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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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Beigepaint

"The_Conductor;116608671&#8221 wrote:

We seem to be great at giving people posts where they can stand up and pontificate about whatever takes their fancy- we have far too many people appointed to such positions already.

Do you know, off the top of your head, the name of the leader (??) head (??) or gen sec (??) on the Citizens Assembly on the right to life of the unborn? I’m afraid I don’t and I would be fairly surprised if you told me that he our she makes more than a TD!

"The_Conductor;116608671&#8221 wrote:

Why in god's name do we need a 'citizen's assembly' ontop of all the layers of bureaucracy we already have? Seems like a nice little earner for whoever gets appointed to it.......?

The Citizens Assembly on the right to life of the unborn cut through the propaganda, the influence of the church and the influence of foreign funded crazy persons to interview thousands of Irish people to find out what Irish people think about abortion. It’s work is complete and now we have a reference document which is good for the next generation or maybe two.

Wouldn’t it be nice to have a Citizens Assembly on transport and housing to: cut through the propaganda and political machines, the influence of the government inflating the market and the influence of foreign funded companies who profit from vapour locked government to interview thousands of Irish people to find out what Irish people think about where houses should be built and how many, and how we should get from there to work and back.

Imagine one year elapses and its work is complete and now we have a reference document which is good for the next generation or maybe two.

The white paper on housing and transport. Imagine it.

The_Conductor

Beigepaint wrote: »

Do you know, off the top of your head, the name of the leader (??) head (??) or gen sec (??) on the Citizens Assembly on the right to life of the unborn? I’m afraid I don’t and I would be fairly surprised if you told me that he our she makes more than a TD!

From memory its Catherine Day- a former Secretary General of the EU Commission.

Beigepaint wrote: »

The Citizens Assembly on the right to life of the unborn cut through the propaganda, the influence of the church and the influence of foreign funded crazy persons to interview thousands of Irish people to find out what Irish people think about abortion. It’s work is complete and now we have a reference document which is good for the next generation or maybe two.

Perhaps. However- the point I am making is why do we need another layer of bureaucracy. The Dáil and the Seanad are supposed to reflect the wishes of the people. If we need a further body to reflect the wishes of the people- obviously, the current bodies are not functioning properly.

Politicians are supposed to reflect the wishes of the people- and a Ministerial Portfolio is a national portfolio- it is should not be ticket to spend silly money on vanity projects or local issues to try and bribe voters.

Our current system does not work. Adding another assembly- because it works better- does not detract from the fact that the pre-existing assemblies (plr) do not work. In fact it highlights how dysfunctional the pre-existing system is. Thats the point I was trying to make (badly).

Beigepaint wrote: »

Wouldn’t it be nice to have a Citizens Assembly on transport and housing to: cut through the propaganda and political machines, the influence of the government inflating the market and the influence of foreign funded companies who profit from vapour locked government to interview thousands of Irish people to find out what Irish people think about where houses should be built and how many, and how we should get from there to work and back.

Wouldn't it be nice- to not need a Citizens Assembly on anything- but to have a parliament that works- for the Irish people?

Beigepaint wrote: »

Imagine one year elapses and its work is complete and now we have a reference document which is good for the next generation or maybe two.

The white paper on housing and transport. Imagine it.

How many white papers on housing have been commissioned since Peter Bacon's first report in 1996? Several. Each is gathering dust on a shelf (somewhere). Those reports were all lauded as being prescient and offering a roadmap for the future. Instead- they were seen as being politically untenable- and were shoved up onto a shelf.

We need a democratic system that reflects the wishes of the Irish people- and works for the Irish people as a whole, not for small little constituencies scattered around the country. Parish-pump-politics has been the destruction of the country and will continue to be- until such time as it is dealt with.

The only benefit of a Citizen's Assembly over a formal political setting- is the hundred members are not representing a formal constituency, they are random people from around the country- and politicians, members of the media or people who have made representations on matters under deliberation- are all excluded from being members- i.e. it is supposed to be a random group of Irish people, the core qualifying criterion is they have to be eligible to vote in any Irish referendums.

