nav[aria-label="Primary Navigation"] { padding: 0; & ul { list-style: none; width: 100%; display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: start; align-items: start; gap: 30px; padding: 0; & li { margin: 0; } & ul li { list-style: none; } } }

Child Item

2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

Find more posts tagged with

Quick Links

Comments

MacronvFrugals

It’s a double edged sword because our company has hired 60% of people from the UK in the last few months fully WFH, these would have been mostly Irish based ore-Covid, for a niche sector it opens up a whole lot of extra talent but not so great for Irish staff.

One way or another this will affect the market imo how can it not.

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

"Bring to market at"

There may be some first mover advantage for the first few sellers but as more and more jump on the bandwagon, more and more will start entering the market and prices will fall below what they were even before the refurbishments etc. I think that's economics 101 and just like when Telecom Eireann started to have competitors, prices will plummet.

Remote working has now made housing little more than a commodity and home ownership will soon be available to everyone no matter how poor they are IMO

There is/will be no difference between living in Swords compared to a similar three bed in e.g. Leitrim and the prices of such houses will be similar.

Unfortunately, places like e.g. Dalkey will be competing with similar wealthy areas around the world so they will be severely impacted (price wise) as well IMO

No, there is no logic in here at all. They were not willing to sell for c.100K to buyers, but they would be if they can get 150K, and they will be ok to sell for 50K, when demands and obvious competition go up from WFH.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

There is absolutely no difference between Swords and Leitrim. If you mentioned a similarly distanced suburb outside e.g. London, I would agree, but Dublin has absolutely nothing to offer that would entice someone to spend an extra c. €200k on a similar type house to be close to it IMO

I think you’re talking a special kind of nonsense now.

Leitrim and Swords are exactly the same in the way Dublin and New York are exactly the same. Am I doing it right?

Or is it that everyone’s elses cities are great places to live? Irish cities are totally different, nobody actually wants to live near them. They’re just forced to?

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

Leo appears to believe this will happen:

"Dublin, Cork, Limerick, Waterford and Galway will be competing with Barcelona, Liverpool, Paris and Lisbon in the battle for talent. And talent can remote work from almost anywhere, so our cities need to be vibrant places where talent wants to live"

But, then again he's only the Tanaiste and his best buddy is only the Minister for Finance.

Link to Leo's interview on RTE: https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0318/1204784-living-wage-varadkar/

You have missed the critical ingredient in sarcasm.

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

No, there is no logic in here at all. They were not willing to sell for c.100K to buyers, but they would be if they can get 150K, and they will be ok to sell for 50K, when demands and obvious competition go up from WFH.

Human psychology. Once they have refurbished and put it up for sale, they would have already spent the sales proceeds in their heads. If they were hoping to get €150k but now realise they will only get €50k, they will take the €50k in most circumstances if they see prices not ever increasing further.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

I think you’re talking a special kind of nonsense now.

Leitrim and Swords are exactly the same in the way Dublin and New York are exactly the same. Am I doing it right?

Or is it that everyone’s elses cities are great places to live? Irish cities are totally different, nobody actually wants to live near them. They’re just forced to?

95% the case for most of the rural folk who were forced to live in Dublin for work purposes and I don't believe many of those Google employees would have chosen to live in Dublin if Google wasn't here.

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

You have missed the critical ingredient in sarcasm.

Probably

I'm fighting several different battles here at the same time

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

Probably I'm fighting several different battles here at the same time

Did you start them, by any chance?

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

95% the case for most of the rural folk who were forced to live in Dublin for work purposes and I don't believe many of those Google employees would have chosen to live Dublin if Google wasn't here.

95%? That’s quite the number.

What’s your source for this claim?

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

Did you start them, by any chance?

No. I just put up a thought and it drives some people nuts for some reason. I kind of have to respond when they dismiss my argument outright

Hubertj

If prices fall as dramatically in Dublin as some geniuses predict it will see a lot of people who were priced out of Dublin move back in. Commuter towns could suffer because people can afford to move back to Dublin. In my opinion.

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

No. I just put up a thought and it drives some people nuts for some reason. I kind of have to respond when they dismiss my argument outright

I can't imagine for the life of my why anyone would dismiss one of your arguments outright.

That's how you do sarcasm.

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

If prices fall as dramatically in Dublin as some geniuses predict it will see a lot of people who were priced out of Dublin move back in. Commuter towns could suffer because people can afford to move back to Dublin. In my opinion.

Exactly. That has been my argument for quite some time. The price premium for city vs rural town prices will fall to maybe 5% maximum. The rural properties will always be there lurking in the background to keep on lid on prices in Dublin from rising even if demand increases due to falling prices.

