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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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TobyHolmes

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

To quote McWilliams from a 2003 version of Prime Time -

"The Irish housing market is a scam, it is an enormous financial swindle that could potentially confine an entire generation of young Irish workers to years of bad debt"

in an ideal world we would all just save our money and buy houses for cash
then no need for mortgages
so there is plenty of vested interest in keeping prices high

Sierra Oscar

The likes of McWilliams was predicting a collapse in house prices at the onset of the pandemic. The opposite has happened and there is a good chance prices will continue to climb given the absence of supply. At this rate it will take years before the supply increases to a level necessary for a functioning housing market. I can understand the mentality of people who want to just get on with it and make a purchase.

The only thing that will lead to a serious suppression in prices is a collapse in demand to meet the significant low levels of supply. I wouldn't be betting on that happening. There are still a lot of wealthy couples out there who are both working and looking to purchase, some with serious cash deposits bolstered by the pandemic and not having to spend a bob in well over a year. I'd argue that any suppression in demand as a result of working from home initiatives and so on won't even register on the market given the colossal collapse in supply.

It could take 5 years for supply to recover from the pandemic to reach the levels necessary to sustain a functioning housing market. Waiting the crisis out might seem sensible, but it has to be balanced with potentially 5 years of not owning a home, 5 years of rental payments and 5 years of paying off a mortgage.

I don't blame people for wanting to get their purchase over with. I remember the discussion from many here in 2016 was that we were in an inflated market, that people should wait for supply to increase so that house prices could settle somewhere along the prices that they were achieving in 2013 - 2014. Yet here we are 5 years later with house prices at record highs and a very real prospect that they will remain so for another few years.

It is bleak as **** and the market is clearly dysfunctional. I just wouldn't immediately buy into the thought that dysfunction = collapse in prices. What we have seen in recent times is that it can work both ways, unfortunately.

cnocbui

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

To quote McWilliams from a 2003 episode of Prime Time -

"The Irish housing market is a scam, it is an enormous financial swindle that could potentially confine an entire generation of young Irish workers to years of bad debt"

Just imagine people who listened to that who have instead paid 17 years worth of rent, with no assets to show for it now.

I can't imagine what he would think of really hot markets like Oz and Nz.

cgcsb

Number of properties asking for less than €200k on daft seems to have increased again. Fixer uppers are looking like particularly good value at the moment.

MacronvFrugals

cnocbui wrote: »

Just imagine people who listened to that who have instead paid 17 years worth of rent insted, with no assets to show for it now.

If only the state listened and put a tranquillizer in the Tiger....

fliball123

TobyHolmes wrote: »

there will be mass emigration due to remote work
people certainly wont be coming here

WFH is not here yet remember employees have been forced to work from home it might be here for the next generation but the general consensus is that a blended working model will be the norm going forward.

Are you certain people wont be coming here as I believe covid has affected the globe so the same race and the same hurdles will exist in other countries..So if your leaving Ireland your also leaving one of the most generous welfare rates globally. Also we had an average of about 35k nett immigration into Ireland pre covid from (2015 to 2019) and even had a plus figure for 2020. Now add in that the government have made the whacko decision to cut the time people will be spending in the refuge centers in Ireland from 8 years to 4 months..Its not hard to cop that we are going to see a huge influx of people coming here. We are already attractive for people looking to speak English (as the only native English speaking country in the EU) add in the high end Tech and Pharma jobs But sure no point arguing we will see when Covid is no longer an issue

TobyHolmes

cnocbui wrote: »

Just imagine people who listened to that who have instead paid 17 years worth of rent insted, with no assets to show for it now.

I can't imagine waht he would think of really hot markets like Oz and Nz.

yeah exactly so they will spend the next 30 years paying off a mortgage and eventually actually own the home when they are 60plus.
instead of just saving for 10 years, and owning the house outright
we should all be encouraged to save for a house
not save for a deposit
but its impossible when house prices are so high

but you can buy a house outright in other countries as prices more reasonable

DataDude

Cyrus wrote: »

Back to the houses, cant say im a fan of the extension here

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/2-woodbine-park-booterstown-dublin/4490549

Don't hate the extension, don't love it - either way, a house of 320m2 on Woodbine road, newly renovated. That's going closer to €2m than €1.5m surely?

