PropQueries wrote: » I agree. All I'm wondering is if a similar percentage left Dublin.
PropQueries wrote: » I'm basing my opinion on an article in The Economist on the 30th January 2021: "How the pandemic reversed old migration patterns in Europe" "In 2020 Europe saw a great reverse migration, as those who had sought work abroad returned home. Exact numbers are hard to come by. An estimated 1.3m Romanians went back to Romania—equivalent to three times the population of its second-biggest city. Perhaps 500,000 Bulgarians returned to Bulgaria—a huge number for a country of 7m. Lithuania has seen more citizens arriving than leaving for the first time in years. Other measures show the same. In Warsaw, dating apps brim with returning Poles looking for socially undistanced fun." Link to article in The Economist here: https://www.economist.com/europe/2021/01/30/how-the-pandemic-reversed-old-migration-patterns-in-europe
PropQueries wrote: » On the 12th February 2012, according to the Financial Times: "City centre housing rents fall as tenants move to suburbs" "Rents fell last year by 8.3 per cent in Greater London, the steepest annual fall since the financial crisis of 2008, according to a report published this week by property website Zoopla. Rents also fell in Manchester, Birmingham, Edinburgh and Aberdeen, albeit by smaller margins." Lets see how quickly property values follow the rental income falls. How long can those investors in those empty apartments prevail for? Link to FT article here: https://www.ft.com/content/5b5e0c37-a14c-4044-86d7-7ed78474dbfb
Cyrus wrote: » Is there any reference to the fact that all of those that returned are highly trained and educated because I’d wager the majority of those held onto their jobs and probably stayed here and those in the services industries and construction went home.
Timing belt wrote: » From the UK Data Flats have remained Static Year on year in London whilst other property types have risen... But no sign of a collapse yet. Source: https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/uk-house-price-index#:~:text=The%20UK%20House%20Price%20Index%20%28UK%20HPI%29%20captures,transactions%2C%20whether%20for%20cash%20or%20with%20a%20mortgage.
PropQueries wrote: » Maybe. Even The Economist admits it's very hard to gather the data. Either way, they're bringing back the western way of doing things skills. It's nothing but good news for the eastern EU countries IMO
PropQueries wrote: » Once again, you're very good with the data. And I really do appreciate that. But when did property prices really start falling significantly in Ireland after the last bust? 2, 3, 4 years? It's been about 12 months since this pandemic started and obviously until investors get their heads around what's really happening they will hold out. Investors are generally optimists by nature. But they turn very pessimistic, very quickly when the data starts rolling in IMO
Cyrus wrote: » Either that or they will all come back when things return to normal. The eastern countries will be a force but they are a generation or two behind us.
Villa05 wrote: » Does anyone know why apartments are suddenly far more expensive to build than houses, when the opposite was the case up to very recently? You would need some serious specific inflation turn that on its head Is this another con job by the industry knowing that the main shortage of accomodation is 1 and 2 bed units and that the state and reits who pay no tax are the main customers?
Timing belt wrote: » Yes it can take time after a recession for everything to flow through the pipes but the difference this time around is that the governments stepped in to fill the void created by the event. Will it enough to prevent a massive crash we don't know as it is to early to say so. With the US passing the stimulus on Saturday it ensures that the can is kicked down the road for another few months till the market starts screaming for more funds to boost it's already inflated prices. At some stage the house of cards will crash but whether we are at that stage or not is unknow but the market doesn't look as if it is turning as you say it is.
Timing belt wrote: When Rents started to rise so did the value of the underlying properties.... Most of these were flats (or apartments to make them sound nicer).
PropQueries wrote: » I don't know. The political narrative in the bigger world economies appears to be taking a turn. They may have finally accepted that we have reached the end of that road with the can and there's no more room for kicking. Basically burst that bubble now before it gets totally out of control. "Times they are a changin'" as they say IMO One example is, according to The Times today: "Rishi Sunak has enlisted America’s support to launch an international campaign to raise taxes on online companies such as Amazon that have cashed in on the coronavirus pandemic. The chancellor plans to use the G7 summit, which Britain is hosting in June, to push for changes to global laws so he can increase taxes on internet firms. Sunak revealed he had already had talks with Janet Yellen, the US Treasury secretary. One of my priorities in the G7 this year, which I’ve already started work on, is to try and get international agreement on a new way to tax these companies,” the chancellor said. “I spend a lot of time talking to my finance minister colleagues around the world about this issue." Link to The Times article here: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-recruits-us-to-raise-taxes-on-internet-giants-z9qtstdln
Hubertj wrote: » https://mk0societyofchag3d3v.kinstacdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/SCSI_RealCostofNewApartmentDelivery_final.pdf This is a pretty detailed analysis but according to some the SCSI is in on the whole things so this breakdown should be rejected.
