2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

schmittel wrote: »

Well if you're saying he is will raise taxes to pay for the ever increasing HAP/lease spend, rather than try to reduce the spend, then I agree with that!

Taxes won’t increase short term, spending will be reduced / more targeted. Many eu countries will be running deficits for a few years, fiscal rules will reform. Opposition parties will kick up a stink, Sinn Fein will lie about how much they will spend but it will be all ok. On and on and on. I think taxe rises won’t be on cards until 2024 when they have better idea of recovery. EU will bring in oversight on public expenditure - billions to be saved in health and elsewhere. Troika by back door.

schmittel wrote: »

I agree it can be done quite easily I just don't think the appetite to do it is there yet.

I think when covid is in the rear view mirror the even more terrifying threat of SF will focus the minds, and we'll see a bit of steel then. But it will be too little too late.

Well, it's either this year or next year. And, next year, we're one more year closer to an election.

If I was FG/FF/Greens, I would get the tax rises out of the way now. By next year people will just accept them as the new normal IMO

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Taxes won’t increase short term, spending will be reduced / more targeted. Many eu countries will be running deficits for a few years, fiscal rules will reform. Opposition parties will kick up a stink, Sinn Fein will lie about how much they will spend but it will be all ok. On and on and on. I think taxe rises won’t be on cards until 2024 when they have better idea of recovery. EU will bring in oversight on public expenditure - billions to be saved in health and elsewhere. Troika by back door.

I think we might have an election before 2024!

schmittel wrote: »

I think we might have an election before 2024!

It would be interesting if there was. If Paschal doesn't pull in the spending this year, FG can't run as the fiscally responsible party and they're finished worse than back in 2002 IMO

Given our national debt, the public won't buy big spending promises and SF may actually run on a fiscal responsibility ticket and win over the middle class on that one IMO

If Paschal pulls in the purse strings this year, they have at least some chance. If he doesn't, FG are finished for good IMO

schmittel wrote: »

I think we might have an election before 2024!

Could well but thing is latest polls indicate SF has plateaued. Could be a few reasons. Only a % of population will lower themselves to vote SF as bad as the current lot are.People don’t buy the bullsh*t they are selling and see it for the Uber populism it is. They see how bad they govern in the north. Wrong forum for it...

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Could well but thing is latest polls indicate SF has plateaued. Could be a few reasons. Only a % of population will lower themselves to vote SF as bad as the current lot are.People don’t buy the bullsh*t they are selling and see it for the Uber populism it is. They see how bad they govern in the north. Wrong forum for it...

SF plateauing at nearly 30%. As things stand right now I would not bet against them leading the next government.

Wrong forum for detailed discussion on the politics yes, but there is no doubt the potential of an SF government is a massive factor in the property market.

schmittel wrote: »

SF plateauing at nearly 30%. As things stand right now I would not bet against them leading the next government.

Wrong forum for detailed discussion on the politics yes, but there is no doubt the potential of an SF government is a massive factor in the property market.

Just thinking of who’d they’d have in the coalition. And we laughed at trump

Beigepaint

PropQueries wrote: »

It would be interesting if there was. If Paschal doesn't pull in the spending this year, FG can't run as the fiscally responsible party and they're finished worse than back in 2002 IMO

Given our national debt, the public won't buy big spending promises and SF may actually run on a fiscal responsibility ticket and win over the middle class on that one IMO

If Paschal pulls in the purse strings this year, they have at least some chance. If he doesn't, FG are finished for good IMO

Paschal’s main job for now is to prepare a good handover for Pearse.

Graham

Mod Note

folks please take the political discussion/speculation to the appropriate forum if you wish to continue the discussion.

Do not reply to this post.

Thanks

Pelezico

schmittel wrote: »

This current supply shortage is surely down to covid. Not exactly an ideal time to be putting house on the market to put it mildly! I share your cynicism about the shortage hysteria, but in fairness, nobody back in Jan 2020 could have predicted the current circumstances.

