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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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Villa05

Gradius wrote:

What kind of blind fool would NOT see it as a problem?

Just For the record what is happening is not the fault of foreign nationals or refugees.

This is a scam feisted upon people working in Ireland by people elected to to represent the best interests of Irish people

This is very much a homegrown issue

[Deleted User]

Gradius wrote: »

When a country...

1) can't build enough housing

2) sells existing housing to vultures

3) gives away free housing to people not even from this continent

All in the face of existing exorbitant costs, yes, of course there's something wrong with "migrants" receiving free housing. You expect a person to work their balls off their whole life and struggle with everything only to see someone from Brazil get gifted a home for life? It's bad enough to see anyone getting the ultimate leg-up for free, practically a lottery win, but not even from this country?

What kind of blind fool would NOT see it as a problem?

Do all migrants get free houses then?
Do Brazilians get free houses?

yagan

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

I was in Australia myself in 2009- 2015. And socialised with fellow irish people via sport and nights out etc.
Different system there though ie we all had to rent. There is no tax payer funded housing for migrants.

Do Brazilian butchers and filipino health staff get free gaffs from the state?

The working conditions revealed by covid in Irish factories is putting me off meat.

As far as I can see there's probably loads of live in indentured slavery happening in wealthy suburbs around Ireland that no one wants to talk about but lets blame the immigrants for the vested interests who've fúcked over this nation which casino driven planning policies.

[Deleted User]

yagan wrote: »

Do Brazilian butchers and filipino health staff get free gaffs from the state?

The working conditions revealed by covid in Irish factories is putting me off meat.

As far as I can see there's probably loads of live in indentured slavery happening in wealthy suburbs around Ireland that no one wants to talk about but lets blame the immigrants for the vested interests who've fúcked over this nation which casino driven planning policies.

In last month 4 families left Ireland from my side.1 family came back home to Eastern Europe were they can enjoy pension from Ireland at home which will pay brazilians working low paid jobs in Ireland.This family working low paid job paid pensions to irish people.They left empty house on renting market which will be easily occupied by cheap brazilians.

Show must go On my friend !

Well,the more cheap labor from Brazil ( around 220 millions population ) will come the more local work force will get smaller wages due with ordinary Competition on jobs market

What will help you buy house cheaper.

enricoh

bubblypop wrote: »

Do all migrants get free houses then?
Do Brazilians get free houses?

No, but theres certainly plenty that do get them for a pittance.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/david-quinn/huge-scale-of-immigration-is-making-our-housing-crisis-worse-35498057.html
Last year, I decided to ask the Department of Social Protection what percentage of rent supplement was paid out to non-Irish EU nationals, and non-EU nationals.

As at February of last year, the figure was 35pc. This is a remarkable total. Remember, 17pc of the population is "foreign-born", so immigrants are over-represented in the figures by two to one.

ExMachina1000

yagan wrote: »

Do Brazilian butchers and filipino health staff get free gaffs from the state?

They might do. 50% of the people registered on the public housing list as per the Irish independent article were non nationals with one third of those being non EU.

Figures quoted were from Dublin city council.

If you are talking about non EU meat workers they are in shared accommodation payed for by employers and if non EU they are on some kind of temporary worker visa.

Building enough houses to hand over to any Irish person who wants or needs one is the stuff of fantasy. The supply is already extremely tight without housing non nationals.

Am I wrong?

L1011

This is not the thread or forum to discuss migration.

yagan

<MOD SNIP>

see previous post.

I only saw your mod note after I'd posted my reply to Exmachina.

thefridge2006

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

I was in Australia myself in 2009- 2015. And socialised with fellow irish people via sport and nights out etc.
Different system there though ie we all had to rent. There is no tax payer funded housing for migrants.

you mean to tell me you don't get free gafs over in Oz worth in the region of €700,000 and €950,000.????????

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/social-tenants-in-rathgar-complex-excluded-from-certain-facilities-1.4415042

Baby01032012

thefridge2006 wrote: »

you mean to tell me you don't get free gafs over in Oz worth in the region of €700,000 and €950,000.????????

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/social-tenants-in-rathgar-complex-excluded-from-certain-facilities-1.4415042

I’m looking forward to this thread getting back on topic on the Irish property market!

thefridge2006

Baby01032012 wrote: »

I’m looking forward to this thread getting back on topic on the Irish property market!

in the region of €700,000 and €950,000....... let that sink in....... DCC bought 19 units

Baby01032012

thefridge2006 wrote: »

in the region of €700,000 and €950,000....... let that sink in....... DCC bought 19 units

Yes I appreciate the craziness. All county councils and voluntary housing associations have masses of money to spend on social housing. However instead of a concerted effort and policy to use this money build social housing it is put into any privately built housing. There is pressure to use funds available. They have deadlines and unit targets to meet. And to buy where multiple units can be bought. No strategic planning or cost analysis is undertaken. I deal with DCC and housing associations who will pay top dollar for top end apartments in most expensive parts of Dublin.

