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Orange Wind Warning for Cork & Kerry - Strong Winds 10th & 11th March

M.T. Cranium

If there was a choice of LEVEL 0 Weather Watch that's what I would have chosen as the prefix ... but with broad model agreement on a strong wind event late Wednesday, it seems unlikely not to verify within 24 hours of the given timing as a level one at least, maps at the present time are consistent with Level 2 outcomes (orange level warnings). That could change, of course.

The winds are expected to be generated by an accelerating and deepening low currently in developmental stages between Bermuda and New England (closer to Bermuda). It's very little to see today, but is expected to generate a well-organized low southeast of Newfoundland by Monday. That would continue to head east-north-east under steadily increasing upper level winds being forced into a tight gradient by Tuesday by a polar vortex dropping south near Iceland.

This could all come to nothing, of course, but with just about every model showing a tight gradient of westerly winds sweeping through Ireland on Wednesday night, I thought maybe now would be as good a time as any to start discussing it, especially with the current weather pattern being such that we are slowly losing members to the philately and necromancy forums.

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M.T. Cranium

No pattern of upgrades in 00z guidance so can probably take the red alert potential off the table, however, tides for Galway fairly well supported by the wind max, low tide predicted for 9:23 pm Wednesday, high tide 0253 Thursday. That one could be problematic.

Low is moving very rapidly now, at about one deg longitude per hour. Latest position about 51N 29W. Estimated pressure 964 mbs.

Birdnuts

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

Wilder here in South dublin than any of the named storms this winter.

My parents were saying the same 2nite near Naas

[Deleted User]

Why no name for this storm.

pad199207

Already very gusty in Kildare this evening with gusts of 60-70kmh.

M.T. Cranium

That might happen at Kinsale energy and elevated lighthouse stations. This is closing in rather quickly now, there won't be much of a let up from tonight's preliminary round to the mid-day ramp up tomorrow. Front is at least 8 hours ahead of the pressure trough already. 18z RGEM takes the low to margin of its grid by 24h but looking intense around the M6 buoy at that time. Once again, strongest gradients are at Ireland's latitude rather than anywhere to north.

corsav6

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I hope it peaks in the orange range but I suspect Mace Head for example could hit 130 km/hr, Newport 115-120 for peak gusts. There's some chance this might actually be worse further south than Belmullet or Malin Head, however it's a bit early to get too precise on details, with this rapid development and fast motion we can assume it will be widespread and severe. The 18z guidance looks like an upgrade, I guess they had the input of that 85 knot ship report and a few other factors like perhaps the low has deepened a bit more explosively than models had been showing earlier.

Some chance I suppose of a fast rebound from this phase to the weakening phase but I wouldn't bet the ranch on that by the looks of the upper level winds.

Thanks MT, I appreciate your reply.
Even 130km/hr is bearable although rough. It's when gusts pass the 150km/hr things get interesting.

Gaoth Laidir

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Would say looking at model guidance this will get upgraded to orange for at least the west coast if not more widely, the current wind reports are from a much weaker leading wave that is no more than half as intense in terms of gradient. Also looking at the GFS depiction, the centre really doesn't make much gain in latitude and slams the core into the west coast. Okay, it's weaker looking then than now, but there's some room to weaken before getting to orange, this would be Darwin on steroids if Ireland was about to be hit by what's out there right now.

It's an STI Mystery to me why that oil tanker was routed so as to be overtaken by this bomb cyclone, not only a bomb but 1.25 bomb units (30 mb in 24 hrs).

Recent satellite image:

https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_sigwx_1070_100.jpg

In fact, it's about 1.5 units (Bergerons), as 1 unit is defined as 24xSin(latitude)/Sin(60). The 24 hPa/24 hrs only applies to a latitude of 60 degrees. South of that a unit is <24 hPa. At a latitude of 48N it works out at about 19.2 hPa/24 hrs.

PokeHerKing

Wild enough in Tallaght as well. Knowing how these things go tonight will probably be windier than the main event.

r93kaey5p2izun

I'm in Lucan and I'm surprised by the strength of the gusts. There's a growl in the chimney and the bins have gone over. Nothing dangerous or anything, but worse than we've had in a good while. Unexpected!

M.T. Cranium

corsav6 wrote: »

Any idea how we'll fare out on West Mayo coast? I absolutely hate severe windstorms, and I don't fancy a red alert storm at all.

I hope it peaks in the orange range but I suspect Mace Head for example could hit 130 km/hr, Newport 115-120 for peak gusts. There's some chance this might actually be worse further south than Belmullet or Malin Head, however it's a bit early to get too precise on details, with this rapid development and fast motion we can assume it will be widespread and severe. The 18z guidance looks like an upgrade, I guess they had the input of that 85 knot ship report and a few other factors like perhaps the low has deepened a bit more explosively than models had been showing earlier.

Some chance I suppose of a fast rebound from this phase to the weakening phase but I wouldn't bet the ranch on that by the looks of the upper level winds.

