Subutai wrote: » Talk to someone who's lived in apartments in somewhere like Germany and here. My European colleagues have frequently been shocked at what we call apartments. I've no doubt there are lots of people living in apartments - Dublin is full of old buildings sub divided into apartments and packed as high as possible. That's not a sustainable way to live for small households, which is what the drive for more apartments is meant to accommodate.
schmittel wrote: » Perhaps you missed the relevant post if you have Props on ignore?
Hubertj wrote: » Sorry, I don’t follow.
PropQueries wrote: » Looks like the house price falls have started in London. According to Bloomberg today: "House Prices Are Plummeting in London’s Financial Districts. House prices in the City of London slumped 10.8% in the year through January, while Tower Hamlets, where rival financial district Canary Wharf is based, saw values drop 9.5%, according to a report by chartered surveyors e.surv. The best bargains are to be found in City of Westminster, the heart of the nation’s government. Prices there tumbled 37% compared with a year earlier - the sharpest drop seen in the capital." Link to article in Bloomberg here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-10/house-prices-are-plummeting-in-london-s-financial-districts
schmittel wrote: » Whether house prices went up or down is not the point I was making.
Hubertj wrote: » House prices increased in London during 2020.
schmittel wrote: » Odd how prices rising in London is held up as an example why prices rising in Dublin is perfectly normal, but if somebody points out prices are falling in London you come out with a comment like that.
fliball123 wrote: » AND what connection has your brain made to the Irish property market?
Hubertj wrote: » What do you mean by market forces in relation to planning? Only regarding student accommodation? If we ignore the ridiculous rents is purpose built student accommodation not common in most cities?
Timing belt wrote: » From the UK Data Flats have remained Static Year on year in London whilst other property types have risen... But no sign of a collapse yet. Source: https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/uk-house-price-index#:~:text=The%20UK%20House%20Price%20Index%20%28UK%20HPI%29%20captures,transactions%2C%20whether%20for%20cash%20or%20with%20a%20mortgage.
yagan wrote: » Two years from now we could be on the other side of the equation with a surplus where the only housing activity is retrofitting for WFH. International market forces were allowed to lead planning in Dublin in this boom and it's very likely that a lot of what's being completed now will be obsolete to requirement. Was it last summer that planning permission was sought for a 500 student apartment complex in the docks be switched to private rental? Vertical ghost estates.
Villa05 wrote: » In the last boom construction was a massive revenue generator, it appears to be a major drain now Would be good to get a full picture of what all this is costing the taxpayer
yagan wrote: However it would be highly ironic if the WFH switch finally benefits the ghost estates of the last boom while the new Dublin surplus become under subscribed.
Hubertj wrote: I think the 2 are linked - focus resources on finishing out existing projects in q4, hence the drop off on commencement notices. I think what will be more telling are the commencement notices as this year progresses along with the number of construction workers that remain unemployed / PUP...
Browney7 wrote: 1 billion a year in 2021 and likely to keep on increasing after that. Another fine and large ongoing liability that will be classified as current expenditure which realistically the state will have to pay for the next 20 years. If they actually had to set aside the money today that will be paid in HAP it would be easily north of 15 billion unless the plan is to stop HAP come hell or high water in a few years time.
Browney7 wrote: » This is another piece of can kicking to go with our pensions timebomb which is ticking away nicely in a cupboard in the department of finance.
PropQueries wrote: » New data (released today), shows that more than 80,000 households are in state-supported private rented accommodation and that the Hap scheme payments to landlords will rise from €436 million last year to in excess of €1 billion by the end of 2021 (this year). So, it's HAP alone is going to rise from €436m last year to over €1billion this year, and that's from the department of housing very own figures. So, is the state expecting the number of households receiving HAP to double from 80,000 households to 160,000 households this year or are they expecting rents to double or something in between? Link to article in Sunday Business Post here:https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/more-than-80000-households-are-in-state-supported-private-rented-accommodation-af10bd9b
Cyrus wrote: » yes i agree although it refers to disposable income so will be after tax, the exact definition would be useful though.
DataDude wrote: » I thought this too but it does seem to very clearly state "annual Household income" in the table header so it would be weird to present it as half the total income. Also think it's unlikely for the 5th decile household income to be (51*2 = 102k), for example.
yagan wrote: » More portents of high tide waning.
HansKroenke wrote: » Long term leases the councils are entering into with the institutionals are similar to the bank bailouts after 2008. The Irish taxpayer is being put on the hook for the speculators again.
Housing completions in Dublin hit a 10-year high in the final quarter of last year despite the pandemic causing widespread disruption across the construction sector. However, the report highlighted a fall-off in housing commencement notices, an indicator of future supply, which were down 25 per cent in the final quarter.
yagan wrote: » Interesting piece about oncoming supply to the market by the Marlet group. A little bird tells me that there's a good few Marlet sites around Dublin that never restarted after the first lockdown as they probably knew the WFH option had become part of business cost savings, so now they're focusing on getting what good residential developments finished and to market ASAP. International pension funds who had being buying developments off Marlet before the cement mixers were churning are not snapping. It's entirely likely that the Dublin bust has already happened but as in 2006 only those at building site level can see that.
With demand for Dublin’s private rented sector (PRS) market undimmed by the Covid-19 pandemic, developer Pat Crean’s Marlet Property Group will be hoping to take advantage of the continuing appetite of institutional investors for prime opportunities in the capital by bringing Ireland’s largest-ever PRS portfolio to the market. The forward sale, which is being handled by sole adviser Cantor Fitzgerald, is expected to attract offers in excess of €1 billion.
