How long before Irish reunification? (Part 2) Threadbans in OP

Looking on the more positive news this week, good to see the British Isles pulling together in a bid for the world cup, showing how strong the pull of the original united Kingdom still is despite it all. An indication that we can still pull together when we want to.

downcow wrote: »

I don’t want to disappoint you but an ITV poll was released today which shows almost 60% of NI residents want to remain in UK. And that’s with brexit, Irish Sea border and carrots from Spain.
You have a long way to go to convince all those from a catholic background before you even start on those from a prody background.
I admire your optimism and determination lol

Eh, 50%+1... it's not a long way from 43% not to mention that there's a hape of don't knows in there.

But if you sleep easier tonight...

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

Looking on the more positive news this week, good to see the British Isles pulling together in a bid for the world cup, showing how strong the pull of the original united Kingdom still is despite it all. An indication that we can still pull together when we want to.

Yeah, that's not happening and it has already ben superseded by the Loyalist threats of violence and the threat of unilateral action by the UK Gov.

You were very quiet about the loyalist statement actually? Anything to add?

FrancieBrady

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Eh, 50%+1... it's not a long way from 43% not to mention that there's a hape of don't knows in there.

But if you sleep easier tonight...

All you need to do is look at where Scottish Independence was in the polls when their indy ref was called and where they ended up.

RobMc59

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I suppose they could lay claim to cheesy peas. Though el Presidente might have something to say about that.

Not to mention German taytos.

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Eh, 50%+1...

Looked at realisitically, rather then from a point of self deception, it isnt 50%+1 though is it ?

FrancieBrady wrote: »

All you need to do is look at where Scottish Independence was in the polls when their indy ref was called and where they ended up.

I know that and you know that...

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

Looked at realisitically, rather then from a point of self deception, it isnt 50%+1 though is it ?

What isn't?

Any thoughts on the loyalist paramilitary rejection of a peace agreement supported by the majority of the citizens in the north?

BonnieSituation wrote: »

What isn't?

The required movement from 43% that you refer to.

ulster

lurleen lumpkin wrote: »

Britannia Unchained etc

Or Britannia ..... Unhinged

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

The required movement from 43% that you refer to.

Yea it is remarkable, if NI is the terrible failure they say it is, that they can’t get anywhere near to even half the people thinking that a UI would be a better place to live.

ulster

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

Looking on the more positive news this week, good to see the British Isles pulling together in a bid for the world cup, showing how strong the pull of the original united Kingdom still is despite it all. An indication that we can still pull together when we want to.

I want to vomit. Haha

FrancieBrady

That has to be one of the lowest numbers polled in a 'representative' poll I have ever seen.
Not an expert on plls, but seems odd.

Savanta ComRes interviewed 1,008 Scottish adults aged 16 and above, 1,003 Welsh adults aged 16 and above, and 510 Northern Irish adults aged 18 and above.

The interviews were carried out online from 18-22 February 2021.

Savanta ComRes also interviewed 1,924 English adults aged 18 and over from 19-21 February 2021.

Data has been weighted to be representative of English adults by age, gender, region and 2016 vote; Scottish adults by age, gender, region, 2014 and 2016 votes; Welsh adults by age, gender, region and 2016 vote; and Northern Irish adults by age, gender, region, religious community and 2016 vote.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That has to be one of the lowest numbers polled in a 'representative' poll I have ever seen.
Not an expert on plls, but seems odd.

No, it isnt odd, and is statistically a usefully indicative sample size.

downcow wrote: »

I don’t want to disappoint you but an ITV poll was released today which shows almost 60% of NI residents want to remain in UK. And that’s with brexit, Irish Sea border and carrots from Spain.
You have a long way to go to convince all those from a catholic background before you even start on those from a prody background.
I admire your optimism and determination lol

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Eh, 50%+1... it's not a long way from 43% not to mention that there's a hape of don't knows in there.

But if you sleep easier tonight...

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

Looked at realisitically, rather then from a point of self deception, it isnt 50%+1 though is it ?

BonnieSituation wrote: »

What isn't?

Any thoughts on the loyalist paramilitary rejection of a peace agreement supported by the majority of the citizens in the north?

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

The required movement from 43% that you refer to.

---

Here's how that all played out for your pleasure.

---

Anyway, you were saying about those Loyalist threats?

Junkyard Tom

downcow wrote: »

Yea it is remarkable, if NI is the terrible failure they say it is, that they can’t get anywhere near to even half the people thinking that a UI would be a better place to live.

The DUP are utterly terrified of a border poll they're so confident in the outcome.

They DUP (now aided and abetted by the UUP) have behaved abominably and will drive 'don't knows' to vote for a United Ireland and soft Unionists to Alliance where they'll gradually 'de-unionist' themselves.

My goodness Republican dissidents must be in absolute convulsions of laughter at the mess the DUP/UUP have made of their 'union'.

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The DUP are utterly terrified of a border poll they're so confident in the outcome.

They DUP (now aided and abetted by the UUP) have behaved abominably and will drive 'don't knows' to vote for a United Ireland and soft Unionists to Alliance where they'll gradually 'de-unionist' themselves.

My goodness Republican dissidents must be in absolute convulsions of laughter at the mess the DUP/UUP have made of their 'union'.