It is a brilliant time to be putting your house on the market: there is no competition and it will sell at a premium in a few weeks.

MacronvFrugals

Pelezico wrote: »

It is a brilliant time to be putting your house on the market: there is no competition and it will sell at a premium in a few weeks.

I sense this premium is leading to even more discontent among the 18-34s and we all know where that’s going to lead...

Off topic but this week my sister got outbid by “a state body with lots of money” according to the EA, wasn’t much only an extra 20k but it seriously pissed her off, again that 18-34 demo that are almost certain to lash out when given their next opportunity!

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I sense this premium is leading to even more discontent among the 18-34s and we all know where that’s going to lead...

Off topic but this week my sister got outbid by “a state body with lots of money” according to the EA, wasn’t much only an extra 20k but it seriously pissed her off, again that 18-34 demo that are almost certain to lash out when given their next opportunity!

That’s very unfortunate for your sister. Why is she trying to buy at present considering how bad supply is? Rent v mortgage?

Pelezico

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I sense this premium is leading to even more discontent among the 18-34s and we all know where that’s going to lead...

Off topic but this week my sister got outbid by “a state body with lots of money” according to the EA, wasn’t much only an extra 20k but it seriously pissed her off, again that 18-34 demo that are almost certain to lash out when given their next opportunity!

It is like a black comedy. Her taxes will have to increase to enable state actors to compete with her when she is trying to buy a house.

Effectively, she is bidding against herself.

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I sense this premium is leading to even more discontent among the 18-34s and we all know where that’s going to lead...

Off topic but this week my sister got outbid by “a state body with lots of money” according to the EA, wasn’t much only an extra 20k but it seriously pissed her off, again that 18-34 demo that are almost certain to lash out when given their next opportunity!

I wonder what the home would have sold for if the state wasn't the counter-bidder? You say "only an extra €20k", but the state's involvement in the bidding process could have easily meant an extra €100k if the state was the counter-bidder IMO

It's reported in the Irish Times today that the HSE has purchased the Blarney Hotel for €3m.

Is there anything in EU competition law that could halt all these purchases of new and second-hand homes and businesses by the state using borrowed money?

Whether you're buying a family home, an investment property or private business, there's a fair chance the state is your counter-bidder. And, it appears they're using the current covid crisis as cover to borrow more and more to fund these purchases and outbid or at least increasing the end selling price for all other potential buyers in the marketplace.

The Blarney Hotel is a good example. What would that have sold for if the state wasn't involved in the bidding process. It could have given the next potential e.g. Jurys their chance to start off IMO

Link to HSE purchase of the Blarney Hotel here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/hse-acquires-blarney-hotel-for-3m-1.4510020

cnocbui

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I sense this premium is leading to even more discontent among the 18-34s and we all know where that’s going to lead...

Off topic but this week my sister got outbid by “a state body with lots of money” according to the EA, wasn’t much only an extra 20k but it seriously pissed her off, again that 18-34 demo that are almost certain to lash out when given their next opportunity!

I hope she votes Sin Fein at the next opportunity.

combat14

PropQueries wrote: »

I wonder what the home would have sold for if the state wasn't the counter-bidder?

Is there anything in EU competition law that could halt all these purchases of new and second-hand homes and businesses by the state using borrowed money?

Whether you're buying a family home, an investment property or private business, there's a fair chance the state is your counter-bidder. And, it appears they're using the current covid crisis as cover to borrow more and more to fund these purchases and outbid or at least increasing the end selling price for all other potential buyers in the marketplace.

[/url]

wow never thought of it like that the FG/FF government are borrowing tens of billions of euros to effectively price first time buyers out of the property market

massively articificially driving up house prices here in the process

[Deleted User]

cnocbui wrote: »

I hope she votes Sin Fein at the next opportunity.

If she wants the country to go completely belly up, she should.

combat14 wrote: »

wow never thought of it like that the FG/FF government are borrowing tens of billions of euros to effectively price first time buyers out of the property market

massively articificially driving up house prices here in the process

When the funds were buying up all those distressed assets between 2012 and 2016, not many cared to ask what their exit strategy was.