HansKroenke wrote: » https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/why-controls-are-preventing-rents-from-falling-faster-1.4505727?mode=amp This is the first article I've seen in the main Irish media which makes claims about the RPZs stopping rents from falling and explaining how the declines in rents from the recorded metrics might not tell the whole story about the actual state of the rental market due to the covid restrictions. The anecdotal accounts in the other thread in the Significant Falls in Rent (or whatever it is titled) did get at the rental market being in the process of crashing but the media did not seem to match these anecdotal accounts until now. Extracts;
Cyrus wrote: » basis what you are saying it would appear they are referring to couples? 2*35k = 70k * 3.5 = 245k + deposit. edit/ looking at the post it appears not, although it refers to net income not gross
johnnyskeleton wrote: » Am I reading that right? The average wage of say the 3rd percentile is around 35k and they think that the affordability threshold for them is around 240k i.e. 6 times their income? Those in the 8th decile earn on average 92k and should be able to afford 640k i.e. nearly 7 times their income?I wonder how, in practical terms DCC think that those on 92k should be able to buy the 640k house. Do they save up a deposit of 272k while also renting etc? The whole thing is madness!
Why controls are preventing rents from falling faster Landlords getting imaginative when it comes to reductions – but at no small cost to tenants Indeed back in January, Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien said that the issue with rent pressure zones was that “4 per cent nearly became a target for landlords”. But since the advent of the pandemic a further issue has arisen.Not only have rent controls failed to rein in rental growth, now they’re also stopping rents from falling. With hundreds of thousands on wage subsidies, a switch to working from home, more short-term lets back on the long-term market, not to mention significant uncertainty as the economy starts to unwind from the pandemic, and there’s no doubt that the market has softened.Official statistics do not show the scale, however. According to the latest index of rents from the Residential Tenancies Board (RTB), rents are still increasing, up by 1.4 per cent in the third quarter of 2020, with an average rent in Dublin of €1,758 a month, up by 1 per cent on the year. More recent figures from Daft.ie show a drop of 3.3 per cent in the capital, but there are several reasons why the real rate of decline may be even greater. Rather than drop rents in line with market demand, landlords are trying to find other ways of offering discounts to tenants without touching the “formal” rental rate. As reported earlier this month, US property investment company Greystaris offering up to six weeks free rent on its Dublin Landings development, where rents are about €3,800 for a two-bed. And it’s not the only one. Another option, for tenants who run into financial difficulties during the pandemic is to offer a deferred payment plan, rather than a rent reduction. This is the approach favoured by some of the larger institutional landlords, including Ires Reit. Another option is to simply leave the unit vacant. A recent RTÉ report found that two of landlord Kennedy Wilson’s developments – Capital Dock on the docklands where rents start at about €2,970 and Clancy Quay in Dublin 8 – are only about half full, while another, from Goodbody Stockbrokers, found a vacancy level of about 30 per cent in newly built luxury developments.Why not cut rents? If a landlord was to formally recognise a cut in rents, by notifying the RTB of the new rent, then they would be bound by the aforementioned [RPZ] rules, which limit their ability to raise them again. It’s understood, however, that informal reductions do not carry this same weight. This is complicated further by the Government’s mooted proposals come next December. Time is running out on rent-pressure zones and the Government must come up with a replacement by year-end. Mr O’Brien said the Government is looking at “broader market protections”, which include linking rents to the consumer price index (CPI). Given the outlook for inflation this could be good news for tenants and is supported by organisations such as Threshold, which supports tenant rights. If a landlord could only increase rents in line with the CPI then a €200 reduction last year would mean that by 2023 rent could only have increased to €2,046.Landlords are trying to hold tight to the headline rents, until (if and when) the economy recovers, even if they must incentivise new and existing tenants in other ways. Of course how long they can manage to do this will depend on market forces, which in turn will likely depend on the ultimate fall-out from the pandemic.
johnnyskeleton wrote: » Am I reading that right? The average wage of say the 3rd percentile is around 35k and they think that the affordability threshold for them is around 240k i.e. 6 times their income? Those in the 8th decile earn on average 92k and should be able to afford 640k i.e. nearly 7 times their income? I wonder how, in practical terms DCC think that those on 92k should be able to buy the 640k house. Do they save up a deposit of 272k while also renting etc? The whole thing is madness!
Timing belt wrote: » The following is there projection of Affordable housing The Following is their projection of Disposable household Income
PropQueries wrote: » If the pre-covid regularly media reported figures of c. 5,000 AirBnB homes in Dublin was correct and the Minister for Housing said back in July that: “The Airbnb properties that are now not being used – is there an opportunity for the state to buy more of them? It’s something that I’m looking at, absolutely. It is something that I want to do frankly,” said O’Brien. If there are opportunities for the state to buy, at reasonable prices, so we can house people and then they can rent them on a secure basis from the state, then we should.” Wouldn't that number of former AirBnB houses and apartments fit in nicely with the c. 4,000 homes figure DCC stated they had currently earmarked for purchase or rental? It is 8 months later at this stage. Link to Minister for Housing interview in July 2020 here: https://www.thejournal.ie/darragh-o-brien-housing-minister-5146915-Jul2020/