The UUP had such an obvious route back to the top when Mick was in charge and they fupped it up.

Now they're running around like the rump that they are.

I was busy earlier with coláiste that I couldn't watch the ITV show itself, just stuck it on there. Will report back...

EDIT: "It's a union that's lasted centuries..." good opening gambit there Julia.

lurleen lumpkin

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

My goodness Republican dissidents must be in absolute convulsions of laughter at the mess the DUP/UUP have made of their 'union'.

And bemused at their new status as role model and scholar to the wee novice loyalist paramilitaries.

jm08

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

No, it isnt odd, and is statistically a usefully indicative sample size.

The England one had under 2,000 (of 50 million people). The Claire Byrne Live straw polls has about that number out of 5 million people.

The numbers are fine lads and I'm saying that from the POV of someone who is knee deep in Data Analytics.

What isn't fine is how I am struggling to find the proportion of don't knows anywhere. My googling is failing me tonight. Classic British Stout.

Anyone come across them?

jm08 wrote: »

The England one had under 2,000 (of 50 million people). The Claire Byrne Live straw polls has about that number out of 5 million people.

It doesnt really work like that. Its the quality of the sample rather than the size in polling that matters, given that you are never going to get within even a tiny fraction of the actually referendum/election participation. Or looking at it another way, if you could select the perfect representative sample, 10 people would be enough for an accuracy of 10 percent, or 50 people for an accuracy of 2%. I cant comment on those doing this poll specifically, but it is very much a quality not quantity capability, and in principal, for something like that poll, as long as you are in the hundreds, its likely representative data.

briany

I don't think the DUP have much to fear of a border poll in the near future, but I don't think they'd want one anyway just because of the symbolism of it, ie the very idea that a UI is that possibly near.

Between a slim majority of Unionists in the electorate plus pragmatism (fears of renewed violence, fears of losing the NHS), plus the fact that political tribalism has diminished somewhat in NI, then short of a longterm period of UK economic stagnation (a possibility with Brexit) or a strong surge in Nationalist numbers, NI will stay a part of the UK for the foreseeable.

Fionn1952

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

It doesnt really work like that. Its the quality of the sample rather than the size in polling that matters, given that you are never going to get within even a tiny fraction of the actually referendum/election participation. Or looking at it another way, if you could select the perfect representative sample, 10 people would be enough for an accuracy of 10 percent, or 50 people for an accuracy of 2%. I cant comment on those doing this poll specifically, but it is very much a quality not quantity capability, and in principal, for something like that poll, as long as you are in the hundreds, its likely representative data.

You've never done any sort of real world statistical analyses, have you? Sample size is much more significant than you imply, and a sample of 10, even with a perfectly representative sample would have an error bar in great excess of +/-10%. I get that you're low grade trolling and trying to wind people up, but at least look up basic statistics before making ridiculous claims like this.

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The DUP are utterly terrified of a border poll they're so confident in the outcome.

They DUP (now aided and abetted by the UUP) have behaved abominably and will drive 'don't knows' to vote for a United Ireland and soft Unionists to Alliance where they'll gradually 'de-unionist' themselves.

My goodness Republican dissidents must be in absolute convulsions of laughter at the mess the DUP/UUP have made of their 'union'.

Haha. Same point. If they have made such a mess of the union, and that poll is in the last fortnight, what does that say for the mess people think a UI would be.
Can you imagine if we had decent representation for the union? Whatever way you look at it United Irelanders must be depressed.

BonnieSituation wrote: »

The UUP had such an obvious route back to the top when Mick was in charge and they fupped it up.

Now they're running around like the rump that they are.

I was busy earlier with coláiste that I couldn't watch the ITV show itself, just stuck it on there. Will report back...

EDIT: "It's a union that's lasted centuries..." good opening gambit there Julia.

I haven’t seen it but I’ll not be paying much attention to your prejudiced critique of it bonnie

BonnieSituation wrote: »

The numbers are fine lads and I'm saying that from the POV of someone who is knee deep in Data Analytics.

What isn't fine is how I am struggling to find the proportion of don't knows anywhere. My googling is failing me tonight. Classic British Stout.

Anyone come across them?

I haven’t watched the show but their interpretation of the data will inevitably be skewed. The are making a tv programme and want to show that the UK is near breakup, otherwise their programme has no point to it.
It would be good to see the raw data

downcow wrote: »

I haven’t watched the show but their interpretation of the data will inevitably be skewed. The are making a tv programme and want to show that the UK is near breakup, otherwise their programme has no point to it.
It would be good to see the raw data

No real stats yet but this is interesting from itv on it.

“ 43% of people in Northern Ireland would vote to unify with the Republic of Ireland, with 72% reasoning that the country is historically Irish”

I could certainly be wrong but my interpretation of what is being said is that 72% of the 43% reason history For their support for a united ireland. If true, that is shocking. By my calculations it means that only 12% of Ni residents want a UI firstly for any reason other than romantic notion that it was once Irish
Astounding that less that 12% put quality of life as a reason for wanting a UI.

Shows it is still a battle of the heart and soul and not the mind and wallet (unless of course everyone in ni is confident Roi is a poorer place). A battle which nationalists are clearly losing as more and more of those traditionally Irish Catholic are not declaring for UI yet those traditionally Ulster Protestants are still basically 100% behind the union