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Racing Uncertainties

[Deleted User]

I am starting this with the intention of posting selections for Horse Racing.

Nowt is certain in this game. Hence the title.

One to start off with.

Wolverhampton 7.15 Zafaranah

Mrs Barclay's Mare had a return to form last week when 2nd at the course over the extended mile. The horse has won before at this time of year, and is twice a Course and Distance winner off ratings higher than what she's assessed at tonight.

Available to back at 15/2 and bigger, I give it an each way chance here. Drawn 9 of 11 aint ideal, but I had no say in the box allocation.

I wish myself the best of luck with my thread, and hope to provide many winners and big priced placers.

That's all for now.

Gluck

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[Deleted User]

19/03

Running P & L +1.5pts

Invested 7pts

Returns:

2.55 Fakenham Lostnfound (done ew) places at 28/1 at a fifth the odds returning 6.6pts

Invested 7pts - returns 6.6pts

Loss for the day 0.4pts

And an AP - Santini put up ew on 06/01 for GC. Finishes unplaced.

Invested 2pts - returns 0pts

Loss 2pts + daily loss 0.4pts = 2.4pts

Running invested total - 1,538 pts

Total P & L -0.9pts

[Deleted User]

Had a quick look. A few for tomorrow.

20/03

All EW

Uttoxeter

1.50 Saint Dalina 5/1
2.25 Acey Milan 14/1
3.00 Mint Condition 13/2
3.35 Calett Mad 33/1
5.15 Glance Back 18/1

Newcastle

2.35 Enfin Phil 28/1
4.20 Ilaya 12/1
4.55 Crystal Lad 22/1

Wolverhampton

5.00 Cafe Milano 12/1
6.30 Mabre 22/1

All have some sort of a chance, and the prices are fair/competitive imo. Acca pays over a trillion to 1

Gluck

[Deleted User]

Went for Prime Venture ew as well 3.35- not for thread, but the going should suit..

[Deleted User]

4.10 Uttoxeter Interconnected 2/1 win. Short, but value price here imo.

[Deleted User]

4.45 Utt Lady Cylla 9/2 ew.. Could go well on first start for Sheila Lewis. Topweight here, plus goodish going shud suit.

Luck all

[Deleted User]

6.00 Wol Treacherous 13/2 win.. Should go well here in this grade.

[Deleted User]

Tomorrow 21/03

Ulster Grand National

4 places a fifth on offer here, so will chance 4 ew in this.

Don't like the Bolger/McManus 3/1 jolly at all, and I hope 1 of these obliges.

Amaulino 16/1, Mon Lino 11/1, Frankly All Talk 28/1, Fag An Bealach 9/1

[Deleted User]

19/03 20/03

Running P & L -0.9pts

Invested 24pts. Enfin Phil 2.35 done ew nr. 22pts in play.

Returns:

1.50 Saint Dalina (done ew @ 5/1) wins at a fifth the odds a place with a 10p rule 4 returning 7.4pts
3.00 Mint Condition (done ew) places at 17/2 at a fifth the odds returning 2.7pts
5.00 Cafe Milano (done ew) places at 20/1 at a fifth the odds returning 5pts
4.45 Lady Cylla (done ew @ 9/2) places at a fifth the odds returning 1.9pts

Invested 22pts - returns 17pts

Loss for the day 5pts

Running invested total - 1,560 pts

Total P & L -5.9pts

pottokblue

DJOK riding well at the moment but I think one of JP's horses will win the UlsterNational hes picking up the crumbs after a poor Cheltenham festival. Nicklost will probably place, good luck with Faganbealach, think I'll add to my fantasy pot..

[Deleted User]

Thanks pottokblue

I looked at that Nick Lost, and I put a line through him on account of I think 28fs is too far for him.. Does have the Blackmore factor though, and he has seen some money..

Fag An Bealach is only 7, has course winning form, not sure about the trip, but will give her a chance of staying on the going (been running a lot on soft and heavy - yielding today - , and could be well handicapped here), plus it's only her 7th chase start.

The two Watson horses (Amaulino and Frankly All Talk) I think are guaranteed stayers, and Amaulino is a former winner in 2019, and second in this last year. Both should like the ground too.