Gaoth Laidir

AMSR2 measured winds at 1609Z this afternoon. Some of the vomit overboard has been reported in southern Iceland this evening...

endainoz

Looks like North Clare will get a bit of a hammering tomorrow afternoon onwards. All outdoor jobs will get done earlier in the day, though with it being calving season that could change. Not much of a let up in the strong gusts untill Friday either. Hopefully things will clear out heading into next week.

corsav6

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

How about orange local red, the 18z GFS is a sort of aborted takeoff scenario with the low bouncing off the 50N runway a couple of times and wiping out into Donegal. All coastal areas will be orange to low end red given the momentum from current state, there's only slight weakening depicted to strongest gradient hitting Ireland.

While the peak will be around midnight, very strong gusts likely from mid-day to the peak due to the occluded front being whipped around in front of the system.

Bet they go orange any second now. Places like Galway Bay, coast of Clare, exposed spots around Kerry and Cork, could be local red or at least borderline orange-red verifications, also the coastal overtopping potential and wave damage given this fetch and current reported sea states ... and factor in how calm the weather was for a week before this, only a few reports of noticeable wind gusts so far ... it adds up to an unexpectedly severe event (in my current opinion, could change by morning).

Any idea how we'll fare out on West Mayo coast? I absolutely hate severe windstorms, and I don't fancy a red alert storm at all.

M.T. Cranium

SouthWesterly wrote: »

Traveling from kerry to Dublin Thursday morning at 6.

Will I miss the worst of it?

Yes and no, you'll be in the worst of it overnight and it may be slightly improved by 0600h then assuming this is a road trip it should be blustery but main hazard or slowdown factor might be cleaning up debris from fallen trees earlier, however your previous night's storm experience might have a bearing on the outcome too.

M.T. Cranium

How about orange local red, the 18z GFS is a sort of aborted takeoff scenario with the low bouncing off the 50N runway a couple of times and wiping out into Donegal. All coastal areas will be orange to low end red given the momentum from current state, there's only slight weakening depicted to strongest gradient hitting Ireland.

While the peak will be around midnight, very strong gusts likely from mid-day to the peak due to the occluded front being whipped around in front of the system.

Bet they go orange any second now. Places like Galway Bay, coast of Clare, exposed spots around Kerry and Cork, could be local red or at least borderline orange-red verifications, also the coastal overtopping potential and wave damage given this fetch and current reported sea states ... and factor in how calm the weather was for a week before this, only a few reports of noticeable wind gusts so far ... it adds up to an unexpectedly severe event (in my current opinion, could change by morning).

Widdensushi

Screenshot_20210309_214335_com.marinetraffic.android.jpg

Going from good hope to Amsterdam

[Deleted User]

Traveling from kerry to Dublin Thursday morning at 6.

Will I miss the worst of it?

M.T. Cranium

Would say looking at model guidance this will get upgraded to orange for at least the west coast if not more widely, the current wind reports are from a much weaker leading wave that is no more than half as intense in terms of gradient. Also looking at the GFS depiction, the centre really doesn't make much gain in latitude and slams the core into the west coast. Okay, it's weaker looking then than now, but there's some room to weaken before getting to orange, this would be Darwin on steroids if Ireland was about to be hit by what's out there right now.

It's an STI Mystery to me why that oil tanker was routed so as to be overtaken by this bomb cyclone, not only a bomb but 1.25 bomb units (30 mb in 24 hrs).

Recent satellite image:

https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_sigwx_1070_100.jpg

antodeco

virginmediapls wrote: »

Three bins knocked over here. Logged onto met.ie expecting I missed a warning - nope.

This is absolutely the strongest storm in Lucan so far this year.

In Lucan too and there's a definite boom off those gusts. Can hear lots of rattles and movements

virginmediapls

Three bins knocked over here. Logged onto met.ie expecting I missed a warning - nope.

This is absolutely the strongest storm in Lucan so far this year.

M.T. Cranium

I guess they turned the ship into the southwest wind to stay upright and then had to keep veering with the wind, at one point looks like they might have thought of continuing east and that either failed or proved impossible so they turned around again and headed northwest -- I would think those are 15 min intervals given the positions I know from the NDBC site. There again, another mystery is that no reports globally since this ship got into the hurricane winds.

Maybe everybody jumped out of their chairs at NDBC and knocked the servers off line.

Anyway, this other report seems to be saying they have gotten to a position with only 45 knot winds so maybe they will make it back to port. You have to wonder what the heck they were doing on their navigation yesterday to get into this situation. Being this far north, I assume the ship came from a Canadian port not U.S. because that ship route would be closer to 40 N if heading for Europe. Their briefings would be from the Canadian agency with access to maps that I saw three days ago with this storm clearly shown at its correct location. So somebody screwed up here.

