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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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Hubertj

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/enniskerry-lodge-church-hill-enniskerry-wicklow/4392606

I really like this place. I have no idea on the price but really like that it is so secluded but still in the village. Also, from what I can see it is not a protected structure so gives more flexibility to whatever modernisation work etc to you would carry out.

PropQueries

Interesting opinion piece in the Irish Times today about the proposed shared equity housing scheme:

"Opposition is clearly having an impact. At the outset, Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien was gung-ho – saying a similar scheme in Britain increased supply by 50 per cent and that it hadn’t led to price inflation. Now he’s playing down the potential impact, noting €150 million is small in the context of an €11 billion Irish mortgage market and that the scheme is really only targeting about 4,000 potential buyers. It remains to be seen whether it will even get that far."

So, all this debate, hassle and time wasting over a "potential" 4,000 residential units. Surely if all the experts who have given opinions on this so far actually got together 6 months ago, they would most likely have already built 4,000 houses at cost by this stage.

This is insane time wasting if there is a housing shortage IMO

Link to article in Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/shared-equity-scheme-takes-fresh-hit-1.4511028

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

In all seriousness, I've been going to Bray seafront on and off for drinks with friends since 2005 and I've never seen the above. I'm not a gawker but my eyes are open...

Like who would ride outside in Ireland where it's always cold? Puking and peeing everywhere? This is hugely exaggerated

It's most definitely not exaggerated. Trust me!

[Deleted User]

bubblypop wrote: »

fighting, people riding on the seafront/beach, people puking and peeing everywhere.

In all seriousness, I've been going to Bray seafront on and off for drinks with friends since 2005 and I've never seen the above. I'm not a gawker but my eyes are open...

Like who would ride outside in Ireland where it's always cold? Puking and peeing everywhere? This is hugely exaggerated

[Deleted User]

schmittel wrote: »

Have always thought that Bray seafront is very pleasant whenever I have been there, but having said that I have often consciously avoided it at times when I know it is likely to be less pleasant!

It's very pleasant at the moment!
Usually it is unbearably busy. Which might be ok for some, but evenings and nights would not be my cup of tea.
Crowds drinking, shouting, singing, fighting, garda cars and ambulances, people riding on the seafront/beach, people puking and peeing everywhere.
Now, obviously it's not like that 24 hours a day, but living close to it, but not actually on it, would be my preference!

The Raheen park area would be my preferred area, great views!

hometruths

bubblypop wrote: »

I would not recommend the seafront in Bray to anyone, unless they already spend a lot of time there and know exactly what it is like.
Even one street back from the seafront is a massive difference. And much better!

Have always thought that Bray seafront is very pleasant whenever I have been there, but having said that I have often consciously avoided it at times when I know it is likely to be less pleasant!

MacronvFrugals

DataDude wrote: »

I assume the Central Bank can very easily just block this whole thing without much effort? Just make it clear to the lenders that LTI limits include all forms of loans and whether it comes from them, a family member or the government makes no difference?

Given how protective they are over their lending rules already (and rightly so given the bashing they took over the crisis), I find it hard to imagine why they would give the thumbs up to 5x LTI limits for those least able to afford such reckless lending?

In fairness the Rebuilding Ireland loans already consist of 5/1 mortgages bypassing the CBs 3.5/1

[Deleted User]

schmittel wrote: »

Was just about to post exactly the same link. yes, Sinead O'Connors old house, but apparently she sold it a few years ago. Not much looks to have been done to it in meantime.

I love it. Unfortunately my wife says she think's its overpriced. And she doesn't like Bray.

One of her concerns is same as you mentioned, view looks great in the photos but more often than not it would be dominated by the goings on of Bray seafront. Funfairs, daytrippers, etc etc.

I would not recommend the seafront in Bray to anyone, unless they already spend a lot of time there and know exactly what it is like.
Even one street back from the seafront is a massive difference. And much better!

PropQueries

DataDude wrote: »

I assume the Central Bank can very easily just block this whole thing without much effort? Just make it clear to the lenders that LTI limits include all forms of loans and whether it comes from them, a family member or the government makes no difference?

Given how protective they are over their lending rules already (and rightly so given the bashing they took over the crisis), I find it hard to imagine why they would give the thumbs up to 5x LTI limits for those least able to afford such reckless lending?