And Mon Lino also looks a guaranteed stayer, who'll appreciate the decent underfoot conditions.

I see the 3 shortest priced ones out of the four have seen some support, so am happy with that.

It's a marathon trip, that not many have run at at all too often; but hopefully most of my four picks can give a good account today.

Gluck all

[Deleted User]

Good to yielding the ground has just been described as in DP about 5mins ago.... Good for the selections, I think.. No 'mudlarks' be winning this feature today :pac:

[Deleted User]

4.15 Chepstow Valse Au Taillons 11/4 win

Should like the going, grade, and distance, and has a good chance here in a wide open 5 runner affair, where solid cases can be made for the top 4 in the betting.

[Deleted User]

4.45 Chepstow Arizona Glory 9/1 e/w

If this 5yr old runs his race, he shouldn't be far away here, on his fifth chase outing.

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

Tomorrow 21/03

Ulster Grand National

4 places a fifth on offer here, so will chance 4 ew in this.

Don't like the Bolger/McManus 3/1 jolly at all, and I hope 1 of these obliges.

Amaulino 16/1, Mon Lino 11/1, Frankly All Talk 28/1, Fag An Bealach 9/1

Fag An Bealach wins cosily

Pity didn't get at least a place from one o' t'others; none of whom featured, with Mon Lino the best of the rest coming eighth..

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

4.15 Chepstow Valse Au Taillons 11/4 win

Should like the going, grade, and distance, and has a good chance here in a wide open 5 runner affair, where solid cases can be made for the top 4 in the betting.

2nd

Looked fav about 3 out, but the easy winner Farne always looked like the winner between the 2nd last and last..

pottokblue

Nice winner in the Ulsternational today leffsem.

[Deleted User]

21/03

Running P & L -5.9pts

Invested 11pts

Returns:

3.47 Ulster National - Fag An Bealach (done ew @ 9/1) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 12.8pts
4.45 Arizona Glory (done ew @ 9/1) places (4 plcs a fifth also on offer in this race) returning 2.8pts

Invested 11pts - returns 15.6pts

Profit for the day 4.6pts

Running invested total - 1,571 pts

Total P & L -1.3pts

[Deleted User]

22/03

Looked at Kelso meeting tomorrow and have picked out quite a few.

2.10 Petite Ganache 10/1 ew. Fairly consistent, has place possibilities at a reasonable price.

2.40 Lissen To The Lady 28/1 ew. Not beaten very far over similar trips the last twice; both on goodish ground. May try and make all off a light weight.

3.10 Am gonna oppose the short priced fav Word Has It based on his lto win was on soft/heavy going, and chance 3 ew here.

Bayfriars Bobby 40/1 ew. Am gonna ignore his last three runs, and take into account his first bumper run on better ground than his latest three; which were on heavy. That first run would give him a chance in this.

Dunnottar Castle 12/1 ew. Only his third run, and second hurdles' attempt. Again, looking at his bumper run to make a case for him. Price shorter than I'd like currently, but it never was a 'value selections' thread.

Kitty's Cove 16/1 ew. Two hurdles starts so far, with both of them poor, and on soft ground. Has plenty of decent flat form at this sort of trip though on better ground, and that's the angle here. Price is reasonable.

3.40. Joie De Vivre 9/2 ew. A decent price, and the most likely winner here I think. The fav Golan Cloud wants softer I'd imagine.

Eden Collonges 16/1 ew. Has place prospects. Another one who is far from a value price imo, but will do me here as a second selection in a poor race. On the positive side, he has shown improved form in his latest two runs versus his first five.

4.10 Court Master 4/1 ew. Can go close at an okay price.

Boy's On Tour 22/1 ew. Can make all with his low weight. Can ignore his last two runs as the latest was over too short a trip, and his second last was in a higher grade.

Gluck

[Deleted User]

1.45 Plumpton Wheesht 9/2 win. Can go close.. second last run reads well here.

Mis Casey 150/1 ew. A massive punt. Taking a chance that this better ground might see her in a better light than her most recent outings have shown. I don't think anything has standout claims in this race; not least the top two in the betting.

