yagan wrote: » Interesting piece about oncoming supply to the market by the Marlet group. A little bird tells me that there's a good few Marlet sites around Dublin that never restarted after the first lockdown as they probably knew the WFH option had become part of business cost savings, so now they're focusing on getting what good residential developments finished and to market ASAP. International pension funds who had being buying developments off Marlet before the cement mixers were churning are not snapping. It's entirely likely that the Dublin bust has already happened but as in 2006 only those at building site level can see that.
Housing completions in Dublin hit a 10-year high in the final quarter of last year despite the pandemic causing widespread disruption across the construction sector. However, the report highlighted a fall-off in housing commencement notices, an indicator of future supply, which were down 25 per cent in the final quarter.
HansKroenke wrote: » Long term leases the councils are entering into with the institutionals are similar to the bank bailouts after 2008. The Irish taxpayer is being put on the hook for the speculators again.
yagan wrote: » More portents of high tide waning.
DataDude wrote: » I thought this too but it does seem to very clearly state "annual Household income" in the table header so it would be weird to present it as half the total income. Also think it's unlikely for the 5th decile household income to be (51*2 = 102k), for example.
Cyrus wrote: » yes i agree although it refers to disposable income so will be after tax, the exact definition would be useful though.
PropQueries wrote: » New data (released today), shows that more than 80,000 households are in state-supported private rented accommodation and that the Hap scheme payments to landlords will rise from €436 million last year to in excess of €1 billion by the end of 2021 (this year). So, it's HAP alone is going to rise from €436m last year to over €1billion this year, and that's from the department of housing very own figures. So, is the state expecting the number of households receiving HAP to double from 80,000 households to 160,000 households this year or are they expecting rents to double or something in between? Link to article in Sunday Business Post here:https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/more-than-80000-households-are-in-state-supported-private-rented-accommodation-af10bd9b
Browney7 wrote: » This is another piece of can kicking to go with our pensions timebomb which is ticking away nicely in a cupboard in the department of finance.
yagan wrote: However it would be highly ironic if the WFH switch finally benefits the ghost estates of the last boom while the new Dublin surplus become under subscribed.
Hubertj wrote: I think the 2 are linked - focus resources on finishing out existing projects in q4, hence the drop off on commencement notices. I think what will be more telling are the commencement notices as this year progresses along with the number of construction workers that remain unemployed / PUP...
Browney7 wrote: 1 billion a year in 2021 and likely to keep on increasing after that. Another fine and large ongoing liability that will be classified as current expenditure which realistically the state will have to pay for the next 20 years. If they actually had to set aside the money today that will be paid in HAP it would be easily north of 15 billion unless the plan is to stop HAP come hell or high water in a few years time.
Villa05 wrote: » In the last boom construction was a massive revenue generator, it appears to be a major drain now Would be good to get a full picture of what all this is costing the taxpayer
yagan wrote: » Two years from now we could be on the other side of the equation with a surplus where the only housing activity is retrofitting for WFH. International market forces were allowed to lead planning in Dublin in this boom and it's very likely that a lot of what's being completed now will be obsolete to requirement. Was it last summer that planning permission was sought for a 500 student apartment complex in the docks be switched to private rental? Vertical ghost estates.
Timing belt wrote: » From the UK Data Flats have remained Static Year on year in London whilst other property types have risen... But no sign of a collapse yet. Source: https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/uk-house-price-index#:~:text=The%20UK%20House%20Price%20Index%20%28UK%20HPI%29%20captures,transactions%2C%20whether%20for%20cash%20or%20with%20a%20mortgage.
PropQueries wrote: » Looks like the house price falls have started in London. According to Bloomberg today: "House Prices Are Plummeting in London’s Financial Districts. House prices in the City of London slumped 10.8% in the year through January, while Tower Hamlets, where rival financial district Canary Wharf is based, saw values drop 9.5%, according to a report by chartered surveyors e.surv. The best bargains are to be found in City of Westminster, the heart of the nation’s government. Prices there tumbled 37% compared with a year earlier - the sharpest drop seen in the capital." Link to article in Bloomberg here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-10/house-prices-are-plummeting-in-london-s-financial-districts
Hubertj wrote: » What do you mean by market forces in relation to planning? Only regarding student accommodation? If we ignore the ridiculous rents is purpose built student accommodation not common in most cities?
fliball123 wrote: » AND what connection has your brain made to the Irish property market?
schmittel wrote: » Odd how prices rising in London is held up as an example why prices rising in Dublin is perfectly normal, but if somebody points out prices are falling in London you come out with a comment like that.
Hubertj wrote: » House prices increased in London during 2020.
schmittel wrote: » Whether house prices went up or down is not the point I was making.
Hubertj wrote: » Sorry, I don’t follow.
schmittel wrote: » Perhaps you missed the relevant post if you have Props on ignore?
Subutai wrote: » Talk to someone who's lived in apartments in somewhere like Germany and here. My European colleagues have frequently been shocked at what we call apartments. I've no doubt there are lots of people living in apartments - Dublin is full of old buildings sub divided into apartments and packed as high as possible. That's not a sustainable way to live for small households, which is what the drive for more apartments is meant to accommodate.
combat14 wrote: » by all accounts london has seen a drop in its population ot 700,000 in the last year - the uk an overall drop in 1m - that tends to have some effect eventually
ReturnOfThe wrote: » So if someone is looking for house prices to fall, they would have to be looking out for at least one of the below headlines in the papers.. Economic outlook deterioratingPopulation growth being reversed Demand falling Mortgage approvals falling Supply increasing and outpacing demand Interest rates rising
PropQueries wrote: » I'm calling it Every single one of those boxes will be ticked by August 2021.
Marius34 wrote: » I'm giving a chance to change your opinion, otherwise I'll remind you in 5 months
THE State’s two pillar banks “cannot be trusted” and the banking and investment system has “utter contempt” for the Government, the Fine Gael parliamentary party has been told.
MacronvFrugals wrote: » THE State’s two pillar banks “cannot be trusted” and the banking and investment system has “utter contempt” for the Government, the Fine Gael parliamentary party has been told.
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