fliball123 wrote: » When have I ever compared London prices to Dublin prices? Why not Sydney prices, or New York prices, or Paris prices or Manchester prices..What correlation has London got to Dublin or Irish property prices? If you are to compare to Dublin to London how many people left London recently
PropQueries wrote: » I think the main problem these days is that the property markets in many of the worlds cities is heavily invested in by the same relatively few global funds. Once they start panicking and pulling out of one market they may pull out of many other similar markets at the same time leading to a flood of property entering the market at the same time. Property prices have being rising in relative tandem among the main cities for the past few years. They may now fall in tandem.
Timing belt wrote: » Why would they start panicking and pulling out of all markets at the same time and start a fire sale? What would be the driver that would make this happen?
PropQueries wrote: » But, then we’re back to the nonsense that land is expensive in Dublin because it’s a “city” and there’s not much of it. We’re not London or Tokyo. There’s nothing but land in and around the city. Actually, there’s plenty of land around london. Not sure about Tokyo, but probably plenty of land there as well though.
PropQueries wrote: » I would actually compare Waterford to Dublin more than I would compare Dublin to London
PropQueries wrote: » I’m not sure that argument stands. London is a real city and Greater London has a population about twice the size of Ireland in an area about one and a half times the size of Co. Dublin. Outside a few areas, it’s also not that high rise and they still appear to have more and better parks than Dublin has (the park thing is a guess from the times I’ve been there).
PropQueries wrote: In my opinion we're not London or New York. Is there really much demand for such units. Our "IT" jobs are mostly in sales etc. The real work in done in the United States, London or some other EU country. I think everyone believes we're the silicon valley of Europe but the truth and the wages are much different from the reality.
PropQueries wrote: Some day. But from just looking at the number of a-rated turn-key apartments and houses for sale and rent in Dublin on MyHome.ie, the figure must be at least in the 5,000-6,000 range. That’s a fairly significant number of new build homes looking for occupiers and is significant for such a small city, We’re not London. And we’re still expected to build c.16,000-18,000 this year with most to be built in the greater Dublin region...
fliball123 wrote: » its a place the majority would like to live in and as such there is a premium to be paid. Just like London, Paris, New York, Sydney, Rome, Brussels, Copenhagen, Madrid, Berlin the list goes on and on. Why should Dublin be any different
fliball123 wrote: » How does your population vs accommodation compare to within other major cities in the world I believe the problem is not just isolated to Dublin/Ireland you only have to look at London/England or Paris/France to see the same issues..
fliball123 wrote: » Unfortunately the idea that if you want to live in an area that a lot of other people want to live in as in Dublin along the coast or leafy Foxrock. You have to pay a premium to do so. I also told you this is not unique to Ireland Look at America, Australia, England, France and look at places in here like Sydney, Manhattan, London and Paris..There is a premium needed to be paid to live in a desirable area.
fliball123 wrote: » As for paying a price over the average or median. Look at the likes of New York, London, Paris and other major/captial cities throughout the world they have historically come with a premium so Dublin is not alone in this regard.
fliball123 wrote: » How does the likes of New York and London and Paris and Sydney function with the same dynamics
fliball123 wrote: » Lots of other houses bigger and for less in other areas if people want to live somewhere and if there is competition for the house price goes up. We are not unique in this look at New York, London, Sydney, Paris, Berlin and other Captial cities around the globe
fliball123 wrote: » look at London, New York, Paris and other major hubs and before the sh1t of Dublin should not be compared to these, the simple fact is Dublin is now a major attraction for MNCs, foreign investment aswell as Software and Pharma and will be the the only English speaking Capital in the EU once England go so it is now up there or very close.
fliball123 wrote: » AND what connection has your brain made to the Irish property market?
TheSheriff wrote: » It's funny how sometimes we are exactly aligned with what is happening in London, and other times we are not....
PropQueries wrote: » Many of the decision makers at many of these funds generally think the same way eventually. Whether it’s a belief that interest rates will rise faster than many think to increasing government intervention in the property markets. Doesn’t take much to scare them. Back in 2014, David McWilliams said: “Most vulture funds have a rule called the three-thirty rule. This means they buy and hold for a maximum of three years and once they make 30 per cent they are out.” I think what he may have got wrong back them was that the vulture funds bought so much property that it’s taken them a bit longer to get through what they actually bought. They should be through the paperwork by this stage in many cases IMO
TheSheriff wrote: » So now your opinions extend to the inner workings of Vulture funds and specifically how their internal administrative processes work? And of course more importantly, the vulture funds are now ready to instigate their own fire sale. Right now of course, any day now....
