.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

how many times does it need to be evidenced that the SoS does not need to rely on opinion polls nor produce evidence for his/her decision.

What nonsense...discussion of the issues involved in a UI is not against the GFA...this is part of the 'blocking' nonsense DeSouza was referencing. Exactly the same as Campbells dismissive 'not a chance' pronouncements.

jh79 wrote: »

That's a very wishy washy extrapolation. Opinion polls have a margin of error , if the gap between the two sides is greater than the margin of error then the poll is not likely to pass and therefore under the GFA it should not go ahead. While opinion polls are not always right at least that would be based on something empirical.

Nobody, in either country is obliged to discuss an UI. Their only obligation is to respect the GFA and the democratic outcome.

Pushing for a border poll when the polls are not in your favor is not respecting the GFA.

You are both correct.

Discussing the possibility of a united Ireland at sometime in the future is not against the GFA. Having a hypothetical debate or plan for a future united Ireland while working out how to finance a united Ireland and harmonise everything from social welfare to education to tax to road signs etc. is also in line with the GFA.

However, pushing for a border poll when the conditions set out in the GFA haven't been met, and are actually heading away from being met, is disrespecting the GFA, especially when you haven't engaged seriously in the discussion set out in the previous paragraph and are empty of ideas of how to finance a united Ireland.

jh79 wrote: »

So where are you getting the idea that a border poll is "likely to pass"? At the moment the SoS, by not calling for a border poll, is maintaining the correct position as there is no evidence that it would likely pass.

While the SoS doesn't need to explain his decision based on current public opinion there is no need or requirement for him to call a poll.

Who is preventing people from discussing a UI?

While Campbells posturing is nonsense as he can't predict the future the DUP refusal to engage isn't preventing anything as the will isn't there yet.

Comments like 'it is against the GFA to push for a border poll' is an attempt to prevent one.

I, and many others are 'getting the idea' because the actual campaign will be pivotal in persuading people. Why? Because the stakeholders will have to produce proposals and plans and layout the economics and constitutional provisions in those proposals and plans. IMO the opinion polls are now close enough to set a date for a border poll to allow that process to begin.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Comments like 'it is against the GFA to push for a border poll' is an attempt to prevent one.

I, and many others are 'getting the idea' because the actual campaign will be pivotal in persuading people. Why? Because the stakeholders will have to produce proposals and plans and layout the economics and constitutional provisions in those proposals and plans. IMO the opinion polls are now close enough to set a date for a border poll to allow that process to begin.

You are clearly disrespecting the GFA there, Francie.

A border poll should not be held until it is likely to pass. Your position that we should just hold a poll anyway and that the referendum campaign will influence people is a blatant attempt to push the GFA to one side and get around its provisions illegally.

The opinion poll this year showed less support for a united Ireland than the same one for the same polling company this time last year, so the opinion polls are going in the opposite direction to what you want.

blanch152 wrote: »

You are clearly disrespecting the GFA there, Francie.

A border poll should not be held until it is likely to pass. Your position that we should just hold a poll anyway and that the referendum campaign will influence people is a blatant attempt to push the GFA to one side and get around its provisions illegally.

The opinion poll this year showed less support for a united Ireland than the same one for the same polling company this time last year, so the opinion polls are going in the opposite direction to what you want.

Again...opinion polls are not the 'legal' metric. How many times does the outcome of the court challenge on this need to be mentioned?

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Comments like 'it is against the GFA to push for a border poll' is an attempt to prevent one.

I, and many others are 'getting the idea' because the actual campaign will be pivotal in persuading people. Why? Because the stakeholders will have to produce proposals and plans and layout the economics and constitutional provisions in those proposals and plans. IMO the opinion polls are now close enough to set a date for a border poll to allow that process to begin.

You're right, pushing for a border poll is not against the GFA so i will reword it.

There is no obligation to have a border poll presently as it is not likely to pass. The SoS, while not having to explain his position, is respecting the GFA by not having one as there is no evidence that it would pass.

Ignoring the caveat "likely to pass" and forcing a border poll within a specific time frame is against the spirit of the GFA and the SoS is under no obligation to do this and there can be no complaint that one doesn't happen within the context of the GFA.