3.18 Bridle Loanan 13/2 win. Has a sporting chance here.

3.50 Magic River 11/2 win. Trip should suit, and a good second here over shorter last October.

4.20 Prince Percy 28/1 ew. Could be more to come from Gary Moore's 4yr old on his 4th hurdles start. Was a decent second on his first hurdles run at Market Rasen last July. Excuses can be made for his last two attempts over the smaller obstacles. Has plenty of flat experience too.

[Deleted User]

Southwell 2.03 Bran 14/1 ew. Looks a very nice price this. 6 previous hurdles' outings, and many of them error strewn. Latest run reads well here, when he came 4th over slightly further on soft/heavy. I think the minimum trip (just shy of 2m) on ground with a bit of give, but not too soft is perfect for this 6yr old who can put in a better round of jumping on the back of a clear round lto. Could well see this fella see some support. By no means a mortgage job, but definitely appeals on form, and may well go off at half his current odds.

[Deleted User]

22/03

Running P & L -1.3pts

Invested 27pts

Returns:

3.40 Joie De Vivre (done ew) places at 7/1 at a fifth the odds returning 2.4pts ??
3.40 Eden Collonges (done ew @ 16/1) wins at a fifth the odds a place with a 35p rule 4 (?) returning 14.4pts ??
4.10 Court Master (done ew @ 4/1) wins at a quarter the odds a place with a 15p rule 4 returning 6.2pts
1.45 Wheesht (done win @ 9/2) wins returning 5.5pts

Invested 27pts - returns 28.5pts

Profit for the day 1.5pts

Running invested total - 1,598 pts

Total P & L +0.2pts

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

22/03

Running P & L -1.3pts

Invested 27pts

Returns:

3.40 Joie De Vivre (done ew) places at 7/1 at a fifth the odds returning 2.4pts ??
3.40 Eden Collonges (done ew @ 16/1) wins at a fifth the odds a place with a 35p rule 4 (?) returning 14.4pts ??
4.10 Court Master (done ew @ 4/1) wins at a quarter the odds a place with a 15p rule 4 returning 6.2pts
1.45 Wheesht (done win @ 9/2) wins returning 5.5pts

Invested 27pts - returns 28.5pts

Profit for the day 1.5pts

Running invested total - 1,598 pts

Total P & L +0.2pts

Re that 3.40 race ????

Am at a loss

Don't know what the scéal is here... Done both those horses ew at the same time.. The one (Joie De Vivre) I took a shorter price on (9/2) places at 7s, and I get back 2.4 points (no rule 4).... But the winner, who I backed at a bigger price (16s) than what it finished up (11/2) at was subject to the rule 4(s).....

Maybe it's only the winner that gets affected, or perhaps because the placer finished at bigger odds than the price taken, or a combination of both

Anyway, the above were the points returns as reflected by what I got paid out at...

[Deleted User]

4.45 Taunton Mandalayan 16/1 ew

10lb claimer up for the first time. 5plcs on offer. Never tackled 3 miles before; hasn't stayed at around 2 1/2 miles, but this low grade along with the trip, grade, and claiming jockey gives him a squeak here.

[Deleted User]

5.15 Taunton Keepscalling 50/1 ew

Lightly raced, has had a few different trainers. 2nd run after a long absence might see her nab 1 of the 4 places on offer here.

[Deleted User]

24/03

3.12 Haydock Seaston Spirit 13/2 ew

Unlike the Venitia Williams' fav, this one is a guaranteed stayer who will like the ground. Going up the weights, but deservedly so. Kai Lenihan, who has won on him before takes off 10. Slight negative is that he has to put a bad run lto behind him, although he should be well capable of winning this if on a going day.

2.02 Haydock Ey Up Rocky 10/3 win

Has a very good chance here. The good to soft, soft in places ground should be more to his liking than Song Of The Hunter (I hope :P). Price is very fair for the topweight here.

1.30 Informateur 9/2 win

Another one at a nice price who should be bang there with conditions to suit.

Might chance an ew trixie here too, even though only 2 places are available in the 1.30 and 3.12, and just the dead eight in the 2.02.