PropQueries wrote: » It just takes one fund to start it. Just like a real fire, they may all rush for the exit. One wouldn’t want to risk being the last to leave the building in such a scenario.
ebayissues wrote: » I dont see fund(s) leaving Ireland. If you work in the funds industry you would know that recently a new corporate vehicle structure was drafted. It's forecasted that this should increase funds domiciled in Ireland from 3 trillion to 5 trillion in 5 years. Funds are not specific to QIAIF, UCITS, hedge funds, property funds etc. Also given that most funds in UK that want to passport their product in Europe, Ireland is one of the top choices. I don't see funds leaving Ireland anytime soon.
Joeyjoejoe43 wrote: » What is the general consensus on where the Irish property market goes in the next 1/3/5 years?
Joeyjoejoe43 wrote: What is the general consensus on where the Irish property market goes in the next 1/3/5 years?
thefridge2006 wrote: » European investor to seek €1bn from sale of Irish residential rental portfoliohttps://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/european-investor-to-seek-1bn-from-sale-of-irish-residential-rental-portfolio-1.4506736 I'm pretty sure Props called this situation previously......this thread is turning into Props prophecies that are coming true. fair play
schmittel wrote: » It's a bit of a recurring theme... l Hence why I thought it was odd after posting all of the above to reply to a post about London prices saying:
Villa05 wrote: » 1 up 3 to 5 crash Loose prediction, but based on current policy not only is a crash inevitable but continuation of those policies will make the crash much harder when it happens So basically the higher the rise, the greater the crash World events may speed up the timing of the crash
Hubertj wrote: » You really should caveat your “prediction” by saying you have been predicting a crash for years. I think prices will start to fall in the 2nd half of next year.
Hubertj wrote: You really should caveat your “prediction†by saying you have been predicting a crash for years. But you were wrong.
Timing belt wrote: » Which Funds are you including in your latest prediction? Pension Funds Reits Investment Funds Fixed income funds (you keep talking about the Nama Debt that was bought) Hedge Funds And in the current market what asset class would the funds flow into following your fire sale or are you predicting a run on the funds by investors.
Villa05 wrote: » Have I? I thought I was highlighting bad policies that increase price and make affordability issues worse. This creates high risk within a market that everyone needs to access Would you not agree that current policy is boom/bust?
johnnyskeleton wrote: » Those who bought based on rising prices and the corporation tax scheme have to wait 7 years from when they bought. I would anticipate that some of these investments will start to cash out, but most likely they will try to sell their investments en bloc to institutional investors e.g. pension funds
fliball123 wrote: Now we could be at the start of one now judging by some of the posts I am looking at on other threads about how prices are going through the roof but we will only know if its boom and bust after the fact.
Villa05 wrote: » The number of FTB's in 2019 was just over 6k. The number of people that sit the leaving cert each year is just over 60k, let's assume this 60k is demand each year. Let's assume that this 60k couple up to become a FTB This means that only the top 20% can afford to provide their own housing needs each year and that's with up to a 10% grant from the taxpayer Now let's assume that we have net inward migration of 15k each year (most recent figures show 30k), that brings down that 20% figure that can afford their own home substantially. Rents can be anything up to double the cost of a mortgage. Over 30 % and rising substantially of private rents are subsidised by the state. Add in corporation lets and the crazy prices government are paying for new property from the private sector. The state has the most debt per head of population in the EU (which includes Greece and Italy). Basic maths tells us all this is unsustainable together with all the other challenges that face the state such as pensions, healthcare, education We are very much in an unsustainable asset price bubble. We can implement policy that cools it or blows it up further. Given that almost all interventions in the housing market have been on the demand side, clearly Government have chosen tho continue blowing it up. This will come at great cost for people whose only wish is to have a house as their home
Hubertj wrote: » What other costs involved in construction besides land prices need to be addressed in order to help with affordability?
PropQueries wrote: » The Government actually spotted that rule's impact on the supply of property entering the market a few years ago and changed the rules. The Finance Act 2017 introduced a change to the 7 year rule for investors who purchased between 2012 and 2014 and now allows for an exit after 4 years i.e. they have all being able to sell and avail of this relief for the past couple of years.
Kind of explains (at least partly) why property prices started falling in Dublin from 2018 onwards?
