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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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L1011

Deleted User wrote: »

If somebody did not understand what is going on I will try explain simple words
The mister X felt down from stairs and went to coma
The mister X was very big businessman and he paid wages to millions people
At the moment the company of mister X continue pay wages
But there is questions for how long management will continue pay wages,will mister X will wake up from coma and will be mister X same as he was before
Too many unknown and none known
At the moment if you still getting wages there is the best time buy property because if mister X will wake up there is same chance not get them as get them same as still have job to pay mortgage or get the mortgage
But one day to reduce mortgage rate to move builders forward mister X could decide take houses of those who will not pay mortgage
Nobody except God know what will going on.

This still isn't coherent. Please don't try "explain" any further.

[Deleted User]

L1011 wrote: »

This still isn't coherent. Please don't try "explain" any further.

Please name me 3 economists which you follow everyday.Thank you

L1011

Deleted User wrote: »

Please name me 3 economists which you follow everyday.Thank you

Do not reply to moderation. That also means - do not reply to this post either

L1011

thefridge2006 wrote: »

AMEN... Think he got threatened with a forum ban recently for something recently too?

Do not discuss moderation on-thread in any way, shape or form

The quality of posting in the past few pages here has been abysmal almost all-round. If it doesn't improve I will need to lock the thread for cleanup and sanctions

thefridge2006

Deleted User wrote: »

The most common problem that developer can buy journalist which will tell what developer want
The other problem the businessman could legally buy politician trough the lobby
The government will use media spreading news trying move economy forward and win second election
Guys,I dont know what you believe but for me all mess about the property in media at the moment remind group of people who try restart economy from first gear and get same profit as on 5th gear in 2019

You know we're in trouble when 25 new jobs and 50 new jobs are making the big news stories on the two major news papers in the last few days

Aldi to create 25 new jobs with new store in Co Cavan - the times
SL Controls will generate 50 jobs - indo

Pelezico

thefridge2006 wrote: »

You know we're in trouble when 25 new jobs and 50 new jobs are making the big news stories on the two major news papers in the last few days

Aldi to create 25 new jobs with new store in Co Cavan - the times
SL Controls will generate 50 jobs - indo

The biggest news was that scam pulled by the Davys 16. Those guys hit very greedy.

And the German Invsstment fund which burned lot of Irish hoping to make some money in renovations in Germany.

thefridge2006

I find it very ironic that Cyrus would give someone stick for being a cheerleader

L1011

thefridge2006 wrote: »

I find it very ironic that Cyrus would give someone stick for being a cheerleader

Attack the post and not the poster.

If there's no improvement in posting quality - practically every post is off-topic, actionable or both currently - the thread will be closed temporarily

TheSheriff

jill_valentine wrote: »

In the interest of a change of topic then, a hypothetical -

Let's say for the sake of argument WFH or partial WFH becomes an established, totally normal element of the Irish working economy. Outside of Dublin, what towns would be most likely to benefit from the more mobile workforce and see a corresponding increase in property value? Would commuter/dormer areas suffer without their location offering the same draw anymore?

I would say ANY Dublin suburb/commuter town which is on the train line/easy commute had upside potential.

For example, this house in Kildare (no idea of house prices in this part of Kildare), but its currently bidding at >50k over asking.

https://homebid.ie/searchproperties/7-boycetown-court

Cyrus

thefridge2006 wrote: »

I find it very ironic that Cyrus would give someone stick for being a cheerleader

Can you give a little context here ? What have I been cheerleading ?

HansKroenke

PropQueries wrote: »

Just looking at the share prices of the companies with most (all?) exposure to the Irish property market:

Cairn Homes: Today = €1.09 vs Jan 2018 = €2.00

Glenveagh: Today = €0.90 vs Jan 2018 = €1.26

Irish Reit: Today = €1.57 vs Dec. 2019 = €1.83

Hibernian Reit: Today = €1.15 vs May 2018 = €1.57

While Hibernian Reit (primarily office based investments) can be explained, why have the other three (primarily residential investments and primarily invested in the Greater Dublin region) moved in the opposite direction to what is both the public's perception and what the most recent data appears to show in relation to the movement of property prices in the Irish residential market?

Genuinely not a loaded question. Seems like one of the buys of the decade if someone is on the bullish side IMO

Even if someone believes the current low prices are down to the fact that share prices move according to international sentiment, they really should appear like a buy if someone believes that the Irish property market can indeed only go one way, rent or selling wise, going forward IMO

It's not easy to explain what's happening in equity markets with rational arguments. When you have central banks buying bonds in order to keep yields low, this is preventing equities from correcting themselves. However, central banks don't want to take their foot off the gas to let asset prices correct so who knows what is going to happen. What is happening in equity markets is that they have decoupled from the economy in which the companies operate. As such, I wouldn't read too much into the drops as explaining the drops in share prices with rational arguments like the property market has peaked or that Euro equities in general are falling due to the vaccine delays across the continent while the US economy is going to roar ahead in a few weeks, need to be couched in the lack of a free market in which those equities are trading.