Gluck

[Deleted User]

23/03

Running P & L +0.2pts

Invested 4pts

Returns - none

Invested 4pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 4pts

Running invested total - 1,602 pts

Total P & L -3.8pts

[Deleted User]

4.35 Market Rasen Joly Maker 6/1 win

Is competitively priced, 2 1/2 miles or thereabouts on good ground (gd to soft declared, and has been running - poorly - on soft/heavy going as of late) should be perfect for him, on a course he has ran well on before over the smaller obstacles. I think the top two in the betting (Getaway North and Picknick Park) would prefer it softer (hope t'rain stays away

) , and that the 3rd fav High Noon @ 4/1 might find a couple too good here (please don't win

), but has definite place prospects, and is the one I fear the most here... Just the one pick in this though..

Hopefully a good day tomorrow, where I cannae find a big-priced one (yet

) , and I think all 4 of the picks have live chances.

Gluck all

[Deleted User]

3.55 Hereford Winter Getaway 7/1 win

No huge confidence behind this one, but it's an open race with no standout contenders imo. A lighty raced mare who's dropping down the weights, and am hoping the first time cheekpieces will bring about the required improvement. The price swings it for me here, and she has won a PtP on good ground.

4.55 Big Chip And Pin 18/1 ew

Yet to win after 14 attempts under rules. Trainer Christian Williams is in good form though, and another with the first time cheekpieces.

5.25 Buckskin 9/1 ew

Price aint great on what he's shown in his three hurdles' runs (all on soft and heavy going mind), but first run in a handicap, after having a first-time wind-op, and could be well-in on over this trip on good ground. I'd rather back him and see him lose (even at the prices, but he may well shorten for all I know) than not, and watch him hose up. A bit to prove on all known hurdles form to date, but his second bumper run (last Oct) on good to firm reads well enough for me here; taking everything else into consideration.

Gluck

[Deleted User]

2.10 Hereford Billygwyn Too 16/1 ew

Two places on offer here, and none of them might go to the prohibitively priced Skelton fav Real Stone, who's deemed a penalty kick (1/7

Generally); presumably based on his would have won, had he not fell at the last latest effort 3 weeks ago.. I don't know why he's so short, as that was ran in a slow enough time, and also a Class 4.

The selection had a good bumper win on his first outing in April 2018... He ran again that May, and hadn't had a race from then (far as I can tell anyhoo) until 2 weeks ago.. That was his first run after an almost 3yr absence, and also for his new trainer Christian Williams. None of the contenders here have standout claims, and that would include the selection's trainer's other runner (Maisie Mix - who's priced the shorter of the two) here. I feel if Billygwyn Too has improved from his latest run, then he can make his presence felt here at a reasonable price.

Also, if the fav is as short tomorrow I may back him 'not to win' if I'm laptop-side come the opening show...

Gluck all

[Deleted User]

3.20 Hereford

In a race where I think the Nicholls' 15/8 2nd fav Wise Glory mightn't stay , and the jolly - Skelton's Ambasssador (13/8 gen) - maybe won't like the ground I'm happy content

to chance 3 EW here.

Jen's Fella 12/1
Good price, first run over hurdles, and seemed to stay 2m well a few times on the AW at Lingfield.. Yet another where the 'equipment' comes out; with the first-time cheekpieces been added.

State Crown 13/2
Has four hurdles' outings behind him; the first two of which were decent. Both came last November over 2m on good ground. That's solid form imo. Main negative is the jockey - Isabel Williams; who gets the seat here for the first time.

Warranty 6/1
Another one who has hurdles experience (4 previous outings). Those were all on soft and heavy going. Did win a flat race at Beverley last July on top of the ground, and wasn't exactly beaten out of sight the three times out of four he's finished over the obstacles; on ground I'm trusting wasn't too his liking.

Enough question marks against the market principals, I feel, and wouldn't be surprised to see one o' t' picks win this.

Gluck all.. I think I've picked as many as I'm gonna from the English meets, unless I get some inspiration later

Think I'll leave Tipperary alone... Hard to pick a winner in EIRE at the best of times, but it looks like a ruddy all bumper card

And thanks to the poster who cleared up my Rule 4 confusion from Monday.

Happy punting Boardies if yis are having a go