The whole raison d'etre of the Citizens Assembly- is to reflect the wishes of a random swathe of the population. That we need a separate Citizen's Assembly- highlights the fact that the Dáil and the Seanad (to say nothing of the local authorities, county councils and various Lord Mayors etc) are completely and utterly failing to reflect the wishes of the people. This is the whole point.

We need to redesign the system from the bottom up- the current structure is not fit for purpose.

[Deleted User]

Nobody interested let you buy house cheaper.Lets start from there guys.

The_Conductor

Deleted User wrote: »

Nobody interested let you buy house cheaper.Lets start from there guys.

None of the proposals on the table are going to let you buy a house cheaper- that is the knux of the issue. And some of the proposals will penalise anyone other than multinational REITs and large landlords- everyone else is expendable.

At the moment- its a race to the bottom- who can make the most rash promises to the largest number of prospective voters, and ideally, not be left holding the baby when the music stops.

Our little country is not just bankrupt- we are in hock to the tune of 50k for every man woman and child in the country- and its costing us 8 billion per annum just to service this debt, right now, with interest rates as low as they are.

We cannot afford any more madcap schemes to plamás first time buyers (or any other group)- our system is broken.

Beigepaint

The_Conductor wrote: »

From memory its Catherine Day- a former Secretary General of the EU Commission.

Perhaps. However- the point I am making is why do we need another layer of bureaucracy. The Dáil and the Seanad are supposed to reflect the wishes of the people. If we need a further body to reflect the wishes of the people- obviously, the current bodies are not functioning properly.

Politicians are supposed to reflect the wishes of the people- and a Ministerial Portfolio is a national portfolio- it is should not be ticket to spend silly money on vanity projects or local issues to try and bribe voters.

Our current system does not work. Adding another assembly- because it works better- does not detract from the fact that the pre-existing assemblies (plr) do not work. In fact it highlights how dysfunctional the pre-existing system is. Thats the point I was trying to make (badly).

Wouldn't it be nice- to not need a Citizens Assembly on anything- but to have a parliament that works- for the Irish people?

How many white papers on housing have been commissioned since Peter Bacon's first report in 1996? Several. Each is gathering dust on a shelf (somewhere). Those reports were all lauded as being prescient and offering a roadmap for the future. Instead- they were seen as being politically untenable- and were shoved up onto a shelf.

We need a democratic system that reflects the wishes of the Irish people- and works for the Irish people as a whole, not for small little constituencies scattered around the country. Parish-pump-politics has been the destruction of the country and will continue to be- until such time as it is dealt with.

The only benefit of a Citizen's Assembly over a formal political setting- is the hundred members are not representing a formal constituency, they are random people from around the country- and politicians, members of the media or people who have made representations on matters under deliberation- are all excluded from being members- i.e. it is supposed to be a random group of Irish people, the core qualifying criterion is they have to be eligible to vote in any Irish referendums.

The whole raison d'etre of the Citizens Assembly- is to reflect the wishes of a random swathe of the population. That we need a separate Citizen's Assembly- highlights the fact that the Dáil and the Seanad (to say nothing of the local authorities, county councils and various Lord Mayors etc) are completely and utterly failing to reflect the wishes of the people. This is the whole point.

We need to redesign the system from the bottom up- the current structure is not fit for purpose.

I think we are in agreement on the situation but we differ on the course of action.

I think we need a citizens assembly for exactly the reasons you mention. The Dáil is deadlocked, Local Authorities take action contrary to government policy. Short term nimbyism is the fairest assessment of national behaviour.

Adding another assembly - because it works better - is exactly the reason to do it.

It’s a much smaller bite of the elephant than overhauling the entire political system.

Pelezico

There will be gentle inflation and no interest rate increases. That is the solution to our debt....it will be monetised and we start again.

Good for mortgage holders. Bad for those on fixed income

The_Conductor

Pelezico wrote: »

There will be gentle inflation and no interest rate increases. That is the solution to our debt....it will be monetised and we start again.

Good for mortgage holders. Bad for those on fixed income

It would be nice if what you're saying came to pass- however, this is not consistent with comments from the ECB.

In addition we have to balance our budget again by 2025.

It ain't going to be pretty.