Graham

Gucciblues wrote: »

This is the "Irish Property Market Chat" topic, not the "Selective Elements of the Irish Property Market Chat" topic.

Gucciblues welcome.

Please take a few minutes to familiarise yourself with the forum charter before posting again.

Hubertj

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/dublin-councils-accused-of-wasting-taxpayers-money-by-leasing-social-housing-1.4516158

Does Elon O’Brin read boards.ie? Question still remains how do councils deliver housing short term.

[Deleted User]

enricoh wrote: »

No, but theres certainly plenty that do get them for a pittance.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/david-quinn/huge-scale-of-immigration-is-making-our-housing-crisis-worse-35498057.html
Last year, I decided to ask the Department of Social Protection what percentage of rent supplement was paid out to non-Irish EU nationals, and non-EU nationals.

As at February of last year, the figure was 35pc. This is a remarkable total. Remember, 17pc of the population is "foreign-born", so immigrants are over-represented in the figures by two to one.

I'm 'foreign born' but I'm completely Irish

DataDude

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/5-stradbrook-road-blackrock-co-dublin/4490118

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/greenbank-stradbrook-road-blackrock-co-dublin/4490119

Two identical sized houses, similar plots, same road, same estate agent, put up same day.

Seems a remarkably high premium of €400k for the refurbed one, especially given the C3 BER? The cheaper one is also a better location I think. Am I missing something?

Hubertj

DataDude wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/5-stradbrook-road-blackrock-co-dublin/4490118

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/greenbank-stradbrook-road-blackrock-co-dublin/4490119

Two identical sized houses, similar plots, same road, same estate agent, put up same day.

Seems a remarkably high premium of €400k for the refurbed one, especially given the C3 BER? The cheaper one is also a better location I think. Am I missing something?

I don’t know about the price differential but the house needing renovation is right at the junction. That would put me off - noise from cars, trucks and buses starting and stopping, difficulty driving in and out of driveway etc.

DataDude

Hubertj wrote: »

I don’t know about the price differential but the house needing renovation is right at the junction. That would put me off - noise from cars, trucks and buses starting and stopping, difficulty driving in and out of driveway etc.

Maybe that’s it, thanks. I was thinking that maybe you’d be far back enough off the road that it wouldn’t be too bad. Proximity to dart very handy also. Will take a wander down at some point this week to evaluate.

JimmyVik

Posted this in the wrong thread, so moving it here

I heard on the radio this morning that houses are going for on average €120K over asking.
This is a horrible situation for house buyers and is just taking advantage of the pandemic panic.
I think whats happening is that people buying houses in the €350k price range would have expected to get a half decent house for that.
But now people are bidding up in the fear that houses selling for €220k now will go to the €350k floor and they will have to settle for areas and houses that are total **** holes even above €300k.
There is definitely something wrong with the market here, and estate agents and media stirring panic buying is the cause.

It wont be too long at this rate before €350k only gets you a 2 bed duplex in Ballymun.
People in Dublin will hit the CB ceiling so wont get anything better.
Then you have houses being built all over the place by councils and bought by councils, and rented to councils. Squeezing the ftb and the trader upper out altogether, while costing the taxpayer a fortune.
Its just a total sh1t show out there. If I was looking right now I would hold off for a few years tbh. Something big has to give , and soon.

Graham

I'd want to confirm that €120k over average figure before setting the outrage-o-meter to full.

JimmyVik

Hubertj wrote: »

I don’t know about the price differential but the house needing renovation is right at the junction. That would put me off - noise from cars, trucks and buses starting and stopping, difficulty driving in and out of driveway etc.

I always loved hearing things like this when I was looking at houses

It puts so much of the competition off, but if you ever lived beside a road or a bus stop, or even train tracks, or talk to anyone who has you find that after a week of someone living there they actually dont hear that noise anymore.
So knowing a bit of human psychology, and having experience that others dont can save you hundreds of thousands

People stress about things that are actually trivial when buying a house. If you are bidding use that to your advantage.

JimmyVik

Graham wrote: »

I'd want to confirm that €120k over average figure before setting the outrage-o-meter to full.

Of course, but even reading this thread, its a very, very bloated market at the moment. If, when the pandemic panic is over, hings go back to normal in a year or two, that panic premium will be gone and anyone who has bought in the meantime is going to see the value of their houses fall.
Not a problem if they arent selling, but if it were me I would rather wait and see.

It was one thing last year, but this year is a whole new level.
Just ask anyone looking to buy at the moment.