I’d say he will take a keen interest in housing in Ireland alright as he doesn’t want to end up being the scapegoat (as you said) if it all goes belly up. That and given his connections to New Zealand where a few weeks ago Bloomberg reported:

“New Zealand Government Forces Central Bank to Include Housing In Rate Setting”.

Link to Bloomberg article here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-24/n-z-government-forces-rbnz-to-include-housing-in-rate-setting

DataDude

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

From the Examiner in the last few moments, another warning from the Central Bank about the Shared-Equity scheme.

We're going with lobbyists over the ESRI, CB and multiple housing academics....

'Government scheme could drive up house prices, Central Bank warns'

.

I assume the Central Bank can very easily just block this whole thing without much effort? Just make it clear to the lenders that LTI limits include all forms of loans and whether it comes from them, a family member or the government makes no difference?

Given how protective they are over their lending rules already (and rightly so given the bashing they took over the crisis), I find it hard to imagine why they would give the thumbs up to 5x LTI limits for those least able to afford such reckless lending?

MacronvFrugals

From the Examiner in the last few moments, another warning from the Central Bank about the Shared-Equity scheme.

We're going with lobbyists over the ESRI, CB and multiple housing academics....

'Government scheme could drive up house prices, Central Bank warns'

The Central Bank also suggest that, depending on the final details of the scheme, it could be "in contradiction" with the macro-prudential lending rules

In a letter to members of the Oireachtas Housing Committee, the Central Bank has warned that the proposals could result in an increase in house prices and will do little to deal with supply issues.

The plan, which Mr O'Brien brought to Cabinet before Christmas, offers equity loans of up to 30% on new-build homes under €400,000.

In his letter, Vasileios Madouros, the Central Bank's director of financial stability, said: "Overall, taking a broader housing market perspective, the proposed scheme – in isolation – is likely to have a limited impact on the ultimate supply-side problem in the Irish housing market."

HansKroenke

enricoh wrote: »

A good news story, well paying jobs and a vote of confidence in us. Keep em coming! My sister is recently single I might try to get her hooked up with one of the brothers!
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0314/1203988-stripe-to-create-1-000-new-jobs-in-dublin/

Noting their plans to expand in Brazil and India I hope those jobs don't involve shipping in a lot of Brazilians and Indians to an already overcrowded Irish rental market (to link the above post to the property market in order to make it relevant to the thread).

enricoh

A good news story, well paying jobs and a vote of confidence in us. Keep em coming! My sister is recently single I might try to get her hooked up with one of the brothers!
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0314/1203988-stripe-to-create-1-000-new-jobs-in-dublin/

hometruths

Deleted User wrote: »

Fab location, like that's a prime piece of land right there on the island. Bit too close to the action though for some but if you want to be that close and love your sea swims and walking in for a nice pint in one of the many spots there, great spot to be. The seafront is always buzzing (pre, during, post covid) so you'd want to love being right in the thick of it. Personally, I'm with your wife, bit too close to the action for me but I prefer being accessible to and not in towns anyway. Personal preference!

I'm actually with you on that point oddly enough. Currently one of the reasons my wife wants to move is she'd prefer to be able to walk everywhere on foot. We live on edge of a town and have a lot of privacy, which I love, and fine to walk for adults but a pain in the ass with small kids.

My wife sick of bundling kids in and out of the car. But if I am going to move to within a town, I can handle a loss of privacy if the trade off is looking at the sea!

[Deleted User]

schmittel wrote: »

Was just about to post exactly the same link. yes, Sinead O'Connors old house, but apparently she sold it a few years ago. Not much looks to have been done to it in meantime.

I love it. Unfortunately my wife says she think's its overpriced. And she doesn't like Bray.

One of her concerns is same as you mentioned, view looks great in the photos but more often than not it would be dominated by the goings on of Bray seafront. Funfairs, daytrippers, etc etc.

Fab location, like that's a prime piece of land right there on the island. Bit too close to the action though for some but if you want to be that close and love your sea swims and walking in for a nice pint in one of the many spots there, great spot to be. The seafront is always buzzing (pre, during, post covid) so you'd want to love being right in the thick of it. Personally, I'm with your wife, bit too close to the action for me but I prefer being accessible to and not in towns anyway. Personal preference!