Pelezico

The_Conductor wrote: »

It would be nice if what you're saying came to pass- however, this is not consistent with comments from the ECB.

In addition we have to balance our budget again by 2025.

It ain't going to be pretty.

You are being alarmist. The scale of wealth destruction and cash printing over the last year is so great that nobody will balance anything.

If you have cash, buy real assets such as commodities or staples. Housing will fall behind inflation but will increase in nominal terms. Mortgages will whittle away. But wages wont go far because of inflation and those working in public service may suffer as no increase.

There is no other solution, certainly not interest rate increases or traditional belt tightening.

The_Conductor

Lets revisit this in 2-3 years time and see what has happened in the intervening period of time.

yagan

Pelezico wrote: »

There is no other solution, certainly not interest rate increases or traditional belt tightening.

I remember the 'inflation will eat the mortgage debt" mantra back in the bubble days, and we're still waiting. That line of thinking was promoted by western demographic baby boom driving inflation, whereas it's Japan all the way from here for Europe.

The Pandemic Bonds are purpose specific so unless every EZ experiences private debt issues like Ireland then there ain't going to be any strategic inflation. The EU simply has more savers than indebted.

The_Conductor

Ignoring the pandemic bonds altogether for the time being- our expenditure has raced ahead- while our taxation income hollowed (mostly through reduced VAT income, rather than large cuts in income tax).

Our books have gotten out of kilter. We need to both cut expenditure- and increase taxation (the actual balance between these two will be interesting, however, I'd suggest that the capacity to support further taxation is limited).

All of this- is before we even look at the difficult decisions that are going to have to be made regarding pensions, our rapidly shrinking dependency ratio and other facts.

thefridge2006

bubblypop wrote: »

If she wants the country to go completely belly up, she should.

Our current shower are doing their best as we speak anyway...

Yurt2

yagan wrote: »

I remember the 'inflation will eat the mortgage debt" mantra back in the bubble days, and we're still waiting. That line of thinking was promoted by western demographic baby boom driving inflation, whereas it's Japan all the way from here for Europe.

The Pandemic Bonds are purpose specific so unless every EZ experiences private debt issues like Ireland then there ain't going to be any strategic inflation. The EU simply has more savers than indebted.

Bingo. Europe is on the same economic trajectory as Japan after their bubble popped in the early 90s, but Fritz and Francois are in denial about it since the GFC, with very little to fix it IMO. The broken record rhetoric of indolent southerners vs frugal and industrious northerners needs to stop. We're in the same boat and it's going the same direction mostly due to Franco-German (particularly German) priorities holding sway.

For the longest time, Japan was decried as the sick man of the world economy -- and it has structural problems like a proliferation of large zombie companies. But, long ago, Japanese central bankers, politicians and industry sat down and decided that this it how it just is now. Their extremely high levels of debt doesn't get anyone excited anymore as it's internally held for the most part. Last time I checked, Mr Watanabe from Kobe or Sapporo is doing just fine. They've certainly learned their lesson with bonkers asset prices, particularly with land.

yagan

Yurt! wrote: »

They've certainly learned their lesson with bonkers asset prices, particularly with land.

Have they?

From what little I understand of the Japanese situation private corporate debt became ossified, littering Japan with zombie companies like we had zombie banks. There is supposedly still a strong denial about not realising loses by corporate champions.

As the domestic corporate champions were allowed to bury their losses domestic Japanese investors had to look abroad for returns, hence the Wantabes you mention.

However AIB recently sold off 3,500 distressed mortgages as they know that unlike in Japan there's zero domestic support in further bailouts, so further gradual consolidation of the private debt pile is the only course left.

Yurt2

yagan wrote: »

Have they?

From what little I understand of the Japanese situation private corporate debt became ossified, littering Japan with zombie companies like we had zombie banks. There is supposedly still a strong denial about not realising loses by corporate champions.

As the domestic corporate champions were allowed to bury their losses domestic Japanese investors had to look abroad for returns, hence the Wantabes you mention.

However AIB recently sold off 3,500 distressed mortgages as they know that unlike in Japan there's zero domestic support in further bailouts, so further gradual consolidation of the private debt pile is the only course left.