Know this is much more impressive from the outside, but given what it would cost to fix up etc. and it'd still be only 2/3rds the size. Makes the other one look like an absolute steal.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/casa-maria-blackrock-co-dublin/4490164

Yurt2

Cyrus wrote: »

no one wants to spend a million on a house if its going to be worth 500k in a years time, i dont think anyone is arguing that, but the point is also well made you cant really worry about what your neighbour paid, depending on when they bought it they could have paid double or 1/5 of what you are paying now.

A friend of mine has great craic with a passive-aggressive neighbour who bought off-plan at the top of the boom, and the estate was a semi-ghost estate for years up until maybe 2014/15.

She kept on needling him how much he paid for the house as it obviously stuck in her craw. He refused to tell her unless she told him how she paid - she gave the figure and he paused before saying: "you f*cking eejit"

fliball123

TobyHolmes wrote: »

yeah exactly so they will spend the next 30 years paying off a mortgage and eventually actually own the home when they are 60plus.
instead of just saving for 10 years, and owning the house outright
we should all be encouraged to save for a house
not save for a deposit
but its impossible when house prices are so high

but you can buy a house outright in other countries as prices more reasonable

I believe that rent is competing in price with a hell of a lot of mortgages currently, good luck saving for those 10 years paying the high rent rates we are currently seeing,

So what if you can buy a house outright in another country in other countries prices for houses are more expensive and you need more savings and a bigger mortgage but neither of these points have any sway in the Irish property market so its a moot point.

Cyrus

DataDude wrote: »

Don't hate the extension, don't love it - either way, a house of 320m2 on Woodbine road, newly renovated. That's going closer to €2m than €1.5m surely?

Know this is much more impressive from the outside, but given what it would cost to fix up etc. and it'd still be only 2/3rds the size. Makes the other one look like an absolute steal.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/casa-maria-blackrock-co-dublin/4490164

Woodlands park is more desirable than woodbine road though.... but i have to say 1.95m for that seems batsh!t

It will be interesting to see what woodbine road goes for, the size is impressive but its very unimaginative and pretty ugly. Someone will buy it.

Or you could buy what is basically being sold as a site in dalkey for 1.5m

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/26-knocknacree-park-dalkey-co-dublin-a96-k8r9/4490615

cnocbui

TobyHolmes wrote: »

yeah exactly so they will spend the next 30 years paying off a mortgage and eventually actually own the home when they are 60plus.
instead of just saving for 10 years, and owning the house outright
we should all be encouraged to save for a house
not save for a deposit
but its impossible when house prices are so high

but you can buy a house outright in other countries as prices more reasonable

I had a 60% deposit for my first house and had the mortgage paid off in about a year with two incomes working on it.

My current house I bought shortly before McBoofhead was saying don't buy. Paid it off some years ago and now I have an asset I can sell to help finance my move to an actullay hot market instead of this slightly warm one.

TobyHolmes

fliball123 wrote: »

I believe that rent is competing in price with a hell of a lot of mortgages currently, good luck saving for those 10 years paying the high rent rates we are currently seeing,

So what if you can buy a house outright in another country in other countries prices for houses are more expensive and you need more savings and a bigger mortgage but neither of these points have any sway in the Irish property market so its a moot point.

you think houses in other countries are more expensive than ireland?
really?
i beg to differ.

my point was as i said we should be encouraged to save for a house not a deposit on a house.
and yes its not easy but its certainly not impossible.
but people are encouraged by society to be in debt so that we stay part of the system.
and whichever way you want to spin in - a mortgage is a debt.

DataDude

Cyrus wrote: »

Woodlands park is more desirable than woodbine road though.... but i have to say 1.95m for that seems batsh!t

It will be interesting to see what woodbine road goes for, the size is impressive but its very unimaginative and pretty ugly. Someone will buy it.

Or you could buy what is basically being sold as a site in dalkey for 1.5m

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/26-knocknacree-park-dalkey-co-dublin-a96-k8r9/4490615

Ah right, I'm not familiar with the specifics of those locations but was saying to my other half that Woodlands Park must be a serious address to justify that price tag!

If I had money to burn, I'd buy that site in Dalkey - imagine what that's going to look like in a couple years when its done!!