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

Human psychology. Once they have refurbished and put it up for sale, they would have already spent the sales proceeds in their heads. If they were hoping to get €150k but now realise they will only get €50k, they will take the €50k in most circumstances if they see prices not ever increasing further.

When this phase is expected to happen for tens thousands of vacant rural gaffs?

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

95%? That’s quite the number.

What’s your source for this claim?

Myself. I grew up down the country and Dublin was very rarely mentioned as a place to live when we all left school. The nearest cities, yes, but hardly ever Dublin, unless that was the only place someone could do the university course or find the job they wanted to do.

I like Dublin but there really isn't anything here to entice someone to spend an additional €200k+ on a standard 3 bed to live here if they have the real option to live and work elsewhere. There's really nothing to grab the imagination of the younger folk to entice them to live in Dublin outside of being forced to live here for university or work.

MacronvFrugals

Capital dock has a 46% vacancy rate according to the latest Kennedy Wilson report.

It’s also not just ‘because of Covid’ these things were never filling with the outlandish cost for 1 beds.

Fund build to rent schemes are a sham and most importantly they waste valuable construction employee resources to then lie empty.

Will Ireland ever grow up?

mcsean2163

Just reading here and now understand that all the twenty somethings will be abandoning cities with universities, art galleries, restaurants, bars, nightlife etc. in order to live in the woods in Leitrim. This is fantastic news and hope that all those out bidding us will realise the error of their ways and wish them well in Leitrim.

[Deleted User]

PropQueries wrote: »

There is absolutely no difference between Swords and Leitrim. If you mentioned a similarly distanced suburb outside e.g. London, I would agree, but Dublin has absolutely nothing to offer that would entice someone to spend an extra c. €200k on a similar type house to be close to it IMO

now, this is not true, Dublin has much more than Leitrim ever will.
Theatres, cinemas, resturants, cafes, classes, walks, meet ups, not to mention shops, all within walking or public travel distance.
Thats a big difference, you will have to get into your car to travel to get the weekly grocery shop in a supermarket in Leitrim.
Nothing is convenient in Leitrim. Which is fine for some people who want to live quietly in the countryside, but it's not for everyone.

[Deleted User]

bubblypop wrote: »

now, this is not true, Dublin has much more than Leitrim ever will.
Theatres, cinemas, resturants, cafes, classes, walks, meet ups, not to mention shops, all within walking or public travel distance.
Thats a big difference, you will have to get into your car to travel to get the weekly grocery shop in a supermarket in Leitrim.
Nothing is convenient in Leitrim. Which is fine for some people who want to live quietly in the countryside, but it's not for everyone.

Aside from the most obvious one imo, your friends and family are unlikely to be in Leitrim unless you're from there.

I have lived in a large enough rural town and I have lived in Dublin, there really is nothing that would make me move back to the rural town from Dublin. I don't care how cheap the houses are. Saying there's no difference is just ridiculous.

MacronvFrugals

You now have funds buying portfolios directly and solely targeting social housing from the state, what a great deal But the dogs on the street know most of these developments will go that way.

Is this really sustainable?

39 units in Smithfield are let to Dublin City Council on 25-year inflation-linked lease

Global asset manager Aberdeen Standard Investments (ASI) has made its first investment in Ireland’s fast-growing private rented sector (PRS) market, paying €20 million for a portfolio of 39 apartments in Dublin city centre.

Built by Red Rock Developments, the scheme at 19-20 Blackhall Street in Smithfield promises to deliver a steady and reliable return to ASI’s European Long Income Real Estate Fund, as it is being let in its entirety to Dublin City Council on a 25-year inflation-linked lease.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/aberdeen-standard-fund-pays-20m-for-dublin-apartment-portfolio-1.4500219?mode=amp

PropQueries

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

You now have funds buying portfolios directly and solely targeting social housing from the state, what a great deal But the dogs on the street know most of these developments will go that way.

Is this really sustainable?

39 units in Smithfield are let to Dublin City Council on 25-year inflation-linked lease

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/aberdeen-standard-fund-pays-20m-for-dublin-apartment-portfolio-1.4500219?mode=amp

Does anyone know who is actually paying for the leases on a yearly basis e.g. is it actually DCC or central government?

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Apologies I’m not saying there is anything wrong with Leitrim, I think 1 of the reports on vacant properties showed there area disproportionate number in the county.
Also need to consider the infrastructure where a lot of the vacant properties are depending on stage in life - childcare, schools, broadband - already available or part of NBP etc.