Mic 1972

DataDude wrote: »

We have a dedicated office that calculates house price inflation. Dublin house prices are down since October 2018 in both nominal and real terms. That is a fact. That is not my opinion.

Picking a clearly inferior dataset to try and contradict the official data is more disingenuous that anything you have accused props of before. In fact he has had comments moderated for less ‘obviously false’ statements.

Not sure why you keep bringing up props if you have an issue with my posts

mcsean2163

HansKroenke wrote: »

It's not easy to explain what's happening in equity markets with rational arguments. When you have central banks buying bonds in order to keep yields low, this is preventing equities from correcting themselves. However, central banks don't want to take their foot off the gas to let asset prices correct so who knows what is going to happen. What is happening in equity markets is that they have decoupled from the economy in which the companies operate. As such, I wouldn't read too much into the drops as explaining the drops in share prices with rational arguments like the property market has peaked or that Euro equities in general are falling due to the vaccine delays across the continent while the US economy is going to roar ahead in a few weeks, need to be couched in the lack of a free market in which those equities are trading.

Nope, equities are generally inflated as deposit rates are negative.

There are empty apartments all over Dublin. Emigration figures are unknown.

I'd say uncertainty is high, there could be a massive crash or a big recovery when covid19 resumes.

Based on those figures, market is hesitant but not yet terrified.

bellylint

mcsean2163 wrote: »

There are empty apartments all over Dublin. Emigration figures are unknown.

just interested, where do you base/get that from? Would like to look into it more myself.

Hubertj

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/how-to-build-the-15-minute-city-1.4508694

Not sure if anyone posted this already but an interesting read. Author doesn’t think very high rise is required for the city. It makes some very good points on how the city could be better developed. I always thought that densification was the only way to go but doesn’t appear to be

Villa05

<SNIP>

PropQueries

There's a good editorial in the Sunday Times today:

"Ireland's mountain of national debt can’t be overlooked — it must be scaled. Ireland’s national debt will be the highest in Europe per head of population by the end of the year. This is according to the latest figures from the European Commission, which calculates that by the end of 2021 we will owe €241.6 billion. That’s up 10% on last year, and equivalent to more than €48,000 owed by every man, woman and child in the country, to use that old-fashioned metric. The debt mountain will grow even higher in 2022, it has been forecast."

However, the more interesting solution they suggest for paying down this debt is:

"The property tax can, which has been repeatedly kicked down the road, has to be prised open."

This makes sense as I don't think income taxes can rise much further and the ever increasing carbon taxes are already baked into the government revenue forecasts out until 2030. There can't be really any savings from social welfare either due to the high cost of living in this country e.g. primarily rents.

Another possible consequence of ever higher property taxes that may impact property valuations both today and going forward is, in my opinion, will mortgage lenders start to include future expected significant increases in both property taxes and carbon taxes into their loan to income limits going forward? Especially as these are well flagged or at least expected by the public going forward IMO

Link to editorial in the Sunday Times here: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/editorial-ireland-s-mountain-of-national-debt-cant-be-overlooked-it-must-be-scaled-pdjtprd9f

Villa05

PropQueries wrote:

"Ireland's mountain of national debt canâ€™t be overlooked â€” it must be scaled. Irelandâ€™s national debt will be the highest in Europe per head of population by the end of the year. This is according to the latest figures from the European Commission, which calculates that by the end of 2021 we will owe â‚¬241.6 billion. Thatâ€™s up 10% on last year, and equivalent to more than â‚¬48,000 owed by every man, woman and child in the country, to use that old-fashioned metric. The debt mountain will grow even higher in 2022, it has been forecast."

It's the elephant in the roomwhen you add the projected move from:
5 workers for every 1 pensioner
To
2 workers for every 1 pensioner

Imagine what that will do to welfare and health budgets plus a policy of long term leasing of social housing

It would be advisable to prepare for national bankruptcy in the lifetime of your new mortgage

The_Conductor

We need a separate property tax- ontop of a residents tax- the residents tax to pay for all local authority expenditure- the property tax to fund our national debt.

Vis-a-vis our national debt- even in this era of ultra low interest rates, we still paid almost 8 billion in interest payments on our national debt in 2020. People do not seem to have any cognisance of this- the average person walking down the street refuses on a point of principle to look at the bigger picture, and only sees whats in it for them.

The average person- has gotten it in their noggin, that printing money is both viable and indeed, preferable, to anyone paying down debt. This story/myth has been peddled by various parts of the political spectrum and the media- and by god they are going to howl when the day of reckoning comes.