It may surprise a lot of people, but the low-interest rate environment we've been used to in the last few years has created zombie firms (low growth, roll-over debt, low productivity) all across the developed world just as Japan did in the mid-90s, and as a percentage of listed firms, we're (the EU broadly) at a similar place as Japan -- it's just that nobody wants to acknowledge it.

The Eurozone via monetary (and at national level fiscal) exports inflation like nobodies business just as Japan does (a German priority). This suits aging wealthy countries like Germany again.

In Japan inelastic asset prices such as land is in a much healthier place than in the late-80s for sure. And another thing to note about Japanese zombie firms, as unhealthy as they are -- unlike a zombie bank, they are often still part of the productive economy, make things, and employ millions of Japanese workers. Put simply, the Japanese can afford to do this and it's probably a net good not to have millions of Japanese unemployed destabilising the country for real.

The 'tighten the belt' merchants are toying with fire. Another round of austerity like we saw post-GFC will see Italy crash and burn out of the euro and EU, probably taking countries like Spain with them. If people have twisted knickers about the 5-Star Movement and Salivini, they ain't seen nothing yet.

yagan

Yurt! wrote: »

The 'tighten the belt' merchants are toying with fire. Another round of austerity like we saw post-GFC will see Italy crash and burn out of the euro and EU, probably taking countries like Spain with them. If people have twisted knickers about the 5-Star Movement and Salivini, they ain't seen nothing yet.

I remember both La Pen and 5 Star altered their stance on dropping the Euro when their polling said that while their voters liked their debts in Franc and Lira they wanted their wages and savings in Euro.

The dutch election is showing the far right losing the gains they made in 2017.

A century ago Europe was a quarter of the worlds population, but now that's around 8% and falling in a world of rising competing economic blocs. The future is elsewhere.

We're gone way off topic, but I think the Irish promotion of housing as a hedge against inflation completely is mismatched against the bigger picture of the EU economy where low inflation is the norm.

Tea drinker

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I sense this premium is leading to even more discontent among the 18-34s and we all know where that’s going to lead...

Off topic but this week my sister got outbid by “a state body with lots of money” according to the EA, wasn’t much only an extra 20k but it seriously pissed her off, again that 18-34 demo that are almost certain to lash out when given their next opportunity!

The move from direct provision is going to be painful, a lot of Irish waiting on council houses will be leapfrogged by DP, and will continue to do so as the West is successful at manufacturing refugees.

I wouldn't expect any change from this policy, and most of the 18-34 will be voting for more of the same, even if it impoverishes themselves.

JimmyVik

Tea drinker wrote: »

The move from direct provision is going to be painful, a lot of Irish waiting on council houses will be leapfrogged by DP, and will continue to do so as the West is successful at manufacturing refugees.

I wouldn't expect any change from this policy, and most of the 18-34 will be voting for more of the same, even if it impoverishes themselves.

Cant wait to see what Sinn Fein do when they get into government and have keep all their promises plus deal with all this social burden that FF/FG are leaving on the table for them.
Its going to be carnage.

cnocbui

JimmyVik wrote: »

Cant wait to see what Sinn Fein do when they get into government and have keep all their promises plus deal with all this social burden that FF/FG are leaving on the table for them.
Its going to be carnage.

You might want to check the cirrently buying selling thread and check back a few posts...

As for Sinn Fein - shouldn't the blame lie with FF/FG, rather than pre-blaming them before they have even gotten into power?

JimmyVik

cnocbui wrote: »

You might want to check the cirrently buying selling thread and check back a few posts...

As for Sinn Fein - shouldn't the blame lie with FF/FG, rather than pre-blaming them before they have even gotten into power?

Not blaming anyone. I find it amusing. Politics is going to cost us all a hell of a lot.

mcsean2163

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/10a-clonkeen-crescent-dun-laoghaire-co-dublin/4489546

700k for what seems to have been a corner garden with no parking seems a lot or maybe I'm not reading it right? We've two cars, so not sure at all how it'd work for us....

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

That's what I don't understand. Back in January 2020, noone predicted this level of housing "shortage". We still built over 20k residential units last year (not much less than 2019). People still died (i.e. probate sales).

So, why wasn't this supply shortage predicted?