Were these funds really interested in holding onto that pub in e.g. Athlone long-term? No. no they weren't.

It does look like their exit strategy is the taxpayer and their using this government's current borrowing spree as a very profitable conduit for their exit IMO

The issue is what happens the property market when the Government pulls in the purse strings themselves or are forced to by the EU/ECB.

The two biggest buyers of property assets over the past 10 years i.e. the funds and the state won't be there as a buyer of last resort IMO

PropQueries wrote: »

The issue is what happens the property market when the Government pulls in the purse strings themselves or are forced to by the EU/ECB.

The ECB have stated that current policies will be in place until March 2022 at which stage they anticipate tightening monetary supply as it is thought inflation may become a factor.

Thats only 11 months to go...........

The_Conductor wrote: »

The ECB have stated that current policies will be in place until March 2022 at which stage they anticipate tightening monetary supply as it is thought inflation may become a factor.

Thats only 11 months to go...........

Let's see if higher than expected inflation becomes a significant factor in their decision making before then...

Either way, it's reported in the Irish Times today that:

"Ireland’s share of a €5 billion EU Brexit compensation fund would be slashed under French proposals to change how payouts are calculated. The move threatens to delay the arrival of funds as it has led to the re-opening of negotiations on the issue among member states. Just under €1 billion of the fund was to be received by Ireland in pre-financing this year, with the possibility for further top-ups later. This is the biggest share allocated to any member states under the fund, which was agreed last year to support the EU countries hardest-hit by Brexit."

So, it looks like the Government's revenues are getting hit from every direction. Question is where the cuts will be made. I'm still of the opinion it's the housing budget. Social welfare can't be cut IMO. Health spending will only increase given the waiting lists being carried over from last year and this year etc.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-share-of-5bn-eu-brexit-fund-could-be-slashed-under-french-plan-1.4512255

Honestly- we need cuts across the board- and there should be no sacred cows, health, social welfare or otherwise.
We're also going to have to have a serious discussion around how to raise taxes- and in light of the antagonism our corporate tax rate is causing our EU friends, it must feature (this is despite the fact that our effective rate of corporation taxation is higher than in France and in many other EU countries- optics are everything).

We have a world of hurt coming down the road.

cnocbui

The_Conductor wrote: »

Honestly- we need cuts across the board- and there should be no sacred cows, health, social welfare or otherwise.
We're also going to have to have a serious discussion around how to raise taxes- and in light of the antagonism our corporate tax rate is causing our EU friends, it must feature (this is despite the fact that our effective rate of corporation taxation is higher than in France and in many other EU countries- optics are everything).

We have a world of hurt coming down the road.

Sure are. I came to the same conclusion about 6 years ago when I stumbled upon the debt clock for Ireland and looked at the per capita debt. Pretty bad I thought, then I remembered the tax base, and spent a ridiculous amount of time and effort trying to find out exactly how many taxpeyers there were so I could work out the real per capita debt. Having managed that, I decided it was time to leave, as no way was I going to stay put and be milked to pay for the idiocy of politicians and the greed of the public service.

I lugged my recycling to the local council collection point. I think there was one lad behind the till in the cabin and another two in chairs with their, feet up, having a natter. Down at the business end there was another lad in another tea room afair. That's four in total. We need higher property taxes like I need arthritis.

I will simply never agree that we need more taxes, other than on the corporate sector.

The_Conductor wrote: »

Honestly- we need cuts across the board- and there should be no sacred cows, health, social welfare or otherwise.
We're also going to have to have a serious discussion around how to raise taxes- and in light of the antagonism our corporate tax rate is causing our EU friends, it must feature (this is despite the fact that our effective rate of corporation taxation is higher than in France and in many other EU countries- optics are everything).

We have a world of hurt coming down the road.