Mad_maxx

cnocbui wrote: »

No, but taxation is a biggie, it being far less there. No CGT and no inheritance tax, for instance. But there are plenty of other factors. The government doesn't kow-tow to a church. It's health system isn't 3rd world level It has a modern, sensible legal system It's not run by dickheads. It's got a population about the same as Ireland but they manage to run constant government surplus' while taxing far less. It's warmer than Ireland, the weather is better and it's got double the annual hours of sunshine compared to where I am at the moment.

Then there's the spectacular geography with varied climes with not every square centimetre of land being fenced off and farmed. And it's got the southern night skies, which are far more spectacular than the northern hemisphere.

Thanks for the heads-up, I never thought to look into the housing market first. I'm good.

mostly fair enough bar the bit about " cow towing to the church " and farming

the irish government hasnt cow towed to the church in about two decades , official ireland shows nothing but contempt towards the catholic church nowadays

i wouldnt be too quick to praise new zealands farming culture , they are far behind us in terms of enviromental awareness and pollution control , new zealand is very good at presenting themselves as one thing and the reality being quite different .

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

I saw that article too from 2017, but no mention of it on the PPR and I think she's still knocking about there. Sale must have fallen through. The house attached to it is a very unpleasant guesthouse I believe. If you were to buy it you'd have to find a way to put up major gates/walls to add to privacy but without ruining the view.

Hard one to value. If it were on any other part of the coast from Howth the the whole way to Greystones it'd be €2.5m+, but given the potential issues, don't think I'd touch it even at that "bargain price".

No doubt strong money for Bray. Hoping to persuade my wife to at least view it, will reserve judgment on it's value until then!

DataDude

schmittel wrote: »

Was just about to post exactly the same link. yes, Sinead O'Connors old house, but apparently she sold it a few years ago. Not much looks to have been done to it in meantime.

I love it. Unfortunately my wife says she think's its overpriced. And she doesn't like Bray.

One of her concerns is same as you mentioned, view looks great in the photos but more often than not it would be dominated by the goings on of Bray seafront. Funfairs, daytrippers, etc etc.

I saw that article too from 2017, but no mention of it on the PPR and I think she's still knocking about there. Sale must have fallen through. The house attached to it is a very unpleasant guesthouse I believe. If you were to buy it you'd have to find a way to put up major gates/walls to add to privacy but without ruining the view.

Hard one to value. If it were on any other part of the coast from Howth the the whole way to Greystones it'd be €2.5m+, but given the potential issues, don't think I'd touch it even at that "bargain price".

Cyrus

DataDude wrote: »

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/semi-detached-house-montebello-montebello-terrace-bray-co-wicklow/2951414

Fairly unique house. I think Sinead O'Connor's?
€950k for 350sqm and a serious sea view...but I'd say you'd be arriving out to all sorts of unpleasant surprises at your gates over the weekend!

EDIT - I think there was previously a conversation on here where a couple of people were positive on the future development of Bray...if that turns out to be true, I think this would pay off handsomely.

yeah its a little too close to the action.

in fairness it does represent value but once you had spent the sizeable sum required to modernise it bray would want to come on leaps and bounds to make it worth that.

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/semi-detached-house-montebello-montebello-terrace-bray-co-wicklow/2951414

Fairly unique house. I think Sinead O'Connor's?
€950k for 350sqm and a serious sea view...but I'd say you'd be arriving out to all sorts of unpleasant surprises at your gates over the weekend!

EDIT - I think there was previously a conversation on here where a couple of people were positive on the future development of Bray...if that turns out to be true, I think this would pay off handsomely.

Was just about to post exactly the same link. yes, Sinead O'Connors old house, but apparently she sold it a few years ago. Not much looks to have been done to it in meantime.

I love it. Unfortunately my wife says she think's its overpriced. And she doesn't like Bray.

One of her concerns is same as you mentioned, view looks great in the photos but more often than not it would be dominated by the goings on of Bray seafront. Funfairs, daytrippers, etc etc.

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

Many already are full time WFH at the moment.

Of course they are but not out of choice.

DataDude

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/semi-detached-house-montebello-montebello-terrace-bray-co-wicklow/2951414

Fairly unique house. I think Sinead O'Connor's?
€950k for 350sqm and a serious sea view...but I'd say you'd be arriving out to all sorts of unpleasant surprises at your gates over the weekend!