Speaking of money to burn - the previously discussed wreck on Breffni Road didn't take long to sell! https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/3-neptune-terrace-breffni-road-sandycove-co-dublin/4486805

TobyHolmes

cnocbui wrote: »

I had a 60% deposit for my first house and had the mortgage paid off in about a year with two incomes working on it.

My current house I bought shortly before McBoofhead was saying don't buy. Paid it off some years ago and now I have an asset I can sell to help finance my move to an actullay hot market instead of this slightly warm one.

yes perfect and thats the way to do it!

fliball123

TobyHolmes wrote: »

you think houses in other countries are more expensive than ireland?
really?
i beg to differ.

my point was as i said we should be encouraged to save for a house not a deposit on a house.
and yes its not easy but its certainly not impossible.
but people are encouraged by society to be in debt so that we stay part of the system.
and whichever way you want to spin in - a mortgage is a debt.

People make a decision to get a mortgage for a number of reasons. Such as they no longer want to live with mam and dad, they have a kid on the way and need the space, the job is a 2 hour commute, kids need to be near to schools etc..these factors will always trump the market forces.

Really so Ireland is the most expensive place to buy a house in the world is that what your saying???

https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings.jsp

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-property-price-growth-lags-international-trends-1.4513727#:~:text=Republic%20ranks%2048th%20out%20off,by%20Turkey%20and%20New%20Zealand&text=Irish%20property%20price%20growth%20lagged,according%20to%20a%20new%20report.

https://www.comparethemarket.com.au/home-contents-insurance/global-cost-of-property/

jill_valentine

fliball123 wrote: »

I believe that rent is competing in price with a hell of a lot of mortgages currently, good luck saving for those 10 years paying the high rent rates we are currently seeing

It's outpacing it comfortably, still. My rent is nearly double what I'd have been paying for a mortgage for some of the apartments I had been working towards before Covidmageddon, and I live in a ****hole. They aren't joking when they call it a trap.

I'm luckier than many, maybe most, in that my parents can help me out deposit wise a bit, but the salary cap is there on the other end too, in case anyone manages to make any headway.

fliball123

jill_valentine wrote: »

It's outpacing it comfortably, still. My rent is nearly double what I'd have been paying for a mortgage for some of the apartments I had been working towards before Covidmageddon, and I live in a ****hole. They aren't joking when they call it a trap.

I feel sorry for anyone in your situation..I hope they can get supply sorted soon but I have absolutely zero confidence in this happening

TobyHolmes

fliball123 wrote: »

People make a decision to get a mortgage for a number of reasons. Such as they no longer want to live with mam and dad, they have a kid on the way and need the space, the job is a 2 hour commute, kids need to be near to schools etc..these factors will always trump the market forces.

Really so Ireland is the most expensive place to buy a house in the world is that what your saying???

https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings.jsp

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-property-price-growth-lags-international-trends-1.4513727#:~:text=Republic%20ranks%2048th%20out%20off,by%20Turkey%20and%20New%20Zealand&text=Irish%20property%20price%20growth%20lagged,according%20to%20a%20new%20report.

https://www.comparethemarket.com.au/home-contents-insurance/global-cost-of-property/

first link relates only to city by city analysis (certainly more cities in the world than what they have listed)
second link refers to GROWTH not the starting point
third link says USA, Russia and Turkey are the most affordable countries in the world.

listen statistics can tell you whatever you want. its experience that offers the truth.

fliball123

TobyHolmes wrote: »

first link relates only to city by city analysis (certainly more cities in the world than what they have listed)
second link refers to GROWTH not the starting point
third link says USA, Russia and Turkey are the most affordable counties in the world.

listen statistics can tell you whatever you want. its experience that offers the truth.

Yeah and if you have a play around with the metrics on the third link it give a sq meter average price per country Ireland is 23rd no where near what your trying to spin. As for the first link Dublin is by far the most expensive city/county in Ireland and this is what is being compared with other cities around the world it would work out even cheaper if a different city in Ireland was used? So can you just agree that your wrong that Ireland is the most expensive country to buy a property in the world and just leave it at that. If you have you any proof Ireland is the most expensive country to buy property in the world could you show it here if you do I will gladly apologise

TobyHolmes

fliball123 wrote: »

Yeah and if you have a play around with the metrics on the third it give a sq meter average per country Ireland is 23rd

ok cool.