Picture of the STI Mystery and other info here ...

https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/STI-MYSTERY-IMO-9829461-MMSI-563063900#:~:text=The%20vessel%20STI%20MYSTERY%20%28IMO%3A%209829461%2C%20MMSI%20563063900%29,flag%20of%20Singapore.%20Track%20on%20Map%20Add%20Photo

Chris_5339762

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

One renowned Dublin-based online wealth of journalistic excellence has a very level-headed assessment of this system. I'm not going to give them the satisfaction of clicks by posting the link. The "experts" they refer to is Weather Alerts Ireland...:rolleyes:

Something like "Met Eireann predict BIG CHANGE for rural Ireland in 48 hour Red Warning weather bomb HELL"

Reckless Abandonment

Wilder here in South dublin than any of the named storms this winter.

Harry Palmr

In Waterford. Surprisingly gusty!

Widdensushi

Attachment not found.

M.T. Cranium

Tazio, that's it alright, something odd going on with the ship reports too, nothing for 18z or 19z (generally not just this one). The location at 17z was 45.1 N 41.4 W, two hours previous had been 45.0 N 41.4 W, at 12z 45.1 N 41.3 W (back then strong south wind), then I think it's the same vessel as one reporting at 08z from 44.9 N 42.2 W.

That would indicate eastward drift of 0.9 deg longitude 08z to 12z and 0.1 deg gained back 12z to 15z, with winds gradually veering to headwind from crosswind. Sea state would be very poor and some floating ice a possibility.

Hopefully they can ride it out and start moving again, looks to me like they were either always headed west, or were overtaken by the storm heading east and decided to turn around and seek port in Newfoundland. I can see one report that supports option (b) there from around 06z but can't be sure it's the same vessel. The reports don't go back much beyond 06z.

Nothing on our news at last hour about this, but that might not be surprising.

Widdensushi

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Low analyzed at 972 mb near 48N 40W at 18z.

Alarming ship report from a position just south of the centre (and you would ask, what is a ship doing at that location? the low was on all guidance three days ago) has west-southwesterly winds 83.9 knots (39' waves) which suggests high danger of this vessel not surviving, for one thing there would be icebergs in that area of the Atlantic, the low just crossed a narrow finger of the Labrador current. That report was at 17z, there's something odd going on with the data site with no reports for the 18z or 19z hours at all. I looked back to earlier hours to get some idea of what direction this ship was trying to go, and I don't think it's an oil platform, those are further west closer to Newfoundland. Anyway, even more alarming, this ship is apparently trying to go west (after 12z) but earlier (09z) was further west than now, and has been stuck for hours, it changed position from 12z to 17z by about 0.1 deg of long and lat, and had winds even stronger at 85 knots earlier. Not sure what's going on with this one, back at 10z it was further west by almost 2 deg, so either blown backwards by these winds and waves, or turned around and is disabled.

Not saying this means much for the forecast but have never seen a ship report quite like this unless it's some bizarro naval training exercise.

Sti mystery, 30000 tonne tanker built 2019? Maybe I have the wrong one?

Meteorite58

Very strong winds for a time tomorrow night in Kerry, Clare and running along southern coastal fringes . Coastal Waterford and Wexford could get clipped by very strong winds for a time in the early hours.

Wouldn't take much more to bring Kerry into Orange warning level I reckon. S Kerry looks to get strong winds gusting up around 120 km/h tomorrow night, very strong gusts on high ground coming in from the SW

Looks like high end yellow for Clare, W Galway, W Cork.

Strong winds running across the country in the early hours

Some heavy squally rain at times.

Strongest winds mostly cleared the E coast by around 08.00

Graces7

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Low analyzed at 972 mb near 48N 40W at 18z.

Alarming ship report from a position just south of the centre (and you would ask, what is a ship doing at that location? the low was on all guidance three days ago) has west-southwesterly winds 83.9 knots (39' waves) which suggests high danger of this vessel not surviving, for one thing there would be icebergs in that area of the Atlantic, the low just crossed a narrow finger of the Labrador current. That report was at 17z, there's something odd going on with the data site with no reports for the 18z or 19z hours at all. I looked back to earlier hours to get some idea of what direction this ship was trying to go, and I don't think it's an oil platform, those are further west closer to Newfoundland. Anyway, even more alarming, this ship is apparently trying to go west (after 12z) but earlier (09z) was further west than now, and has been stuck for hours, it changed position from 12z to 17z by about 0.1 deg of long and lat, and had winds even stronger at 85 knots earlier. Not sure what's going on with this one, back at 10z it was further west by almost 2 deg, so either blown backwards by these winds and waves, or turned around and is disabled.

Not saying this means much for the forecast but have never seen a ship report quite like this unless it's some bizarro naval training exercise.

It reminds me of something that happened in a bad storm when I was in Orkney .A small boat... emerged he had literally lost his engine as the cabin was smashed. . it could be engine failure. Is an alarm out for him?

Beechwoodspark

An oppressively strong wind in north Kildare

Vapour swirling in the air.

Low clouds, no moonshine, the wind howling in the trees.

A long challenging yet survivable eventide ahead.