Villa05 wrote: » Sorry, I phrased my question badly Rents rising should not effect the cost of construction. Less land required for apartments so land appreciation would imply houses should be more expensive I'm trying to figure out what input has made apartments more expensive to build than houses
Timing belt wrote: » It might have something to do with complying with fire regulations and not just throwing up any type of building like they did previously. It would be interesting to see how Dublin compares with London in costs of building mid to high rise apartments.
Timing belt wrote: » The bubble is already totally out of control and it's not just in the property market.... Interest rates have been falling for 45 years and every-time rates are reduced the market reprices assets by increasing the asset cost to reflect the new yield. It is the main reason why the stock market always gives a return and why people say in the long term you are better investing in the stock market. Every time rates rise or when a central bank tappers its QE the market crashes just look at the market last week they were expecting the fed to announce new QE with a Twist to manage the yield curve and it didn't happen and prices started heading south. Will the central banks continue to step in and try and pump the markets and keep them going... yes until they have used every last thing in there arsenal and they still have a bit of dry powder left so I wouldn't be surprised if rates went lower to keep the boat afloat. You make a big deal of the Tax issue and I understand where you are coming from but the US and the UK have to many vested interests to allow any meaningful change. If they were serious about that they would close loopholes first but that hasn't happened and won't so it is just a smoke screen to make people think that they are doing something.
PropQueries wrote: » You're joking right? Fire regulations have added e.g. c. €300k to the cost of building each and every apartment in a block of say 100 apartments? I wouldn't be looking at London. I would be looking at the UK's provincial towns to arrive at more realistic costs to building apartments IMO
Hubertj wrote: » More posturing by the uk. Only an idiot would suggest the uk could influence global tax policy. Either it happens at OECD or it doesn’t happen. If anyone move unilaterally it turns into a sh*tshow and they lose out in medium term. Uk he the triple whammy of brexit, Covid and changed US administration to deal with. I also believe digital tax is covered under Pilar 1 of the proposed oecd tax reforms.
PropQueries wrote: » Well in 2019, the BBC reported: "France passes tax on tech giants despite US threats" These upcoming OECD global tax reforms need to appease the UK, France etc. and the United States, but especially the many EU countries who have their legislation ready to go to tax the multinationals if they don't like the end agreement IMO Link to BBC article here: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48947922
Timing belt wrote: » No it's not all Fire regulation but if you look at the properties that SF property developer McFeely’s brought to the market ignoring Fire regulation certainly cut costs in developing them. Why would I look at a UK Provincial town and not London's development costs.... Are you not the one that has been saying that it costs the same to build in Waterford as it does in Dublin
PropQueries wrote: » I would actually compare Waterford to Dublin more than I would compare Dublin to London
Timing belt wrote: » your argument was that costs should be the same with the exception of land.. I would expect Dublin to be more expensive that London in building mid to high rise apartments (excluding land) because London have been doing it longer and will be more efficient at it but neither the less it does give you something to compare and benchmark against.
PropQueries wrote: » Yes, between different towns in Ireland, not between Dublin and London The costs of building a house in Dublin is much the same as the cost of building a house in Co. Waterford compared to Dublin when land costs are removed from the equation IMO London has a completely different dynamic and cost base. You can't put a shovel in the ground in London without hitting something of historical importance and they have much more complex and rigid building regulations etc. In Dublin there's nothing but empty fields so that doesn't really apply, southside or northside IMO There's absolutely no reason why new build a-rated 2 bed terraced houses in e.g. Swords, should cost more (maybe 10% max) than the new build a-rated 2 bed terraced houses that a developer was selling in Co. Waterford last year for c. €160k IMO
Hubertj wrote: » https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/nedanone-castlecove-kerry/4401120 How would you go about getting this evaluated? First step to get a building contractor and or engineer to evaluate work done to date then estimate costs to finish it? I presume contractors could be reluctant to take on a half finished job due to uncertainty about quality of work carried out by someone else?