It wasn't predicted because it doesn't exist IMO

schmittel wrote: »

This current supply shortage is surely down to covid. Not exactly an ideal time to be putting house on the market to put it mildly! I share your cynicism about the shortage hysteria, but in fairness, nobody back in Jan 2020 could have predicted the current circumstances.

Really so at a time when prices are going through the roof and you see it as not a good time to put a house on the market. Now is exactly the time to put it up. The future is a complete unknown but what is certain is if you put your house up on the market now you will get a lot more than you did this time last year with the ravenous demand that is out there.

People have been calling out a supply shortage for years and have been saying we need x amount of new builds to keep up with supply and even do we built 20/21k houses last year the amount of build commencements was down 20% in 2020 and we have been in lockdown for the first 3 and maybe up to 5 months in 2021. Surely you have seen all the links put up even you 2 are not that blind with regards to the new builds needed for our future population.

The other side is as I pointed out a lot of people will not buy the most expensive thing they will possibly ever purchase (a property) with out seeing it and currently you cannot view a property so a lot of demand is growing add in those on PUP payments have been told they cannot get a mortgage so once things go back to normal this demand will also come on stream.

Even do people died we still had a net migration inward of a few thousands in 2020 and births are still out stripping deaths in this country as has been the case for the last 100 years. So they all need somewhere to live. You cannot argue that there are deaths and then ignore the birth rate has been higher each year for the last 100 years. So please stop saying this props without it being in the right context. Do I need to put the link back up to this stat props its getting tiresome?

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Actually no I think both tax rises and spending cuts.

The housing budget can easily be cut by just telling potential sellers or leasors that they can either agree to a lower price/rent or they will tax or regulate the bejesus out of them

There will be neither in this budget as this is the only thing keeping FF/FG in government the promise that they will not tax or cut their way out. If they back track they are gone as it will hit the majority of their voting base

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

I think we might have an election before 2024!

If FF/FG increase tax you can be sure there will be a G.E within 6 months of them doing this

mcsean2163

fliball123 wrote: »

There will be neither in this budget as this is the only thing keeping FF/FG in government the promise that they will not tax or cut their way out. If they back track they are gone as it will hit the majority of their voting base

I think the majority of FF/FG voting base understand that you can't borrow forever...

DataDude

fliball123 wrote: »

Really so at a time when prices are going through the roof and you see it as not a good time to put a house on the market. Now is exactly the time to put it up. The future is a complete unknown but what is certain is if you put your house up on the market now you will get a lot more than you did this time last year with the ravenous demand that is out there.

Just one personal anecdote, but a close friend of mine has tried to do this. Nice second home in SCD in the €500-700k price range. Previously turned down offers in 2019 and removed from market. Heard about the current "frenzy" and was talked into relisting by the EA.

A fair while on the market now. Lot of "interest" but highest offer is still over 5% shy of the highest offer from 2019. I feel like it's always the same. Buyers always say the market is mad and booming. Sellers, not so much.

Hubertj

mcsean2163 wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/10a-clonkeen-crescent-dun-laoghaire-co-dublin/4489546

700k for what seems to have been a corner garden with no parking seems a lot or maybe I'm not reading it right? We've two cars, so not sure at all how it'd work for us....

Another house getting a price tag simply because of its address.

Cyrus

mcsean2163 wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/10a-clonkeen-crescent-dun-laoghaire-co-dublin/4489546

700k for what seems to have been a corner garden with no parking seems a lot or maybe I'm not reading it right? We've two cars, so not sure at all how it'd work for us....

not sure if there is room for one car at the front? or if the parking is on the lawn :rolleyes:

JimmyVik

fliball123 wrote: »

There will be neither in this budget as this is the only thing keeping FF/FG in government the promise that they will not tax or cut their way out. If they back track they are gone as it will hit the majority of their voting base

Personally I will vote SF if FF/FG tax me any more in any way. I dont care what reason they give.

fliball123

mcsean2163 wrote: »

I think the majority of FF/FG voting base understand that you can't borrow forever...

No you cant but when you keep spending the way they have been and are still giving payrises to the ps and not cutting welfare or ps pay and pensions before raising taxes they wont have a leg to stand on