TobyHolmes

fliball123 wrote: »

Yeah and if you have a play around with the metrics on the third link it give a sq meter average price per country Ireland is 23rd no where near what your trying to spin. As for the first link Dublin is by far the most expensive city/county in Ireland and this is what is being compared with other cities around the world it would work out even cheaper if a different city was used? So can you just agree that your wrong that Ireland is the most expensive country to buy a property in the world and just leave it at that

you edited your post. but i never said ireland was the most expensive country i said there were cheaper ones than ireland.

its 27th out of 39 countries - its certainly not an impressive figure.

but ok lets move on.....

fliball123

TobyHolmes wrote: »

you think houses in other countries are more expensive than ireland?
really?
i beg to differ.

my point was as i said we should be encouraged to save for a house not a deposit on a house.
and yes its not easy but its certainly not impossible.
but people are encouraged by society to be in debt so that we stay part of the system.
and whichever way you want to spin in - a mortgage is a debt.

TobyHolmes wrote: »

you edited your post. but i never said ireland was the most expensive country i said there were cheaper ones than ireland.

its 27th out of 39 countries - its certainly not an impressive figure.

but ok lets move on.....

Well just before you move on you did say
you think houses in other countries are more expensive than ireland?
really?
i beg to differ.

so that means you thought that Ireland is the most expensive and it isnt

PropQueries

jill_valentine wrote: »

It's outpacing it comfortably, still. My rent is nearly double what I'd have been paying for a mortgage for some of the apartments I had been working towards before Covidmageddon, and I live in a ****hole. They aren't joking when they call it a trap.

I'm luckier than many, maybe most, in that my parents can help me out deposit wise a bit, but the salary cap is there on the other end too, in case anyone manages to make any headway.

I wouldn't worry too much IMO

Many state officials from the Central Bank to the Tanaiste to the Minister of Finance have been signaling tax increases. This must be in conjunction with expenditure cuts. Health and social welfare can't endure much cutbacks. The only current big expenditure is the housing budget from buying new builds to long-term lease agreements to HAP.

Once they cut back, one of the biggest drivers of the current house price and rent increases in the market will be gone.

That's when we will see big drops in both rents and house prices IMO

When will it happen is anyone's guess. My guess? c. July 2021.

TobyHolmes

fliball123 wrote: »

Well just before you move on you did say
you think houses in other countries are more expensive than ireland?
really?
i beg to differ.

so that means you thought that Ireland is the most expensive and it isnt

Ok dude LOL

Mad_maxx

cgcsb wrote: »

Number of properties asking for less than €200k on daft seems to have increased again. Fixer uppers are looking like particularly good value at the moment.

too bad tradesmen cant be gotten for love nor money :mad:

Hubertj

DataDude wrote: »

Don't hate the extension, don't love it - either way, a house of 320m2 on Woodbine road, newly renovated. That's going closer to €2m than €1.5m surely?

Know this is much more impressive from the outside, but given what it would cost to fix up etc. and it'd still be only 2/3rds the size. Makes the other one look like an absolute steal.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/casa-maria-blackrock-co-dublin/4490164

Totally agree. Extension is grand. And when you compare the 2 I think the booterstown propert represents better value. Think the price for black rock sounds high, especially when you tack on the cost of modernisation.

[Deleted User]

Cyrus wrote: »

Back to the houses, cant say im a fan of the extension here

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/2-woodbine-park-booterstown-dublin/4490549

The two different types of wood floor would drive me demented

Pelezico

PropQueries wrote: »

I wouldn't worry too much IMO

Many state officials from the Central Bank to the Tanaiste to the Minister of Finance have been signaling tax increases. This must be in conjunction with expenditure cuts. Health and social welfare can't endure much cutbacks. The only current big expenditure is the housing budget from buying new builds to long-term lease agreements to HAP.

Once they cut back, one of the biggest drivers of the current house price and rent increases in the market will be gone.

That's when we will see big drops in both rents and house prices IMO

When will it happen is anyone's guess. My guess? c. July 2021.

For once I think McWilliams is right. Foolish to buy property now in a highly dysfunctional market.

When government takes away pup the pain will begin.

handlemaster

Pelezico wrote: »

For once I think McWilliams is right. Foolish to buy property now in a highly dysfunctional market.

When government takes away pup the pain will begin.

Central banks will pump money until inflation hits 2% asset classes will rise for a while yet.