SmokyMo

Graham wrote: »

I'd want to confirm that €120k over average figure before setting the outrage-o-meter to full.

Agree. Would have hard time believing bank would approve drawdown on a house that is over paid by 100k+

MacronvFrugals

HAP - expected to cost 1 billion this year

Leasing - units from funds = HAP on steroids (fool proof investment)

In 2019 developers left 5% new of stock vacant because they didn't think the market could take it

There is a very strong whiff of artificialness off everything here to the detriment of citizens

Graham

JimmyVik wrote: »

Of course, but even reading this thread, its a very, very bloated market at the moment. If, when the pandemic panic is over, hings go back to normal in a year or two, that panic premium will be gone and anyone who has bought in the meantime is going to see the value of their houses fall.
Not a problem if they arent selling, but if it were me I would rather wait and see.

It was one thing last year, but this year is a whole new level.
Just ask anyone looking to buy at the moment.

Supply has been curtailed, so has demand but anecdotally to a much lesser extent.

No doubt that's going to put upward pressure on prices although I don't for a minute buy the average €120k increase.

Buyers absolutely should keep that in mind when buying now and decide for themselves whether it works for their own financial/familial circumstance.

If someone is paying €20K + in rent each year an/or have struggled to find secure rental accommodation then buying now may suit some regardless of any perceived short term risk.

JimmyVik

Graham wrote: »

Supply has been curtailed, so has demand but anecdotally to a much lesser extent.

No doubt that's going to put upward pressure on prices although I don't for a minute buy the average €120k increase.

Buyers absolutely should keep that in mind when buying now and decide for themselves whether it works for their own financial/familial circumstance.

If someone is paying €20K + in rent each year an/or have struggled to find secure rental accommodation then buying now may suit some regardless of any perceived short term risk.

Looking in other threads on here there are people posting up for example that they are bidding on houses that they see on the PPR for €300k last year, now with asking of €350 and bids keep going up.

I closed a sale in the last year and before I even moved in or even made any changes to it, I got an offer i couldnt refuse to sell it on.
Just my opinion, bu i think there is definitely a panic on.

Smiley11

JimmyVik wrote: »

Posted this in the wrong thread, so moving it here

I heard on the radio this morning that houses are going for on average €120K over asking.
This is a horrible situation for house buyers and is just taking advantage of the pandemic panic.
I think whats happening is that people buying houses in the €350k price range would have expected to get a half decent house for that.
But now people are bidding up in the fear that houses selling for €220k now will go to the €350k floor and they will have to settle for areas and houses that are total **** holes even above €300k.
There is definitely something wrong with the market here, and estate agents and media stirring panic buying is the cause.

It wont be too long at this rate before €350k only gets you a 2 bed duplex in Ballymun.
People in Dublin will hit the CB ceiling so wont get anything better.
Then you have houses being built all over the place by councils and bought by councils, and rented to councils. Squeezing the ftb and the trader upper out altogether, while costing the taxpayer a fortune.
Its just a total sh1t show out there. If I was looking right now I would hold off for a few years tbh. Something big has to give , and soon.

I seriously doubt 120k over is the average but there are absolutely certain desirable homes/areas commanding the panic premium. I honestly can't fathom this market at all but I'd be very interested to know how many of those 120k+ bids transfer into actual sales. Are banks telling these lunatics to cop t.f. on or are they facilitating the frenzy?

Graham

JimmyVik wrote: »

Looking in other threads on here there are people posting up for example that they are bidding on houses that they see on the PPR for €300k last year, now with asking of €350 and bids keep going up.

Yup, I've seen a few examples over the last few months. No doubt there's some upward pressure as I mentioned.

Some of the recent examples including very strong sight-unseen offers I'd take with a large pinch of salt for now but you never know. When things reopen, supply will still be constrained for quite some time while I expect additional demand to appear fairly quickly.

Hubertj

Graham wrote: »

Supply has been curtailed, so has demand but anecdotally to a much lesser extent.

No doubt that's going to put upward pressure on prices although I don't for a minute buy the average €120k increase.

Buyers absolutely should keep that in mind when buying now and decide for themselves whether it works for their own financial/familial circumstance.

If someone is paying €20K + in rent each year an/or have struggled to find secure rental accommodation then buying now may suit some regardless of any perceived short term risk.

Was this now in relation to people bidding on property in Kerry - holiday homes etc? There was something in the examiner about people from overseas virtually viewing and bidding on homes

https://www.irishexaminer.com/property/residential/arid-40246703.html

awec

I think using an actual money figure is misleading. It would better to use the percentage over asking.

IMO using an all up figure is also a bit pointless. You need to be more granular and aknowledge that the market forces in the 1+ million range are different to the market forces in the 500k+ range, that are again different to the sub 500k range etc.