The stakeholders can have the exact same discussions and also respect the GFA.

You wouldn't accept the SoS state refusing a border poll if the % were reversed because the GFA says he doesn't have to explain his decision. That is as equally wrong as forcing a border poll.

jh79 wrote: »

You're right, pushing for a border poll is not against the GFA so i will reword it.

There is no obligation to have a border poll presently as it is not likely to pass. The SoS, while not having to explain his position, is respecting the GFA by not having one as there is no evidence that it would pass.

Ignoring the caveat "likely to pass" and forcing a border poll within a specific time frame is against the spirit of the GFA and the SoS is under no obligation to do this and there can be no complaint that one doesn't happen within the context of the GFA.

The stakeholders can have the exact same discussions and also respect the GFA.

You wouldn't accept the SoS state refusing a border poll if the % were reversed because the GFA says he doesn't have to explain his decision. That is as equally wrong as forcing a border poll.

Your failure to see that you are forcing your opinion (that is all it is..an opinion) is evident here.

The conversation will continue as will the pressure for a date. Nothing against the 'spirit' in that as the agreement fully recognises the aspirations of all.

Unionist aspirations are being recognised but as yet the aspirations of Irish people haven't. That is the pressure on the SoS and that will increase.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Your failure to see that you are forcing your opinion (that is all it is..an opinion) is evident here.

The conversation will continue as will the pressure for a date. Nothing against the 'spirit' in that as the agreement fully recognises the aspirations of all.

Unionist aspirations are being recognised but as yet the aspirations of Irish people haven't. That is the pressure on the SoS and that will increase.

I'm not forcing an opinion. I am using the only empirical data available to form my own opinion that the "likely to pass" caveat has not yet been reached.

You are advocating for the forcing of a border poll irrespective of the only empirical data available. That is not in spirit of the GFA.

The aspirations of the Irish people are not being denied at all. A discussion on what a UI might look like have begun. The fact that a border poll has yet to be called can easily be explained by opinion polls. The SoS is being faithful to the GFA presently in both a moral and legal context.

jh79 wrote: »

I'm not forcing an opinion. I am using the only empirical data available to form my own opinion that the "likely to pass" caveat has not yet been reached.

As shown that evidence is actually that larger gaps in opinion polls have been closed before...therefore a BP is as likely to pass as it is to fail.

You are advocating for the forcing of a border poll irrespective of the only empirical data available. That is not in spirit of the GFA.

See above and I'll add again, the dependence on opinion polls only is not ratified in law or the agreement.

The aspirations of the Irish people are not being denied at all. A discussion on what a UI might look like have begun. The fact that a border poll has yet to be called can easily be explained by opinion polls. The SoS is being faithful to the GFA presently in both a moral and legal context.

Again, see above.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

As shown that evidence is actually that larger gaps in opinion polls have been closed before...therefore a BP is as likely to pass as it is to fail.

See above and I'll add again, the dependence on opinion polls only is not ratified in law or the agreement.

Again, see above.

So you can use opinion polls as a justification but i can't!

jh79 wrote: »

So you can use opinion polls as a justification but i can't!

You cannot claim a legal position for them.

maccored

jh79 wrote: »

I'm not forcing an opinion. I am using the only empirical data available to form my own opinion that the "likely to pass" caveat has not yet been reached.

You are advocating for the forcing of a border poll irrespective of the only empirical data available. That is not in spirit of the GFA.

The aspirations of the Irish people are not being denied at all. A discussion on what a UI might look like have begun. The fact that a border poll has yet to be called can easily be explained by opinion polls. The SoS is being faithful to the GFA presently in both a moral and legal context.

the starting point is the discussion - personally I'd agree that its too early for a poll as yet (though if you are using polls as your 'empirical data' then I'd question your logic) but the discussion needs to be had in order to form an opinion in order to have a border poll.

One rolls into the other though - get the discussion going and eventually, once the whole country, north and south, have digested the various outlines and discussions - only then will we be able to decide if a border poll is necessary. A classic example is the options of the south swallowing the north V a complete rebuilt of the whole place, how will changes be funded, how will the government operate etc. theres far too many different ideas at present that need to be teased out and discussed.