EDIT - I think there was previously a conversation on here where a couple of people were positive on the future development of Bray...if that turns out to be true, I think this would pay off handsomely.

Hubertj

Graham wrote: »

I'd be the opposite mind, at least in the short term. A hybrid approach allows companies/employees the best of both worlds.

I don't see the entire corporate world going completely virtual any time soon.

Some companies will offer full time wfh which will suit some people. I think very few will mandate full wfh.

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

I'd be the opposite mind, at least in the short term. A hybrid approach allows companies/employees the best of both worlds.

I don't see the entire corporate world going completely virtual any time soon.

Many already are full time WFH at the moment. I've no doubt the hybrid model will be tested. But I think the odds are that more companies will eventually decide either full time WFH or full time in the office, depending on the role of course.

Either way, it means much much less office space required going forward IMO

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

I still stand behind my thinking that it's either full time WFH or full time in the office. I really don't see hybrid working for all staff being realistic in the real world. It may be tested for e.g. staff morale issues etc., but then they will need to make the decision on either full time WFH or full time in the office IMO

I'd be the opposite mind, at least in the short term. A hybrid approach allows companies/employees the best of both worlds.

I don't see the entire corporate world going completely virtual any time soon.

PropQueries

SmokyMo wrote: »

I still havent heard a single tech company offering a switch to permanent wfh. Maybe for some peripheral support roles? Options to wfh was always there even before pandemic.

In an article last week about Liberty Insurance:

"The insurer said all staff, including its senior leadership team, will continue to work from home once the pandemic has passed, with the option of spending up to two days per week in the office to carry out specific activities or hold face-to-face meetings."

Someone here did say that this might not be the whole story, but it hasn't being refuted yet.

But, in relation to your tech comment, the same article stated:

"Liberty’s decision to go fully remote mirrors recent moves by other companies such as Salesforce and Spotify to allow employees to choose ways of working that best suits them."

The interesting thing about Salesforce is that back in 2019 (pre-covid), RTE reported:

"Salesforce Tower will consist of four new buildings, with 430,000 sq/ft of space, at Spencer Place overlooking the River Liffey. The company's 1,400 existing employees and the new hires will begin moving into the new office, being developed by Ronan Group Real Estate and Colony Capital, in mid-2021."

So, I wonder what Salesforce's plans to allow workers to decide how they want to work post-covid means for their plans for their new office space in Dublin?

Also, back in May 2020, Twitter stated "Twitter is allowing staff to work remotely forever".

But, some companies, with Liberty Insurance being the most upfront so far, are indeed going with the full time WFH. Unless, the Irish Times got that story wrong, which is entirely possible.

I still stand behind my thinking that it's either full time WFH or full time in the office. I really don't see hybrid working for all staff being realistic in the real world. It may be tested for e.g. staff morale issues etc., but then they will need to make the decision on either full time WFH or full time in the office IMO

Link to Irish Times article on Liberty Insurance here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/liberty-insurance-in-for-the-long-term-on-remote-working-1.4507820

Link to RTE on Salesforce (pre-covid - 2019): https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0118/1023962-jobs-salesforce-dublin/

Link to Twitter article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/twitter-says-employees-will-be-allowed-to-work-from-home-forever-1.4252310

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

That's exactly what I understand the proposal to be, and if so, I think it is a smart idea. Certainly a lot smarter than anything else I have heard.

if thats the proposal and thats what delivered then i would agree.

nsnoefc1878

SmokyMo wrote: »

I still havent heard a single tech company offering a switch to permanent wfh. Maybe for some peripheral support roles? Options to wfh was always there even before pandemic.

Mine has.

Tea drinker

Villa05 wrote: »

Mine have said a minimum of 2 days per week on site.
Whether the employer is the owner or paying rent on their premises will be a significant factor to the degree of wfh adoption

The buildings can be owned by the company pension fund, or any pension fund.
Seems bit of an amber blinking light there.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

if thats the way its delivered i could support something like that, but do you believe if a sinn fein lead government starts building large estates in parts of the country that everyone will be getting a private mortage?

I doubt it.

That's exactly what I understand the proposal to be, and if so, I think it is a smart idea. Certainly a lot smarter than anything else I have heard.