I personally think that a reasonable property tax- based on a regularly reappraised value of the unit (say 1.5% of the value for example) is fair and reasonable- providing it is accompanied by a fair and reasonable residential tax- which would be completely ringfenced by local authority jurisdictions- so Dara in his McMansion in Leitrim- gets off lightly on the property tax- but pays the true cost of providing services, facilities and amenities to their McMansion in the arse end of nowhere. Meanwhile Mary and Mark in Dublin- get hit badly on the property tax- but get a break on their residential tax.

The first time round- there was no appetite to look outside the box on the 'property tax' and include an element of dwelling size in the calculation- when it was to pay for local authorities. Now we have an opportunity to revisit that travesty.

The harder thing of all- will be selling this to the Irish who have a fixation with owning property. Well, owning property- is going to be more expensive in future, come what may..........

A 5k per annum property tax charge- might reduce property prices by 10-15%? I don't necessarily think this would be a bad thing.

Let Revenue purloin all income- in a similar manner to PAYE, but to include people outside of the PAYE net- they are quite remarkably good at it after all.

So a whole new tax- paid by property residents- alongside a fair and reasonable property tax paid by property owners- to reflect both property prices, and also the actual costs of servicing local authority - to pay back a chunk of national debt (or to at least pay the interest on it).

The other mistruth being peddled- is how we can let inflation diminish the debt- well, in an era of low inflation- or negative inflation- that just doesn't happen. Did the EU manage to breach a 2% inflation level at any stage in the last 15 years?

We are so incredibly screwed.

jill_valentine

Villa05 wrote: »

It's the elephant in the roomwhen you add the projected move from:
5 workers for every 1 pensioner
To
2 workers for every 1 pensioner

Imagine what that will do to welfare and health budgets plus a policy of long term leasing of social housing

It would be advisable to prepare for national bankruptcy in the lifetime of your new mortgage

And what happens when many, if not most, of those pensioners are also still having to pay rent?

hometruths

bellylint wrote: »

just interested, where do you base/get that from? Would like to look into it more myself.

There is lots of discussion on it from both sides of the fence in this thread: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058118775

It's fascinating, but be warned, it's a rabbit hole!

cnocbui

The_Conductor wrote: »

We need a separate property tax- ontop of a residents tax- the residents tax to pay for all local authority expenditure- the property tax to fund our national debt.

...

The average person- has gotten it in their noggin, that printing money is both viable and indeed, preferable, to anyone paying down debt. This story/myth has been peddled by various parts of the political spectrum and the media- and by god they are going to howl when the day of reckoning comes.

I personally think that a reasonable property tax- based on a regularly reappraised value of the unit (say 1.5% of the value for example) is fair and reasonable...

The Irish solution to all problems - more tax.

My solution is less tax, increasing the available consumption capability of people so they can better afford housing and consumption, leading to increased economic activity.

The potential buyer of one of my properties recently said the bank had rejected her first loan application but her second has the verbal nod, so my dream of getting the feck out of this insane country is looking slightly more achievable. Happy daya.

Zenify

cnocbui wrote: »

my dream of getting the feck out of this insane country is looking slightly more achievable. Happy daya.

Where to?

cnocbui

Zenify wrote: »

Where to?

New Zealand. The drawbridge is up, but as I have two properties to offload and work to do to get planning compliant on one, hopefully by the time I get to a property free state, the road will be open.

Villa05

jill_valentine wrote:

And what happens when many, if not most, of those pensioners are also still having to pay rent?

David McWilliams has a saying that we are 3 big decisions away from greatness

I would argue the opposite is also the case. Failure to deal with housing affordability is 1.
Implementing polices that make it worse is another and these are both choices that are still available to us.

Housing could easily be a revenue generator for the state, we have chosen to make it a major drag

[Deleted User]

Some movements on rental market.
You could see HAP welcome when before nobody did not want it.

Hubertj

https://m.independent.ie/news/private-62-acre-island-with-a-microclimate-off-the-coast-of-west-cork-goes-under-the-hammer-40189426.html

What sort of “microclimate” do you get off the coast of cork?

cnocbui

Hubertj wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/news/private-62-acre-island-with-a-microclimate-off-the-coast-of-west-cork-goes-under-the-hammer-40189426.html

What sort of “microclimate” do you get off the coast of cork?

Snap, I thought exactly the same thing - with the winds off the Irish coast, that would be my nomination for Most Creative Bullshit in a Property Spiel award.

Hubertj

cnocbui wrote: »

Snap, I thought exactly the same thing - with the winds off the Irish coast, that would be my nomination for Most Creative Bullshit in a Property Spiel award.

To be fair it doesn’t really say that it’s better, or worse, than the mainland climate!

The_Conductor

Hubertj wrote: »

To be fair it doesn’t really say that it’s better, or worse, than the mainland climate!

I'd suggest extra rain days, more storms and general misery.