Depends on the state of “vacant” as well. Some geniuses seem to think it is cheap to refurbish a house.

Another of the reports showed a there are a disproportionate number of vacant properties in D4. Not saying there is anything wrong with D4

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

If prices fall as dramatically in Dublin as some geniuses predict it will see a lot of people who were priced out of Dublin move back in. Commuter towns could suffer because people can afford to move back to Dublin. In my opinion.

One of the more sensible arguments peddled on here that WFH won't affect Dublin prices is because people are settled where they live, kids settled in local schools etc and they are unlikely to uproot to their family just because they don't have to be close to the office anymore.

The same will happen in commuter towns. People moved to these towns in the first place because they were priced out of Dublin, but having established their lives there I cannot see them rushing back to the city because the houses are cheaper.

Certainly there is nobody in Greystones hoping that prices fall so they can move to Dublin.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Another of the reports showed a there are a disproportionate number of vacant properties in D4. Not saying there is anything wrong with D4

With neighbours like me I can see why people would leave their houses and apartments vacant.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

One of the more sensible arguments peddled on here that WFH won't affect Dublin prices is because people are settled where they live, kids settled in local schools etc and they are unlikely to uproot to their family just because they don't have to be close to the office anymore.

The same will happen in commuter towns. People moved to these towns in the first place because they were priced out of Dublin, but having established their lives there I cannot see them rushing back to the city because the houses are cheaper.

Certainly there is nobody in Greystones hoping that prices fall so they can move to Dublin.

I agree with you to an extent but places like Greystones have a lot more going for it than just being within commuting distance of Dublin.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

I agree with you to an extent but places like Greystones have a lot more going for it than just being within commuting distance of Dublin.

Nowadays yes, but it wasn't always the case. Greystones has thrived because people were priced out of Dublin and made their lives here instead. As more people came, amenities followed, and more people followed the amenities etc etc.

My parents moved to the area from SCD in 1975 and my mother hated it.

My predictions for the impact of WFH is seeing a lot more towns filling up with new residents and ambitions to be like Greystones, and the transformation of these places happening much quicker.

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

I agree with you to an extent but places like Greystones have a lot more going for it than just being within commuting distance of Dublin.

But is it more to do with the people than the actual area? Like minded people generally live in the same areas. If that's down to education, similar class etc., I don't know, but most likely. Also, people who feel safe are generally more relaxed, friendly and open to strangers.

An influx of new people into an area like Greystones (even if they believe they're like minded) could change its appeal very quickly. I'm also thinking of the possible future use for e.g. Marina Village and it's possible impact on the town.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Nowadays yes, but it wasn't always the case. Greystones has thrived because people were priced out of Dublin and made their lives here instead. As more people came, amenities followed, and more people followed the amenities etc etc.

My parents moved to the area from SCD in 1975 and my mother hated it.

My predictions for the impact of WFH is seeing a lot more towns filling up with new residents and ambitions to be like Greystones, and the transformation of these places happening much quicker.

Greystones is right on the sea and very commutable to Dublin and also has the dart to be fair it’s an anomaly in that regard.

thefridge2006

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Just reading here and now understand that all the twenty somethings will be abandoning cities with universities, art galleries, restaurants, bars, nightlife etc. in order to live in the woods in Leitrim. This is fantastic news and hope that all those out bidding us will realise the error of their ways and wish them well in Leitrim.

twenty somethings will be going to college virtually for the foreseeable....i dont know many twenty somethings too interested in art galleries, especially interested enough to move to Dublin. twenty somethings eat in chain restaurants and finally twenty somethings couldn't care less where or what type of bars they attend as long as they get in and served with the opposite sex.
I'm a Dub and it really is an over priced kip.

Gradius

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

You now have funds buying portfolios directly and solely targeting social housing from the state, what a great deal But the dogs on the street know most of these developments will go that way.

Is this really sustainable?

39 units in Smithfield are let to Dublin City Council on 25-year inflation-linked lease

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/aberdeen-standard-fund-pays-20m-for-dublin-apartment-portfolio-1.4500219?mode=amp

When you have entities from here, there and everywhere queuing up at the door to buy your stuff, they aren't your new friends, they're here to capitalise on your stupidity, ad infinitum. You're so f'in stupid it's famous, the word on your stupidity has spread around.

Not to mention whether you should be selling at all.

1) you can't build enough housing because it's so expensive, apparently
2) instead, you'll sell what you do have mega cheap, then rent it back for many multiples of the price in perpetuity.

Something absolutely stinks in this country, something is fundamentally wrong and it's going to come back on us all, every last one of us with no exception spared.