SF have been calling for that discussion for years mind you.

end of the road

blanch152 wrote: »

In your opinion, "not wanting to be forced to choose" maybe a nonsense position, however, for those who genuinely hold this view (why change the constitutional status before we fix the place being one perspective) it isn't nonsense, it makes perfect sense.

Deriding the views of others, whether they be unionists, "partitionists" or those not wanting change for the sake of change, is a Sinn Fein trait and not one that will win hearts and minds. Time it stopped.

it's a nonsense position in fact, and it's a position that will ultimately fail as the majority who are in favour of reunification currently, will decide.
the middle ground is ultimately still small, even if the DUP'S vote is shrinking.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You cannot claim a legal position for them.

That's why I said that "The SoS is being faithful to the GFA presently in both a moral and legal context"

He may be able to call one on a whim but presently there is no moral obligation to call one as there is not enough evidence that it would likely pass.

Putting a date on it would be morally against the GFA but not legally.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Your failure to see that you are forcing your opinion (that is all it is..an opinion) is evident here.

The conversation will continue as will the pressure for a date. Nothing against the 'spirit' in that as the agreement fully recognises the aspirations of all.

Unionist aspirations are being recognised but as yet the aspirations of Irish people haven't. That is the pressure on the SoS and that will increase.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

When the preparation is done. They are all saying that.

If you vote for the SDLP or SF you know you are voting for parties that support a UI blanch...no amount of twisting will change that.

Francie, you are contradicting yourself.

On the one hand you are saying that the pressure for a date will continue, on the other you are saying that Sinn Fein are not pressing for a date. If it is not SF pressing for a date, who is?

end of the road wrote: »

it's a nonsense position in fact, and it's a position that will ultimately fail as the majority who are in favour of reunification currently, will decide.
the middle ground is ultimately still small, even if the DUP'S vote is shrinking.

Where is your evidence that the majority want unification in NI?

FrancieBrady wrote: »

As shown that evidence is actually that larger gaps in opinion polls have been closed before...therefore a BP is as likely to pass as it is to fail.

See above and I'll add again, the dependence on opinion polls only is not ratified in law or the agreement.

Again, see above.

Agreed, the dependence on opinion polls is only one factor.

A majority of nationalist seats in the Assembly would be another.

Progress in integration in the North would be a third.

I can't see any of those three indicating anytime this decade that a border poll would be likely to pass.

blanch152 wrote: »

Francie, you are contradicting yourself.

On the one hand you are saying that the pressure for a date will continue, on the other you are saying that Sinn Fein are not pressing for a date. If it is not SF pressing for a date, who is?

Anyone who is in the conversation about a UI atm blanch...want a border poll called at sometime.

That is everyone from SF to Leo Varadkar, Bertie Ahern, Jim O'Callaghan etc etc etc.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Anyone who is in the conversation about a UI atm blanch...want a border poll called at sometime.

That is everyone from SF to Leo Varadkar, Bertie Ahern, Jim O'Callaghan etc etc etc.

Saying that you want a border poll at some undetermined time in the future when the conditions are right is only repeating what is said in the GFA, so of course they are all saying that.

Pushing for a border poll in the near future before the conditions have been met is a Sinn Fein policy, divisive and counter-productive though that may be. Plenty of politicians from Martin to Eastwood have called Sinn Fein out on this. However, Sinn Fein are entitled to adopt this position and either you agree with them or you agree with the rest. Pretending that everybody is saying the same thing is ignoring reality.

blanch152 wrote: »

Agreed, the dependence on opinion polls is only one factor.

A majority of nationalist seats in the Assembly would be another.

You don't need a majority of 'nationalist' seats, all you need is a majority willing to have the conversation and put it to the test, democratically...which would bring in the Alliance.

Your willingness to keep the debate and excercising of democracy to two polarised sides is noteworthy here. You are depending on division, in other words.

Progress in integration in the North would be a third.

We are at this juncture because integration is impossible because of partition and it's polarising effect.