I agree about the sacred cows. But they could definitely implement a housing plan that would have the same outcome but cost half as much and that’s where I believe the cuts in the housing budget will come from.

Paschal may tell Darragh to come up with sticks instead of carrots to implement his housing policies by the middle of this year i.e. achieve the same outcome, just do it much cheaper IMO

In relation to the French taxes. I’ve heard that one a few times and the arguments make sense. But how does it square with the French sports store Decathlon reporting nearly €6bn in sales through its Irish operation in 2019?

Link to Decathlon Business Post article here: https://www.businesspost.ie/retail/decathlon-reports-nearly-eur6bn-in-sales-through-irish-operation-2c5048bd

The_Conductor wrote: »

The ECB have stated that current policies will be in place until March 2022 at which stage they anticipate tightening monetary supply as it is thought inflation may become a factor.

Thats only 11 months to go...........

Look at the mess the commission has made of things. ECB Policies will be extended. Fiscal rules will be revised but with oversight I think. For example, it would be great for this country if a Troika type was to objectively look at health and provision of certain services. Billions to be save there. After all increasing property taxes won’t make a difference. According to some geniuses prices will fall well over 50%.

ExMachina1000

PropQueries wrote: »

Let's see if higher than expected inflation becomes a significant factor in their decision making before then...

Either way, it's reported in the Irish Times today that:

"Ireland’s share of a €5 billion EU Brexit compensation fund would be slashed under French proposals to change how payouts are calculated. The move threatens to delay the arrival of funds as it has led to the re-opening of negotiations on the issue among member states. Just under €1 billion of the fund was to be received by Ireland in pre-financing this year, with the possibility for further top-ups later. This is the biggest share allocated to any member states under the fund, which was agreed last year to support the EU countries hardest-hit by Brexit."

So, it looks like the Government's revenues are getting hit from every direction. Question is where the cuts will be made. I'm still of the opinion it's the housing budget. Social welfare can't be cut IMO. Health spending will only increase given the waiting lists being carried over from last year and this year etc.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-share-of-5bn-eu-brexit-fund-could-be-slashed-under-french-plan-1.4512255

The billions handed directly and indirectly handed to NGOs every year would be a solid start

Hubertj wrote: »

After all increasing property taxes won’t make a difference. According to some geniuses prices will fall well over 50%.

My suggestion is an actual property tax- wholly separate to local authority revenue raising measures. Property owners (including REITs and landlords) pay property tax. Property residents- including those renting- pay local authority charges.

Even if property prices fall by 50% (and its an if) it would still be a reasonable revenue source for the government if set at a plausible level (say 1% of the property value per annum, subject to a minimum payment of 1k per annum).

As for the local authority tax- this should reflect the actual cost of providing services facilities and amenities to residents- so it would be low in high density units (such as apartments) and much higher for remote one off housing.........

The other thing is equity between different classes of taxpayers- a PAYE worker should have access to similar inheritance rules as a farmer's son- its simply not fair that one sector gets cossetted and the other milked for all they're worth.

Ireland is living far beyond its wildest means- yet people don't seem to have copped this. There needs to be an honest discourse on our income and our expenditure.

Beigepaint

cnocbui wrote: »

I lugged my recycling to the local council collection point. I think there was one lad behind the till in the cabin and another two in chairs with their, feet up, having a natter. Down at the business end there was another lad in another tea room afair. That's four in total. We need higher property taxes like I need arthritis.

I will simply never agree that we need more taxes, other than on the corporate sector.

That’s interesting. What country’s public service should we model ours on in future, in your opinion?

I wonder if someone came to your job and saw three of your colleagues drinking tea and talking on their tea break would you agree that you are recklessly overpaid?

I am in favour of a property tax + residents tax system, for the record. A dereliction tax would also help a lot to help reduce our carbon footprint.

The shacks occupying prime residential land in my small town would be torn down and people in their thirties would not have to shuttle in and out to their McMansions on the road frontage on their uncles farm.

What do we think about the idea of a citizens assembly on housing and public transport?